Local Council by-elections 27th October 2022

[Tony Otim]

DERBYSHIRE CC; Long Eaton (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Rachel (Liberal Democrat)
BRYAN, Joel Martin (Labour)
DUNN, Ashley Christopher James (Green)
PAGE, Chris (Conservative)

2021: Con 1685; Lab 1215; Grn 265; LD 204
2017: Con 1469; Lab 1334; UKIP 209; Grn 139; LD 136; Ind 38
2013: Lab 1384; Con 978; UKIP 503; LD 161

Rachel Allen was the Lib Dem candidate here last May, and has also contested Long Eaton Central ward (Erewash DC) on at least 2 previous occasions. Chris Page has previously contested Nottingham Road ward (which is the other ward making up this division) for the Conservatives in 2019.

Current Council: Con 43; Lab 14; LD 4; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



SANDWELL MBC; Wednesbury South (Lab resigned)
Candidates:
BIBI, Fajli (Conservative)
CHIDLEY, Jenny (Labour)
KNOX, Gareth (TUSC)
LALL, Manjit Singh (Liberal Democrat)
REDDING, Mark Nicholas (Green)

2022: Lab 1409; Con 1036
2021: Lab 1578, 1032; Con 1137, 970; RefUK 140; Workers Party 92
2019: Lab 1243; Ind 590; Con 405
2018: Lab 1566; Con 807
2016: Lab 1481; UKIP 584; Con 446
2015: Lab 2769; UKIP 1511; Con 1021
2014: Lab 1364;UKIP 1091; Con 427
2012: Lab 1752; Con 590
2011: Lab 2372; Con 912
2010: Lab 2758; Con 1841; BNP 798
Oct 09by: Lab 1006; Con 946; LD 168; Grn 109
2008: Con 1215; Lab 1144; BNP 467; Grn 151
2007: Lab 1365; Con 996; BNP 798; LD 198
2006: Lab 1256; BNP 886; Con 822; LD 222
2004: Lab 1522, 1327, 1301; Con 1096, 1015, 841; LD 493

Vacancy is for the 2021-2024 term. The Conservative elected in 2021 was re-elected this year for Labour.

Current Council: Lab 60; Con 10; Sandwell Together 1; 1 vacancy

[lackeroftalent]

Oct 3, 2022 13:58:56 GMT Tony Otim said:

DERBYSHIRE CC; Long Eaton (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Rachel (Liberal Democrat)
BRYAN, Joel Martin (Labour)
DUNN, Ashley Christopher James (Green)
PAGE, Chris (Conservative)

2021: Con 1685; Lab 1215; Grn 265; LD 204
2017: Con 1469; Lab 1334; UKIP 209; Grn 139; LD 136; Ind 38
2013: Lab 1384; Con 978; UKIP 503; LD 161

Rachel Allen was the Lib Dem candidate here last May, and has also contested Long Eaton Central ward (Erewash DC) on at least 2 previous occasions. Ashley Dunn stood as an independent in that ward in 2015. Chris Page has previously contested Nottingham Road ward (which is the other ward making up this division) for the Conservatives in 2019.

Current Council: Con 43; Lab 14; LD 4; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Joel Bryan is a town councillor and deputy mayor in Belper and has previously stood in Amber Valley. Crich in 2019, Duffield & Belper South division in 2021 and Belper South in 2022 managing to come third every time.

Ashley Christopher James Dunn is not the independent from 2015. That would be Ashley Roy Dunn. I don't know if they are related.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 3, 2022 15:47:22 GMT lackeroftalent said:

Oct 3, 2022 13:58:56 GMT Tony Otim said:

DERBYSHIRE CC; Long Eaton (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLEN, Rachel (Liberal Democrat)
BRYAN, Joel Martin (Labour)
DUNN, Ashley Christopher James (Green)
PAGE, Chris (Conservative)

2021: Con 1685; Lab 1215; Grn 265; LD 204
2017: Con 1469; Lab 1334; UKIP 209; Grn 139; LD 136; Ind 38
2013: Lab 1384; Con 978; UKIP 503; LD 161

Rachel Allen was the Lib Dem candidate here last May, and has also contested Long Eaton Central ward (Erewash DC) on at least 2 previous occasions. Ashley Dunn stood as an independent in that ward in 2015. Chris Page has previously contested Nottingham Road ward (which is the other ward making up this division) for the Conservatives in 2019.

Current Council: Con 43; Lab 14; LD 4; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

Joel Bryan is a town councillor and deputy mayor in Belper and has previously stood in Amber Valley. Crich in 2019, Duffield & Belper South division in 2021 and Belper South in 2022 managing to come third every time.

Ashley Christopher James Dunn is not the independent from 2015. That would be Ashley Roy Dunn. I don't know if they are related.

Thanks - OP edited re:the Dunns.

I did notice the Bryan gives an Amber Valley address - seems perhaps an odd choice for what should be an election Labour hope to win. Wonder if it will have an impact.

[ricmk]

Will Chris Page in Derbyshire be the final Tory election winner of the Truss era?

[lackeroftalent]

Oct 20, 2022 14:52:07 GMT ricmk said:

Will Chris Page in Derbyshire be the final Tory election winner of the Truss era?

If the tories hold Long Eaton I would be more than a little surprised.

[andrewp]

As it currently stands the Conservative Local Election results under Truss have been

12 Con defences which have resulted in 5 Holds and 7 losses.  3 Losses to Lab, 3 losses to the Greens and 1 loss to an Independent

4 Con gains, 3 from Lab and 1 from a Green

So a net of 3 losses and break even against Labour so far. On The first Thursday of her tenure on 8th September they lost 4 seats, so it’s been a net gain in the five weeks since then.

4 defences to go, 3 tonight and one next week ( if she is still PM next Thursday)

[casualobserver]

Oct 20, 2022 14:52:07 GMT ricmk said:

Will Chris Page in Derbyshire be the final Tory election winner of the Truss era?

No

[shadsy]

Smarkets have some odds for Long Eaton:

smarkets.com/event/42978396/politics/uk/by-elections/2020/10/27/21-00/long-eaton-by-election

[John Chanin]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-two-council-by-elections-of-27th-october-2022-cde5621033e

[andrewp]

Oct 26, 2022 15:44:11 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have some odds for Long Eaton:

smarkets.com/event/42978396/politics/uk/by-elections/2020/10/27/21-00/long-eaton-by-election

The question there is will the Labour candidate living quite a long way away jeopardise what could be a fairly straightforward Labour gain.

[matureleft]

Oct 27, 2022 13:57:53 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 26, 2022 15:44:11 GMT shadsy said:

Smarkets have some odds for Long Eaton:

smarkets.com/event/42978396/politics/uk/by-elections/2020/10/27/21-00/long-eaton-by-election

The question there is will the Labour candidate living quite a long way away jeopardise what should be a fairly straightforward Labour gain.

Yes, on the face of it surprising although he looks an enthusiastic young candidate. Long Eaton used to be normally Labour (although not always heavily) and had a reasonable Labour party which should have produced a local candidate. The last county elections were very dispiriting, and I know at least one of the previous candidates round there has found something better to do with her life. They'll also be building for the district elections (where Labour has a chance of regaining control, certainly in current circumstances) and that may have trawled the available candidate pool. 

[phil156]

I forgot to post

They are counting right now in both wards

[timmullen1]

Turnout in Sandwell is 16.33%, 1675 votes per @rhistorerwrites on Twitter.

[olympian95]

Lab gain in Long Eaton according to twitter

[yellowperil]

Oct 26, 2022 0:13:22 GMT casualobserver said:

Oct 20, 2022 14:52:07 GMT ricmk said:

Will Chris Page in Derbyshire be the final Tory election winner of the Truss era?

No

and doubly no, it now seems.

[European Lefty]

Oct 27, 2022 22:29:53 GMT olympian95 said:

Lab gain in Long Eaton according to twitter

15.8% swing to Labour according to Labour's parliamentary candidate 

[timmullen1]

[CatholicLeft]

Some people do over-react a bit:

[andrewp]

Oct 27, 2022 22:43:27 GMT timmullen1 said:

A little bit underwhelming for Labour there

Lab 51.3% (-6.3 from May)
con 39.3% ( -3.1 from May)
LD 4.6%
Green 3.4%
TUSC 1.3%

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 27, 2022 22:49:10 GMT andrewp said:

Oct 27, 2022 22:43:27 GMT timmullen1 said:

A little bit underwhelming for Labour there

Lab 51.3% (-6.3 from May)
con 39.3% ( -3.1 from May)
LD 4.6%
Green 3.4%
TUSC 1.3%

Very hard to get the vote out when people think it is a walkover, also   - a sizable Asian population with an Asian Tory candidate in a remarkable week for British Asians.