mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 23,715
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Post by mboy on Jul 31, 2017 22:57:51 GMT
Wasn't that basically the polls when Theresa called the UK GE? Somehow I doubt we'll see a repeat...
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 1, 2017 2:07:16 GMT
Hi, I'm a field organiser for Labour in the Auckland Region.
Andrew Little resigned this morning and has been replaced by Jacinda Ardern. She was his Deputy and is the obvious choice, being young and vaguely popular, which is a nice change for the NZLP. The last time we changed leader during an election campaign was in 1990, and we improved in the polls by around 5%. If we do the same this time and pull those votes in from National and NZ First instead of from our Green partners, we could be cooking with fire.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 1, 2017 3:46:51 GMT
How many leaders has the NZLP had in the past 9 years now?
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 1, 2017 3:50:11 GMT
How many leaders has the NZLP had in the past 9 years now? Five: Goff, then Shearer, Cunliffe, Little, and now Ardern. Beats repeating the 1970s, when we let Bill Rowling lose three elections in a row. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 1, 2017 10:03:19 GMT
Oh yes, but polls in that midterm had Labour 35-40% behind National - it was staggering how unpopular they had become. An election rather like ours in 1997 really.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 1, 2017 12:34:16 GMT
The last time we changed leader during an election campaign was in 1990, and we improved in the polls by around 5%. Although you still got hammered, as I recall.... We're going to get hammered this time as well (although some extremely optimistic people have decided that, because Corbyn was underestimated in the British polls, this obviously means that we're really on 38%) but due to the electoral system we can still form a coalition with Greens+NZF as long as we don't get absolutely annihilated. There are problems with the idea of being fine with a caucus of 25 as long as we supply the PM, of course. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 1, 2017 15:43:43 GMT
Oh yes, but polls in that midterm had Labour 35-40% behind National - it was staggering how unpopular they had become. An election rather like ours in 1997 really. Sadly many figures in the NZ Labour Right didn't take the hint from that election and totally withdraw themselves from public life. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 1, 2017 15:47:58 GMT
Oh yes, but polls in that midterm had Labour 35-40% behind National - it was staggering how unpopular they had become. An election rather like ours in 1997 really. Sadly many figures in the NZ Labour Right didn't take the hint from that election and totally withdraw themselves from public life. Though at least Roger Douglas left to peddle his nonsense elsewhere. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 1, 2017 15:56:26 GMT
Don't forget Richard Prebble - the other founder of ACT.
When ACT was founded both Prebble and Douglas thought they were going to sweep away the political establishment and get close to 50% of the vote. It has not turned out that way.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 1, 2017 17:33:50 GMT
The masters of political optimism were surely Destiny New Zealand.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 1, 2017 18:51:33 GMT
Don't forget the Internet Party
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 1, 2017 23:28:57 GMT
our Green partners, we could be cooking with fire. partners? I hope you mean splitters! We have a rather different view over here. Just to give you a feel of the political scene over here, we have 120-odd MPs, an open and friendly culture, a proportional electoral system, and a situation where you can run a national campaign on $2 million. So as you've got to work closely with all of these people after the election, you tend not to be very ideologically doctrinal (which, in real terms, was the main 'crime' of the Rogergnomes in the 1980s) or negative. The idea of making personal criticisms about an opponent is a bit of a Rubicon to us. Also, we need the Greens in order to get into Government, while you need to crush the Greens beneath your heel in order to get into Government. Which creates a slightly different relationship. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 2, 2017 8:06:18 GMT
Hi, I'm a field organiser for Labour in the Auckland Region. A big good luck from Yorkshire! 🌹 "Top Yorkshireman admits red rose is superior". |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2017 18:44:05 GMT
"Top Yorkshireman admits red rose is superior". 😧 Please retract that Now, now guys not worth starting a war over. Oh, wait.... |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 2, 2017 19:24:08 GMT
Now, now guys not worth starting a war over. Oh, wait.... We all know how that worked out for the anaemic rose! |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2017 19:39:50 GMT
Now, now guys not worth starting a war over. Oh, wait.... We all know how that worked out for the anaemic rose! Ok, I warned you to play nicely now you're going to have to endure a failed song for europe entry from 1986.  |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 2, 2017 19:48:56 GMT
We all know how that worked out for the anaemic rose! Ok, I warned you to play nicely now you're going to have to endure a failed song for europe entry from 1986. , I thought we were compadres. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 2, 2017 19:52:55 GMT
Ok, I warned you to play nicely now you're going to have to endure a failed song for europe entry from 1986. , I thought we were compadres. Always, CL , always  |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 2, 2017 19:57:55 GMT
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on Aug 4, 2017 10:23:05 GMT
As horrible as this is, could this help Labour peel off socially liberal votes off the Greens (and maybe even the Nationals) or are those votes in the bag for them already? |
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