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Post by carlton43 on Dec 3, 2021 8:12:49 GMT
It is a mere DECEMBER LOCAL AUTHORITY BY-ELECTION and thus of absolutely no consequence whatsover to anyone or to anything at all. Hype! Hype!! But no Hooray. The title of this thread is 'Local Council by-elections 2nd December 2021'. I'm not sure if you were expecting the discussion to be about something else? The results over a period do tend to show elements of a pattern or trend, but even then are unreliable as to more general structural and political demography. It is as it says on the tin local, and thus etched with the independent, the local, the personal and the petty in all senses of that word. Agonizing over percentages and positional placing is like divining from birds entrails or counting the number of angels on a pinhead! It is effectively pointless. And, no, it does not make the thread useless or invalid. But it is for broad sweep trends not obsessive nitpicking. For me, yesterday (I did not stay up) was quite a respectable Conservative set of results after a difficult two months, in the midterm of an 11-year stretch. Now move on. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Dec 3, 2021 8:45:36 GMT
The title of this thread is 'Local Council by-elections 2nd December 2021'. I'm not sure if you were expecting the discussion to be about something else? The results over a period do tend to show elements of a pattern or trend, but even then are unreliable as to more general structural and political demography. It is as it says on the tin local, and thus etched with the independent, the local, the personal and the petty in all senses of that word. A All of which is perfectly well understood by (most) everyone here. Nevertheless that result in Bare and the switching of party positions involved there was interesting and peculiar and it seems quite reasonable for somebody to make that observation on this thread. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 3, 2021 9:00:31 GMT
Stalham (North Norfolk) by-election result: CON: 55.2% (+25.9) LDEM: 37.0% (-11.1) LAB: 7.8% (-0.2) Conservative GAIN from Liberal Democrat. No Grn (-14.6) as prev. Votes cast: 1,013 This seems to confirm the theory that in local by-elections voters react against the party in control of the local authority. They do, plus in Stalham the Conservatives had the most local candidate. |
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Post by owainsutton on Dec 3, 2021 9:29:04 GMT
Highland Council will be streaming the count live tomorrow from 2pm on their various social media accounts. 2pm. Let me guess, they need the morning for the RO to brush up on Gaelic pronunciation. More realistically, it'd be quite irresponsible for them to begin first-thing, if it would be encouraging people to be making multi-hour drives in darkness on insufficient sleep. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 9:32:43 GMT
The local paper has a reporter at the Adur/Worthing counts. She's jhjourno on Twitter if you want to say thank you!
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 9:37:43 GMT
This seems to confirm the theory that in local by-elections voters react against the party in control of the local authority. They do, plus in Stalham the Conservatives had the most local candidate. And young and perhaps keen. These little wards can be swung by one person |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2021 9:44:59 GMT
Not sure that we have had the Whitnash full figures yet Residents 522 Lab 165 Con 43 Green 40 LD 9 Are you sure these are the district results and not the town council ward results? The turnout looks exceptionally low. |
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Post by andrewp on Dec 3, 2021 9:50:49 GMT
Not sure that we have had the Whitnash full figures yet Residents 522 Lab 165 Con 43 Green 40 LD 9 Are you sure these are the district results and not the town council ward results? The turnout looks exceptionally low. Ah yes, you are correct, my apologies. Per Facebook. The district result is Adrian Barton, Residents 835 Lucy Phillips, Labour 431 John Kane, Conservative, 127 Sarah Richards, Green, 88 Trevor Barr, Liberal Democrat, 32 |
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batman
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Post by batman on Dec 3, 2021 10:04:41 GMT
Still waiting for those results from Greater Brighton... both counting this morning. Count in Worthing started at 9.30 I believe |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 10:32:29 GMT
Still waiting for those results from Greater Brighton... both counting this morning. Count in Worthing started at 9.30 I believe Both are being counted at the same place. Regular updates from Local Democracy Reporter Jessica Hubbard, @jhjourno on Twitter - so far both the Conservatives and Greens have expressed their confidence in Marine Ward. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 10:39:54 GMT
both counting this morning. Count in Worthing started at 9.30 I believe Both are being counted at the same place. Regular updates from Local Democracy Reporter Jessica Hubbard, @jhjourno on Twitter - so far both the Conservatives and Greens have expressed their confidence in Marine Ward. The comment from the Green was for Hillside; and he said he was 'hopeful' rather than 'confident'. A Green being confident in Hillside would be interesting! The Tory comment on Marine was 'buoyant', but listening to both him and the Labour candidate, neither comes across as confident of winning. Tories maybe slightly more positive, but it's Ed Crouch, who has a distant acquaintance with telling the truth. Looks like a lower turnout in Hillside, candidates have been gathered already despite starting counting later than Marine |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 10:43:12 GMT
Both are being counted at the same place. Regular updates from Local Democracy Reporter Jessica Hubbard, @jhjourno on Twitter - so far both the Conservatives and Greens have expressed their confidence in Marine Ward. The comment from the Green was for Hillside; and he said he was 'hopeful' rather than 'confident'. A Green being confident in Hillside would be interesting! The Tory comment on Marine was 'buoyant', but listening to both him and the Labour candidate, neither comes across as confident of winning. Tories maybe slightly more positive, but it's Ed Crouch, who has a distant acquaintance with telling the truth. Looks like a lower turnout in Hillside, candidates have been gathered already despite starting counting later than Marine Looks like it would have been a Hill to climb for the Greens. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 10:43:44 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Hillside ward (Adur DC)
Rebecca Allinson (Labour) - 148
Russell Whiting (Green) - 175
Leila Williams (Conservative) - 414
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 10:45:43 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Hillside ward (Adur DC) Rebecca Allinson (Labour) - 148 Russell Whiting (Green) - 175 Leila Williams (Conservative) - 414 |
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Post by iain on Dec 3, 2021 10:46:35 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Hillside ward (Adur DC) Rebecca Allinson (Labour) - 148 Russell Whiting (Green) - 175 Leila Williams (Conservative) - 414 Conservative - 56.2% (-6.0%) Green - 23.7% (+15.8%) Labour - 20.1% (-9.8%) Changes from 2021 |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 10:46:51 GMT
Hillside had 3 rejected ballots, turnout 21.9%. That really is quite good for the Greens there; I guess they went and did some proper work, while Adur Labour were all over in Marine ward!
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 11:13:34 GMT
The recent spate of byelection results in Lancaster DC have one thing in common - they have been bad for the Tories.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 11:20:31 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC)
Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972
Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145
Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112
Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239
Rejected - 9
Turnout - 37.4%
LAB gain
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 11:22:54 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC) Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972 Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145 Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112 Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239 Rejected - 9 Turnout - 37.4% LAB gain To get a turnout like that at this time of year is a fair effort! |
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 11:23:42 GMT
To state the obvious, local by-elections are heavily influenced by local factors - candidate choice, party organisation, local issues, reputation of the council. Yes, there's some reflection of the national picture but turnouts are generally low and one would expect local elements often to overwhelm that backdrop. Glancing through these there are some seemingly odd results (in terms of good Tory performances), probably explained by one or more of the factors I've listed. With just Highland to come, only one of this batch (N Norfolk) fits that description I would have thought. Overall rather worse for them than last week. |
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