neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 7, 2016 14:53:19 GMT
Juppe as president with NKM as prime minister would appeal to me. Agreed DW. And I say that not as a pretend French voter but as a concerned Briton looking in on them. What astonishes me is the appeal of Sarkozy to anyone at all? Even here on this thread he leads! Why on earth is that? He's been able to play the 'things were going well when I was in charge, they were improving. Look what's happened with Hollande! Let me finish the job' card. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 7, 2016 23:46:19 GMT
So according to that polling if Hollande is the candidate of the Socialists he would barely make third place even if Macron and Bayrou were not candidates. Meanwhile if Montebourg is the candidate he could be looking at a possible fifth or sixth place and would (if today's polling holds) only just be ahead of Dupont-Aignan. I like Dupont-Aignan. There's a curious view of him as a hardliner, but he's really a solid, old-fashioned Gaullist. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Sept 11, 2016 16:04:03 GMT
Interesting that LR voters don't rate Le Pen very highly on the terrorism issue. And that PS voters actually rate Hollande on it at all: are there any other polls about specific issues? It seems that it's PS sympathisers dragging down Sarkozy's overall score on this.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 15, 2016 20:28:22 GMT
Sarkozy is now denying anthropogenic climate change, and has suggested that unemployed youths be conscripted into the army. Moving rightwards all the time.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 15, 2016 21:41:31 GMT
Sarkozy is now denying anthropogenic climate change, and has suggested that unemployed youths be conscripted into the army. Moving rightwards all the time. The irony is that Sarkozy was heavily involved in the end of conscription- Chirac himself forced through its abolition against the opposition of the UDI and PS! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 15, 2016 21:53:07 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 16, 2016 10:30:03 GMT
What we need to be very wary of here is the primary and its nature. I'd expect primary voters (well, non-partisan ones taking the mick) to go for Juppe and Fillon.
Sarkozy's target audience is already voting FN and probably won't get involved to the same degree.
Plus, they're also the people most likely to be angry about Sarko from last time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2016 19:21:39 GMT
Latest poll regarding the LR primaries:
1st round:
Sarkozy and Juppé both at 37%
Run-off:
Juppé 52%
Sarkozy 48%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 23, 2016 11:04:53 GMT
J-F Poisson is a member of the hardline PCD, who are aligned to Les Republicains but not full members. The PCD is a vehicle for noted fruitcake Christine Boutin.
Poisson, like any good fringe politician in France, is from Belfort.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 25, 2016 11:14:10 GMT
Republican Primary poll from BVA 13-20 September 1st Round Juppé 38 Sarkozy 34 Fillon 11 Le Maire 11 Kosciusko-Morizet 4 Copé 1 Poisson 1 2nd Round Juppé 56 Sarkozy 44 linkIt'll be interesting to see who drops out. If Le Maire goes, I can see his vote mainly going to Sarkozy. If Fillon or NKM drop out, their vote will go to Juppe. If Juppe is canny, he'll persuade Fillon to drop out and return as his PM if he wins and Les Republicains win the legislatives. Similarly, he'd be advised to make a similar deal with NKM who would be probably happy to take the Garde des Sceaux or Foreign. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2016 22:02:28 GMT
Sarkozy is facing some scandals again (again, again...), one of his former advisers, Patrick Buisson, is playing the Judas card by writing a book trashing him. So do not be surprised to see him go down a bit in the coming weeks.
Juicy tidbits:
- In 2007 Sarkozy tried to woo Jean Marie Le Pen between the first round and the run-off stating the "common values" he has with Front National, he got him many "parrainages" in order for Le Pen to be a candidate.
- In 2006, there were massive "demonstrations" against CPE "Contrat Première Embauche": a law that was destined to severely make workers conditions for the youngest much more precarious in order to encourage businesses to hire them. And apparently, Sarkozy, while Minister of the Interior intentionnally let "a horde of Blacks and Arabs "backfire" one of the demonstrations" (Patrick Buisson's words).
- And Gaddhafi apparently partially funded his campaign in 2007...
It's Buisson's words against Sarkozy, but will almost certainly hurt him.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Sept 30, 2016 23:08:20 GMT
J-F Poisson is a member of the hardline PCD, who are aligned to Les Republicains but not full members. The PCD is a vehicle for noted fruitcake Christine Boutin. Poisson, like any good fringe politician in France, is from Belfort. I am I the only one who thinks this is a bit fishy? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 13, 2016 15:50:10 GMT
A TV debate between all seven candidates in the Republican/Center Right Primary will take place tonight at 9pm (8pm UK time) That's intriguing as they are all pretty decent debaters, even the useless Cope. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Oct 13, 2016 19:39:58 GMT
Debate starting now  I preferred the original.  |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 13, 2016 21:55:46 GMT
Sadly the debate is not on TV5 Monde.
All I've seen so far is that the debate appears to have been bland, apart from Cope bizarrely making a surreal link between salafism and the legalisation of cannabis.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 14, 2016 8:12:05 GMT
Analysis disagrees on winners (but Poisson, which was surprisingly articulate), but there seems to be an agreement than Sarkozy (he looked tense and annoyed) and Copé (he said wierd things and seemed to be there only to attack Sarkozy (Copé was close to Sarkozy, but Sarkozy dropped him because of a scandal, he is very upset since then)).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2016 8:40:32 GMT
Sarkozy normally looks tense and annoyed.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 14, 2016 9:27:15 GMT
Sarkozy normally looks tense and annoyed. It was worse than usual. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2016 9:44:08 GMT
Sarkozy normally looks tense and annoyed. It was worse than usual. Always reminds me of this. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2016 22:27:12 GMT
Abroad Thoughts From Home. Forgive the lack of accents on names.
I was mulling over Trump whilst watching a film about the pieds-noirs being expelled from Algeria, and had some thoughts about the French election. I think the whole thing rests on who ends up as the LR candidate. The PS are surely a bit damaged and I'm not convinced they can rally sufficiently to avoid a Jospining.
Parti socialiste and the Left
I'd hate to be the one to run this time. If it's Hollande, they're gone in the first round. If it's Montebourg, probably the same. Hamon and Lienemann are nobodies and frankly too Parisian. Valls is probably too clever to go for it this time. I don't think the various Leftist cults [sic] will do much, and I suspect it'll be the beginning of the end for the NPA, the biggest busted flush. Melenchon's mob will probably beat them both to come in behind the PS. My prediction: unless someone really interesting appears, the PS are out of it.
The PCF will not run I think, and will spend most of their time protesting against the FN and warning French voters that authoritarian parties with communalistic economic views are a bad thing.
Les Republicains
The most interesting race. My view is that if Juppe is the candidate, he will win the first round at a canter. If he faces a PS candidate, he will trounce them. If he faces MLP, I imagine he will trounce her too. Juppe is, for his faults, actually a good candidate and holds wide respect. He also has a provincial powerbase, which in the current mood strikes me as important.
Front national
Well, God only knows. I suspect she'll easily be into the second round. If she faces the PS, I think she will win. I can't see large parts of the right-wing electorate preferring Hollande or one of the no-marks. Enough of them will vote to get rid of the PS any which way to put her over the top, and I suspect they are not interested in the "crook not fascist" message of 2002. If she faces Sarkozy, I suspect she wins too- enough of the Right will prefer her rather than his bullshitting and tribute act. Anyone else though, and she is stuffed. The difference between her and Trump is that the mainstream Right had nowhere else to go, whereas they will here. In addition, never underestimate the relentless appeal of the Gaullist Right in certain areas, particularly Alsace (where Frexit isn't going to be a popular idea and where the mainstream Right are endlessly popular) and Corsica, purveyor of Gaullist bruisers par excellence.
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