Netherlands Local Elections

[Devonian]

The polls have just closed in today's Netherlands local elections. This from Electionista just now

electionista ‏@electionista 7m

Netherlands local elections - Ipsos forecast: Local parties 29.4% D66 12.8% VVD 12.2% CDA 10.9% PvdA 10.2% CU/SGP 8.1% SP 7.9% GL 4.9%

[Devonian]

Live results here

app.nos.nl/datavisualisatie/gemeenteraadsverkiezingen-2014/index.html#live

[iainbhx]

Unless I'm running into false friends, D66 are having a very good night in Amsterdam and local parties are going well in smaller municipalities.

[Deleted]

Hows Wilders party getting on?

[maxque]

Mar 20, 2014 0:39:06 GMT @barctom said:

Hows Wilders party getting on?

Not running in local elections, asking their voters to vote for local parties.

[iainbhx]

Mar 20, 2014 0:39:06 GMT @barctom said:

Hows Wilders party getting on?

Generally not running in the local elections.

[iainbhx]

For the first time since 1949, the PdvA are not the largest party in Amsterdam, D66 are. There is even a possible ruling coalition without them of D66/VVD/GL.

[Georg Ebner]

This time D'66 and PvdA are suffering heavy losses, while GL is gaining, and also local parties (with 50% counted raising from 28.?% to 33.?%).

The referendum on tougher SecurityLaws will be narrowly rejected.
The left North and UniversityTowns voted broadly against it, the BibleBelt for it.

[iain]

D66 haven’t done as badly as some predictions, they are undoubtedly one of the night’s losers, but the real concern will be in the PvdA and SP.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Mar 22, 2018 11:03:55 GMT @trident said:

Mar 20, 2014 4:37:35 GMT maxque said:

Not running in local elections, asking their voters to vote for local parties.

I assume that finding thousands of candidates to stand in local elections would be a particular challenge for a party that only has one member!

Or a foundation that only has one shareholder...

[mazuz]

- The PVV ran in 30 municipalities this time, 28 more than in 2014. They won at least one seat everywhere, but had a really bad performance overall. In The Hague they lost five seats and ended up with only two out of 45, in Rotterdam, where they used to perform really well in general and European elections, they only won one out of 45 seats. The PVV is at its lowest polling level in ten years and becoming more irrelevant every day as FvD are the new big thing.
- D66 actually had a very bad night. Which was expected, but doesn't make it any less bad.
- Big winners: local parties (again) and GL, who did very well in the progressive cities but have more trouble making inroads in other places, save for a few exceptions. The VVD also did relatively well, especially in the bigger cities: they came second in Rotterdam (+2 seats) and in The Hague (+3 seats). Impressive after eight years in government. And the Muslim parties also did well, DENK in particular, coming second with over 10% of the vote in Schiedam. The combined share of the vote of Muslim parties in Rotterdam was more than 10% as well.
- Losers: D66, PvdA (again), SP (rather unexpectedly, they lost almost everywhere), and PVV (of course they won a lot more seats than in 2014 because they ran in 28 more places, but they underperformed massively compared to their GE17 result in the places where they were standing).

Trends:
- Again, local parties win at the expense of national parties. In The Hague and Rotterdam, new city governments will likely be led by local populist law-and-order parties (would be a continuation in R'dam but a first in The Hague).
- Fragmentation on the local council increases; the average number of parties on a council is now eight, but 10+ has become common. This makes it more difficult to form local governments: coalitions consisting of four or five parties are almost becoming the rule rather than the exception. Of course, the political "color" of the separate parties will be less visibile in agreements struck between five parties, which might fuel distrust in "establishment" politics, lead to more volatility and fragmentation, etc. etc.
- Losses of the left. GL won, but SP and PvdA lost more (and D66, who are not left but still "progressive", lost too). Most of these losses do not directly benefit the right but instead benefit "one-issue" parties that will not be likely to participate in governments: elderly parties, Muslim parties, the Animal Party...
- Increasing polarization due to the rise of parties on the far left (Muslim parties, intersectionalist feminist far-left BIJ1 in Amsterdam) and the far right (PVV entering 28 new local councils, FvD winning three seats in Amsterdam).

And then we had a national referendum on a new law that would greatly increase the powers of the secret services, which was unexpectedly defeated by a small margin. The voting patterns were actually rather Britishly left vs. right: the youth, the highly educated progressives in the cities, minorities, and much of the white working-class opposed the law; conservatives and moderates, older people, people in rural areas (except for the North... another UK parallel), and religious Christians supported it. I voted against the law. The referendum result will be ignored as VVD, CDA and CU want the law anyway, but this will come at a political price, especially for D66.

[David Ashforth]

[greenhert]

My analysis: alansgreenthoughts.blogspot.co.uk/2018/03/groenlinking-it-up-in-der-nederlanden.html

[mazuz]

Solid piece, though linking the fact that GL won some seats in Bible Belt places to Klaver's CNV past seems a bit far-fetched to me. They did well in some places where they had never done well, but this is mostly because of GL's national profile in combination with the PvdA's implosion. It's more likely that these GL voters are non-Christians or not so devout Christians who don't let their religion influence their vote (former PvdA voters, most likely) -- and perhaps a few lefty Christians who find their local CU to be insufficiently green.

[David Ashforth]

Astonishing statistics about The Catholic People’s Party (KVP).

[johnloony]

Mar 31, 2018 16:59:03 GMT David Ashforth said:

Astonishing statistics about The Catholic People’s Party (KVP).

Was there some sort of peculiar feature of the electoral system? Perhaps it was the only party to put up a list of candidates in some places; perhaps the local authorities didn't do much anyway.

There seems to be some sort of discrepancy: the main Catholic Party in the 1930s seems to have been the RKSP (Roman Catholic State Party)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman-Catholic_State_Party

which did not become the Catholic People's Party until after 1945

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_People%27s_Party

whereas the Roman Catholic People's Party (RKVP) seems to have been only a minor party

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Catholic_People%27s_Party

even though the RKVP is the one named in the local elections maps from the 1930s (in purple in the thread above). So there might be something inaccurate about the figures or facts in the first place, unless I have misunderstood something.

[myth11]

I see denk won a number of seats in the big cities which makes me wonder if we ever had pr for uk local election would a denk style party rise up after all we did have the fairly short lived respect party.

[Merseymike]

Apr 1, 2018 19:28:49 GMT myth11 said:

I see denk won a number of seats in the big cities which makes me wonder if we ever had pr for uk local election would a denk style party rise up after all we did have the fairly short lived respect party.

But it didn't really take off other than in Bradford and Tower Hamlets, and to a lesser extent Birmingham
I think the UK Muslim population think they do better when they are part of mainstream parties.

[Georg Ebner]

As the elections for provinces (and as a consequence the Senate) are coming closer, an OverView of the recent coaltions:

[Foggy]

As I'm reading a book about the Frisians at the moment, it's interesting to see that the FNP have been part of the two most recent coalitions in their region.