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Post by therealriga on May 21, 2015 18:22:35 GMT
For what its worth, here's my quick take on Sunday's regional elections in Spain, especially in Valencia, including an overview of the historical situation there: therealriga.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/who-will-gain-from-the-pain-in-spain/Those elections will give a clear hint of what's to follow later in the year and the situation looks extremely messy with Citizens and Podemos holding the balance of power almost everywhere. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 22, 2015 9:45:47 GMT
For what its worth, here's my quick take on Sunday's regional elections in Spain, especially in Valencia, including an overview of the historical situation there: therealriga.wordpress.com/2015/05/21/who-will-gain-from-the-pain-in-spain/Those elections will give a clear hint of what's to follow later in the year and the situation looks extremely messy with Citizens and Podemos holding the balance of power almost everywhere. Excellent analysis, thank you. I'll be back in my stomping ground of La Linea next week and will pass comment when I return  |
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Post by therealriga on May 22, 2015 9:48:56 GMT
I would imagine that how Podemos and Ciudadanos behave in places where they hold the balance of power will have a major impact on their performance in the General Election. If they just start splitting and infighting, like new parties often do, their bubbles could burst pretty quickly. But if they play a constructive role it will be another story. The signs so far from Andalusia aren't encouraging, with Podemos and Ciudadanos making big demands of the PSOE in exchange for confidence and supply agreements which the latter won't grant and just over a week left before another election is triggered. Some deals between the big two parties after the regional elections aren't out of the question if Podemos and Ciduadanos won't play ball. There's already precedent in Asturias and the Basque country for that. I suspect you're right, if the smaller two parties play hardball and are overly obstructive, their support will quickly fall back. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on May 22, 2015 10:20:11 GMT
It wouldn't have happened under Griñan, he'd have come to some sort of deal.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 22, 2015 11:28:50 GMT
I would imagine that how Podemos and Ciudadanos behave in places where they hold the balance of power will have a major impact on their performance in the General Election. If they just start splitting and infighting, like new parties often do, their bubbles could burst pretty quickly. But if they play a constructive role it will be another story. The signs so far from Andalusia aren't encouraging, with Podemos and Ciudadanos making big demands of the PSOE in exchange for confidence and supply agreements which the latter won't grant and just over a week left before another election is triggered. Some deals between the big two parties after the regional elections aren't out of the question if Podemos and Ciduadanos won't play ball. There's already precedent in Asturias and the Basque country for that. I suspect you're right, if the smaller two parties play hardball and are overly obstructive, their support will quickly fall back. I hope their support does collapse if they try ransom tactics. Stable governance should be paramount. |
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Post by therealriga on May 24, 2015 20:26:23 GMT
Provisional results are coming in bit by bit and looks like a disaster for the right. In regional elections, losing former strongholds like Madrid and Valencia to the left, Aragon currently very tight with the left having a 1 seat majority based on the results so far, with Citizens holding the balance of power between PSOE/Podemos and the PP in Murcia, La Mancha and La Rioja. The PP also look to have lost most of the big city councils they controlled: Madrid, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza. elpais.com/tag/elecciones_municipales_2015/a/
Spanish media calling it "an electoral earthquake."
(Update: with 89% counted, the Madrid regional election is on a knife edge. Current projections: PP 48, PSOE 37, Podemos 27, Citizens 17. In that situation PP could just retain it with Citizens' support for a 1 seat majority. Looks like a left majority of 1 seat on Madrid city council.) |
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Post by Merseymike on May 25, 2015 0:42:17 GMT
Would Citizens do themselves any favours propping up the PP, which is deeply corrupt and unpopular. Citizens is a Liberal party which is unique in Spain, strongly left-right -and I would have thought they would prosper more as a centre party if they steered clear f PP
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on May 25, 2015 1:08:29 GMT
Would Citizens do themselves any favours propping up the PP, which is deeply corrupt and unpopular. Citizens is a Liberal party which is unique in Spain, strongly left-right -and I would have thought they would prosper more as a centre party if they steered clear f PP Describing C's as 'liberal' is a stretch, it is more of a bland centre-right party with an anti-nationalist twist that has been saved so far from the responsibilities of government ruining its reputation. |
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Post by therealriga on May 25, 2015 22:39:14 GMT
I've an overview blog of the results and possible outcomes here: therealriga.wordpress.com/2015/05/25/who-won-in-spain/To sum up, excellent result for Podemos, really good for Citizens, but, at 12%, way down on the near 20% some polls were giving them pre-election. Terrible for the big two, especially the PP, which is not surprising as 2011 was a bit of an annus mirabilis for them, but they've lost control of places like Valencia, which they controlled for 20 years, as well as more recent acquisitions like Castile La Mancha and Extremadura and will have to govern with Citizens' support in places like Castile Leon, where they'd had a majority for 24 years. UPyD had a terrible election and now face a struggle for survival to avoid being subsumed into a Citizens-led coalition. United Left also did poorly, being wiped off the electoral map in 4 regions and declining in all the others. The main question, which will be answered in the coming weeks, is what will Podemos and Citizens do where they hold the balance of power? Either route, abstaining and leaving government to one of the big two or actively backing them is likely to cause discontent with some sections of their voter base. |
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Post by bolbridge on May 26, 2015 9:57:31 GMT
Provisional results are coming in bit by bit and looks like a disaster for the right. In regional elections, losing former strongholds like Madrid and Valencia to the left, Aragon currently very tight with the left having a 1 seat majority based on the results so far, with Citizens holding the balance of power between PSOE/Podemos and the PP in Murcia, La Mancha and La Rioja. The PP also look to have lost most of the big city councils they controlled: Madrid, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza. elpais.com/tag/elecciones_municipales_2015/a/
Spanish media calling it "an electoral earthquake."
(Update: with 89% counted, the Madrid regional election is on a knife edge. Current projections: PP 48, PSOE 37, Podemos 27, Citizens 17. In that situation PP could just retain it with Citizens' support for a 1 seat majority. Looks like a left majority of 1 seat on Madrid city council.) I can't see C's choosing deals with Podemos over the PP. That doesn't meant however that they'll deal with anyone. I don't know enough about the PP/PSOE to know if grand coalitions are possible. |
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Post by bolbridge on May 26, 2015 10:51:09 GMT
Catalonia could get very messy in September.
If there is a surge for Podemos, we might well end up with the following situation:
(1) Explicitly nationalist parties do not quite have a majority in Parliament, although Podemos (or the PSC!) would easily put them over the line.
(2) There would be a leftist majority - but that would confuse the ERC's main goal of independence as the PSC would have to be included - although I don't know how anti-independence the PSC are at the moment.
(3) C's and the PPC would have a bunch of seats but no realistic chance of forming/supporting the Government given that the CiU long ago burnt its bridges with the latter and C's was set up largely in response to the likes of CiU.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 26, 2015 11:15:58 GMT
Provisional results are coming in bit by bit and looks like a disaster for the right. In regional elections, losing former strongholds like Madrid and Valencia to the left, Aragon currently very tight with the left having a 1 seat majority based on the results so far, with Citizens holding the balance of power between PSOE/Podemos and the PP in Murcia, La Mancha and La Rioja. The PP also look to have lost most of the big city councils they controlled: Madrid, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza. elpais.com/tag/elecciones_municipales_2015/a/
Spanish media calling it "an electoral earthquake."
(Update: with 89% counted, the Madrid regional election is on a knife edge. Current projections: PP 48, PSOE 37, Podemos 27, Citizens 17. In that situation PP could just retain it with Citizens' support for a 1 seat majority. Looks like a left majority of 1 seat on Madrid city council.) I can't see C's choosing deals with Podemos over the PP. That doesn't meant however that they'll deal with anyone. I don't know enough about the PP/PSOE to know if grand coalitions are possible. Well, the regional process for making a government might force C's to get into coalitions. At the regional level, if there is no majority to elect a regional Premier after a few attempts, there is another election called. Some electors might vote else if they think C's failed to try to get a government deal. At the municipal level, it's different, if there is a failure to elect a mayor, the party who finished 1st wins by default. |
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Post by therealriga on May 26, 2015 13:06:02 GMT
Provisional results are coming in bit by bit and looks like a disaster for the right. In regional elections, losing former strongholds like Madrid and Valencia to the left, Aragon currently very tight with the left having a 1 seat majority based on the results so far, with Citizens holding the balance of power between PSOE/Podemos and the PP in Murcia, La Mancha and La Rioja. The PP also look to have lost most of the big city councils they controlled: Madrid, Valencia, Seville and Zaragoza. elpais.com/tag/elecciones_municipales_2015/a/
Spanish media calling it "an electoral earthquake."
(Update: with 89% counted, the Madrid regional election is on a knife edge. Current projections: PP 48, PSOE 37, Podemos 27, Citizens 17. In that situation PP could just retain it with Citizens' support for a 1 seat majority. Looks like a left majority of 1 seat on Madrid city council.) I can't see C's choosing deals with Podemos over the PP. That doesn't meant however that they'll deal with anyone. I don't know enough about the PP/PSOE to know if grand coalitions are possible. Yes, it's unlikely that Citizens will throw in their lot with Podemos, but there are cases, more at municipal level, but also in Madrid region, where they can allow a left-wing administration simply by abstaining. That could happen if PP refuse to meet their demands.
Coalitions rarely happen in Spain, but confidence and supply arrangements between the big two are possible if both have enough self-interest in it. In 2009, the PP backed a PSOE administration in the Basque country to end Nationalist rule there and it also happened in late 2013 in Asturias. There, the smaller parties withdrew support from PSOE, demanding among other things, changes to the electoral system. The PP, who would have been hurt by it as much as the PSOE, backed a continued PSOE administration to avoid the electoral changes.
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Post by therealriga on May 26, 2015 13:12:38 GMT
I can't see C's choosing deals with Podemos over the PP. That doesn't meant however that they'll deal with anyone. I don't know enough about the PP/PSOE to know if grand coalitions are possible. Well, the regional process for making a government might force C's to get into coalitions. At the regional level, if there is no majority to elect a regional Premier after a few attempts, there is another election called. Some electors might vote else if they think C's failed to try to get a government deal. At the municipal level, it's different, if there is a failure to elect a mayor, the party who finished 1st wins by default. Citizens' choice depends on what Podemos do (and, to a degree, vice versa.) If Podemos refuse to back PSOE administrations, then Citizens will have to decide who to support. For example, in Valencia, if Podemos refused to support the PSOE, Citizens could back a continued PP minority administration, though that would be a very controversial move on both parties' part. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2015 14:31:04 GMT
Given how unpopular and corrupt the PP have become, propping them up would do the Citizens no favours.
Also, in Spanish terms, they are unusual in that Spain has a very clear left-right political divide outside catalonia based on the civil war - in Catalonia all the parties are anti-PP above all else, which is why CiU can't be seen to give it any backing even though its a centre right party
Its obviously early days but its clear that Citizens see themselves as a centre/liberal party free of past baggage, whereas Podemos is a green/left party
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 26, 2015 18:49:35 GMT
Given how unpopular and corrupt the PP have become, propping them up would do the Citizens no favours. Also, in Spanish terms, they are unusual in that Spain has a very clear left-right political divide outside catalonia based on the civil war - in Catalonia all the parties are anti-PP above all else, which is why CiU can't be seen to give it any backing even though its a centre right party Its obviously early days but its clear that Citizens see themselves as a centre/liberal party free of past baggage, whereas Podemos is a green/left party I also get the impression that Citizens want better government, Podemos want to protest. |
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Post by bolbridge on May 26, 2015 19:13:23 GMT
Given how unpopular and corrupt the PP have become, propping them up would do the Citizens no favours. Also, in Spanish terms, they are unusual in that Spain has a very clear left-right political divide outside catalonia based on the civil war - in Catalonia all the parties are anti-PP above all else, which is why CiU can't be seen to give it any backing even though its a centre right party Its obviously early days but its clear that Citizens see themselves as a centre/liberal party free of past baggage, whereas Podemos is a green/left party What else are C's supposed to do faced with a choice between Podemos and the PP? They are quite clearly closer to the PP in policy terms (even allowing for the radically different social policies) - both are pro-free market and firmly opposed to separatists. The CiU have not always been firmly anti-PP, although they very much are right now. |
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2015 20:10:42 GMT
All I can say to that is...how many seats have the LibDems got now?
PP are highly discredited and keeping them in power may not be advisable
Of course it will depend on the arithmetic in each area
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Post by Andrew_S on May 29, 2015 22:27:33 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on May 30, 2015 17:03:00 GMT
Hah. Podemos is basically a cult.
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