john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,796 
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Post by john07 on Nov 18, 2016 22:14:55 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. We live in hope. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2016 23:40:22 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. Fillon versus Juppe would be a fascinating runoff. Both fairly popular,both fairly old-school Gaullist, with Fillon being distinctly pro-British. He could win it if he develops the momentum. Sarkozy would suit us best if we are to get our girl elected! But he is not a patch on Juppe and you say Fillon is an Anglophile which would make a change. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 19, 2016 1:55:58 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. I don't know what "the Gaddafi rumours" are, so I googled it. The first three things on the list are: 1. Sarkozy killed Gaddafi, 2. Gaddafi bribed Sarkozy, 3. Gaddafi bugged Sarkozy's phone. Which, if any, is/are the one(s) gaining credibility in "doing for" Sarkozy? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2016 13:01:08 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. Fillon versus Juppe would be a fascinating runoff. Both fairly popular,both fairly old-school Gaullist, with Fillon being distinctly pro-British. He could win it if he develops the momentum. I know next to nothing about Fillon (apart from Wikipedia stuff). Could you give a short profile of him? Former PM as you'll know, with a powerbase in and around Le Mans. He's married to a Welsh woman and is a strong Anglophile. He's quietly built a profile in the Gaullist ranks over the last decade, although he was a surprising choice as PM. Widely regarded as competent and likeable. The Le Mans base gives him the prized Not Paris credentials. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2016 13:01:52 GMT
My suspicion @pjones is that the Gaddafi rumours are doing for Sarkozy. I don't know what "the Gaddafi rumours" are, so I googled it. The first three things on the list are: 1. Sarkozy killed Gaddafi, 2. Gaddafi bribed Sarkozy, 3. Gaddafi bugged Sarkozy's phone. Which, if any, is/are the one(s) gaining credibility in "doing for" Sarkozy? Rumours of a political slush fund. More q case of others gaining purely because he seems a bit dodgy. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2016 14:35:04 GMT
Former PM as you'll know, with a powerbase in and around Le Mans. He's married to a Welsh woman and is a strong Anglophile. He's quietly built a profile in the Gaullist ranks over the last decade, although he was a surprising choice as PM. Widely regarded as competent and likeable. The Le Mans base gives him the prized Not Paris credentials. And it seems the TV debates have helped him (...) So it looks like we're going into tomorrows vote with a genuine three way contest for the top two stops. Juppe may not even be guaranteed a place in the second round Juppé vs. Fillon would be the most interesting outcome as it would give voters a real choice. If Sarkozy is in the run-off the "anybody but Sarko!" vote will almost certainly be decisive and the non-Sarko candidate win by virtue of not being Sarkozy. |
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 7,056
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Post by jamie on Nov 19, 2016 18:30:24 GMT
Devil Wincarnate Who are the candidates for left of centre voters? Does Macron have a chance of getting to the 2nd round?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2016 20:41:57 GMT
Devil Wincarnate Who are the candidates for left of centre voters? Does Macron have a chance of getting to the 2nd round? Well, thank you for your confidence in my opinion! Unfortunately, unlike Cassandra, I tend to be wrong as well as ignored. The left vote depends on who the PS choose. The LO and NPA, awful both, will probably score appallingly. The Greens are at war. That leaves Jean-Luc Melenchon, the PCF and the PS. And as you, Macron. Macron has a puncher's chance. Nobody really knows how popular he is as he's never run for office. I suspect he'll poll around 10% and then pick his battle. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2016 22:46:54 GMT
I am struggling to find any explanation as to why Fillon is regarded as winning the debate, but the comments on Le Monde are positive about him.
I think the polls @pjones has put up are intriguing. If Fillon wins the first round, I imagine NKM for one rallies to him and he splits the Chiraquist hardcore vote. He can then beat AJ or batter Sarko.
And then he wins. He is MLP's nightmare scenario really- he is less Paris than her, likeable and experienced to boot. And he would massacre any PS candidate right now.
I am impressed. I never thought he would even find himself in this situation. I still prefer NKM though.
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Nov 19, 2016 23:14:18 GMT
I am struggling to find any explanation as to why Fillon is regarded as winning the debate, but the comments on Le Monde are positive about him. I think the polls @pjones has put up are intriguing. If Fillon wins the first round, I imagine NKM for one rallies to him and he splits the Chiraquist hardcore vote. He can then beat AJ or batter Sarko. And then he wins. He is MLP's nightmare scenario really- he is less Paris than her, likeable and experienced to boot. And he would massacre any PS candidate right now. I am impressed. I never thought he would even find himself in this situation. I still prefer NKM though. I backed Fillon at first. Then Juppé. Now firmly back in the Fillon camp. I need to go back to Colombey again soon. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 19, 2016 23:21:44 GMT
I am struggling to find any explanation as to why Fillon is regarded as winning the debate, but the comments on Le Monde are positive about him. I think the polls @pjones has put up are intriguing. If Fillon wins the first round, I imagine NKM for one rallies to him and he splits the Chiraquist hardcore vote. He can then beat AJ or batter Sarko. And then he wins. He is MLP's nightmare scenario really- he is less Paris than her, likeable and experienced to boot. And he would massacre any PS candidate right now. I am impressed. I never thought he would even find himself in this situation. I still prefer NKM though. I backed Fillon at first. Then Juppé. Now firmly back in the Fillon camp. I need to go back to Colombey again soon. Nobody in this race can hold a candle to the General. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 20, 2016 19:35:22 GMT
very likely it will be Juppe and fillon. I do hope fillon comes first.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 20, 2016 19:43:11 GMT
Exit polling suggest
Fillon 30%
Juppe 28%
Sarkozy 24%
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Hash
Non-Aligned
Posts: 116
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Post by Hash on Nov 20, 2016 19:43:48 GMT
Wazemmes really isn't the kind of place where you'll expect Sarko to do particularly well.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 20, 2016 19:47:29 GMT
I like the sound of Fillon and hope he wins. In a run-off between him and Le Pen I would support him. I sort of fancy a runoff between the left and FN which would mean I could support the latter unambiguously (well not entirely unambiguously) and also would give them a far better chance of winning, but I don't think this is likely. Given it is likely to be a runoff between Le Pen and the UMP candidate, with the latter winning, then that candidate being Fillon seems to be the best outcome available
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 20, 2016 19:54:42 GMT
I like the sound of Fillon and hope he wins. In a run-off between him and Le Pen I would support him. I sort of fancy a runoff between the left and FN which would mean I could support the latter unambiguously (well not entirely unambiguously) and also would give them a far better chance of winning, but I don't think this is likely. Given it is likely to be a runoff between Le Pen and the UMP candidate, with the latter winning, then that candidate being Fillon seems to be the best outcome available Interesting interview with his wife Penelope dating from when Mr F became Prime Minister (2007). Apparently Fillon liked Sarkozy because he didn't do things behind your back. Hmmmm... www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1552097/Shell-always-have-Paris....html |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 20, 2016 19:58:50 GMT
First early numbers
Fillon 42%
Juppe 26%
Sarkozy 24%
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 20, 2016 20:02:43 GMT
Can anyone tell me the best site to follow the numbers as they come through, please?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Nov 20, 2016 20:05:55 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2016 20:09:41 GMT
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