French Presidential Election 2017

[Davıd Boothroyd]

An early poll, but very interesting: elabe.fr/presidentielle-2017-les-intentions-de-vote-a-un-an-du-scrutin-sondage-elabe-pour-les-echos-et-radio-classique/

If it's Juppe-Valls:

Juppe 38%
Le Pen 26%
Valls 15.5%
Melenchon 11.5%
Dupont-Aignan 5%

If it's Juppe-Macron:

Juppe 36%
Le Pen 23%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 12%
Dupont-Aignan 4%

If it's Macron-Sarkozy:

Macron 25%
Le Pen 24%
Sarkozy 18%
Melenchon 12%
Bayrou 11%
Dupont-Aignan 4%

If it's Macron-Le Maire:

Macron 25.5%
Le Pen 25%
Le Maire 18%
Bayrou 11.5%
Melenchon 11.5%
Dupont-Aignan 3.5%

If it's Valls-Fillon:

Le Pen 28.5%
Fillon 19%
Valls 19%
Bayrou 12%
Melenchon 12%
Dupont-Aignan 4%

[Devil Wincarnate]

As ever, people underestimate the appeal of Juppe. A proper old Gaullist.

Le Maire is a clever man but sadly he is crap.

[neilm]

He's also young enough to have a pop next time.

[carlton43]

Valls-Fillon looks interesting. Any chance at all of that happening?

[Foggy]

Is it certain that Bayrou would step aside for Juppé but not for Fillon, Le Maire or Sarko? More to the point – have I missed some bombshell announcement by the incumbent that he is not seeking a second term?!

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS.

[Foggy]

Ah, that makes sense on both counts.

[maxque]

Apr 29, 2016 22:34:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS.

Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party).

[neilm]

Apr 29, 2016 23:21:04 GMT maxque said:

Apr 29, 2016 22:34:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS.

Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party).

Doesn't mean that he's not too much of the left though.

[maxque]

Apr 30, 2016 0:12:36 GMT neilm said:

Apr 29, 2016 23:21:04 GMT maxque said:

Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party).

Doesn't mean that he's not too much of the left though.

He was also on record a few times praising Margaret Thatcher. Sure, he is to your left, but he is not a left-winger. Blair looks like a Militant member next to him.

[The Bishop]

Yes, its a reasonable rule of thumb that if you are to the right of Valls you aren't actually "left wing"

[right]

Looks like Le Pen in the second round.

Can any candidate lose to her in a runoff? Really?

[neilm]

It's interesting with Valls: I see him as a centrist, muddling enarque-ish type who likes random state meddling: an institutional leftist. My dad's village mayor (who is a fairly seniorish former diplomat and professional economist, the kind of guy you'd be happy to have as a sort of ombudsman in the UK because occasionally he'd piss off minsters) sees him as being on the moderate right, "like a serious Bayrou." It's all relative though, I have friends in Grenoble who believe that Jospin was a right winger.

[carlton43]

Perhaps the France watchers could post a link to a good source about the core views of each of these candidates? I don't know enough about them. I have voted Juppe so far but could be persuaded elsewhere.

[neilm]

Political longevity in France is fascinating. Juppe has been around for a long time.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 16, 2016 22:38:56 GMT carlton43 said:

Perhaps the France watchers could post a link to a good source about the core views of each of these candidates? I don't know enough about them. I have voted Juppe so far but could be persuaded elsewhere.

Juppe is a Gaullist of the old school, quite up your street.

Fillon is a safe pair of hands but ideologically hard to pin down. He's married to a Welsh woman and is very Anglophile.

Sarkozy is Sarkozy.

Le Maire is a reformer focused on economics and industry. Clever bloke, nice guy, but not presidential material. A one-time protege of the ludicrous de Villepin but don't hold that against him.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Lutte Ouvriere. A political cult if ever there were.

I imagine the failed NPA will be touted as the next Syriza.

[neilm]

Has Hollande actually declared his candidacy?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Aug 18, 2016 12:05:57 GMT @pjones said:

Aug 18, 2016 10:15:58 GMT neilm said:

Has Hollande actually declared his candidacy?

No he hasn't, and he's been publically undecided about whether he'll run, although the latest indications are that he will. As well as some candidates from the smaller left parties taking part in the primary the line up in the socialist Primary is likely to be

Marie-Noëlle Lienemann - Socialist party Senator for Paris on the left of the Party, announced her candidacy in March
Benoît Hamon - Socialist Party former minister, announced on Tuesday
Arnaud Montebourg - Socialist party former minister, expected to announce on Sunday
François Hollande

It's quite appalling for the PS and France in general that these no-marks and has-beens are all they can offer. Hollande looks like Clemenceau in comparison.

Juppe would annihilate any of them.

[Sibboleth]

It barely matters because the Left is going to get crushed whatever. How about next time they're in a position when they can take power they actually have some sort of idea what they want to do if they win?