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Post by marksenior on Nov 28, 2014 12:42:41 GMT
Huntingdonshire result
Con 448 UKIP 337 Lab 199
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Nov 28, 2014 12:45:14 GMT
St Neots Priory Park, turnout 15%
Con 448, UKIP 337, Lab 199
Con 45.5% (-2.9)
UKIP 34.2% (+7.4)
Lab 20.2% (+5.4)
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Nov 28, 2014 12:50:12 GMT
Midlothians first preference:
Labour 1294, SNP 1260, Ind 780, Tories 331, Greens 197 and Lib Dems 68.
Lab 32.9% (-2.7)
SNP 32.1% (-10.8)
Ind 19.8% (+19.8)
Con 8.4% (-0.7)
Grn 5.0% (+5.0)
LD 1.7% (+1.7)
Winner unknown for the moment.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2014 12:50:17 GMT
First preferences in Midlothian East:
Labour 1,294 (33%)
SNP 1,260 (32%)
Independent 780 (20%)
Conservatives 331 (8%)
Scottish Green Party 197
Liberal Democrats 68
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 28, 2014 13:06:27 GMT
'We are the 32%'
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 28, 2014 13:25:49 GMT
Well, that is interesting.
In fact none of the Scottish local by-elections since the referendum have really backed up some of the gigantic SNP poll scores we have seen.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 28, 2014 13:30:56 GMT
Midlothians first preference: Labour 1294, SNP 1260, Ind 780, Tories 331, Greens 197 and Lib Dems 68. Lab 32.9% (-2.7) SNP 32.1% (-10.8) Ind 19.8% (+19.8) Con 8.4% (-0.7) Grn 5.0% (+5.0) LD 1.7% (+1.7) Winner unknown for the moment. Well done Labour. I don't say that very often. Could it be that the Independent has drawn differential support and this is not an indicator of the generality? |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2014 14:20:21 GMT
The Labour candidate in Midlothian worked for Labour for years and was Ed Millibands press manager, which means he's managed to bring a fair number of M(S)Ps down into the area.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2014 14:29:30 GMT
Midlothian East transfers first put the SNP ahead but now Labour are back in the lead by 59 votes. Last count now, and it will be decided by who gets most of the Independent's transfers.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 28, 2014 14:48:04 GMT
Labour hold Midlothian East. Trying to piece it together but looks a bit like this: | Party | First | Transfers | Stage 2 | Transfers | Stage 3 | Transfers | Stage 4 | | Lab | 1,294 | +16 | 1,310 | +33 | 1,343 | +100 | 1,443 | +239 | 1,682 | | SNP | 1,260 | +10 | 1,270 | +87 | 1,357 | +27 | 1,384 | +229 | 1,613 | | Ind | 780 | +9 | 789 | +42 | 831 | +83 | 914 | -914 | - | | C | 331 | +11 | 342 | +17 | 359 | -359 | - | | | | SGP | 197 | ? | ? | -? | - | | | | | | L Dem | 68 | -68 | - | | | | | | |
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Post by justin124 on Nov 28, 2014 15:14:12 GMT
A very good result for Labour and a major disappointment for the SNP.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 28, 2014 15:18:32 GMT
I these were the 2012 first perferences
2012 - SNP 1,372/405 = 1,777, Lab 1,003/475 = 1,478, Ind 461, Con 379, SA-CC 52
could one argue that it is effectively a Labour gain since 2012 - or at least a swing to Labour?
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 28, 2014 16:26:53 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Troup - SNP gain from Conservative- based on first preference votes | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | since 2008 B | since 2007 | | SNP | 1,159 | 46.1% | +6.4% | -16.8% | -1.7% | | Conservative | 574 | 22.8% | +1.9% | +4.0% | -1.4% | | Independent Still | 391 | 15.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 141 | 5.6% | +3.6% | -12.8% | -2.0% | | Labour | 140 | 5.6% | -0.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 68 | 2.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Mitchell | 43 | 1.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Previous Independents |
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| -31.0% |
| -20.4% | | Total votes | 2,516 |
| 89% | 92% | 67% |
Swing Conservative to SNP 2¼% since 2012 but SNP to Conservative ~10% since 2008 by-election although neglible swing since 2007 East Yorkshire, Bridlington Central & Old Town - UKIP gain from Social Democrat| Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | UKIP | 401 | 30.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 352 | 27.1% | -2.0% | -4.0% | +1.2% | -1.5% | | Independent Dealtry * | 217 | 16.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Dixon | 214 | 16.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent Tate | 116 | 8.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | SDP |
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| -37.6% | -32.6% | -37.1% | -30.7% | | Labour |
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| -27.8% | -29.5% | -10.9% | -12.0% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.6% | -6.8% | -11.5% | -12.6% | | BNP |
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| -14.6% | -16.1% | | Total votes | 1,300 |
| 42% | 51% | 34% | 38% |
* Labour candidate in 2011 Swing not meaningful East Yorkshire, Howdenshire - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 1,020 | 46.2% | +2.6% | +3.2% | +5.1% | -2.7% | -8.7% | | UKIP | 891 | 40.3% | +5.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 298 | 13.5%
| -2.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +6.8% | +6.0% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -5.9% | -6.9% | -6.6% | -23.8% | -19.7% | | Independent |
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| -16.5% | -17.3% | -20.6% | -18.0% | | East Yorks Ind |
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| -15.1% | -15.8% |
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| | Other Independent |
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| -5.3% | -5.6% |
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| | Total votes | 2,209 |
| 61% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 47% |
Swing Conservative to UKIP 1.4% since 2013 by-election otherwise not meaningful East Yorkshire, Ellerby & Kirk Ella - Conservative hold - amended for UKIP vote 699 not 899 | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2010 B | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 1,522 | 55.6% | +9.4% | +9.3% | from nowhere | +4.3% | +3.8% | | UKIP | 699 | 25.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 515 | 18.8% | +2.7% | +3.2% | -1.4% | +13.8% | +14.3% | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -29.6% | -30.2% | -79.7% | -43.6% | -43.6% | | English Democrat |
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| -8.1% | -7.9% |
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| | Total votes | 2,736 |
| 55% | 58% | 43% | 54% | 55% |
Swing not meaningful Hillingdon, Charville - Labour hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 950 | 39.2% | +4.2% | +6.0% | -0.4% | +0.7% | | Conservative | 929 | 38.3% | +7.0% | +7.2% | +1.0% | +0.5% | | UKIP | 468 | 19.3% | -3.0% | -4.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | TUSAC | 40 | 1.7% | -1.3% | -1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 37 | 1.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -7.1% | -6.9% | | Green |
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| -8.5% | -9.0% | -4.5% | -4.8% | | BNP |
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| -9.9% | -10.4% | | Total votes | 2,424 |
| 54% | 57% | 39% | 41% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 1.4% (top) / 0.6% (average) since May 2014 and 0.7% (top) / 0.1% Conservative to Labour (average) since 2010 Huntingdonshire, St Neots Priory Park - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Conservative | 448 | 45.5% | -2.9% | -10.3% | -3.9% | | UKIP | 337 | 25.5% | +7.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 199 | 20.2% | +5.4% | +3.0% | +9.9% | | Green |
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| -9.9% |
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| | Liberal Democrat |
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| -27.0% | -40.2% | | Total votes | 984 |
| 45% | 45% | 30% |
Swing Conservative to UKIP ~5% since May 2014
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Post by middleenglander on Nov 28, 2014 16:36:25 GMT
Melton, Asfordby - Conservative gain from Labour| Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 265 | 54.3% | +16.2% | +15.7% | +17.2% | +15.0% | | Labour | 129 | 26.4% | -7.7% | -7.0% | -4.8% | -0.6% | | UKIP | 94 | 19.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -27.8% | -28.1% | -31.7% | -33.6% | | Total votes | 488 |
| 40% | 40% | 40% | 43% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~12% since 2011 and around 10% since 2007 Midlothian, Midlothian East - Labour hold - based on first preference votes | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2012 | since 2007 | | Labour | 1,294 | 32.9% | -2.7% | -1.4% | | SNP | 1,260 | 32.1% | -10.8% | -2.5% | | Independent | 780 | 19.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 331 | 8.4% | -0.7% | -5.7% | | Green | 197 | 5.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 68 | 1.7% | from nowhere | -12.7% | | Previous Independent |
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| -11.1% |
| | Anti Cuts |
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| -1.3% |
| | Solidarity |
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| -1.4% | | Socialist |
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| -1.1% | | Total votes | 3,930 |
| 95% | 68% |
Swing SNP to Labour ~4.0% since 2012 and ~½% since 2007 Orkney, Kirkwall West & Orphir - Independent hold | Candidate | 2014 vote | 2014 share | | Leslie Manson | 647 | 57.5% | | Gillian Skuse | 281 | 25.0% | | Lorraine McBrearty | 142 | 12.6% | | Laurance Leonard (Deceased) | 55 | 4.9% | | Row 6 column 1 | 1,125 |
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Labour hold - amended for Labour vote 509 not 609 | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2010 | | Labour | 509 | 75.7% | +8.4% | -9.7% | +6.2% | | UKIP | 91 | 13.5% | -7.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 27 | 4.0% | -1.6% | -2.2% | -9.7% | | Green | 21 | 3.1% | -1.4% | -1.5% | -1.2% | | TUSAC | 13 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 11 | 1.6% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -10.8% | | Total votes | 772 |
| 70% | 78% | 31% |
Swing UKIP to Labour 7.7% since May 2014 otherwise not meaningful Oxford, Northfield Brook - Labour hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2010 | | Labour | 401 | 70.6% | -1.0% | -3.0% | +16.3% | | Conservative | 65 | 11.4% | -0.0% | +3.5% | -6.6% | | Green | 50 | 8.8% | -2.5% | -0.7% | +2.8% | | TUSAC | 34 | 6.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 3.2% | -2.5% | -5.7% | -18.5% | | Total votes | 568 |
| 56% | 74% | 23% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ½% since May 2014 and 3¼% since 2012 but Conservative to Labour 11½% since 2010 Oxfordshire, The Leys - Labour hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2013 | | Labour | 879 | 71.0% | -10.5% | | UKIP | 168 | 13.6% | from nowhere | | Conservative | 77 | 6.2% | -1.4% | | Green | 57 | 4.6% | -2.8% | | Liberal Democrat | 30 | 2.4% | -1.0% | | TUSAC | 27 | 2.2% | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,238 |
| 81% |
Swing not meaningful
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 28, 2014 19:11:03 GMT
Those dulled vowels make even Hell sound drab don't they? Try and say "urn the fern" without sounding like someone from 'Ull saying "on the phone". When I try it, it sounds like Peter Sellers' Inspector Clouseau. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 28, 2014 19:13:34 GMT
Not a phrase you'll hear very often. A thread on unique wins from one party to another could be fun. Wyre Forest might well feature, having functioning Independent Kidderminster Health and continuity Liberal parties. |
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 911
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Post by piperdave on Nov 28, 2014 19:29:49 GMT
I these were the 2012 first perferences 2012 - SNP 1,372/405 = 1,777, Lab 1,003/475 = 1,478, Ind 461, Con 379, SA-CC 52 could one argue that it is effectively a Labour gain since 2012 - or at least a swing to Labour? I think you have to start looking at having two results in Scottish council by-elections. Here, I would say Labour holds the seat, and Labour gains the ward. If it had been an SNP seat, then Labour gain the seat and the ward. If the SNP had topped first preferences but Labour won on transfers, then SNP hold the ward but Labour gain the seat. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 28, 2014 19:33:08 GMT
It's all to do with the Bible, because the Magi were from Beverley. After all, it does say that they came "from the East Riding on camels". I see??? Along the lines of 'Christ stopped at Beverley' and 'Joshua was the son of Nunthorpe' kind-of-thing'? Not sure the folk of Nunthorpe will appreciate being told they are from the East Riding! |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 28, 2014 19:59:28 GMT
The Labour candidate in Midlothian worked for Labour for years and was Ed Millibands press manager, which means he's managed to bring a fair number of M(S)Ps down into the area. Would you actually count that as an advantage?  |
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 28, 2014 20:05:09 GMT
Not a phrase you'll hear very often. A thread on unique wins from one party to another could be fun. Can I be the first to get in the technical Conservative gain from the DUP in Basingstoke last time? Could I stretch a point even further and say that Belfast East was a Lib Dem gain from the DUP in 2010? Battersea North was a Communist gain from Coalition Liberal in 1922, a Liberal gain from Communist in 1923 and a Communist gain from Liberal in 1924. |
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