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Post by dizz on Dec 20, 2015 22:10:25 GMT
Granada now flips to PSOE 100 votes ahead.
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Post by therealriga on Dec 20, 2015 22:16:34 GMT
Looks like the city of Madrid will end up being the only remaining community to have any United Left (IU) deputies in the Cortes. Firstly, that's not the city of Madrid, it's Madrid region about half of which is Madrid city, with a lot of the rest being satellite towns like Alcala de henares, a kind of Madrid equivalent of Slough (that bad.) Secondly, there will be other IU deputies as they're running on joint lists with Podemos in Aragon and Catalunya. Voters have clearly seen IU as superfluous to Podemos and it wouldn't surprise me if, going forward we see them split, with some merging with Podemos and the diehards going it alone.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 20, 2015 22:19:57 GMT
Having been to Alcala de Henares I never got the impression that it was much of a Slough; a bit boring, yes but hardly that. Are you sure you are not thinking of Móstoles? Or perhaps Getafe?
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Post by therealriga on Dec 20, 2015 22:23:23 GMT
Some of the international press saying that "Rajoy has won." They should know better. 97% counted PP 121, PSOE 92, Podemos 69, Cs 40. Just can't see the Basques and Catalans doing a deal with Rajoy. In contrast to Aznar, who managed to do such deals in his first term, Rajoy seems to have burnt his bridges in that direction by banging the anti-separatist drum too hard, not to mention the fact that Citizens and Esquerra Republicana Catalunya would never do such a deal.
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Post by therealriga on Dec 20, 2015 22:24:37 GMT
Having been to Alcala de Henares I never got the impression that it was much of a Slough; a bit boring, yes but hardly that. Are you sure you are not thinking of Móstoles? Or perhaps Getafe? Could be. I found most of those Madrid satellite towns a bit grim and industrial. |
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Post by greenhert on Dec 20, 2015 22:43:32 GMT
Looks like the city of Madrid will end up being the only remaining community to have any United Left (IU) deputies in the Cortes. Firstly, that's not the city of Madrid, it's Madrid region about half of which is Madrid city, with a lot of the rest being satellite towns like Alcala de henares, a kind of Madrid equivalent of Slough (that bad.) Secondly, there will be other IU deputies as they're running on joint lists with Podemos in Aragon and Catalunya. Voters have clearly seen IU as superfluous to Podemos and it wouldn't surprise me if, going forward we see them split, with some merging with Podemos and the diehards going it alone.
Only in Catalonia re: Podemos-IU collaboration, I believe. There still appears to be a separate IU list running in Aragon.
Your other points are correct, though-Podemos have soaked up substantial and crucial portions of IU's voter base and an IU split could be imminent even though by staying in the Cortes, they have done better than UPyD (Union, Progress and Democracy) who by contrast have lost nine-tenths of their voters.
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Post by greenhert on Dec 20, 2015 23:00:28 GMT
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813 
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 20, 2015 23:20:08 GMT
The MidRightParties PP+C+DiL+PNV+CC sum up to 46.4% and 177 seats. (I know, that such a coalition can be excluded).
I assume strongly, that PP will want a coalition/support with/from PSOE, who on the other side might fight for a government with C, with leftextreme support.
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Georg Ebner
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Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,813
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Post by Georg Ebner on Dec 20, 2015 23:22:21 GMT
Would everybody agree, that the only winners are the pollsters?
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Post by bolbridge on Dec 20, 2015 23:49:42 GMT
The MidRightParties PP+C+DiL+PNV+CC sum up to 46.4% and 177 seats. (I know, that such a coalition can be excluded). I assume strongly, that PP will want a coalition/support with/from PSOE, who on the other side might fight for a government with C, with leftextreme support. Although talk of left and right is missing the point when it comes to DiL in particular - Mas has shown in Catalonia that he will work with anyone to get his goal of Catalan Independence and I also can't see the PNV (let alone DiL) going anywhere near C's. |
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Post by therealriga on Dec 21, 2015 0:31:02 GMT
Firstly, that's not the city of Madrid, it's Madrid region about half of which is Madrid city, with a lot of the rest being satellite towns like Alcala de henares, a kind of Madrid equivalent of Slough (that bad.) Secondly, there will be other IU deputies as they're running on joint lists with Podemos in Aragon and Catalunya. Voters have clearly seen IU as superfluous to Podemos and it wouldn't surprise me if, going forward we see them split, with some merging with Podemos and the diehards going it alone.
Only in Catalonia re: Podemos-IU collaboration, I believe. There still appears to be a separate IU list running in Aragon.
Your other points are correct, though-Podemos have soaked up substantial and crucial portions of IU's voter base and an IU split could be imminent even though by staying in the Cortes, they have done better than UPyD (Union, Progress and Democracy) who by contrast have lost nine-tenths of their voters.
El Pais covers it here in Spanish. politica.elpais.com/politica/2015/12/20/actualidad/1450616416_484848.html Joint lists with Podemos in Catalonia (2 IU elected) and Galicia (1 IU elected.) In the case of UPyD, a number of their members had already jumped ship to C's. For example, Toni Canto, elected in second place for Cs in Valencia, was elected there for UPyD in 2011. |
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Post by therealriga on Dec 21, 2015 0:40:57 GMT
The MidRightParties PP+C+DiL+PNV+CC sum up to 46.4% and 177 seats. (I know, that such a coalition can be excluded). I assume strongly, that PP will want a coalition/support with/from PSOE, who on the other side might fight for a government with C, with leftextreme support. The PSOE have already ruled out a grand coalition with the PP and it would be political suicide for them to keep Rajoy in power, especially with Podemos now breathing down their necks on the left. Citizens have previously ruled out entering a formal coalition with the PP, specifically citing the fate of the LibDems in the UK. However, they'd certainly be open to supporting a PP minority government. I just don't see where the other votes for that would come from, though. Even the Canarian party, who would once have backed the PP, are now in a regional coalition with the PSOE. Even the most likely option of PSOE+Podemos+Catalans isn't that simple. Iglesias doesn't want to play second fiddle to the PSOE, they have strongly divergent views on the regions and the Catalans will play hardball. |
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Post by markgoodair on Dec 21, 2015 8:41:42 GMT
The MidRightParties PP+C+DiL+PNV+CC sum up to 46.4% and 177 seats. (I know, that such a coalition can be excluded). I assume strongly, that PP will want a coalition/support with/from PSOE, who on the other side might fight for a government with C, with leftextreme support. The PSOE have already ruled out a grand coalition with the PP and it would be political suicide for them to keep Rajoy in power, especially with Podemos now breathing down their necks on the left. Citizens have previously ruled out entering a formal coalition with the PP, specifically citing the fate of the LibDems in the UK. However, they'd certainly be open to supporting a PP minority government. I just don't see where the other votes for that would come from, though. Even the Canarian party, who would once have backed the PP, are now in a regional coalition with the PSOE. Even the most likely option of PSOE+Podemos+Catalans isn't that simple. Iglesias doesn't want to play second fiddle to the PSOE, they have strongly divergent views on the regions and the Catalans will play hardball. In other words it's a right mess. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2015 10:16:58 GMT
Well, at least 'Death to the System' dropped by over 60% !!
...791 votes in 2011, 309 yesterday ....
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Dec 21, 2015 10:22:35 GMT
I was due to fly to Malaga later today for a meeting at a gaming company that has a large office there. The meeting has been cancelled due to 'political uncertainty.'
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2015 10:27:36 GMT
I was due to fly to Malaga later today for a meeting at a gaming company that has a large office there. The meeting has been cancelled due to 'political uncertainty.' Odd !? I'm surprised that the election result appears to have been... a surprise ..... & missing out on some time in Malaga, we were there last weekend for a few days off, great city ! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Dec 21, 2015 11:45:22 GMT
Well, at least 'Death to the System' dropped by over 60% !! ...791 votes in 2011, 309 yesterday .... The Falangists had a worrying increase- from 2,898 votes to 7,591. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2015 12:17:35 GMT
& baffling from a UK perspective. Algeceiras votes PP while Medina-Sidonia is solid PSOE ..... |
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Post by johnhemming on Dec 21, 2015 12:19:11 GMT
The only "surprise" is the balance of votes between Podemos and Citizens. That, in any event, was following the trends in the opinion polls.
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Dec 21, 2015 13:18:31 GMT
How does the process work if a government cannot be formed with regard to fresh elections?
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