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Post by middleenglander on Apr 27, 2024 14:23:28 GMT
As usual, Ballot Box Scotland has the numbers: Stage 4 was Con 1997, SNP 1467. Green transfers: SNP 62, Lib Dem 42, Lab 32, Con 9, non transferable 31. I think that is a bit worse for the SNP than usual So it started with a Conservative majority of 513 and finished as 530. Most of the Scottish by-elections are similar in this respect and on the few occasions where there is ultimately a different result this can be put down to the "random" choice of those who bother to select the nth choice out of n candidates. And to have adopted this once fashionable electoral idea we have large wards / divisions where local representation is watered down. This is only one example of why "Politics" is broken in a very, very big way. So I will again sign off.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 20, 2023 15:35:24 GMT
There are surprising, not obvious similarities between 5 of the last 6 by-elections. Firstly consider the turnout. Constituency | 2023 Turnout | 2019 Turnout | Difference | 2023 total votes | 2019 total votes | Difference | Selby & Ainsty | 44.8% | 72.0% | -27.2% | 35,807 | 56,418 | -20,611 | Somerton & Frome | 44.2% | 75.6% | -31.4% | 38,788 | 64,896 | -26,108 | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | 46.2% | 68.5% | -22.3% | 30,925 | 48,187 | -17,262 | Rutherglen & Hamiton West | 37.2% | 66.5% | -29.3% | 30,477 | 53,794 | -23,317 | Mid Bedfordshire | 44.1% | 76.7% | -32.4% | 40,720
| 64,717 | -23,997 | Tamworth | 35.9% | -64.3% | -28.4% | 25,586
| 46,056 | -20,470 | Total |
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| 202,303 | 334,068 | -131,765 |
The total number of votes cast in the 6 by-elections was over 130,000 fewer, or only around 60%, of that in the 2019 General Election. Then the difference by party. Constituency | Conservative | Labour | SNP | Liberal Democrat | Green | Reform / Reclaim | Other | Total | Selby & Ainsty | -21,700 | +2,598 | - | -3,654 | +15 | +1,332 | +798 | -20,611 | Somerton & Frome | -26,051 | -7,345 | - | +4,170 | +649 | +1,303 | +1,166 | -26,108 | Rutherglen & Hamilton West | -6,862 | -700 | -15,376 | -1,896 | +601 | +403 | +513 | -23,317 | Mid Bedfordshire | -26,012 | -156 | - | +1,249 | -1,746 | +1,487 | +1,181 | -23,997 | Tamworth | -20,139 | +811 | - | -2,009 | -518 | +1,373 | +12 | -20,470 | Sub-total | -100,764 | -4,792 | -15,376 | -2,140 | -999 | +5,898 | +3,670 | -114,503 | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | -11,386 | -4,671 | - | -2,500 | -197 | +714 | +778 | -17,262 | Total | -112,150 | -9,463 | -15,376 | -4,640 | -1,196 | +6,612 | 4,448 | -131,765 |
Across all 6 by-elections the 5 larger parties all polled fewer votes than during the 2019 General Election but with Reform / Reclaim (from nothing) and net Others polling some 11,000 more votes (achieving a 5½% share) than in 2019. Then consider grouping the two parties of Government (Conservative and SNP) and Labour / Liberal Democrat for the 5 seats that changed hands. Constituency / vote change | Conservative | SNP | Conservative + SNP | Total vote change | Con +SNP / Total vote change | Labour + Liberal Democrat | All Others | Selby & Ainsty | -21,700 |
| -21,700 | -20,611 | 105% | -1,056 | +2,130 | Somerton & Frome
| -26,051 |
| -26,051 | -26,108 | 100% | -3,175 | +2,469 | Rutherglen & Hamiton West | -6,862 | -15,376 | -22,238 | -23,317 | 95% | -2,596 | +916 | Mid Bedfordshire | -26,012 |
| -26,012 | -23,997 | 108% | +1,093 | +2,668 | Tamworth | -20,139 |
| -20,139 | -20,470 | 98% | -1,198 | +1,385 | Total | -100,764 | -15,376 | -116,140 | -114,503 | 101% | -6,932 | +9,568 |
There is little indication that Conservative voters (and SNP in Rutherglen & Hamilton West) switched to other parties in large numbers. Over 65% of previous Conservatives went on "strike" and stayed at home, except in Uxbridge & South Ruislip, where there was something to vote against, when it was around 45%. Sunak and Hunt's task is to somehow enthuse previous Conservative voters to turn out next year.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 18:33:11 GMT
The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely. The Tories were not 'well in the lead' in most of the February 1974 campaign - but were ahead. However, the lead was generally in the range of 1% - 6%. I recall one poll issued on a Sunday, whilst I was driving back to Leeds, had the Conservatives in the lead in Scotland - then a surprising finding!!
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 17:58:42 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. ] Or like February 1974 which is much more likely. The Conservatives were well in the lead (according to the opinion polls and the popular commentariat) ahead of the February 1974 election. That is until Heath started to give in to the miners when it evaporated. In 1970 Labour were similarly well in the lead for much of the campaign with many surprised at the actual result. I think 1992 could, given the caveats expressed, be the more likely.
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 21, 2023 17:24:50 GMT
I return briefly to highlight what I see as the conclusions from last night's results. Firstly the figures comparing 2023 to 2019:
| Selby & Ainsty | Somerton & Frome | Uxbridge & Ruislip South | 2023 turnout | 44.8% | 44.2% | 46.3% | 2019 turnout | 72.0% | 75.6% | 68.5% | Change in turnout | -27.2% | -31.4% | -17.3% | Change in number of votes |
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| - Conservative | -21,700 | -26,051 | -11,386 | - Labour | +2,598 | -7,345 | -4,671 | - Liberal Democrat | -3,654 | +4,170 | -2,500 | - Labour + Liberal Democrat | -1,056 | -3,175 | -7,171 | - Green | +15 | +649 | -197 | - sub-total | -22,741 | -28,577 | -18,754 | - others contesting both 2023 and 2019 | -397 | - | -194 | - others contesting 2019 but not 2023 | - | - | -102 | - Reform / Reclaim in 2023 | 1,332 | 1,303 | 714 | - others in 2023 | 1,195 | 1,166 | 1,074 | Total change in number of votes | -20,611 | -26,108 | -17,262 | |
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| Reduced Conservative vote / total change in votes | 105% | 99.8% | 66% |
I suggest Selby & Ainsty and Somerton & Frome show very similar characteristics if Labour and the Liberal Democrat were to be interchanged. These two results are almost entirely explained by a "strike" of Conservative voters. There is every indication they just stayed at home with little to suggest that many voted for other parties, certainly not Labour / Liberal Democrat in any great number. On the other hand Uxbridge and Ruislip South appears to be more like an unremarkable mid-term election where the turnout is well down with the governing party losing more votes than the uninspiring opposition. The ULEZ may well have been the catalyst to have given this overall result. The strategic requirement for the Conservatives is simple - to inspire their supporters to turnout on election day. This could be considered unlikely to occur by adopting a "steady as she goes" policy. Uxbridge & Ruislip South does show there is still some mileage to be gained from "a fear of what the opposition will do". But promises of "jam tomorrow" are highly unlikely to be sufficient to enthuse large numbers of Conservative voters. Nevertheless if the Conservatives get their act together, and that may be a very big if, then a result more like 1992 rather than 1997 is certainly possible in 2024.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2022 15:43:38 GMT
Ashfield: Hucknall Central - Ashfield Independent hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Ashfield Independent | 710 | 54.5% | +17.9% | +17.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 397 | 30.5% | +0.8% | +0.6% | -7.4% | -8.7% | Conservative | 195 | 15.0% | -3.9% | -2.8% | -10.9% | -9.3% | UKIP |
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| -14.8% | -15.2% | -23.9% | -23.1% | Hucknall First |
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| -6.7% | -7.2% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.7% | -6.3% | Total votes | 1,302 |
| 69% | 71% | 36% | 40% |
Swing: Labour to Ashfield Independent 8½% since 2019 Council now: 28 Ashfield Independent, 3 Conservative, 2 Labour, 2 Independent (elected as Ashfield Independent) Bassetlaw: Sutton - Labour gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B votes | since 2019 | since 2015 | Labour | 301 | 55.9% | +35.7% | +44.0% | +30.2% | Conservative | 224 | 41.6% | -22.0% | +15.3% | -24.3% | Liberal Democrat | 13 | 2.4% | -13.7% | from nowhere | -5.9% | Independent |
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| -61.7% |
| Total votes | 538 |
| 81% | 87% | 46% |
Swing: if particularly meaningful Conservative to Labour 28¾% since 2021 by-election and 27¼% since 2015 Council now: 35 Labour, 6 Conservative, 6 Independent, 1 Liberal Democrat Isle of Wight: Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | Liberal Democrat | 526 | 53.4% | +23.5% | Conservative | 239 | 24.3% | -19.3% | Green | 153 | 15.5% | -11.0% | Vectis | 36 | 3.7% | from nowhere | Labour | 31 | 3.1% | from nowhere | Row 7 column 1 | 985 |
| 78% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 21½ Since 2021 Council now: 17 Conservative, 17 Alliance Group, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Labour, 1 Independent Labour, 1 Vectis Sefton: Linacre - Labour hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B votes | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | Labour | 636 | 81.5% | +5.4% | -7.3% | +13.0% | +0.4% | No Description | 144 | 18.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Ford |
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| -17.3% |
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| Conservative |
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| -6.6% | -11.2% | -5.8% | -5.6% | Independent Brennan |
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| -15.7% |
| Liberal Democrat |
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| -6.2% | -4.0% | Socialist |
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| -3.8% | -3.6% | Green |
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| -5.7% | Total votes | 780 |
| 45% | 44% | 45% | 41% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 46 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat & Progressive Alliance, 5 Conservative, 3 Community Independents, 2 Southport Councillors, 2 Independent Warrington: Rixton & Woolston - Conservative hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | Conservative | 648 | 42.9% | +2.7% | +3.6% | +23.7% | +24.6% | Labour | 645 | 42.7% | +5.5% | +6.1% | -2.3% | -2.1% | Liberal Democrat | 219 | 14.5% | +5.0% | +4.4% | +8.7% | +8.1% | Independent |
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| -13.2% | -14.1% |
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| -30.2% | -30.6% | Total votes | 1,512 |
| 49% | 52% | 52% | 58% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 1½% / 1¼% since 2021 but if particularly meaningful Labour to Conservative 13% / 13½% since 2016 Council now: 36 Labour, 10 Conservative, 8 Liberal Democrat, 4 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 25, 2022 14:24:28 GMT
Considering the baseline years, the contrast between Bassetlaw and Warrington is stark. In Bassetlaw there was a 28% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2019. At the time of the 2019 locals, Lab were approx 5% ahead in the national polls. A fantastic Labour result, probably their best for a long time.. In Warrington there was a 1.4% swing to Labour from a baseline of 2021. At the time of the 2021 locals, the Cons were approximately 9% ahead in the national polls. A very good Con result, one of their best for a while. Electorate for Bassetlaw: Sutton is circa 1,666. The ward is a classic example of where the candidates are extremely important - see numerous postings going back a few years - and any extrapolation is even more dubious than normal. Will try and do the usual analyses in the next day or two but have a number of important issues to deal with.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 22, 2022 18:31:51 GMT
The late Mark Senior once said of a by-election that "the Liberal Democrats would have easily won the seat if they had stood a candidate". Using that logic there are infinite variations to play with.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2022 0:05:23 GMT
Oldham: Hollinwood - Labour hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | Labour | 718 | 44.8% | -14.1% | -7.7% | -11.4% | -26.8% | -29.1% | Conservative | 639 | 39.8% | +21.6% | +15.6% | +32.9% | +18.7% | +20.8% | Independent | 152 | 9.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | National Housing | 59 | 3.7% | -6.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 36 | 2.2% | -6.6% | -2.9% | -4.4% | -5.0% | -4.8% | Northern Heart |
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| -3.9% |
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| Proud of Oldham |
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| -18.3% |
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| UKIP |
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| -25.9% |
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| Green |
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| -4.3% |
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| Total votes | 1,604 |
| 94% | 81% | 91% | 96% | 99% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 17¾% since May, 11¾% since 2021, 22¼% since 2019 and 22¾% / 25% since 2018 Council now: 35 Labour, 9 Conservative, 9 Liberal Democrat, 5 Failsworth Independent, 2 Independent Rhondda Cynon Taf: Abercynon - Labour hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | Labour | 520 | 80.0% | +18.7% | +19.6% | +31.7% | +31.1% | Conservative | 56 | 8.6% | -1.7% | -1.9% | -0.4% | +1.3% | Plaid Cymru | 56 | 8.6% | -7.0% | -7.4% | -1.5% | -2.1% | Green | 18 | 2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -4.8% | -5.3% | Propel |
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| -12.8% | -13.1% |
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| Cynon Valley |
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| -16.8% | -17.8% | UKIP |
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| -8.1% | -7.3% | Total votes | 650 |
| 43% | 44% | 37% | 39% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 59 Labour, 6 Plaid Cymru, 6 Independent, 2 Conservative Shetland: Shetland West - Independent hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | Independent Robinson | 375 | 76.4% | +59.5% | Green | 67 | 13.6% | +4.5% | SNP | 49 | 10.0% | +2.2% | Independent Boxwell |
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| -39.3% | Independent Leask |
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| -17.8% | Independent Holt |
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| -5.7% | Independent Tinkler |
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| -2.8% | Independent Fraser |
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| -0.7% | Total votes | 491 |
| 65% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 20 Independent, 1 Labour, 1 SNP, 1 Green Suffolk: Beccles - Green hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2017 "top" | since 2017 "average" | Green | 2,114 | 70.5% | +18.5% | +19.5% | +29.2% | +31.2% | Conservative | 624 | 20.8% | -19.7% | -20.1% | -21.5% | -24.4% | Labour | 260 | 8.7% | +1.2% | +0.7% | -1.5% | -1.2% | UKIP |
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| -4.2% | -4.4% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -2.0% | -2.1% | Total vote | 2,998 |
| 60% | 65% | 57% | 63% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 19% / 19¾% since 2021 and 25½% / 27¾% since 2017 Council now: 55 Conservative, 9 Green, 5 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 West Suffolk Independent, 1 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 19, 2022 0:05:12 GMT
Blackburn with Darwen: Darwen South - Labour gain from Conservative
Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | Labour | 569 | 44.9% | +6.6% | +18.4% | +9.2% | +15.6% | +15.4% | Conservative | 562 | 44.3% | -1.8% | -9.7% | -7.9% | +0.5% | +1.3% | Liberal Democrat | 137 | 10.8% | -4.9% | -8.7% | from nowhere | -16.1% | -16.7% | For Britain |
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| -12.1% |
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| Total votes | 1,268 |
| 66% | 66% | 70% | 59% | 62% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 4¼% since May, 14% since 2021, 8½% since 2109 and 7¼% / 7% since 2018 Council now: 37 Labour, 13 Conservative, 1 Liberal Democrat Blackpool: Greenlands - Labour gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 550 | 48.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +6.8% | +7.2% | Conservative | 518 | 45.2% | -6.6% | -6.5% | +8.8% | +9.0% | Liberal Democrat | 77 | 6.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -22.3% | -22.9% | Total votes | 1,145 |
| 78% | 80% | 37% | 38% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 3¼% since 2019 but Labour to Conservative 1% since 2015 Council now 20 Labour, 15 Conservative, 4 Non-aligned Independent, 3 Blackpool Independent Bolsover: Pinxton - Labour hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 B | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 376 | 63.3% | +13.9% | +24.3% | +19.9% | +1.8% | +4.3% | Conservative | 218 | 36.7% | +3.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent |
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| -15.6% |
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| Liberal Democrat |
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| -1.6% | -8.2% | -9.5% |
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| -52.8% | -47.1% | -38.5% | -41.0% | Total votes | 594 |
| 66% | 77% | 89% | 38% | 41% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 5¼% since 2021 by-election otherwise not meaningful Council now: 20 Labour, 10 Independent Group, 4 Community Independent, 3 Conservative Glasgow: Linn - Labour hold based on first preference votes Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2017 | Labour | 2,227 | 43.4% | +11.4% | +16.4% | SNP | 1,702 | 33.2% | -0.2% | -2.4% | Green | 409 | 8.0% | +1.9% | +4.7% | Conservative | 327 | 6.4% | -5.1% | -9.5% | Liberal Democrat | 294 | 5.7% | -0.6% | -2.0% | Alba | 90 | 1.8% | +0.5% | from nowhere | Scottish Socialist | 46 | 0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 19 | 0.4% | from nowhere | -0.3% | Freedom Alliance | 18 | 0.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | No Description |
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| -9.4% |
| Independent |
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| -8.5% | Independent |
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| -0.8% | Solidarity |
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| -0.8% | Total votes | 5,132 |
| 57% | 58% |
Swing: SNP to Labour 5¾% since May and 9½% since 2017
Council now: 37 SNP, 36 Labour, 10 Green, 2 Conservative
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 11, 2022 16:01:30 GMT
East Devon: Newton Poppleford & Harpford - Independent gain from Independent East Devon AllianceParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 | since 2015 | since 2011 | Independent | 560 | 67.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Labour | 162 | 19.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere |
| Conservative | 113 | 13.5% | -0.3% | -25.3% | unopposed | Independent East Devon Alliance |
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| -86.2% | -61.1% |
| Total votes | 835 |
| 101% | 66% | n / a |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 22 Conservative, 15 Independent, 12 Independent East Devon Alliance, 7 Liberal Democrat, 2 Labour, 2 Green Kingston-upon-Thames: Green Lane & St James - Independent Residents Group gain from Liberal DemocratParty | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | Independent Residents Group | 855 | 46.3% | +9.0% | +9.2% | Liberal Democrat | 647 | 35.1% | -3.8% | -4.9% | Labour | 265 | 14.4% | +3.3% | +3.6% | Conservative | 78 | 4.2% | -8.4% | -7.9% | Total votes | 1,845 |
| 81% | 85% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Independent Residents Group 6½% / 7% since May Council now: 43 Liberal Democrat, 3 Conservative, 2 Independent Residents Group South Kesteven: Bourne East - Conservative hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 310 | 43.5% | +5.6% | +8.0% | -1.5% | -1.2% | Labour | 154 | 21.6% | +5.7% | +5.1% | -5.4% | -5.5% | Independent | 120 | 16.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 78 | 11.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 50 | 7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Elected Independent |
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| -46.1% | -47.9% |
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| UKIP |
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| -27.9% | -28.1% | Total votes | 712 |
| 59% | 61% | 28% | 28% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 39 Conservative, 7 Independent, 3 South Kesteven Alliance, 2 Unaligned Independent, 2 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 vacancy South Kesteven: Grantham St Wulframs - Conservative hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 359 | 39.2% | -20.6% | -19.5% | -12.3% | -11.5% | Independent | 307 | 33.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 174 | 19.0% | +2.1% | +1.5% | -4.4% | -4.6% | Green | 75 | 8.2% | -15.1% | -15.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -25.1% | -25.7% | Total votes |
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| 76% | 80% | 33% | 34% |
Swing: not meaningful
Council now: 39 Conservative, 7 Independent, 3 South Kesteven Alliance, 2 Unaligned Independent, 2 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 vacancy
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 11, 2022 16:00:05 GMT
Braintree: Braintree South - Labour gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 372 | 45.2% | +15.6% | +15.7% | +5.6% | +3.1% | Conservative | 317 | 38.5% | -10.3% | -10.3% | -21.9% | -19.4% | Green | 134 | 16.3% | -5.2% | -5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 823 |
| 75% | 75% | 35% | 37% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 13% since 2019 and 13¾% / 11¼% since 2015 Council now: 33 Conservative, 6 Green, 4 Halstead Residents, 3 Labour, 3 Independent Braintree: Coggeshall - Independent hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Independent | 576 | 43.5% | -17.1% | -16.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 451 | 34.1% | +6.1% | +4.9% | -14.8% | -13.2% | Labour | 297 | 22.4% | +11.0% | +11.2% | +3.9% | +4.5% | UKIP |
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| -20.0% | -21.3% | Green |
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| -12.7% | -13.5% | Total votes | 1,324 |
| 66% | 70% | 36% | 38% |
Swing: if meaningful Independent to Conservative 11½% / 10½% since 2019 Council now: 33 Conservative, 6 Green, 4 Halstead Residents, 3 Labour, 3 Independent Broxtowe: Greasley - Conservative hold Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2016 B | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 637 | 47.7% | -16.1% | -16.7% | -1.1% | -0.3% | +0.1% | Labour | 555 | 41.6% | +5.4% | +6.0% | +19.3% | +15.8% | +15.1% | Liberal Democrat | 143 | 10.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.0% | +4.2% | +4.7% | UKIP |
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| -17.1% | -19.7% | -20.0% | Total votes | 1,335 |
| 79% | 84% | 99% | 33% | 36% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 11% / 11¼% since 2019, 10¼% since 2016 by-election and 8% / 7½% since 2015
Council now: 19 Conservative, 14 Labour, 7 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent, 1 Ashfield Independent
Burnley: Rosehill with Burnley Wood - Labour gain from Conservative
Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2019 B | since 2018 | Labour | 372 | 39.4% | +15.8% | +8.5% | +16.6% | +12.0% | +5.2% | Liberal Democrat | 363 | 38.4% | -17.8% | +9.9% | -3.2% | +0.9% | -10.1% | Conservative | 123 | 13.0% | -2.1% | -18.6% | +3.7% | +0.4% | = | Green | 87 | 9.2% | +4.1% | +0.2% | +3.1% | +3.6% | +4.9% | Resident * |
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| -20.3% | -16.9% |
| Total votes | 945 |
| 69% | 71% | 74% | 104% | 66% |
* Burnley & Padiham Independent Swing: Liberal Democrat to Labour 16¾% since May, 10% since 2019, 5½% since 2019 by-election and 7½% since 2018 2021 swing Conservative to Labour 13½% but not considered particularly meaningful Council now: 19 Labour, 8 Liberal Democrat, 6 Conservative, 6 Green, 5 Burnley & Padiham Independent, 1 Independent Cannock Chase: Cannock West - Conservative hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 | since 2019 | since 2018 | Conservative | 688 | 55.4% | -4.5% | -13.9% | -7.4% | -14.0% | Labour | 430 | 34.6% | +7.1% | +16.2% | +13.8% | +10.6% | Green | 124 | 10.0% | +4.5% | +5.0% | -6.4% | +3.4% | Chase Community Independent |
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| -7.1% | -7.2% |
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| Total votes | 1,242 |
| 65% | 58% | 71% | 65% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 5¾% since May, 15% since 2021, 10½% since 2019 and 12¼% since 2018 Council now: 24 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Chase Community Independent, 2 Liberal Democrat, 2 Green, 1 Independent
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 11, 2022 0:12:26 GMT
I have been otherwise engaged tonight on some accounts but will try to catch up with the by-election results before retiring.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 9, 2022 12:00:03 GMT
The Association of Electoral Administrators reckon it might, however, affect the retirement date for councillors - which then has an impact on the six-month rule. Which brings us back on-topic for this thread. Just been informed in an errant email from our former District Council that the "6 month rule" came into effect on 08 November.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 5, 2022 1:17:56 GMT
Since it's now the evening of 4 November, I suppose the six month rule now applies, and so any future vacancies in councils with elections in 2023 (i.e. most of them) will not be filled until then. I also think my description of the application of the six month rule for the councils set to be abolished is slightly incorrect - for the vacancies that arose before 1 October, byelections could still be called, they just very likely won't be. There is also provision for byelections to occur if more than one third of the seats in the council become vacant. I think there are still a couple of days until the 6 month rule kicks in. It is 6 months before the term of the Councillors elected in 2019 ends which is normally Monday. However, I am never sure whether it is midnight Sunday or midnight Monday. However, as the Coronation is planned for Saturday 06 May, will the elections on Thursday 04 be delayed thereby affecting the "6 month" rule. In some years counts extend into the weekend but ought to be avoided by careful planning. Maybe more councils will count on the night. What if a Bank Holiday is declared on the Friday or Monday? Of the current 16 known vacancies where an election has not been called, 12 are seats due to be contested in May and another 2 are in wards where there will also be an election that day and therefore potential "double" contests.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 5, 2022 0:18:53 GMT
Council now: 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 3 Independent, 1 Conservative Non-aligned (elected Conservative), 1 Green Just to add that there were three Labour councillors elected in Moray in May as well. Thanks, now corrected.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 4, 2022 12:58:47 GMT
There is a Conservative defence tonight in the St. Paul's ward of Salisbury City, following the sad death of Mary Webb (Con). The city council elections on 6 May 2021 were fought on new ward boundaries and resulted in a hung council - Con 11, Lib Dem 6, Lab 6, Independent 1 The by-election on 14 July 2022 in Harnham West ward, caused by the resignation of Paul Cunningham (Con), was held by Eleanor Wills (Con) - so the council composition is unchanged. St. Paul's ward (previous boundaries) 4 June 2009 - Independent 467, Con 426, Lib Dem 408/397/335, Lab 398/375/265, BNP 89 - 1 Ind, 1 Con and 1 Lib Dem elected 3 May 2013 - Con 418/376, Independent 395, Lab 355/332/286, Green Party 335, Lib Dem 233/143 - 2 Con and 1 Ind elected 5 May 2017 - Con 652/542/488, Lab 385/326, Lib Dem 366/263/218, Green Party 330, Independent 326 - 3 Con elected St. Paul's ward (current boundaries) 6 May 2021 - Lib Dem 1111/577/511, Con 559/417/362, Green Party 404/372/236, Lab 314, No Description 154 - 2 Lib Dem and 1 Con elected I think the figures for 2021 are not correct.
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 4, 2022 12:40:07 GMT
Croydon: Selsdon Vales & Forestvale - Conservative hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 "top" | since 2022 "average" | since 2018 "top" | since 2018 "average" | Conservative | 983 | 46.3% | -21.2% | -19.3% | -15.4% | -15.7% | Green | 530 | 24.9% | +8.8% | +8.0% | +17.8% | +18.4% | Labour | 372 | 17.5% | +1.0% | = | -2.7% | -2.9% | Independent Pelling | 168 | 7.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 72 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -2.2% | -2.2% | UKIP |
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| -5.5% | -5.5% | Total votes | 2,125 |
| 73% | 80% | 66% | 67% |
Swing: Conservative to Green 15% / 13¾% since May and 16½% / 17% since 2018 Council now 34 Labour, 33 Conservative plus Executive Mayor, 2 Green. 1 Liberal Democrat Lichfield: Chasetown - Labour gain from Conservative
Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2019 "top" | since 2019 "average" | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 318 | 73.3% | +15.2% | +19.0% | +40.7% | +38.8% | Conservative | 116 | 26.7% | -15.2% | -19.0% | -9.4% | -5.0% | UKIP |
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| -31.3% | -33.8% | Total votes | 434 |
| 64% | 70% | 26% | 28% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¼% / 19% since 2019 and 25% / 22% since 2015 Council: 33 Conservative, 11 Labour, 2 Independent (1 elected Conservative), 1 Liberal Democrat Moray: Buckie - SNP gain from Liberal Democratbased on first preferencesParty | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | 2022 result | since 2017 | SNP | 1,172 | 48.9% | unopposed | +4.6% | Conservative | 879 | 36.7% | unopposed | +2.3% | Labour | 239 | 10.0% |
| from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 67 | 2.8% | unopposed | from nowhere | No Description | 38 | 1.6% |
| from nowhere | Independent |
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| -21.4% | Total votes | 2,395 |
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| 76% |
Swing: Conservative to SNP 1% since 2017 Council now: 9 Conservative, 9 SNP, 3 Labour, 3 Independent, 1 Conservative Non-aligned (elected Conservative), 1 Green Nottinghamshire: Eastwood - Independent gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | Independent | 1,223 | 43.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 1,182 | 41.7% | -0.1% | +18.2% | Conservative | 431 | 15.2% | -31.2% | -23.3% | Liberal Democrat |
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| -6.9% | -28.1% | Green |
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| -5.0% | -2.7% | UKIP |
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| -7.1% | Total votes | 2,836 |
| 95% | 93% |
Swing: not meaningful Council now: 35 Conservative, 15 Labour, 11 Ashfield Independent, 4 Independent (1 elected Conservative), 1 Liberal Democrat South Cambridgeshire: Longstanton - Conservative gain one seat, Liberal Democrat holds one seat Party | 2022B votes top candidate | 2022 B votes second candidate | 2022 B votes average | 2022 B share top candidate | 2022 B share average | since 2022 top v top | since 2018 top v top | Liberal Democrat | 578 | 534 | 556 | 26.9% | 28.9% | -39.3% | -19.7% | Conservative | 566 | 394 | 480 | 26.4% | 25.0% | +5.2% | -12.4% | Independent | 422 |
| 422 | 19.7% | 21.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 411 | 266
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| 19.2% | 17.6% | +6.6% | +10.4% | Green | 169 | 85 | 127 | 7.9% | 6.6% | from nowhere | +2.0% | Total votes | 2,146 | 1,279 | 1,924 |
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| 107% | 120% |
Swing: Liberal Democrat to Conservative 22¼% since May and 3¾% since 2018 based on top candidate against top candidate and Liberal Democrat to Conservative 21% since May and 2½%since 2018 based on average vote against average vote Council now: 35 Liberal Democrat, 9 Conservative, 1 Independent (elected as Liberal Democrat) Wiltshire: Salisbury St Pauls - Liberal Democrat gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | Liberal Democrat | 813 | 64.4% | +34.3% | Labour | 237 | 18.8% | -3.1% | Conservative | 213 | 16.9% | -15.4% | Green |
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| -15.9% | Total votes | 1,263 |
| 88% |
Swing: Conservative to Liberal Democrat 25% since 2021 Council now: 60 Conservative, 28 Liberal Democrat, 7 Independent, 3 Labour
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 29, 2022 8:54:24 GMT
I don't think there is a vacancy in the Mablethorpe ward of East Lindsey. Claire Arnold is still listed as a councillor and the vacancies section of the website is showing no district vacancies, only parish vacancies. There's something odd going on with this one - she definitely was removed at one point, and Boothroyd's blog specified that it was caused by her resignation. I agree that given she is now back in the list of councillors and no notice if vacancy has been published, there probably is in fact no vacancy. She has also been attending meetings according to minutes since she had supposedly resigned.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 28, 2022 10:43:41 GMT
Derbyshire: Long Eaton - Labour gain from ConservativeParty | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | since 2013 | Labour | 1,104 | 51.1% | +15.0% | +11.0% | +5.4% | Conservative | 723 | 33.5% | -16.5% | -10.7% | +1.1% | Liberal Democrat | 239 | 11.1% | +5.0% | +7.0% | +5.7% | Green | 94 | 4.4% | -3.5% | +0.2% | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -6.3% | -16.6% | Independent |
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| -1.1% |
| Total votes | 1,260 |
| 64% | 65% | 71% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¾% since 2021, 10¾% since 2017 and 2¼% since 2013 Council now: 43 Conservative, 15 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 Independent Sandwell: Wednesbury South - Labour hold Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2019 | since 2018 | Labour | 854
| 51.3% | -6.3% | -2.2% | +0.9% | -4.2% | -14.7% | Conservative | 654 | 39.3% | -3.1% | +0.7% | -1.4% | +21.2% | +5.3% | Liberal Democrat | 77 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 56 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC | 23 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Reform |
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| -4.8% | -5.4% |
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| -3.1% | -3.6% |
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| -26.4% |
| Total votes | 1,664 |
| 68% | 56% | 64% | 74% | 70% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 1½% since May, 1½% since 2021 "top", 12¾% if meaningful since 2019 and 10% since 2018 - but Conservative to Labour 1¼% since 2021 "average" when Conservative gained the second seat Council now: 61 Labour, 10 Conservative, 1 Sandwell Together (elected as Labour) This was about to be posted last night when our broadband went down and all was lost.
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