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Post by phil156 on Oct 27, 2022 23:11:35 GMT
Anyone got the numbers for Long Eaton ?
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 27, 2022 23:16:53 GMT
Some people do over-react a bit: Well that's all very nice but it 's not giving us the numbers, is it? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 27, 2022 23:40:31 GMT
Can't find any numbers, I'm afraid, but did find this ...
Adam Thompson
@adamthompson111
Over the moon to see
@joel_Bryan1999
elected tonight as the new County Councillor for #LongEaton, with a swing to Labour of 15.8%, which would see me become the MP for Erewash MP if replicated at the general election. Onwards and upwards!
I think the Conservatives were 14% ahead of Labour in 2021, but their sums may not fit ...
''
... I'd still like to see the full figures.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 28, 2022 0:13:21 GMT
Local councillor Tweets the figures!
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 28, 2022 3:49:43 GMT
A little bit underwhelming for Labour there Lab 51.3% (-6.3 from May) con 39.3% ( -3.1 from May) LD 4.6% Green 3.4% TUSC 1.3% Very hard to get the vote out when people think it is a walkover, also - a sizable Asian population with an Asian Tory candidate in a remarkable week for British Asians. Nah. Working Class Sikhs untlikely to be tempted by a Tory Muslim. |
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Post by phil156 on Oct 28, 2022 5:43:13 GMT
RESULT FROM LONG EATON
Lab 1104
Con 723
LD 239
Grn 94
From Erewash Labour party
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 28, 2022 7:14:11 GMT
Assuming those figures are correct that would be a LibDem vote of 11.1% rather than 4.6%.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
Member is Online
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Post by YL on Oct 28, 2022 7:20:08 GMT
Assuming those figures are correct that would be a LibDem vote of 11.1% rather than 4.6%. Those were the Sandwell percentages. I make Long Eaton Lab 51.1% Con 33.5% LD 11.1% Green 4.4% (I think the 50.8% in the tweet comes from including spoilt ballots and rounding down.) |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2022 8:17:47 GMT
Assuming those figures are correct that would be a LibDem vote of 11.1% rather than 4.6%. No it wouldn’t. It would make it 11.1%. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2022 9:12:45 GMT
A little bit underwhelming for Labour there Lab 51.3% (-6.3 from May) con 39.3% ( -3.1 from May) LD 4.6% Green 3.4% TUSC 1.3% Tories won a seat in this ward last year, I think Labour will be reasonably content. |
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 28, 2022 9:42:52 GMT
Tories won a seat in 2021 in Wednesbury S, Labour won in 2022 and that was the Tory seat, he having defected to Labour in the meantime.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2022 9:47:29 GMT
In contrast to earlier in the month, postal votes may not be helping the Tories given when many of them were cast - this may apply to the next few weeks contests as well.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,029
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 28, 2022 10:41:59 GMT
I think the 'meh' result for everyone mostly reflects the comedy turnout. Not a part of the world where it's particularly easy to motivate people for local by-elections, well, not with the state any of the local parties are in anyway.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 28, 2022 10:43:41 GMT
Derbyshire: Long Eaton - Labour gain from Conservative| Party | 2022 votes | 2022 share | since 2021 | since 2017 | since 2013 | | Labour | 1,104 | 51.1% | +15.0% | +11.0% | +5.4% | | Conservative | 723 | 33.5% | -16.5% | -10.7% | +1.1% | | Liberal Democrat | 239 | 11.1% | +5.0% | +7.0% | +5.7% | | Green | 94 | 4.4% | -3.5% | +0.2% | from nowhere | | UKIP |
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| -6.3% | -16.6% | | Independent |
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| -1.1% |
| | Total votes | 1,260 |
| 64% | 65% | 71% |
Swing: Conservative to Labour 15¾% since 2021, 10¾% since 2017 and 2¼% since 2013 Council now: 43 Conservative, 15 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green, 1 Independent Sandwell: Wednesbury South - Labour hold | Party | 2022 B votes | 2022 B share | since 2022 | since 2021 "top" | since 2021 "average" | since 2019 | since 2018 | | Labour | 854
| 51.3% | -6.3% | -2.2% | +0.9% | -4.2% | -14.7% | | Conservative | 654 | 39.3% | -3.1% | +0.7% | -1.4% | +21.2% | +5.3% | | Liberal Democrat | 77 | 4.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 56 | 3.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSC | 23 | 1.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Reform |
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| -4.8% | -5.4% |
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| | Workers |
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| -3.1% | -3.6% |
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| -26.4% |
| | Total votes | 1,664 |
| 68% | 56% | 64% | 74% | 70% |
Swing: Labour to Conservative 1½% since May, 1½% since 2021 "top", 12¾% if meaningful since 2019 and 10% since 2018 - but Conservative to Labour 1¼% since 2021 "average" when Conservative gained the second seat Council now: 61 Labour, 10 Conservative, 1 Sandwell Together (elected as Labour) This was about to be posted last night when our broadband went down and all was lost.
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Post by tonyhill on Oct 28, 2022 11:30:39 GMT
OK - sorry about that misreading, shows I shouldn't email at 4 a.m.
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Post by andrewp on Oct 28, 2022 11:32:41 GMT
The baseline nationals polls when these seats were last contested were roughly
2021 Con 40, Lab 38
2022. Lab 41, Con 34
The swing in long Eaton of 15.75% from 2021, would give a national picture of Lab 53, Con 22- very much in line with polling
The Sandwell swing of 1.5% to the Cons since May and about 1% to Lab since 2021 is nominally reflective of something much closer, something like Lab 38, Con 35
As has been stated, quite a few of these votes would have been cast 2 or 3 weeks ago,
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Oct 28, 2022 15:40:36 GMT
The Sandwell result, like some others in recent months for all parties, might represent an underperformance by the defending party because of the circumstances of the resignation, the outgoing Labour councillor apparently resigning under something of a cloud even if it isn't entirely clear why. And it's always been one of the better Tory wards in Sandwell relatively speaking
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 28, 2022 16:33:52 GMT
The Sandwell result, like some others in recent months for all parties, might represent an underperformance by the defending party because of the circumstances of the resignation, the outgoing Labour councillor apparently resigning under something of a cloud even if it isn't entirely clear why. And it's always been one of the better Tory wards in Sandwell relatively speaking If I remember correctly, North is the better of the two Wednesbury wards for the Tories normally.but you were never going to get a good turnout here. could be worse, could be Princes End or Great Bridge. |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Oct 28, 2022 16:42:48 GMT
The Sandwell result, like some others in recent months for all parties, might represent an underperformance by the defending party because of the circumstances of the resignation, the outgoing Labour councillor apparently resigning under something of a cloud even if it isn't entirely clear why. And it's always been one of the better Tory wards in Sandwell relatively speaking If I remember correctly, North is the better of the two Wednesbury wards for the Tories normally.but you were never going to get a good turnout here. could be worse, could be Princes End or Great Bridge. It was true until 2012, but since 2014, it's pretty similar. |
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,814
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Post by iang on Oct 28, 2022 22:22:54 GMT
The Sandwell result, like some others in recent months for all parties, might represent an underperformance by the defending party because of the circumstances of the resignation, the outgoing Labour councillor apparently resigning under something of a cloud even if it isn't entirely clear why. And it's always been one of the better Tory wards in Sandwell relatively speaking If I remember correctly, North is the better of the two Wednesbury wards for the Tories normally.but you were never going to get a good turnout here. could be worse, could be Princes End or Great Bridge. Yes, Wed North was their best ward some twenty years back, but Wed South they could sometimes get in a good year |
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