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Post by Merseymike on May 8, 2017 10:54:04 GMT
And yes, this is definitely not in our national interest given Macron will team up with Merkel to push for an unfavourable deal. That's just too damn bad.  At the risk of going off topic this is complete nonsense. Merkel will not push for an unfavourable deal because that would not be in Germany's interests and she is above all else a pragmatist. I suspect that Macron will go the same way once in office. The problem we face is not that other EU leaders are particular hostile to us, but that our Prime Minister is so utterly clueless that she will miss the opportunities open to her and end up with a bad deal, or perhaps no deal, through her own pig headed stupidity. It depends what a 'deal' might include and how you see May as likely to be pig headed. The sticking point appears to be freedom of movement - which rules out a temporary EEA type arrangement. But then I think that we fail to grasp how central the interests of the EU countries are bound up with the protection of the EU itself and the importance of ensuring the EU remains united. That may be considered more pragmatic as an area to protect than short-term effect of the UK withdrawal. |
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Post by yellowperil on May 8, 2017 11:05:22 GMT
The president if France is more than 2 years younger than me. I am now officially old 😕 I am twice as old as the President of France, so I must be officially antique  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2017 11:09:28 GMT
The president if France is more than 2 years younger than me. I am now officially old 😕 I am twice as old as the President of France, so I must be officially antique He's the first president of France who couldn't legally be old enough to be my father. His wife is old enough legally to be my grandmother of course! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2017 11:21:21 GMT
Some intriguing names being bandied about for PM. Bayrou, Pascal Lamy, the PS's Jean-Yves Le Drian, a protegee of Bayrou named Sylvie Goulard...
And rumours of Juppé, Gerard Collomb and Xavier Bertrand being offered posts.
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Post by yellowperil on May 8, 2017 11:25:20 GMT
Ok, I am translating this into British terms. First we have to get rid of the Queen and all the royals so we have a presidential election or it won't work....
Nick Clegg has just won the run off for the presidential election in a landslide from Nigel Farage. In the first stage election,Mre May messed up by getting embroiled in a corruption scandal. Labour split but Corbyn came through quite strongly to finish fourth while Andy Burnham was consigned to fifth. The Blair presidency is consigned to history.
Have I got it about right?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 8, 2017 11:58:37 GMT
More like someone you've never heard of has just beaten one of the Fashier Mitford sisters.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2017 12:01:56 GMT
Well, sure, but it's a very foolish moderate politician who looks at this result and sits back, thinking "Far-right lost. Everything's sorted". Ignoring what has led to the far right being the runner-up in Austria, France, Netherlands would be the same degree of mistake as we all made in the UK when ukip won the Euro elections in 2014...which ultimately led to the Brexit vote. I like to imagine that macron's win will trigger a centrist revival, maybe even in time for June 8th to help us, but somehow I doubt it. We should also remember that the reason Macron won is: a) the left had self-destructed by being shit in government b) the right had been crippled by a brilliantly used finance scandal c) his opponent was a proto-fascist who united everyone against her It's entirely possible that of the same circumstances had existed in the UK when Cleggmania kicked off, we might have won a landslide victory in 2010! But such is life... The underlying problems in France continue, and actually i don't believe Macron is willing to do the things necessary to fix them. The FN is not going away, and may will end up with a record ~40 MPs next month, which would represent a breakthrough for them. Hardly a crushing defeat, is it? PS Le Pen got 2% lower vote share than Blair got in 2005, and much higher than we've ever got. All fair points. Nevertheless, for my money the big story is that - she could not break through to get anywhere near a majority, despite the collapse of both the PS and Les Republicains' candidates - the decline in the established parties did not let in a populist of either left or right, but a centrist - she failed to finish first in the opening round. Therefore, for all the comment about how Macron would need others to hold their noses and vote for him, the fact is that she needed rather more people to hold their noses and vote for her, which they manifestly didn't. If it was just her supporters vs Macron's, she'd have still lost, which is in fact quite remarkable when you consider that her party has had 44 years to build to this moment whereas Macron has been trying to put together a movement - hardly a party at all - from scratch in a single year, and doing so on electoral ground already held by other parties. You're quite right that Macron has a big task ahead of him, that the far right is still a force (though I am less sure about Le Pen herself, I'm not sure how she makes a step change up) and that the triumph of the centre is not assured. But, let's face it, who is out there saying any of that? On the contrary, the narrative is continually about how the right is on the march, if it is not populists on the right then it is populists on the left, the only way to beat Le Pen was to try to out-tough her (as Fillon tried to do, and as it perhaps could be said that Rutte did to Wilders) etc.etc. If Le Pen had got 65% and it was En Marche who were predicted to get about 40 MPs, would we be hearing that the metropolitan liberals could not be ignored? Like hell we would, Macron would be held up as a busted flush. Its understandable that FN's sympathisers in the right wing press - most of whom aren't themselves neo-fascists*, but are quite happy to pal up to one if she happens to be eurosceptic - should take that line. But I'd like some liberal commentators to take a look at what worked for Macron, rather than just re-running their hand-wringing pieces about how awful everything is. * Slack use of "neo-fascist" by me: I really mean a neo-Petainist, but I'm referring to anglophone media here so it sort of goes without saying that they aren't neo-Petainists |
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Post by Yaffles on May 8, 2017 12:19:16 GMT
Well, sure, but it's a very foolish moderate politician who looks at this result and sits back, thinking "Far-right lost. Everything's sorted". Ignoring what has led to the far right being the runner-up in Austria, France, Netherlands would be the same degree of mistake as we all made in the UK when ukip won the Euro elections in 2014...which ultimately led to the Brexit vote. I like to imagine that macron's win will trigger a centrist revival, maybe even in time for June 8th to help us, but somehow I doubt it. We should also remember that the reason Macron won is: a) the left had self-destructed by being shit in government b) the right had been crippled by a brilliantly used finance scandal c) his opponent was a proto-fascist who united everyone against her It's entirely possible that of the same circumstances had existed in the UK when Cleggmania kicked off, we might have won a landslide victory in 2010! But such is life... The underlying problems in France continue, and actually i don't believe Macron is willing to do the things necessary to fix them. The FN is not going away, and may will end up with a record ~40 MPs next month, which would represent a breakthrough for them. Hardly a crushing defeat, is it? PS Le Pen got 2% lower vote share than Blair got in 2005, and much higher than we've ever got. All fair points. Nevertheless, for my money the big story is that - she could not break through to get anywhere near a majority, despite the collapse of both the PS and Les Republicains' candidates - the decline in the established parties did not let in a populist of either left or right, but a centrist - she failed to finish first in the opening round. Therefore, for all the comment about how Macron would need others to hold their noses and vote for him, the fact is that she needed rather more people to hold their noses and vote for her, which they manifestly didn't. If it was just her supporters vs Macron's, she'd have still lost, which is in fact quite remarkable when you consider that her party has had 44 years to build to this moment whereas Macron has been trying to put together a movement - hardly a party at all - from scratch in a single year, and doing so on electoral ground already held by other parties. You're quite right that Macron has a big task ahead of him, that the far right is still a force (though I am less sure about Le Pen herself, I'm not sure how she makes a step change up) and that the triumph of the centre is not assured. But, let's face it, who is out there saying any of that? On the contrary, the narrative is continually about how the right is on the march, if it is not populists on the right then it is populists on the left, the only way to beat Le Pen was to try to out-tough her (as Fillon tried to do, and as it perhaps could be said that Rutte did to Wilders) etc.etc. If Le Pen had got 65% and it was En Marche who were predicted to get about 40 MPs, would we be hearing that the metropolitan liberals could not be ignored? Like hell we would, Macron would be held up as a busted flush. Its understandable that FN's sympathisers in the right wing press - most of whom aren't themselves neo-fascists*, but are quite happy to pal up to one if she happens to be eurosceptic - should take that line. But I'd like some liberal commentators to take a look at what worked for Macron, rather than just re-running their hand-wringing pieces about how awful everything is. * Slack use of "neo-fascist" by me: I really mean a neo-Petainist, but I'm referring to anglophone media here so it sort of goes without saying that they aren't neo-Petainists No much to disagree with there - my perspective would be that in a two horse race regardless of the candidates the loser will always gather a descent number of votes from the none from the above brigade (and yes I am aware that was actually an option this time) Secondly, from a pro-EU perspective the far right only has to get lucky once in a major state for the whole thing to state to crumble. Although interestingly despite relentless whinging in the end the French public balked at the prospect of electing an anti-EU president. |
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on May 8, 2017 13:07:51 GMT
But I'd like some liberal commentators to take a look at what worked for Macron It's certainly not obvious to me what did work for him though. If Fillon hadn't been caught in scandal, he'd be president now and Macron would have got 10% and we be saying there continues to be no real place for centrist politics in France. So can we really say that Macron's "More Europe for everything" platform is a winner we should all be emulating? Did the French really just decide they want a liberal economic revolution? Did they really just vote for ever more immigration and an eventual federal union in Europe? Perhaps we should be saying that snaring right-wingers in financial scandal is the way to win elections! I think that the biggest thing this election shows is that France is not like the UK, because when we had the chance to vote for the centre we thought about it for 5 days then said "no thanks"  Beyond that, it seems to me that the only real message here is that the French don't care about intergenerational relationships with students, and winning elections is often about being in the right place at the right time. Neither of those will cause Farron to change his plans... |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 8, 2017 14:19:18 GMT
But I'd like some liberal commentators to take a look at what worked for Macron It's certainly not obvious to me what did work for him though. If Fillon hadn't been caught in scandal, he'd be president now and Macron would have got 10% and we be saying there continues to be no real place for centrist politics in France. So can we really say that Macron's "More Europe for everything" platform is a winner we should all be emulating? Did the French really just decide they want a liberal economic revolution? For they really just vote for ever more immigration and an eventual federal union in Europe? Perhaps we should be saying that snaring right-wingers in financial scandal is the way to win elections! I think that the biggest thing this election shows is that France is not like the UK, because when we had the chance to vote for the centre we thought about it for 5 days then said "no thanks" Beyond that, it seems to me that the only real message here is that the French don't care about intergenerational relationships with students, and winning elections is often about being in the right place at the right time. Neither of those will cause Farron to change his plans... I'm not sure it translates that well into British context, not least because Theresa May is not MLP so can't be fought on those grounds. I'm not sure its true that we rejected the chance to vote for the centre - I think Theresa May has rather cleverly claimed the right as being the new centre, in the sense that "strong and stable" government means "normal life carrying on without the government going off on one". If Farron was leader of the Labour Party rather than us she'd find that a bit harder IMO but compared to Corbyn she is a centrist - and whoever leads the LDs can be dismissed as irrelevant. I suppose the comparison that leapt out at me was with Clinton, and I'd suggest that if you are taking on a right-wing populist 1. Work damn hard not to appear like the establishment candidate - don't find yourself, like Hillary, standing against the heir to millions and find yourself defending your wealth and privilege; the notable thing about Macron is the way that, even down to the name of En Marche, he's managed to position himself as a change candidate despite his background; and 2. Don't get caught with your fingers in the till - or otherwise compromise your integrity ( cough emails cough) 3. Be ready for cyber attacks and when they happen respond fast and decisively. On the euro point, of course that's not relevant to Hillary and in comparison with UK/Farron the environment in France is clearly different - notwithstanding MLP playing the eurosceptic card to some effect, pro-Europeanism still has a constituency there. But a couple of things I think are worth copying are:- - Macron's willingness to get close to the public and engage with hostile voters. He may not convert them, but I think it helps defuse the populist line that all liberals are out of touch elitists; and facing their anger, maybe even getting angry yourself, is a lot better than sitting in a TV studio talking down to people. FWIW I thought Farron did OK in that BBC clip - OK, we'd rather that Joe Public didn't think that we regard him as a racist who doesn't know his own mind, but if he does then Farron's response - stay calm, stand your ground, don't get into a slanging match, acknowledge the other guy's right to an opinion, and try to slip in a dig at the opposition at the end of the round - is not a bad one. - Linked to that, as you'll recall, we took slightly different views over Macron's comments regarding French colonial history. I don't for a minute say this was a vote winner, but it doesn't seem to have harmed him and I suspect that is because he wasn't apologetic or, even worse, weaselly. He didn't try to get into a Dutch auction with MLP on patriotism (fatal since she can always outdo him on that) nor did he try to tiptoe round the issue with some bland statement. Having made what was probably a tactical error he minimised it (IMO) by standing by it, so that people could say to themselves "well at least he's honest and stands up for himself." The issue doesn't directly translate across, but the approach might do. Don't apologise if you upset the Daily Mail, stand up for yourself and use the publicity as an opportunity to put over your point of view. It does of course depend on having an intellectually credible point of view to stand up for as otherwise the interviewer will pull you apart on the detail - people respect Corbyn's sincerity, they just think he's nuts. |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,846 
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 8, 2017 14:41:20 GMT
LePen & mosques:  |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 8, 2017 16:27:29 GMT
That's just because of Paris / Île-de-France though. Not just I would have thought (but even if it is that accounts for 8 separate departments) - I'd have thought France outwith the Ile de France must be over 60% for Macron still France: Macron 20,753,797 MLP 10,644,118 Île-de-France: Macron 3,825,985 MLP 1,033,995 France minus Île-de-France: Macron 16,927,812 = 63.8% MLP 9,610,123 = 36.2% |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 8, 2017 22:43:09 GMT
LePen & mosques: How can you trust a map that doesn't put a minaret on the department which has the most mosques per head of population... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2017 22:55:39 GMT
43% voted against
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2017 8:20:34 GMT
Well colour me surprised. The Russians are interfering via the usual suspects. Now where have I seen this before? #ponders If the Graun live blog is correct, Corbyn has this morning said of Russian hacking that "we are all under attack from hackers...there's no point being paranoid". Good job we have someone with no connection to the Russian state media to clear that one up. |
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Post by mrpastelito on May 9, 2017 8:43:06 GMT
LePen & mosques: How can you trust a map that doesn't put a minaret on the department which has the most mosques per head of population... Would that be Seine-Saint-Denis? If so, it does put a minaret on it. Top right, 93, 94, 95. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 9, 2017 8:44:42 GMT
Well colour me surprised. The Russians are interfering via the usual suspects. Now where have I seen this before? #ponders If the Graun live blog is correct, Corbyn has this morning said of Russian hacking that "we are all under attack from hackers...there's no point being paranoid". Good job we have someone with no connection to the Russian state media to clear that one up. TBF I doubt that Corbyn is a Russian stooge, more that he is still living in 1980. The idea that he was going to get round the hostility of the MSM by exploiting new technologies looks so crazy now it's easy too forget that it was ever floated. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 9, 2017 10:33:42 GMT
Right!! Well, No, Centre-ish-muddled-bit Left-ish-Sort-of-perhaps? Type of thing-ish?
Fuck! I won!!! What do I do now?
Top of the big Helter-Skelter. Top of the World............Ma!!!
Now form your Assembly Mat and off we go!
Down..........And Down............................And Down.
Let's do the Hollandaise.......................Mark2.
Let's Fuck Up the rest of France............Like we did last session.
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Post by finsobruce on May 9, 2017 10:56:10 GMT
Right!! Well, No, Centre-ish-muddled-bit Left-ish-Sort-of-perhaps? Type of thing-ish? Fuck! I won!!! What do I do now? Top of the big Helter-Skelter. Top of the World............Ma!!! Now form your Assembly Mat and off we go! Down..........And Down............................And Down. Let's do the Hollandaise.......................Mark2. Let's Fuck Up the rest of France............Like we did last session. and now some dance music........ |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,020
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Post by Khunanup on May 9, 2017 11:29:22 GMT
How can you trust a map that doesn't put a minaret on the department which has the most mosques per head of population... Would that be Seine-Saint-Denis? If so, it does put a minaret on it. Top right, 93, 94, 95. No. The predominantly Muslim Mayotte (which Fillon won...). |
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Beyond that, it seems to me that the only real message here is that the French don't care about intergenerational relationships with students, and winning elections is often about being in the right place at the right time. Neither of those will cause Farron to change his plans...
