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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 21, 2017 2:54:28 GMT
Not a huge story, but it looks like the United Future party will be wiped out for good on 23 September. www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11902970Peter Dunne has been around since the 80s for a series of parties. Initially a follower of Roger Douglas, he formed his own party, Future NZ, once we introduced MMP on the assumption that any party would get in on a proportional system. However, a year later a bunch of other people of similar ilk formed the United Party (harking back to the liberal party of the 1920s) and he joined in. They were your standard mushy centrists who had read about the Lib Dems in a book once without realising that centrist pragmatism was not really the major reason for their relative success. However, the Future bit of United Future came from the Future NZ party - a right-wing Christian party with the same name as Dunne's old party. With these new guys, Dunne managed to get more than just the Ohariu electorate for a couple of terms. However, the bulk of them ended up in the Conservative Party, another Christian outfit which almost crossed the threshold in 2014. Labour came very close to winning Ohariu in 2014, and the United Future party vote there is negligible. People only vote for him because National tell them to. Unfortunately, his central policy this election is legalising cannabis, which isn't going to appeal to all Nats, and the Greens have endorsed Labour in the electorate this time. And now a poll has him losing - by the way, announcing a trifling governmental policy to counter a negative poll is such a Dunne thing to do. His only other characteristic is his impressive hair and bow tie. In other news, I am visiting Whangarei for the weekend, and am seeing quite a few hoardings for the Social Credit candidate, Chris Leitch, who would have won the famous Tamaki by-election in 1992 if he hadn't incurred a parking fine in the final week of the campaign. PeterDunne announced his resignation as party leader and than he won't seek another term in next month election. Yes, it doesn't reflect well on him to resign as soon as it looks like he won't be able to lord it over his minor Ministry. Labour are polling quite well, and our Auckland Campaign Launch yesterday went off brilliantly - we'd booked the venue when Andrew was still Leader, and ended up with a queue round the block which filled another two or three theatres. |
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Post by greenhert on Aug 28, 2017 19:55:51 GMT
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 29, 2017 0:06:37 GMT
Not bad. Although ACT dropped the long form of their name a couple of decades ago and there's no chance of Seymour losing. 2011 maybe, but not now. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Aug 31, 2017 11:26:07 GMT
Labour are ahead in the polls for the first time since 2005.
Due to this and a good Ardern/English debate, the entire party is drunk and has been working out which no-hoper idiots will be elected off the list.
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mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,961 
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Post by mondialito on Aug 31, 2017 14:19:14 GMT
Labour are ahead in the polls for the first time since 2005. Due to this and a good Ardern/English debate, the entire party is drunk and has been working out which no-hoper idiots will be elected off the list. If you lot pull this off and Jacinda becomes PM, I wonder who will be the first to produce the 'this is why Corbyn should have been ditched in April' take? |
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Aug 31, 2017 15:16:22 GMT
Greens hanging by a thread, so even a small error in National favour could be very bad for Labour. On the positive side it really does look like Labour is taking votes of the National's.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2017 16:13:13 GMT
Greens hanging by a thread, so even a small error in National favour could be very bad for Labour. On the positive side it really does look like Labour is taking votes of the National's. Any chance of Labour actually pulling ahead of the Nats? |
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 31, 2017 16:22:40 GMT
That 4% will realistically be their floor, and I have spoken to a few G/L swing voters this evening since the poll came out who will begrudgingly return to the fold in order to keep them in Parliament. I'm sure everyone on the Left will breathe easier when they reach 6/7% again - this seems to happen every time, they consistently run terrible campaigns. TOP is alleged to be a Nat front, although the leader used to be a Labour donor. I have no inside info either way. At any rate, the fact that it can only struggle up to 2% while the Greens are at their lowest ebb suggests that they're at their ceiling and can be ignored. Have any leaders and candidates gone for a cup of tea yet? |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 31, 2017 22:46:59 GMT
I don't understand voters sometimes. Baffling.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 1, 2017 4:25:18 GMT
Greens hanging by a thread, so even a small error in National favour could be very bad for Labour. On the positive side it really does look like Labour is taking votes of the National's. Colmar Brunton tends to have high thresholds for support, which means that it underpolls parties which have a lot of wavering voters. Now, a lot of those voters will of course return to the fold come crunch time, which means that the Greens are really on something towards 8%, while National are probably still 'really' ahead of Labour on those numbers. That 4% will realistically be their floor, and I have spoken to a few G/L swing voters this evening since the poll came out who will begrudgingly return to the fold in order to keep them in Parliament. I'm sure everyone on the Left will breathe easier when they reach 6/7% again - this seems to happen every time, they consistently run terrible campaigns. TOP is alleged to be a Nat front, although the leader used to be a Labour donor. I have no inside info either way. At any rate, the fact that it can only struggle up to 2% while the Greens are at their lowest ebb suggests that they're at their ceiling and can be ignored. Have any leaders and candidates gone for a cup of tea yet? Oh please, we have WhatsApp now.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2017 8:37:27 GMT
Greens hanging by a thread, so even a small error in National favour could be very bad for Labour. On the positive side it really does look like Labour is taking votes of the National's. Any chance of Labour actually pulling ahead of the Nats? New poll has them ahead.. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 1, 2017 23:10:43 GMT
Any chance of Labour actually pulling ahead of the Nats? New poll has them ahead.. That's what we were talking about, yes. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Sept 3, 2017 18:25:35 GMT
This is getting ridiculously like the UK election now, even down to the flattening of the third parties (any chance of Winston failing to make Parliament now?)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 3, 2017 21:31:33 GMT
Err... Maybe I was wrong, lol  I think this is the impact of social media on elections. We've had SNP mania in Scotland, then Corbynmania in the UK (along with the slow deflation of SNPmania in Scotland as people there switch to the new thing) now this. I think that political parties like the Conservatives need to learn the lesson of Momentum and focus their electioneering strategy primarily around social media with old media taking an important but secondary place, not the other way around. Our voters aren't on social media. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2017 21:35:45 GMT
I think this is the impact of social media on elections. We've had SNP mania in Scotland, then Corbynmania in the UK (along with the slow deflation of SNPmania in Scotland as people there switch to the new thing) now this. I think that political parties like the Conservatives need to learn the lesson of Momentum and focus their electioneering strategy primarily around social media with old media taking an important but secondary place, not the other way around. Our voters aren't on social media. what none on them? really? and potential voters.... ? |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2017 21:38:34 GMT
Who are the Opportunity Party? they've taken a few knocks... |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 3, 2017 21:41:13 GMT
Who are the Opportunity Party? they've taken a few knocks... Sometimes politics needs New Faces. |
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Post by finsobruce on Sept 3, 2017 21:46:20 GMT
they've taken a few knocks... Sometimes politics needs New Faces. very few make it to the Top of the Form though. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Sept 3, 2017 22:33:00 GMT
Who are the Opportunity Party? they've taken a few knocks... He means that most sincerely, friends. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 3, 2017 22:35:50 GMT
It will soon be time for New Zealanders to stand up and be counted. |
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