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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 3, 2017 22:43:07 GMT
Err... Maybe I was wrong, lol  I think this is the impact of social media on elections. We've had SNP mania in Scotland, then Corbynmania in the UK (along with the slow deflation of SNPmania in Scotland as people there switch to the new thing) now this. I think that political parties like the Conservatives need to learn the lesson of Momentum and focus their electioneering strategy primarily around social media with old media taking an important but secondary place, not the other way around. Meh, social media hasn't actually played much of a part in this. Jacinda is more popular than Andrew, which means that she gets more favourable coverage, which means that people are more likely to vote for her when their previous parties are evidently failing. There's also been a lot of women switching over because they like the idea of a young woman being PM. New Zealand Political Twitter is about the size of a small township. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 3, 2017 22:47:42 GMT
This is getting ridiculously like the UK election now, even down to the flattening of the third parties (any chance of Winston failing to make Parliament now?) Winston tends to exceed his polling. There is a very slim chance that either NZF or the Greens fail to cross the threshold, the latter end up in this situation every election and always seem to pull it off with their core vote. The parties at risk of falling off the bottom are United Future (100% chance) and the Maori Party (25% due to their good chance in Te Tai H, I don't think Waiariki is solid for them at all this time) while ACT is certain to get 1 maybe 2 due to the strength of their position in Epsom. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 3, 2017 22:58:29 GMT
Have the Greens never tried to entrench themselves in a constituency to protect themselves from the threshold?
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 3, 2017 23:40:56 GMT
Have the Greens never tried to entrench themselves in a constituency to protect themselves from the threshold? Yes, Coromandel in 1999, but it didn't work because there were some very specific environmental concerns at stake in the area which nobody gave a shit about in 2002. Otherwise, they have good party votes in Auckland Central and Wellington Central but have not seriously tried to fight the electorate vote because of National's strength in both electorates. The Greens tend to run either a party vote campaign or a 'soft two tick' campaign whereby they stand a candidate who campaigns for the party vote but doesn't really discourage people from giving them their electorate votes. One particular candidate was desirous of running a 'hard two tick' campaign this year but was smacked down - partly because if the MoU, partly because they got less than 10% of the party vote in the electorate last time. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2017 7:47:10 GMT
New poll has them ahead.. That's what we were talking about, yes. That is a rude and unnecessary comment. You can not expect everyone to care about what you are talking about. A lot of us have you on ignore. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 4, 2017 9:25:30 GMT
That's what we were talking about, yes. That is a rude and unnecessary comment. You can not expect everyone to care about what you are talking about. A lot of us have you on ignore. You literally replied to someone commenting on the relevant poll by asking if it was possible that the poll which had come out was, er, likely to come out. As you had evidently missed a chunk of conversation about something you seemed interested in, I thought it best to fill you in on your misapprehension. As to the second assertion, I very rarely post outside this thread so I can't think why this would be the case unless this place is full of people with long memories, thin skins and ignore lists longer than the collected works of Tolkien. |
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mondialito
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Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
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Post by mondialito on Sept 4, 2017 9:48:53 GMT
I can't think why this would be the case unless this place is full of people with long memories, thin skins and ignore lists longer than the collected works of Tolkien. Umm... |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 4, 2017 11:38:11 GMT
That is a rude and unnecessary comment. You can not expect everyone to care about what you are talking about. A lot of us have you on ignore. You literally replied to someone commenting on the relevant poll by asking if it was possible that the poll which had come out was, er, likely to come out. As you had evidently missed a chunk of conversation about something you seemed interested in, I thought it best to fill you in on your misapprehension. As to the second assertion, I very rarely post outside this thread so I can't think why this would be the case unless this place is full of people with long memories, thin skins and ignore lists longer than the collected works of Tolkien. Relax. No one has you on ignore. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2017 12:44:30 GMT
You literally replied to someone commenting on the relevant poll by asking if it was possible that the poll which had come out was, er, likely to come out. As you had evidently missed a chunk of conversation about something you seemed interested in, I thought it best to fill you in on your misapprehension. As to the second assertion, I very rarely post outside this thread so I can't think why this would be the case unless this place is full of people with long memories, thin skins and ignore lists longer than the collected works of Tolkien. Relax. No one has you on ignore. That is incorrect. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 6, 2017 14:05:09 GMT
Relax. No one has you on ignore. That is incorrect. One person, then. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 7, 2017 1:40:34 GMT
Anyway.
A few minor updates.
National Finance Minister Steven Joyce accused Labour of having a 12bln hole in our budget, but I don't think it made a huge impact, and anyway it wasn't actually true. He has since failed to name a single economist who agrees with his sums.
Robopolling has revealed that a few seats we weren't realistically targeting are actually winnable - including Whanganui and Wairarapa. The last Labour MP for Wairarapa was a transgender former sex worker, so our current candidate, a handsome white guy called Kieran, is probably more 'electable' in the rural, relatively conservative electorate than she was.
The Maori Party's first Chinese candidate (no, I don't know either), Wetex Kang, is being investigated by the Electoral Commission for offering bribes for support on WeChat.
Winston Peters is declining in the polls (however, he is consistently underpolled) due to his pension fracas and an increased feeling that it is a 2 horse race, so he is lashing out left right and centre. In reaction, both National and ACT have been throwing some sick burns in his direction. As the guy is going to be Kingmaker, I don't think this is a massively wise course of action.
Possible coalitions include, in order of likelihood:
- Labour and NZ First - Winston doesn't like the Greens.
- National and NZ First - ACT and Maori Party don't like Winston at all.
- Labour, Greens and possibly Maori - MP have definitely been making some lefty noises, and if Flavell loses while Howie Tamati wins, that changes the direction of their caucus. Our poll lead would have to extend in the next poll, out tonight.
- National, ACT and Maori - they won't have the numbers but this seems to be the preferred option of both English and Seymour.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 7, 2017 8:09:55 GMT
And in tonight's Colmar Brunton poll, Labour have extended the lead.
Lab 43 (-)
Nat 39 (-2)
NZ First 9 (+1)
Green 5 (-) - the real worry for the left
Maori 2 (+1)
TOP 2 (+1)
ACT 0.1 (lol)
Meanwhile, Don Brash, former leader of National and ACT, has come out and called for people to vote NZF because National's 'race-based policies' aren't racist enough. Presumably he is attempting to wheeled his way into becoming Leader of NZF.
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 7, 2017 11:05:27 GMT
How many parties has Don Brash been in now?!
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 7, 2017 23:15:53 GMT
And in tonight's Colmar Brunton poll, Labour have extended the lead. Lab 43 (-) Nat 39 (-2) NZ First 9 (+1) Green 5 (-) - the real worry for the left Maori 2 (+1) TOP 2 (+1) ACT 0.1 (lol) Meanwhile, Don Brash, former leader of National and ACT, has come out and called for people to vote NZF because National's 'race-based policies' aren't racist enough. Presumably he is attempting to wheeled his way into becoming Leader of NZF. this is an obvious flaw in the threshold system, whether the greens get just under or over 5% may depend who governs NZ for the next 5 years. Meh, it usually keeps out the right-wing Christian nut jobs and the Greens have consistently beaten it in similar circumstances (ie - every election they have ever fought) so it isn't a massive problem. Ask me again on September 24th, though. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2017 11:11:46 GMT
this is an obvious flaw in the threshold system, whether the greens get just under or over 5% may depend who governs NZ for the next 5 years. My problem with the threshold system is the blatant gaming of the system that goes on - with leaders of big parties giving a 'nod and a wink' to their supporters to help their prospective junior partners get over the line. It's happened in Germany before (with the CDU and the FDP) and in New Zealand too. Why should that be a problem? If a junior partner is a necessary part of a "bloc" its basically similar to a faction within a big party in a two-party system. |
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mondialito
Labour
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Post by mondialito on Sept 8, 2017 11:21:02 GMT
My problem with the threshold system is the blatant gaming of the system that goes on - with leaders of big parties giving a 'nod and a wink' to their supporters to help their prospective junior partners get over the line. It's happened in Germany before (with the CDU and the FDP) and in New Zealand too. Why should that be a problem? If a junior partner is a necessary part of a "bloc" its basically similar to a faction within a big party in a two-party system. So what is the point of having separate parties? I'm in favour of AMS/MMP myself but would rather have a situation where parties are genuinely separate entities that compete fully against one another before working to form an arrangement once the results are in. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 8, 2017 16:00:59 GMT
Why should that be a problem? If a junior partner is a necessary part of a "bloc" its basically similar to a faction within a big party in a two-party system. So what is the point of having separate parties? I'm in favour of AMS/MMP myself but would rather have a situation where parties are genuinely separate entities that compete fully against one another before working to form an arrangement once the results are in. A separate party has a lot more independence and bargaining power within the "bloc" than a faction in a large party would have, and can leave the bloc if need be. You will never get a scenario where no parties in a multiparty system have formed pre-election alliances, and (in a developed country) the basic left/right divide will still exist regardless of how its organized. |
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 8, 2017 19:55:08 GMT
Why should that be a problem? If a junior partner is a necessary part of a "bloc" its basically similar to a faction within a big party in a two-party system. So what is the point of having separate parties? I'm in favour of AMS/MMP myself but would rather have a situation where parties are genuinely separate entities that compete fully against one another before working to form an arrangement once the results are in. It also tends to help maximise party vote. For instance, if ACT (currently a plaything of National) didn't exist, right-wing anti-Nat voters would vote for other parties which are not in with the Nats, meaning that either there is a dangerous party on the right or that voted are wasted by the threshold and the right is weakened. Whereas having an alliance with a party whose main constituency is Nats who don't like the Nats enables the Nats to get that percentage into Parliament and under their control. Which isn't hugely useful when the ACT party vote is virtually zero, but was very useful when they merited an MP or two and yet were sitting below 5%. |
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Sept 8, 2017 20:32:00 GMT
It would be far better imo to have a threshold of 1% or 2%. Stops the absolute complete fringe/minor parties getting in but also means that there isn't a massive gap in seat numbers between meeting the threshold and not, as would be the case with the Greens getting say 4.99%.
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Post by uhurasmazda on Sept 9, 2017 4:58:58 GMT
It would be far better imo to have a threshold of 1% or 2%. Stops the absolute complete fringe/minor parties getting in but also means that there isn't a massive gap in seat numbers between meeting the threshold and not, as would be the case with the Greens getting say 4.99%. So, a reduction in the threshold is one of the adjustments to the current MMP system which is bandied around from time to time - but honestly, if you can't get the support of 5% of New Zealanders, you probably don't have much to offer to NZ politics. The other ones that ordinary voters sometimes talk about are removing the Maori seats and removing the coat-tail effect, whereby you can leapfrog the threshold and get 2-5 seats if you win one electorate seat. On that point, TOP leader Gareth Morgan is asking both major parties to stand aside in favour of his candidate in Ohariu, the electorate currently held by United Future's Peter Dunne, who is of course retiring. It's a fairly clear "You want me as Kingmaker instead of Winston, don't you? Guys? No? Any takers?" sell. If National or Labour were stupid enough to take him up, and if he continued to poll around 2%, he and his deputy, Geoff Simmons, would get in, as well as their Ohariu candidate, Jessica Hammond Doube. This is her in action - we aren't very good at LibDemmery in this country, so be warned. |
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