Spanish General Election 2015

[Andrew_S]

To be held by 20th December 2015:

Wikipedia link

Podemos, a party which was founded on 16th January 2014, is slightly ahead or level-pegging in the polls:

Wikipedia link

www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/01/26/394797/Spain-antiausterity-party-leads-in-opinion-poll

[neilm]

There is also a regional election in Andalucia on the 22nd March. This is a PSOE heartland. If they can fight off Podemos it will reinvigorate them. Regional elections in Madrid looming also.

[bolbridge]

The possibility of SYRIZA at some point winning had been priced into the markets from 2012. Podemos are a much more recent (and worrying) phenomenon.

The PSOE face the real prospect of becoming the next PASOK.

[Andrew_S]

Jan 31, 2015 10:46:30 GMT bolbridge said:

The possibility of SYRIZA at some point winning had been priced into the markets from 2012. Podemos are a much more recent (and worrying) phenomenon.

The PSOE face the real prospect of becoming the next PASOK.

I had no idea until today that the two main parties in Spain were in a state of semi-collapse in terms of their poll ratings. It's good that the situation there is finally making the news over here.

[Deleted]

Jan 31, 2015 9:48:38 GMT neilm said:

There is also a regional election in Andalucia on the 22nd March. This is a PSOE heartland. If they can fight off Podemos it will reinvigorate them. Regional elections in Madrid looming also.

Podemos are only at about 15% in the polls for the regional election. PSOE haven't advanced since 2011.. which I think was the first time they lost control of Andalucia? Although they'll win as the PP and Left are down.

[neilm]

2012. They hold power with the IU. I won't be voting PP that's for sure. Actually, I need to check where I need to go to vote as I've never exercised my vote in La Linea before.

[bolbridge]

Jan 31, 2015 15:31:25 GMT neilm said:

2012. They hold power with the IU. I won't be voting PP that's for sure. Actually, I need to check where I need to go to vote as I've never exercised my vote in La Linea before.

Why won't you be voting PP and who is preferable in Spain?

[neilm]

Socially authoritarian and I don't like their stance on Gibraltar- they don't care that they're hurting their own people. UPyD for me right now- had I a vote in Catalonia I'd probably plump for Mas' outfit. Neither are a perfect fit with me (especially on the EU) but the PP is a certain no no.

[bolbridge]

Jan 31, 2015 15:56:21 GMT neilm said:

Socially authoritarian and I don't like their stance on Gibraltar- they don't care that they're hurting their own people. UPyD for me right now- had I a vote in Catalonia I'd probably plump for Mas' outfit. Neither are a perfect fit with me (especially on the EU) but the PP is a certain no no.

What is UPyD's stance on Gibraltar?

I would find it hard at the moment - I've always been sympathetic to UPyD although the CDC (who hate UPyD of course) have closer links to the Lib Dems. That said I'd much rather a PP led government than one involving Podemos.

[Sibboleth]

Note that in Greece the party that polls the most votes gains fifty extra seats for free (which made it easier for SYRIZA to win power; ironic given the original purpose of the law, which was to prevent Marxists from participation in government), which is not the case in Spain. Podemos can win the election and still not win it.

[bolbridge]

Jan 31, 2015 19:07:16 GMT Sibboleth said:

Note that in Greece the party that polls the most votes gains fifty extra seats for free (which made it easier for SYRIZA to win power; ironic given the original purpose of the law, which was to prevent Marxists from participation in government), which is not the case in Spain. Podemos can win the election and still not win it.

Although smaller parties are generally punished more by the regional allocation of seats than by Greece's pure PR (before the extra seats are added).

[neilm]

Inigo Errejon won't be getting his job back: sevilla.abc.es/andalucia/malaga/20150306/sevi-universidad-malaga-inhabilita-errejon-201503061152.html?ns_campaign=GS_MS&ns_mchannel=abc_andalucia&ns_source=FB&ns_fee=0&ns_linkname=CM

[Merseymike]

Given that the PP is to the right and has a virtual monopoly on the right wing vote outside Catalonia (and the CiU simply won't work with them nationally because of the history) its notable just how much they have collapsed - more so than the PSOE. The next Spanish parliament is likely to have a considerable left wing majority

[bolbridge]

Almost a 4 way tie in the recent Metroscopia poll www.thespainreport.com/14582/new-metroscopia-poll-splits-national-vote-in-spain-four-ways-leaving-no-party-with-governing-majority/

Ciudadanos seem to be eating into the support for the PP and Podemos in particular.

Podemos of course built its rise in support largely around corruption scandals but now faces its own - creating the conditions for ciudadanos' rise.

[bolbridge]

Mar 16, 2015 9:39:40 GMT @trident said:

Mar 16, 2015 8:42:45 GMT bolbridge said:

Almost a 4 way tie in the recent Metroscopia poll www.thespainreport.com/14582/new-metroscopia-poll-splits-national-vote-in-spain-four-ways-leaving-no-party-with-governing-majority/

Ciudadanos seem to be eating into the support for the PP and Podemos in particular.

Podemos of course built its rise in support largely around corruption scandals but now faces its own - creating the conditions for ciudadanos' rise.

It's disappointing to see that UPyD are being squeezed by the rise of Ciudadanos / Ciutadans, as they have been doggedly promoting the same agenda for the best part of ten years, in a more thoughtful and less rabble-rousing manner. It's a mirror image of how Izquierda Unida is being squeezed out by Podemos on the left.

It's pleasing however to see Podemos being squeezed by the rise of Cs

[Sibboleth]

Basically Spanish voters are desperately looking around for alternatives at present. God knows who'll poll surge next.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 16, 2015 18:53:59 GMT Sibboleth said:

Basically Spanish voters are desperately looking around for alternatives at present. God knows who'll poll surge next.

The Carlists are still going.

[markgoodair]

Mar 16, 2015 23:05:49 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Mar 16, 2015 18:53:59 GMT Sibboleth said:

Basically Spanish voters are desperately looking around for alternatives at present. God knows who'll poll surge next.

The Carlists are still going.

Viva el rey.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Mar 16, 2015 23:50:42 GMT markgoodair said:

Mar 16, 2015 23:05:49 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

The Carlists are still going.

Viva el rey.

They are not a fan of him. Unless you mean Cristo el Rey and his divine inquisition. 

[bolbridge]

I can't give you the exact details, but two UPyD MEPs have been expelled from the party over links with C's.