Catalan Regional Election, 2017

[neilm]

The Spanish government has called regional elections for 21st December.

[lancastrian]

Fantastic opportunity to show Catalonia is against independence. If the separatists win on the other hand it'll be direct rule unless all the idiots are in prison by December. Win-win for Madrid.

[john07]

Oct 27, 2017 21:23:47 GMT lancastrian said:

Fantastic opportunity to show Catalonia is against independence. If the separatists win on the other hand it'll be direct rule unless all the idiots are in prison by December. Win-win for Madrid.

The indications are that there will be no real changes and the elections will resolve nothing.

[Foggy]

Polls suggest that, if the ERC and PDeCAT run on a joint list again and the CUP doesn't boycott the election, then those two groups combined could still win a majority of seats. If either they run separately or the CUP declines to stand, then pro-independence parties will be in a minority... but the balance of power between secessionists and hardline unionists being held by CSQP (i.e. Podemos) wouldn't exactly resolve much either.

The least bad realistic outcome would probably be a Junts Pel Sí-led executive headed by a moderate such as Santi Vila, but it would only calm the situation down temporarily.

[mboy]

That's considerably different to polls last week. Wonder if just different methodology or represents a real shift?

[Lord Twaddleford]

Nov 2, 2017 15:20:10 GMT mboy said:

That's considerably different to polls last week. Wonder if just different methodology or represents a real shift?

Could very well be a bunch of people, who though ostensibly opposed to independence, are nonetheless a wee bit peeved at the recent actions of Madrid, so I would imagine.

[mboy]

Razor sharp margin. I suspect the final result will depend on whether the unionists can get it the less motivated but more numerous ones who don't usually vote. If more companies leave the region that might be a motivator.

[Foggy]

That poll isn't much use now that we know the joint list stunt will not be repeated this time.

Carles Puigdemont's list will be called Junts per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia). It is likely to crash and burn, with the ERC instead taking the bulk of the separatist vote.

[john07]

Nov 2, 2017 15:38:53 GMT Lord Twaddleford said:

Nov 2, 2017 15:20:10 GMT mboy said:

That's considerably different to polls last week. Wonder if just different methodology or represents a real shift?

Could very well be a bunch of people, who though ostensibly opposed to independence, are nonetheless a wee bit peeved at the recent actions of Madrid, so I would imagine.

The lesson is that the type of approach taken by Cameron over the Scottish independence issue is likely to be more successful than dissolving the regional parliament and locking up the leaders.

The British no doubt learned this from the events in Ireland in culminating in 1916.

[Foggy]

SOPNs: Barcelona, Girona/Gerona, Lleida/Lérida (& Aran Valley), Tarragona.

Some of those candidacies could be challenged, considering that certain candidates are in exile whilst other have recently spent time in custody and/or are only out of prison on bail. Assuming they are all accepted as legitimate and there are no changes, then the following are notable... 

Ramón Espadaler, formerly of the now-defunct UDC (the 'U' part of CiU), who was a campaigner against marriage equality during the first Zapatero term, appears third on the PSC list for Barcelona and will therefore almost certainly be elected. This is considered sufficient for the UDC's former leader Josep Antoni Duran to declare that he will vote for the 'Socialists' this time without hesitation. Octogenarian anti-corruption activist Carlos Jiménez Villarejo, who was briefly an MEP for Podemos a few years ago, is the lijstduwer (or Catalan equivalent ) for the party in that same constituency.

The ERC – running also under the banner of 'Catalunya Sí' (Catalonia Yes) this time – have former PSC member Ernest Maragall in 13th position on their list for Barcelona, whilst ex-UDC memers Antoni Castellà and Titon Laïlla are a bit further down in 15th and 20th place respectively. Another ex-PSC guy, Fabián Mohedano, holds the less electable rank of 27th spot. Their big hitters Junqueras, Romeva, Forcadell and Marta Rovira are in the top 4 positions and certain to be returned. Magdalena Casamitjana, also formerly of the Socialists, is in 5th spot on the Girona list.

The CUP has internal rules on (consecutive) term limits which most of their most high-profile parliamentarians have fallen foul of. Anna Gabriel is the most prominent casualty of this edict, but I guess she'll be taking the struggle back to the streets.  

Dante Pérez, the mayor of the merged municipality of Gimenells i el Pla de la Font (elected for the PSC but now an independent) has turned up on the PP list for Lleida province – in a promising 2nd position.

The latest poll has the ERC still winning on 23.1% and 35-37 seats, with Junts per Catalunya up to 16.7% and 24 seats and the ERC down to 5.6% and 7 or 8 seats. That would mean 66-69 seats for outrights separatist groups, so it's touch and go whether they'll retain an absolute majority between them. Podem would be down to 7.6% and 8 or 9 seats, so there'd still be a clear majority for the 'right to decide'. 

Ciutadans would carry on as the main unionist party and official opposition on 22.3% and 29 or 30 seats. They would be followed by the PSC on 15.1% of the vote and 19 seats, whereas the PPC would tank further to only 7.8% and 10 or 11 seats. 

No scenario in the polls would see Puigdemont remain as President (or return to the job, depending on your interpretation of events), regardless of any judicial proceedings. 

[Foggy]

Criminally irresponsible madman in self-imposed exile somehow takes even greater leave of his senses. 

[mboy]

Lol - he's lost it (even more than he had previously).

[Merseymike]

Never quite been able to see the logic of small countries wishing to leave the larger one of which they are part, yet join an even larger group of other countries.
Mind you, never have got nationalism.
Having said that, Spain need to recognise that their way of dealing with this issue hasn't worked.
I'd vote Podemos, who oppose narrow nationalism but recognise the need to enable self-determination

[Deleted]

Nov 27, 2017 11:38:57 GMT Merseymike said:

Never quite been able to see the logic of small countries wishing to leave the larger one of which they are part, yet join an even larger group of other countries.
Mind you, never have got nationalism.
Having said that, Spain need to recognise that their way of dealing with this issue hasn't worked.
I'd vote Podemos, who oppose narrow nationalism but recognise the need to enable self-determination

Being a minority within a nation state controlled by another people is very different from being a sovereign state who is a member of an international organization, even one with as much influence as the EU.  Whatever its critics say the EU isn't a state and isn't about to become one. 

[Merseymike]

Nov 27, 2017 11:48:03 GMT @odo said:

Nov 27, 2017 11:38:57 GMT Merseymike said:

Never quite been able to see the logic of small countries wishing to leave the larger one of which they are part, yet join an even larger group of other countries.
Mind you, never have got nationalism.
Having said that, Spain need to recognise that their way of dealing with this issue hasn't worked.
I'd vote Podemos, who oppose narrow nationalism but recognise the need to enable self-determination

Being a minority within a nation state controlled by another people is very different from being a sovereign state who is a member of an international organization, even one with as much influence as the EU.  Whatever its critics say the EU isn't a state and isn't about to become one. 

I agree. But then I think that nationalism is full of internal contradictions, particularly nationalists who also claim to be left of centre.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 27, 2017 11:51:38 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 27, 2017 11:48:03 GMT @odo said:

Being a minority within a nation state controlled by another people is very different from being a sovereign state who is a member of an international organization, even one with as much influence as the EU.  Whatever its critics say the EU isn't a state and isn't about to become one. 

I agree. But then I think that nationalism is full of internal contradictions, particularly nationalists who also claim to be left of centre.

Couldn't agree more. But its not really germane to @odo's point. If you are a small nation you will always be influenced/controlled by bigger, richer, stronger neighbours. Being a member of an organisation whose whole basis is that separate states have to co-operate gives you a formal structure in which you have voting rights, vetoes or whatever, and opportunities to form alliances with like-minded states; it gives you a half-way decent chance of negotiating treaties and trade deals with really big powers without being steamrollered. It's a completely different situation from being part of a unitary state with a different nation - or of being a satellite state of a mighty empire.

The obvious alternative is federalism and I think in places where the nationalists plump for that you don't find such interest in membership of the EU (or whatever.)

[Merseymike]

Nov 27, 2017 11:59:57 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Nov 27, 2017 11:51:38 GMT Merseymike said:

I agree. But then I think that nationalism is full of internal contradictions, particularly nationalists who also claim to be left of centre.

Couldn't agree more. But its not really germane to @odo's point. If you are a small nation you will always be influenced/controlled by bigger, richer, stronger neighbours. Being a member of an organisation whose whole basis is that separate states have to co-operate gives you a formal structure in which you have voting rights, vetoes or whatever, and opportunities to form alliances with like-minded states; it gives you a half-way decent chance of negotiating treaties and trade deals with really big powers without being steamrollered. It's a completely different situation from being part of a unitary state with a different nation - or of being a satellite state of a mighty empire.

The obvious alternative is federalism and I think in places where the nationalists plump for that you don't find such interest in membership of the EU (or whatever.)

Hmmmm...not sure I agree.

Being in the EU does mean giving up a lot of power, which is fine by me.

But when your reason for existence is to claim power back from one entity, particularly when nation states are so weakened in any case, in order to then hand much of it over to another entity, it doesn't make sense to me.

[Adam in Stroud]

Nov 27, 2017 12:03:30 GMT Merseymike said:

Nov 27, 2017 11:59:57 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Couldn't agree more. But its not really germane to @odo 's point. If you are a small nation you will always be influenced/controlled by bigger, richer, stronger neighbours. Being a member of an organisation whose whole basis is that separate states have to co-operate gives you a formal structure in which you have voting rights, vetoes or whatever, and opportunities to form alliances with like-minded states; it gives you a half-way decent chance of negotiating treaties and trade deals with really big powers without being steamrollered. It's a completely different situation from being part of a unitary state with a different nation - or of being a satellite state of a mighty empire.

The obvious alternative is federalism and I think in places where the nationalists plump for that you don't find such interest in membership of the EU (or whatever.)

Hmmmm...not sure I agree.

Being in the EU does mean giving up a lot of power, which is fine by me.

But when your reason for existence is to claim power back from one entity, particularly when nation states are so weakened in any case, in order to then hand much of it over to another entity, it doesn't make sense to me.

I suppose it is about trying to work out which leaves you with most power.

Essentially I agree that nationalism doesn't make sense - big claims are made for absolute sovereignty which fall apart in the face of reality. If a bunch of people gain the right to their own government, making their own rules, but they are so small that they end up having to do what they are told anyway, are they more or less sovereign? Its all relative but nationalism deals in absolutes.

[Deleted]

Nov 27, 2017 12:03:30 GMT Merseymike said:

But when your reason for existence is to claim power back from one entity, particularly when nation states are so weakened in any case, in order to then hand much of it over to another entity, it doesn't make sense to me.

Why not? If you gain more power than you lose its a win. I think you underestimate the power of nation states and overestimate the power of the EU. A sovereign Catalonia within the EU would have far more control over its own affairs than it has as an autonomous region within Spain.

No country is truly independent in the modern interdependent world, so you always have to give up some control. Small countries have to give up more than larger ones, open economies more than closed ones etc. Modern nationalists are well aware of that, but it doesn't mean they can not strive to gain as much independence as possible.

[neilm]

Nov 27, 2017 11:38:57 GMT Merseymike said:

I'd vote Podemos, who oppose narrow nationalism but recognise the need to enable self-determination because they're barking mad lefties

FTFY