john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 14, 2017 20:48:46 GMT
It's possible that rather than splitting the GOP vote any write in campaign will split the anti-Moore vote. A serious concerted 'write in' campaign for Strange will cut down on those voting the GOP ticket. It will attract some who may otherwise have stayed at home. In such a polarised State I am not sure there was ever going to be a lot of straight switches from Republican to Democrat. More likely it will encourage and energise the Democrats and up their turn-out while dismaying the Republicans depressing their turn out.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 14, 2017 6:20:38 GMT
That's considerably different to polls last week. Wonder if just different methodology or represents a real shift? Could very well be a bunch of people, who though ostensibly opposed to independence, are nonetheless a wee bit peeved at the recent actions of Madrid, so I would imagine. The lesson is that the type of approach taken by Cameron over the Scottish independence issue is likely to be more successful than dissolving the regional parliament and locking up the leaders. The British no doubt learned this from the events in Ireland in culminating in 1916.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 13, 2017 6:37:15 GMT
The Republican Line seems to be ‘vote for a paedo rather than a pinko’.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 12, 2017 7:08:04 GMT
Is there any development in recent American politics more inevitable than it turning out that Roy Moore is a paedophile? Amazing that the stock Alabama R response has literally been the old internet classic of 'Well Actually it's called ephebophilia if...' Let's just hold our horses a bit. There is something about this accusation that seems a bit strange, to be honest with you, with three of the women accusers saying nothing inappropriate happened, just that he was 32 and they were in their late teens, and that he asked their mothers' permission to see them. I would hate that if it was a relative of mine, but I live on an estate where there are similar (if not more striking) examples of this sort of relationship, and with no particular stigma attached to it. If we hate ephibophilia, why do we let people marry at 16? It is the accusation by the woman who states that as a 14 year-old girl she was assaulted by Roy Moore that is out of sync with the others and which, if true, is criminal. Let's see how this plays out, she could turn out to be a fantasist and a serial accuser and then the accusations against Roy Moore will have been devastatingly unfair. I wouldn't vote for Roy Moore, think his politics are extreme and that he is an appalling egotist, but I am not going to call somebody a paedophile (or ephobophiliac) on the basis of an as yet unsubstantiated or untested accusation. This argument might hold more water but for the other allegations that have come out about his reputation for ‘hanging around High Schools’. But I suppose this should not be surpring in the context of the Deep South. Remember Jerry Lee Lewis who married his 13 year-old first cousin, once removed to great furore in the UK Press. Now Lewis comes from a similar ‘pious Christian’ background as Moore. His first cousin is Jimmy Swaggart who managed to combine a fire and brimstone TV evangelical ministry with a colourful private life.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 7, 2017 0:08:57 GMT
The first time since 1966, anyway. Even in Southport there wouldn't be that many people around who voted in 1966! That’s not the impression I get!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 1, 2017 1:29:42 GMT
Fantastic opportunity to show Catalonia is against independence. If the separatists win on the other hand it'll be direct rule unless all the idiots are in prison by December. Win-win for Madrid. The indications are that there will be no real changes and the elections will resolve nothing.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 1, 2017 1:26:57 GMT
Sounds like she means more free market capitalism. She wants intervention to tackle things like homelessness and poverty. Doesn't exactly sound like she wants a socialist revolution. Yes, I doubt she really even means capitalism. She means things she doesn't like. Of course, NZ Labour's record of administering a capitalist economy is actually quite impressive. Can anyone forget Rogernomics? I think New Zealand are still following that economic path? Brexiteers would love it.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 23, 2017 23:38:33 GMT
I suspect the socioeconomic composition of the Scottish Green Party vote in rural Aberdeenshire may be somewhat different from, say, central Edinburgh or north Glasgow. Fair point, but the party's (unwise) position on independence is consistent across Scotland. Yes but not every voter in Scotland sees everything through the prism of the separatist-unionist divide. I doubt if many Scottish Green voters primarily go for them because of their separatist stance. If they were that hot on separation, they would probably have voted SNP in the first place. I have come across a number of Green activists and they range from leftist social democrats to neo-anarchists. However one was very right wing indeed. I suspect that Green voters come from even more diverse backgrounds and opinions.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 21, 2017 19:11:16 GMT
About 60 years ago there was something of a shuttle train running from either Cheltenham or Gloucester to Chalford called the "Chalford Titch". If my memory serves me right it was a single carriage pulled by a tank engine. I used to go train spotting at Tuffley whilst on holiday with relatives in Gloucester. It sounds like the plot of an Ealing Comedy!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 18, 2017 14:20:23 GMT
My thinking here is that I cannot see any particular reason my the current 29-38 generation should move to the right. Very few will be owner occupiers. Many are in precarious employment even if not on minimum wage zero hours contracts. They all face the prospect of working well into their 70s if not beyond because of inadequate occupational pensions that are not goining to be inflation proofed. All the evidence shows that personal debt is rising rapidly amongst a number of demographics. I see no reason why that cohort will feel more secure economically in ten years time than they do now. Being in said demographic myself, I am surprised at how many people are willing to understand that they pay for levels of social security, and work pensions, that they will not be entitled to have themselves- but at the same time reject the idea of fixing that, as if all pensioners are seriously impoverished. A lot of pensioners and most over-55s are far from impoverished. They were the ones with free University tuition and grants and now they are getting triple locked state pensions and final salary occupational pensions. The younger demographic have to repay student loans and face an uncertain future over pensions. Things are likely to get worse with inflation beginning to take off again. This will disproportionately hit the young with pensioners having triple locked state pensions and possibly inflation proofed occupational pensions. The gap will get wider if anything.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 18, 2017 0:57:51 GMT
My thinking here is that I cannot see any particular reason my the current 29-38 generation should move to the right. Very few will be owner occupiers. Many are in precarious employment even if not on minimum wage zero hours contracts. They all face the prospect of working well into their 70s if not beyond because of inadequate occupational pensions that are not goining to be inflation proofed. All the evidence shows that personal debt is rising rapidly amongst a number of demographics. I see no reason why that cohort will feel more secure economically in ten years time than they do now.
I have three children in that age group. Only my youngest daughter is currently an owner occupier. My son and my eldest daughter both rent and pay very dearly for accommodation. None are in what I would term secure well-paid employment. None have anything approaching an adequate pension scheme.
All this is very different to my generation. We always felt financially strapped especially when moving to a larger house with higher mortgage repayments but this was a temporary situation. A lot of us were in secure well-paid employment with final salary pension provision, inflation protected in many cases. Mortgages do get paid off and cost of housing does not rise with inflation as is the case for those renting. There was every reason why many in that generation would move to the Right, in economic terms, at least.
To say that this has always been the case is complete balderdash. The age gap in voting behaviour is unprecedented. Any Conservative supporter who is not concerned by this bloody well ought to be. The Conservatives have often done well because their support, in the older generation was always more likely to turn out. This seems to be rolled back somewhat in the last general election.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 17, 2017 13:49:29 GMT
Is it time to bin most, if not all of the rules of voting behaviour? I am referring to all the analysis painstakingly put together by Butler & Stokes plus others, regarding the impact of social class (A, B, C1, C2, D, and E), religion, education, etc.
I saw a poll from YouGov prior to the last General Election which showed next to no correspondence between socio-economic class and voting preference. The poll was a mile out in the final outcome and grossly overestimated to actual Tory vote but I think it as spot on in this analysis.
Only one variable seems to matter now and that is age. YouGov suggested that 36 was the break-even point and anyone younger than that were far more likely to prefer Labour and those older the Conservatives. Since then the break-even age seems to have moved to 46 or 47 as borne out by other surveys and the actual General Election results.
So the Conservatives have a loyal band of voters and followers in the over-65 group while Labour is streets ahead in the under-25s. On the face of it it appears to be a demographic time bomb for the Conservatives that could decimate their vote by the next couple of General Elections if those trends remain.
The obvious retort is that voters will continue to move to the Political Right as they get older. Some may point out that the ‘baby boomers’ once leading the move to the Left in the 1960s now constitute the bedrock of the Conservative vote. This is not actual true as none of the ‘baby boom’ generation would have had a vote before the 1970 General Election and that was won by Ted Heath.
The key reason for the pattern of voting by age is not hard to find. The over-55s are the ones with final salary pension schemes, the ones who benefited the most from owner occupation. The under-35s are the ones renting houses, working on zero-hours contracts, building up debt, and with dubious prospects of ever getting a decent pension.
Fast forward ten years and things will not have changed for the under-35s. The current over-65s will be in much the same position but they will be over-75s and there will be far fewer of them.
Thoughts please.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 6, 2017 23:24:16 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) My cats are called Julian and Sandy. Amusing to note whether people get it or not....usually they make a comment about bona cats.... Do they speak Polari? Or maybe Purrali?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 6, 2017 13:35:57 GMT
EtonMike has a certain ring to it. EtonJulian surely And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.)
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 6, 2017 1:12:13 GMT
Or maybe the creation of Merseyside gave an identity to a group who felt part of the orbit of Liverpool but not of Liverpool itself. I know a few people who actually say they're from Merseyside. Yes I have a friend from Knowsley at Oxford who identifies with Merseyside. You don’t get this with other metropolitan counties like Tyne & Wear. Very true. I know plenty of people from Tyne and Wear and none identify as being from Merseyside.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 4, 2017 14:48:46 GMT
It must have been a relief for you then to discover that all these areas in East Berlin weren't carried by some nasty extremist party who act as an apologist for a former totalitarian regime.. oh wait ( anyway isn't it obvious to anyone who was paying the slightest bit of attention? ) Well yes, but not everybody is paying attention.
And it's pointless to be rude about it......
I wouldn't worry John. When someone is that bitter and twisted, it is inevitable that obnoxious comments will be made.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 4, 2017 12:03:34 GMT
Anglesey has a higher proportion of Welsh speakers than Bangor thanks to the vastly greater presence of 'outsider' students in the latter. Last time I checked, though significantly Anglicised (especially when compared to the rest of Gwynedd), Bangor is still majority Welsh speaking. In fact, it must be worth noting that Anglesey itself has been seeing an influx of English speakers in recent years, though once again it's still majority Welsh speaking, and I think it has the greatest proportion of Welsh speakers in its population, or at least it did have. I certainly got the impression that the non-Welsh speaking population in Anglesey were mostly fairly recent incomers largely from Liverpool and Manchester. There was a big influx during the construction of the Wylfa Nuclear Power Station and a steady stream of retirees. Maybe Holyhead has had an influx from Ireland?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 4, 2017 9:50:38 GMT
Any chance of a key by party to the colour code? Blue-CDU Red- SPD Green-well, Green Purple-Die Linke Thanks. I thought for a horrible moment that purple was AfD!
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 4, 2017 0:16:09 GMT
You might wonder from the above how the hell the SPD won Neukölln; the answer is that though they trailed the CDU in the south of the borough/constituency and the Left in the north, the CDU polled very badly in the north and the Left even worse in the south. Any chance of a key by party to the colour code?
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john07
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Post by john07 on Sept 24, 2017 23:38:52 GMT
I thought it was supposed to be almost impossible to get German nationality, and especially not dual German nationality. I understood that any decedent of a holocaust surviver (or not) from Grrmany was entitled to apply for a German passport. That includes my children.
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