Local by-elections , October 12th, 2017

[yellowperil]

Another very interesting set of 8 elections coming up shortly! Sorry if they are coming in fits and starts, but I am on a steep learning curve and also juggling doing this with  being my wife's  carer 24/7,  which in the last resort always has to take priority. Fortunately I have 2 weeks respite coming up,  so will be easier to finish October.  I will ask now for somebody else to take over this task  come November. I have enjoyed this attempt to keep this going and have learned a lot  and made a lot of mistakes, and am very conscious of not being able to  compare with some of my predecessors, notably Doktorb. Maybe somebody else would take it on as a learning exercise, as I did?

[yellowperil]

Wyre BC Rossall Ward
Labour died
3 candidates:
Brian Crawford (Ind)
Maggie Pattinson (Con)
Cheryl Jane Rayner (Lab)

2003 election results: Lab 953/950/886, Con 486/463/459
2007 election results:Lab 826/790/737, Con 632/631/539, UKIP 394
2011 election results:Lab 841/801/758, Con 698/684/655, UKIP 320/233, Ind 193
2015 election results: Lab 1075/1064/989, Con 841/831/791, UKIP 659, Ind 218/173/148/91

[yellowperil]

Tamworth BC Bolehall ward
Labour resigned
2 candidates:
Thomas Christopher Jay ( Con)
Sheree Peaple ( Lab)

2002 election results: Lab 893/846/822, Con 520//508/485
2003 election results: Lab 714, Con 512
2004 election results: Lab 925, Con 711
2006 election results: Lab 1111, Con 701
2007 election results: Lab 990, Con 718
2008 election results: Lab 864, Con 710
2010 election results: Lab 2023, Con 1476
2011 election results: Lab 1205, Con 847
2012 election results: Lab 1047, Con 435
2014 election results: Lab 1162, Con 602
2015 election results: Lab 1440, Con 1315, UKIP 772, Green 182
2016 election results: Lab 818,UKIP 431, Con 404

[yellowperil]

Warrington BC  Chapelford and Old Hall Ward
Labour resigned on election as MP
5 candidates: 
Alan Keith Bird ( Lib Dem)
Stephanie Davies (Green)
Phil Hayward ( Con)
Phil Warburton ( Lab)
Ian Anthony Wilson ( UKIP)

New ward first contested 2016
2016 election results: Lab 1489/1161/1011, LD 698/463/397, Con 593/364/332, UKIP 332, Green 204.

[Merseymike]

Sept 30, 2017 9:02:04 GMT yellowperil said:

Another very interesting set of 8 elections coming up shortly! Sorry if they are coming in fits and starts, but I am on a steep learning curve and also juggling doing this with  being my wife's  carer 24/7,  which in the last resort always has to take priority. Fortunately I have 2 weeks respite coming up,  so will be easier to finish October.  I will ask now for somebody else to take over this task  come November. I have enjoyed this attempt to keep this going and have learned a lot  and made a lot of mistakes, and am very conscious of not being able to  compare with some of my predecessors, notably Doktorb. Maybe somebody else would take it on as a learning exercise, as I did?

I think you have done a good job. Maybe we should rely on Andrew Teale's very good summaries?

[yellowperil]

Sept 30, 2017 16:56:20 GMT Merseymike said:

Sept 30, 2017 9:02:04 GMT yellowperil said:

Another very interesting set of 8 elections coming up shortly! Sorry if they are coming in fits and starts, but I am on a steep learning curve and also juggling doing this with  being my wife's  carer 24/7,  which in the last resort always has to take priority. Fortunately I have 2 weeks respite coming up,  so will be easier to finish October.  I will ask now for somebody else to take over this task  come November. I have enjoyed this attempt to keep this going and have learned a lot  and made a lot of mistakes, and am very conscious of not being able to  compare with some of my predecessors, notably Doktorb. Maybe somebody else would take it on as a learning exercise, as I did?

I think you have done a good job. Maybe we should rely on Andrew Teale's very good summaries?

I understand where you are coming from, and I would not wish these short summaries here to be in any sense a substitute  for Andrew's  - rather  they should invite the question that makes people turn to Andrew for hopefully a definitive answer,  The only problem with Andrew's as I see it is that they are of necessity coming very late , hours before the polls open. If you are using them to help understand the result,  that's fine. It is rather restricting as a source of information if you are trying to predict results in advance, and so you try to do your own research, which is why I felt I might as well put these summaries on here  as I was looking it up anyway.  I notice that a lot of the people on the prediction thread are posting late  because they want to see Andrew's comments before posting their predictions , but obviously you would want to have at least a good idea of the shape of your answer well before then.

[Merseymike]

I suppose I'm just thinking that there may be no-one else able to take on the role though I do tske your point. Andrew always appears to post at least a couple of days in advance?

[andrew111]

Yellowperil:

Thanks for your efforts, and sorry to hear about your wife. I do find these threads, and indeed this whole website, very interesting, and I think all the people who are helping to keep it going deserve lots of praise. (even though I can't be bothered with the prediction competition!)

Andrew's Previews are beautiful, and Britain Elects is providing results data, but this site provides discussion both before and after that is not available elsewhere, and it is a relief to find a relatively non-partisan discussion too!

So I hope there is someone else with time on their hands (not me, I am afraid) to take up the mantle.

[AdminSTB]

I do a very simple summary for another site on a Sunday/Monday and I am happy to cross-post that here. It is nowhere near as good as Andrew's or the efforts that others have made recently, but I'm happy to fill in the gap.

[yellowperil]

Sept 30, 2017 19:47:15 GMT AdminSTB said:

I do a very simple summary for another site on a Sunday/Monday and I am happy to cross-post that here. It is nowhere near as good as Andrew's or the efforts that others have made recently, but I'm happy to fill in the gap.

Thank you. As i said,I'm happy to see October out and it looks relatively quiet for a bit after that.

[yellowperil]

Wakefield BC Stanley & Outwood Ward
Labour Resigned
5 candidates:
Lucy Victoria Brown (Yorkshire)
Nathan Garbutt Moore (Con)
Jack Spencer Hemingway ( Lab)
James Lee Johnston (UKIP)
Nicola Kate Sinclair (Lib Dem)

2004 election results: Lab 2156/1686/1645,  Con 1640/1598/1594
2006 election results: Lab 1246,  Con 986, BNP 777, LD 706
2007 election results: Lab 1338, Con 1130, LD 679, BNP 580
2008 election results: Con 1392, Lab 1112, LD 661, BNP 608
2010 election results: Lab 2936, LD 1539, Con 1187, BNP 761
2011 election results: Lab 2478, Con 1611, LD 360
2012 election results: Lab 2936, Con 971, LD 370
2014 election results: Lab 2004, Con 1208, TUSC 323, LD  297
2015 election results: Lab 3351, Con 2358, UKIP 1651, LD 427, TUSC 129
2016 election results: Lab 1873, Con 950, UKIP 831, LD 151, TUSC 52

[yellowperil]

Three Rivers DC Oxhey Hall & Hayling Ward
Conservative resigned
5 candidates:
Roy Sydney Clements (Con)
Matt Jones (Green)
Keith Martin (Lib Dem)
Mick Matthewson (UKIP)
Brendon O'Brien (Lab)

note- 2 separate wards  up to and including 2012  (and trending quite differently!). then all outs on  2014, then elections by thirds since:
2003 election results: Hayling: Lab 254, Con 171, LD 54
                                      :Oxhey Hall: Con 424, LD 230, Lab 92
2004 election results: Hayling: Lab 395, Con 158, LD 134
                                     : Oxhey Hall: LD 462, Con 430, Lab 106
2007 election results: Hayling; Lab 274, Con 162, LD  87
                                     : Oxhey Hall : LD 589,  Con 417,Lab 60

2008 election results: Hayling: Lab 234,  Con 162, LD.87 
                                      : Oxhey Hall; LD 593, Con 328,  Lab 55
2011 election results: Hayling: Lab 400, Con 327, LD 55
                                      : LD 577, Con 536, Lab 162
2012 election results: Hayling: Lab 421, Con 128, LD 33
                                      : Oxhey Hall: LD 545, Con 342, Lab 87, UKIP 69
2014 election results: LD 612/561/511, Con 550/517/512, Lab 503/477/429, UKIP 490/465
2015 election results: Con 1221, LD 757, Lab 728, UKIP 617
2016 election results: LD 926, Con 496, Lab 339, UKIP 178

[Merseymike]

Oct 1, 2017 9:13:33 GMT yellowperil said:

Nathan Garbutt Moore (Con)

I take it this is not the former lead singer of Brother Beyond?
I used to have such a crush on him....

[mattb]

Oct 1, 2017 11:10:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Three Rivers DC Oxhey Hall & Hayling Ward
Conservative resigned
5 candidates:
Roy Sydney Clements (Con)
Matt Jones (Green)
Keith Martin (Lib Dem)
Mick Matthewson (UKIP)
Brendon O'Brien (Lab)

note- 2 separate wards  up to and including 2012  (and trending quite differently!). then all outs on  2015, then elections by thirds since:
2003 election results: Hayling: Lab 254, Con 171, LD 54
                                      :Oxhey Hall: Con 424, LD 230, Lab 92
2004 election results: Hayling: Lab 395, Con 158, LD 134
                                     : Oxhey Hall: LD 462, Con 430, Lab 106
2007 election results: Hayling; Lab 274, Con 162, LD  87
                                     : Oxhey Hall : LD 589,  Con 417,Lab 60

2008 election results: Hayling: Lab 234,  Con 162, LD.87 
                                      : Oxhey Hall; LD 593, Con 328,  Lab 55
2011 election results: Hayling: Lab 400, Con 327, LD 55
                                      : LD 577, Con 536, Lab 162
2012 election results: Hayling: Lab 421, Con 128, LD 33
                                      : Oxhey Hall: LD 545, Con 342, Lab 87, UKIP 69
2014 election results: LD 612/561/511, Con 550/517/512, Lab 503/477/429, UKIP 490/465
2015 election results: Con 1221, LD 757, Lab 728, UKIP 617
2016 election results: LD 926, Con 496, Lab 339, UKIP 178

Oxhey Hall and 'Hayling' [the northern slice of South Oxhey along Hayling Road] each contribute almost exactly 50% of the electors in the current ward.
The Conservative candidate Roy Clements was the long-standing cllr for Oxhey Hall ward until he lost in 2007.
He was also County Cllr for the division covering Oxhey Hall until he was de-selected in 2009 to his public dismay.
www.watfordobserver.co.uk/news/4325759._Betrayed__councillor_will_not_stand_as_independent_candidate/?ref=arc
Now over 80, presumably he has rebuilt relations with the party since then.
Incldentally the division between the two predecessor wards is preserved in that they remain in separate County divisions (even since recent County boundary changes) and currently in separate Parliamentary constituencies.
All 5 candidates live in the Oxhey Hall half of the ward.

[Arthur Figgis]

Oh FFS, we must be desperate for a candidate. I can’t imagine Clements will do much canvassing.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 1, 2017 11:10:08 GMT yellowperil said:

Three Rivers DC Oxhey Hall & Hayling Ward
Conservative resigned
5 candidates:
Roy Sydney Clements (Con)
Matt Jones (Green)
Keith Martin (Lib Dem)
Mick Matthewson (UKIP)
Brendon O'Brien (Lab)

note- 2 separate wards  up to and including 2012  (and trending quite differently!). then all outs on  2015, then elections by thirds since:
2003 election results: Hayling: Lab 254, Con 171, LD 54
                                      :Oxhey Hall: Con 424, LD 230, Lab 92
2004 election results: Hayling: Lab 395, Con 158, LD 134
                                     : Oxhey Hall: LD 462, Con 430, Lab 106
2007 election results: Hayling; Lab 274, Con 162, LD  87
                                     : Oxhey Hall : LD 589,  Con 417,Lab 60

2008 election results: Hayling: Lab 234, BNP 220  Con 162, LD.87  UKIP 30
                                      : Oxhey Hall; LD 593, Con 328,  Lab 55
2011 election results: Hayling: Lab 400, Con 327, LD 55
                                      : LD 577, Con 536, Lab 162
2012 election results: Hayling: Lab 421, Con 128, LD 33
                                      : Oxhey Hall: LD 545, Con 342, Lab 87, UKIP 69
2014 election results: LD 612/561/511, Con 550/517/512, Lab 503/477/429, UKIP 490/465
2015 election results: Con 1221, LD 757, Lab 728, UKIP 617
2016 election results: LD 926, Con 496, Lab 339, UKIP 178

FTFY (there was also a by-election in Hayling in September 2009 fwiw.  Result Lab 487 Con 190  BNP 170 LD 56 - many will recall from the time that a strong BNP challenge was expected given the result the previous year and also given that they had won the county council seat that May)

[greenhert]

For the record, Three Rivers had all-out elections in 2014, not 2015. Had Three Rivers had all-out elections in 2015 instead of 2014 the Conservatives would have taken overall control of the council. The best the Conservatives could manage even in 2015 was to deprive the Liberal Democrats of overall control.

[yellowperil]

Oct 1, 2017 19:29:29 GMT greenhert said:

For the record, Three Rivers had all-out elections in 2014, not 2015. Had Three Rivers had all-out elections in 2015 instead of 2014 the Conservatives would have taken overall control of the council. The best the Conservatives could manage even in 2015 was to deprive the Liberal Democrats of overall control.

thanks for the correction- it was right on the list of results as you can see, just a slip  with the finger in the comment -will correct on the main post.

[andrewteale]

Sept 30, 2017 18:14:09 GMT yellowperil said:

Sept 30, 2017 16:56:20 GMT Merseymike said:

I think you have done a good job. Maybe we should rely on Andrew Teale's very good summaries?

I understand where you are coming from, and I would not wish these short summaries here to be in any sense a substitute  for Andrew's  - rather  they should invite the question that makes people turn to Andrew for hopefully a definitive answer,  The only problem with Andrew's as I see it is that they are of necessity coming very late , hours before the polls open. If you are using them to help understand the result,  that's fine. It is rather restricting as a source of information if you are trying to predict results in advance, and so you try to do your own research, which is why I felt I might as well put these summaries on here  as I was looking it up anyway.  I notice that a lot of the people on the prediction thread are posting late  because they want to see Andrew's comments before posting their predictions , but obviously you would want to have at least a good idea of the shape of your answer well before then.

I think you're doing a grand job yellowperil.

To explain how I write the previews... Generally I write them the weekend before polling, which is normally when I get the time to do the research, so the first draft of Thursday's previews was finished this afternoon. I'll leave it for a couple of days to allow any last-minute changes to bubble up, and intend to send the final version to Britain Elects on Tuesday night. After that it's up to them but they normally publish on Wednesday to suit their audience. And then my Twitter goes unhinged.

[greenhert]

Thank you, yellowperil. When it comes to elections, even one mistake or mis-type can have serious consequences-see the 1979 results for Chertsey & Walton for example, and the October 1974 and 1983 results for the same seat which when all compared together show that a serious mistake was made in recording the 1979 result for that constituency.