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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2016 22:48:01 GMT
Some geographic and psephological thoughts now. I'm going to focus on areas that voted PS last time or traditionally, and I've put the main settlement in for reference. I'm going to do this on a regular basis hopefully, if there's interest.
Seine-Maritime (Rouen, Le Havre, Dieppe)
A particularly intriguing department and the setting for two of the great French novels, incomparable Madame Bovary and Annie Ernaux's "La place". Of the 10 deputies here, 8 are PS and two are LR. Le Havre used to be the biggest PCF bastion and was often referred to as Stalingrad-sur-mer. I suspect that PCF heritage might lead to an increased vote for the FN this time, especially as it fits the FN patern in the north of being a dump. Dieppe is a current PCF citadel and I imagine will vote left, but who knows where they will all break in a second round without the PS.
2012 presidential select results from the first round: Hollande 29.4%, Sarkozy 25.03%, Le Pen 18.9%
2015 departmental select results from the second round: LR and friends 25.59%, PS 16.47
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spqr
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Post by spqr on Nov 10, 2016 23:01:35 GMT
Les RepublicainsThe most interesting race. My view is that if Juppe is the candidate, he will win the first round at a canter. If he faces a PS candidate, he will trounce them. If he faces MLP, I imagine he will trounce her too. Juppe is, for his faults, actually a good candidate and holds wide respect. He also has a provincial powerbase, which in the current mood strikes me as important. Interesting analysis. Juppé reminds me a bit of Hillary Clinton, actually - the technocratic, insider bridesmaid who has been groomed for years to become a presidential bride. I can see that you think he would trounce Mme. Le Pen, but is there no way in which he could be vulnerable to attacks from the FN? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 10, 2016 23:22:16 GMT
Les RepublicainsThe most interesting race. My view is that if Juppe is the candidate, he will win the first round at a canter. If he faces a PS candidate, he will trounce them. If he faces MLP, I imagine he will trounce her too. Juppe is, for his faults, actually a good candidate and holds wide respect. He also has a provincial powerbase, which in the current mood strikes me as important. Interesting analysis. Juppé reminds me a bit of Hillary Clinton, actually - the technocratic, insider bridesmaid who has been groomed for years to become a presidential bride. I can see that you think he would trounce Mme. Le Pen, but is there no way in which he could be vulnerable to attacks from the FN? He's definitely vulnerable to a degree, I'd say- the right-wing Gaullist vote might well decide that they fancy something new and he's vulnerable on immigration. But he's popular and in a PS-less second round, he will almost certainly attract a lot of their voters who will want to keep out the FN- those voters might stay at home if it's Sarko instead. The other difference with Juppe compared to Clinton is that he has been away from the fray. He stood out of the way whilst the UMP fought amongst themselves, and by all accounts has been a very good and very popular mayor of Bordeaux. That provincial base will surely bring some appeal in a race which will be dominated otherwise by Parisians, including MLP. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 11, 2016 19:49:54 GMT
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Nov 11, 2016 22:54:03 GMT
On the surface I'd say that Hollande is likely to fair better than Rouseff did, but how likely is the Socialist Party going to turn on the president? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2016 8:14:03 GMT
On the surface I'd say that Hollande is likely to fair better than Rouseff did, but how likely is the Socialist Party going to turn on the president? They will almost certainly just close ranks. He will be safe. I am not sure what this stunt achieves. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 12, 2016 8:27:09 GMT
On the surface I'd say that Hollande is likely to fair better than Rouseff did, but how likely is the Socialist Party going to turn on the president? They will almost certainly just close ranks. He will be safe. I am not sure what this stunt achieves. They won't turn on him, but the support to him will be on minimum services. Even his wing of the party doesn't support him anymore (he annoyed them a lot with that book). He pretty much has no allies in the party and may lose the internal primary to Montebourg or Lienemann. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Nov 12, 2016 17:16:08 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2016 9:41:22 GMT
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 13, 2016 11:50:38 GMT
I am no longer in contact with people in France and so have no gut feeling about FN chances. It has always been a given that the FN is strong nearly everywhere but not quite strong enough to pull off regions on indeed to win lots of seats. In that way there are similarities with the UKIP position, although FN is older and far better run. Thus in the Presidential Elections it is not too difficult for FN to get on the final ballot but virtually impossible to win against the coalition of all other parties having voters prepared to sigh and vote to prevent that even worse position. I think that very strong anti-FN generalist position diminishes gradually all the time, but I don't know where we are now.
The French I feel to be much more anti-Muslim than the British but possibly less anti-Immigrant (excepting Muslims?)? I also see them to be both more supportive of the EU than mainstream Remainers and less toxically anti-EU than Brexit Brits? But has that changed over the past two years? I would like to think that many are less keen on the EU and more are very opposed to it.............but is it really so? The point being could there be a partial softening of the disdain for the FN at the same time as there is growth in real Euro-scepticism? Has the softening to the one and the hardening to the other reached a point when the FN can mount a real challenge?
Then again, is there any sign that the left might not wish to vote for the right even to stall the FN, but to stay at home untainted and with the thought that an FN president will concentrate minds, damage the whole of the right and aid their medium term post-Hollande recovery, so why support Juppe and marginalize themselves into medium term oblivion?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2016 12:12:15 GMT
I'd say the main difference between the two parties is that UKIP derives from Thatcherites and the traditional hard Right, whereas the FN is very much a product of outright fascism and Ultramontanism.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 13, 2016 12:23:55 GMT
It's a long time since the FN campaigned on being anti-EU (anti Euro yes, anti-EU no). It's mostly about "illegal immigrants are stealing your jobs, your housing, your money" these days (the anti-EU plank is thorny for the FN, it's very unpopular in North-East (where tons of trade is made with Germany and all the jobs in Strasburg EU offices), which is a good part of France for them usually).
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 13, 2016 12:37:55 GMT
I'd say the main difference between the two parties is that UKIP derives from Thatcherites and the traditional hard Right, whereas the FN is very much a product of outright fascism and Ultramontanism. I think both of those inputs were stronger in much earlier right wing parties. My contacts with the FN of yester-decade would suggest many to have been moderate socialist and secularist, and to be very anti-Paris and anti-Establishment. The fascism was always there up to a point and in a minority of supporters. The extreme monarchist and extreme papist inputs seem in a way to be a factor more of modern Belgium than of modern France, and to be fast waning, and not a major factor at all in the party? There is undoubtedly what many on this forum would term elements of racism in the input of the folk memory of Algeria and the acute losses by the pieds noires, coupled with a visceral hatred of elements of the Gaullism that betrayed them. Those experiences coloured a distaste for Arabs and the Arab world, a hatred of Islam as the exemplar and unifying feature of that 'enemy'. Recent events will have added personal input for younger supporters and reinforced all those trends in the party. Whilst UKIP is anti-Immigrant I see it as not particularly anti-Muslim or anti-Black/Asian (probably as many such in Labour as in UKIP?) whereas it is more overt in the FN that I knew. Even then, many had Arab friends and used Arab run shops whilst probably disliking northern socialists and Parisians and the output of the great Ecoles more than they disliked Arabs. That may have changed recently? |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Nov 13, 2016 12:54:08 GMT
I'd say the main difference between the two parties is that UKIP derives from Thatcherites and the traditional hard Right, whereas the FN is very much a product of outright fascism and Ultramontanism. I think both of those inputs were stronger in much earlier right wing parties. My contacts with the FN of yester-decade would suggest many to have been moderate socialist and secularist, and to be very anti-Paris and anti-Establishment. The fascism was always there up to a point and in a minority of supporters. The extreme monarchist and extreme papist inputs seem in a way to be a factor more of modern Belgium than of modern France, and to be fast waning, and not a major factor at all in the party? There is clearly two factions in the party. A secularist, with a vaguely economically left-wing program, usually well ingrained in desindustrialized areas left behind by the government (Pas-de-Calais is the perfect example), led by Marine herself. Most of their supporters joined in the last two decades. Which it could be compared to UKIP, but it can't due to the other faction (even if they try to hide it from public view as much they can). There is another wing, the traditionnal one, very supportive of now expelled Jean-Marie, mainly made of people thinking Marine is too much to the left and who are in the FN because the mainstream right parties are way too moderate. Enforcement of Christian values, Reagan/Thatcher economic program, outright rejection of immigrants due to being not French (while the other wing is more because they take jobs and housing), reactionnary. Led by Marion Maréchal Le Pen, expulsions by the party leadership for one reason or another (these days, it's being too close to Jean-Marie or to the few actual fascists that wing has, like those two former regional councillors in Vénissieux, Rhône-Alpes), perfect exemple is the PACA FN. Much less electable than the other faction. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 13, 2016 12:57:44 GMT
lol With friends like these, eh, Kippers? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2016 17:00:35 GMT
Fillon is neither an arsehole like Sarko or a convicted crook like Juppe. He would probably get my second choice after NKM.
Still AJ's to lose I'd say. Fillon might well fancy being his PM.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2016 5:13:37 GMT
Le Pen at 11/4 looks decent value in these crazy times.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 17, 2016 23:01:30 GMT
News reaches me there will be a PCF vote next week to decide on strategy. It looks like they will reject supporting Melenchon and will instead run their own candidate.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 18, 2016 17:02:40 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy.
Fillon versus Juppe would be a fascinating runoff. Both fairly popular,both fairly old-school Gaullist, with Fillon being distinctly pro-British. He could win it if he develops the momentum.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 18, 2016 19:35:29 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. Fillon versus Juppe would be a fascinating runoff. Both fairly popular,both fairly old-school Gaullist, with Fillon being distinctly pro-British. He could win it if he develops the momentum. I know next to nothing about Fillon (apart from Wikipedia stuff). Could you give a short profile of him? |
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