Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 3, 2021 11:24:52 GMT
The recent spate of byelection results in Lancaster DC have one thing in common - they have been bad for the Tories. Especially so in the 3 in the NOrth of the district where they should have been competitive. Any reason? Is the county council doing anything particularly unpopular there? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2021 11:25:01 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC) Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972 Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145 Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112 Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239 Rejected - 9 Turnout - 37.4% LAB gain Council now Conservative 17, Labour 17, Lib Dem 2, Independent 1. Labour need two gains in May for control. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 11:27:35 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC) Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972 Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145 Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112 Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239 Rejected - 9 Turnout - 37.4% LAB gain |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 11:37:54 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC) Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972 Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145 Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112 Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239 Rejected - 9 Turnout - 37.4% LAB gain Council now Conservative 17, Labour 17, Lib Dem 2, Independent 1. Labour need two gains in May for control. I would say that with Labour looking to take the remaining Tory seats in Gaisford and Marine (where Labour already hold the other two), Labour are favourites for control next year now. Makes their relationship with the LibDems interesting: 1. they could take control now with LibDem support, but would they want to given they're likely to take sole control in six months; and would the LibDems support them anyway? 2. do Labour target a LibDem seat in Tarring, next May as insurance? if they did, and failed, and also only took one (or neither!) of Gaisford/Marine, then they'd almost certainly have lost the chance of getting LibDem support. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
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Post by iain on Dec 3, 2021 11:46:08 GMT
BY-ELECTION RESULT: Marine ward (#Worthing BC) Syed Ahmed (Conservative) - 972 Sonya Mallin (Green) - 145 Emma Norton (Lib Dem) - 112 Vicki Wells (Labour) - 1,239 Rejected - 9 Turnout - 37.4% LAB gain Labour - 50.2% (+3.6%) Conservative - 39.4% (-3.0%) Green - 5.9% (+0.1%) Lib Dem - 4.5% (0.0%) Again, changes from 2021. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,438
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Post by iain on Dec 3, 2021 11:47:10 GMT
The recent spate of byelection results in Lancaster DC have one thing in common - they have been bad for the Tories. Though the Tories did pretty easily gain a Lib Dem seat in May. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 11:48:25 GMT
To state the obvious, local by-elections are heavily influenced by local factors - candidate choice, party organisation, local issues, reputation of the council. Yes, there's some reflection of the national picture but turnouts are generally low and one would expect local elements often to overwhelm that backdrop. Glancing through these there are some seemingly odd results (in terms of good Tory performances), probably explained by one or more of the factors I've listed. With just Highland to come, only one of this batch (N Norfolk) fits that description I would have thought. Overall rather worse for them than last week. Overall, my model (which gave the Tories a very slightly net positive last week, at +15) gives them -251 without Highland; since the beginning of September, this is the worst week for any party, the second worst being the Tories at -195 on 4th November. So, yes, rather worse! |
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Post by matureleft on Dec 3, 2021 11:50:50 GMT
Council now Conservative 17, Labour 17, Lib Dem 2, Independent 1. Labour need two gains in May for control. I would say that with Labour looking to take the remaining Tory seats in Gaisford and Marine (where Labour already hold the other two), Labour are favourites for control next year now. Makes their relationship with the LibDems interesting: 1. they could take control now with LibDem support, but would they want to given they're likely to take sole control in six months; and would the LibDems support them anyway? 2. do Labour target a LibDem seat in Tarring, next May as insurance? if they did, and failed, and also only took one (or neither!) of Gaisford/Marine, then they'd almost certainly have lost the chance of getting LibDem support. The Tory Gaisford seat is held by the current council leader. Has he a negative or positive local reputation? |
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Post by listener on Dec 3, 2021 11:51:06 GMT
According to the Declaration of Result of Poll, the Conservative vote in Lancaster Bare was 215.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Dec 3, 2021 12:01:50 GMT
I would say that with Labour looking to take the remaining Tory seats in Gaisford and Marine (where Labour already hold the other two), Labour are favourites for control next year now. Makes their relationship with the LibDems interesting: 1. they could take control now with LibDem support, but would they want to given they're likely to take sole control in six months; and would the LibDems support them anyway? 2. do Labour target a LibDem seat in Tarring, next May as insurance? if they did, and failed, and also only took one (or neither!) of Gaisford/Marine, then they'd almost certainly have lost the chance of getting LibDem support. The Tory Gaisford seat is held by the current council leader. Has he a negative or positive local reputation? Generally quite negative, the local residents association hates him. But I loathe and despise him so I might be biased! Probably academic anyway, as the word is he's moving wards to a safer seat. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2021 12:02:23 GMT
The recent spate of byelection results in Lancaster DC have one thing in common - they have been bad for the Tories. Though the Tories did pretty easily gain a Lib Dem seat in May. They were gaining seats everywhere in May tbf  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Dec 3, 2021 14:10:10 GMT
If anyone is waiting for the Highland result, the count was due to start at Lochaber High School at 2 p.m.
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2021 14:15:31 GMT
The recent spate of byelection results in Lancaster DC have one thing in common - they have been bad for the Tories. Though the Tories did pretty easily gain a Lib Dem seat in May. I am equally intrigued by the collapse of the Morecambe Bay Independents (MBI). The 2019 result for Morecambe Town Council was 21 MBI, 3 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat and 1 Renew. Since August the Liberal Democrats have won all 4 Town Council by-elections with the MBI coming last in all 4, including a 2 horse race. The Bare vacancy occurred on 23 May this year following the death of the previous Councillor. There was a Town Council by-election for part of the ward on 19 August. All suggests some underlying problems not yet explained. |
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 3, 2021 14:21:43 GMT
Though the Tories did pretty easily gain a Lib Dem seat in May. I am equally intrigued by the collapse of the Morecambe Bay Independents (MBI). The 2019 result for Morecambe Town Council was 21 MBI, 3 Labour, 1 Liberal Democrat and 1 Renew. Since August the Liberal Democrats have won all 4 Town Council by-elections with the MBI coming last in all 4, including a 2 horse race. The Bare vacancy occurred on 23 May this year following the death of the previous Councillor. There was a Town Council by-election for part of the ward on 19 August. All suggests some underlying problems not yet explained. It is the sort of thing that would happen if a driving force for the MBI moved on and a driving force for the Lib Dems suddenly appeared. Could all be based around two individuals.. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 14:36:00 GMT
If anyone is waiting for the Highland result, the count was due to start at Lochaber High School at 2 p.m. As we mentioned last night it’s being live-streamed on the Council’s Twitter, Facebook and YouTube pages. Twitter: YouTube: Facebook: fb.watch/9FVdK2hPpM/ |
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ricmk
Lib Dem
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Post by ricmk on Dec 3, 2021 14:46:14 GMT
Looking at those screens on the youtube feed, there's a bar chart with 7 entries.
There are 7 candidates in that election. Is that a first round result? If so the biggest bar (by a mile) is the second, and way behind is the sixth.
If that's in alpha order of candidates, it's a huge SNP lead over Conservative, with the others nowhere.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 3, 2021 14:53:36 GMT
25.6% turnout.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Dec 3, 2021 14:56:29 GMT
Looking at those screens on the youtube feed, there's a bar chart with 7 entries. There are 7 candidates in that election. Is that a first round result? If so the biggest bar (by a mile) is the second, and way behind is the sixth. If that's in alpha order of candidates, it's a huge SNP lead over Conservative, with the others nowhere. I don’t think so as they’ve only just Tweeted the turnout, which wouldn’t suggest a result was imminent. They may be the graphics waiting for data. |
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Post by middleenglander on Dec 3, 2021 15:04:27 GMT
2,307 total votes compared to 4,162 in 2017 - so barely 55% of last time. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 3, 2021 15:08:06 GMT
2,307 total votes compared to 4,162 in 2017 - so barely 55% of last time. The Highlands in December for a seat that will be contested again in May. Hardly a surprise? |
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