|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2016 10:19:45 GMT
An early poll, but very interesting: elabe.fr/presidentielle-2017-les-intentions-de-vote-a-un-an-du-scrutin-sondage-elabe-pour-les-echos-et-radio-classique/If it's Juppe-Valls: Juppe 38% Le Pen 26% Valls 15.5% Melenchon 11.5% Dupont-Aignan 5% If it's Juppe-Macron: Juppe 36% Le Pen 23% Macron 21% Melenchon 12% Dupont-Aignan 4% If it's Macron-Sarkozy: Macron 25% Le Pen 24% Sarkozy 18% Melenchon 12% Bayrou 11% Dupont-Aignan 4% If it's Macron-Le Maire: Macron 25.5% Le Pen 25% Le Maire 18% Bayrou 11.5% Melenchon 11.5% Dupont-Aignan 3.5% If it's Valls-Fillon: Le Pen 28.5% Fillon 19% Valls 19% Bayrou 12% Melenchon 12% Dupont-Aignan 4% |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 29, 2016 11:48:27 GMT
As ever, people underestimate the appeal of Juppe. A proper old Gaullist.
Le Maire is a clever man but sadly he is crap.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Apr 29, 2016 12:24:12 GMT
He's also young enough to have a pop next time.
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,937 
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Apr 29, 2016 14:06:18 GMT
Valls-Fillon looks interesting. Any chance at all of that happening?
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
|
Post by Foggy on Apr 29, 2016 22:11:45 GMT
Is it certain that Bayrou would step aside for Juppé but not for Fillon, Le Maire or Sarko? More to the point – have I missed some bombshell announcement by the incumbent that he is not seeking a second term?!
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 29, 2016 22:34:29 GMT
I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS.
|
|
Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,137
|
Post by Foggy on Apr 29, 2016 22:39:39 GMT
Ah, that makes sense on both counts.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
Member is Online
|
Post by maxque on Apr 29, 2016 23:21:04 GMT
I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS. Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party). |
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Apr 30, 2016 0:12:36 GMT
I think the assumption is that if Hollande stands, he's toast, so it's far more interesting to look at possible alternatives from the PS. Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party). Doesn't mean that he's not too much of the left though. |
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
Member is Online
|
Post by maxque on Apr 30, 2016 4:21:09 GMT
Macron isn't a PS-alternative. He isn't a PS member, he has his own "not left nor right" microparty and is pretty much critisizing Valls for being too much to the left (while Valls is clearly on the center-right of party). Doesn't mean that he's not too much of the left though. He was also on record a few times praising Margaret Thatcher. Sure, he is to your left, but he is not a left-winger. Blair looks like a Militant member next to him. |
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2016 10:01:55 GMT
Yes, its a reasonable rule of thumb that if you are to the right of Valls you aren't actually "left wing"  |
|
right
Conservative
Posts: 18,797
|
Post by right on Apr 30, 2016 20:53:13 GMT
Looks like Le Pen in the second round.
Can any candidate lose to her in a runoff? Really?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on May 1, 2016 23:04:02 GMT
It's interesting with Valls: I see him as a centrist, muddling enarque-ish type who likes random state meddling: an institutional leftist. My dad's village mayor (who is a fairly seniorish former diplomat and professional economist, the kind of guy you'd be happy to have as a sort of ombudsman in the UK because occasionally he'd piss off minsters) sees him as being on the moderate right, "like a serious Bayrou." It's all relative though, I have friends in Grenoble who believe that Jospin was a right winger.
|
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,937
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 16, 2016 22:38:56 GMT
Perhaps the France watchers could post a link to a good source about the core views of each of these candidates? I don't know enough about them. I have voted Juppe so far but could be persuaded elsewhere.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2016 23:14:09 GMT
Political longevity in France is fascinating. Juppe has been around for a long time.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 17, 2016 6:39:27 GMT
Perhaps the France watchers could post a link to a good source about the core views of each of these candidates? I don't know enough about them. I have voted Juppe so far but could be persuaded elsewhere. Juppe is a Gaullist of the old school, quite up your street. Fillon is a safe pair of hands but ideologically hard to pin down. He's married to a Welsh woman and is very Anglophile. Sarkozy is Sarkozy. Le Maire is a reformer focused on economics and industry. Clever bloke, nice guy, but not presidential material. A one-time protege of the ludicrous de Villepin but don't hold that against him. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 17, 2016 16:03:16 GMT
Lutte Ouvriere. A political cult if ever there were.
I imagine the failed NPA will be touted as the next Syriza.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 18, 2016 10:15:58 GMT
Has Hollande actually declared his candidacy?
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 18, 2016 15:20:46 GMT
Has Hollande actually declared his candidacy? No he hasn't, and he's been publically undecided about whether he'll run, although the latest indications are that he will. As well as some candidates from the smaller left parties taking part in the primary the line up in the socialist Primary is likely to be Marie-Noëlle Lienemann - Socialist party Senator for Paris on the left of the Party, announced her candidacy in March Benoît Hamon - Socialist Party former minister, announced on Tuesday Arnaud Montebourg - Socialist party former minister, expected to announce on Sunday François Hollande It's quite appalling for the PS and France in general that these no-marks and has-beens are all they can offer. Hollande looks like Clemenceau in comparison. Juppe would annihilate any of them. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
|
Post by Sibboleth on Aug 18, 2016 16:57:29 GMT
It barely matters because the Left is going to get crushed whatever. How about next time they're in a position when they can take power they actually have some sort of idea what they want to do if they win?
|
|
