Local Council by-elections 27th October 2022

[The Bishop]

Oct 28, 2022 11:32:41 GMT andrewp said:

The baseline nationals polls when these seats were last contested were roughly

2021 Con 40, Lab 38
2022. Lab 41, Con 34

The swing in long Eaton of 15.75% from 2021, would give a national picture of Lab 53, Con 22- very much in line with polling
The Sandwell swing of 1.5% to the Cons since May and about 1% to Lab since 2021 is nominally reflective of something much closer, something  like Lab 38, Con 35

As has been stated, quite a few of these votes would have been cast 2 or 3 weeks ago,

Well if forced to choose, I think Labour would prefer the results being that way round.

Interesting too that their candidate in Long Eaton being an "outsider" didn't seem to hurt them much.

[jamesdoyle]

I was out all day yesterday (running an escape room), so a bit delayed

GWBWI:

Lab +78
LDm +5
Grn -3
Con -75

ASV

Lab +1.3
LD +0.1
Grn +0.0
Con -1.3

Nothing to surprise anyone there.

[andrewp]

As we reach the half way point in the Democratic year, I wanted to answer my own question about whether current control of the council affects results.

For the Conservatives

In councils they have a majority in, they have defended 25 seats. They have held 9, lost 9 to Labour, 4 to the Lib Dems, 2 to Inds and 1 to the Greens, Succesful defence rate is 36%
They have also made 2 gains in councils they already control, 1 from the Lib Dems and 1 from the Greens

In councils they don’t control, they have defended 16 seats. They have held 7, lost 4 to the Greens, 2 to the Lib Dems, 2 to Independents and 1 to Labour. Successful defence rate 44%
They have made 4 gains in councils that they don’t control, 3 from Labour and 1 from an Independent.

For Labour

In councils they have a majority in, they have defended 18 seats. They have held 14, lost 2 to the Conservatives, 1 to the Lib Dems and 1 to an Independent. Successful defence rate 78%
They have made 1 gain in a council they control from an Independent

In councils they don’t control, they have defended 15 seats, held 13, lost 1 to the Conservatives and 1 to an Independents. Successful defence rate 87%
They have made 14 gains in council that they don’t control, 10 from the Conservatives and 4 from Independents.

For the Lib Dems

In councils that they control they have defended 3 seats successfully and have made no gains or losses
In councils that don’t control they have defended 4 seats, holding 3 and losing 1 to the Conservatives and they have made 6 gains, 4 from the Conservatives, 1 from Labour and 1 from an independent.

Out of 39 gains for all parties, only 3 have been by the party already in control of the council. Labour gaining a seat in Chesterfield, and the recent Conservative gains in Fareham and Epping Forest.