Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 9:35:35 GMT
Pleased we were up both here and in Motherwell. Obviously not from the highest base in the world. LDs - losing to Scottish UKIP isn't something to be proud of. Apparently, according to the neutral voices, the Conservative guy was the best all round candidate. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 9:38:08 GMT
some interesting claims from the Snips about their Indy canvassing...basically leading 41-37. some may call that desperate |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 24, 2014 9:58:23 GMT
Pleased we were up both here and in Motherwell. Obviously not from the highest base in the world. LDs - losing to Scottish UKIP isn't something to be proud of. Knowing rather little about the party in Scotland- do you think the Tory vote collapse of the last 40 years has finally bottomed out? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 10:02:56 GMT
Pleased we were up both here and in Motherwell. Obviously not from the highest base in the world. LDs - losing to Scottish UKIP isn't something to be proud of. Knowing rather little about the party in Scotland- do you think the Tory vote collapse of the last 40 years has finally bottomed out? Lol, you are probably asking the wrong person. Obviously Fraser and Boogie would be the best people, followed by general experts like Pete, EAL or DB. IMHO yes, partially because of the Lib Dem total collapse and partially because we are no longer public enemy no 1. Labour and SNP now spend pretty much all their time going for each other rather than us - indeed they have to be rather pleasant to us in case they need us as coalition partners. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 10:06:19 GMT
Pleased we were up both here and in Motherwell. Obviously not from the highest base in the world. LDs - losing to Scottish UKIP isn't something to be proud of. Knowing rather little about the party in Scotland- do you think the Tory vote collapse of the last 40 years has finally bottomed out? Hard to say, but the "Thatcher" bogey has been exorcised by the spectre of Clegg. Too much bother to hate two parties so maybe the Conservatives will gain from the contempt felt for Clegg. Never understood why he just did not support a minority government, he must have known he would lose the tactical voters. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 24, 2014 10:42:30 GMT
In Motherwell, the actual numerical vote for the Tories was still down, so the increase in vote share may just be down to differential turnout more than anything else. The Lib Dem collapse is definitely benefiting the Tories to some extent as well.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 10:48:12 GMT
I am assuming that the snips will release their canvass data on the referendum so their claims can be scrutinized?
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 11:24:37 GMT
Knowing rather little about the party in Scotland- do you think the Tory vote collapse of the last 40 years has finally bottomed out? I'm not entirely sure how this has been calculated, but Wiki has the 2007 notional Conservative vote in this seat as 14.2%, which sounds plausible considering that they got 15.1% in the old Dunfermline East in 2007. I suspect it's more that they got heavily squeezed by the SNP in 2011 specifically rather than that the Conservatives are gaining new votes from somewhere. Parts of this seat are fairly genteel Edinburgh commuter towns, even though the core of it is not. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 11:29:12 GMT
Parts of this seat are fairly genteel Edinburgh commuter towns, even though the core of it is not. Defo a half way house to the stockbroker belt, half million pound villas in Dalgetty Bay are not rare. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 24, 2014 11:41:24 GMT
some interesting claims from the Snips about their Indy canvassing...basically leading 41-37. some may call that desperate It is what the CyberNats are pushing today, unsurprisingly - anything to avoid talking about the actual result  |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 24, 2014 11:49:36 GMT
some interesting claims from the Snips about their Indy canvassing...basically leading 41-37. some may call that desperate Doorstep feedback from the Donside by-election suggests delusional might be a better adjective to use. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 14:20:44 GMT
N.b Some of the nats maybe beginning to crack. Perhaps Pete Wisharts twatter remarks were meant to be cutting and funny,well they missed both targets in that case.
By the width of the Atlantic.
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Post by Robert on Jan 24, 2014 15:20:39 GMT
Taking Devilincarnate's question I have used Kristofer Keane's excellent website-Scottish Elections. Since the start of October last year there have been 10 by-elections in Scotland both Holyrood and council. (I hope I have analysed them correctly)
The Tory share has risen in percentage terms (often from very low levels) in all 10 of those elections. That is against the previous full Parliamentary or council election figure.
The Labour share has risen in 6 of those elections and fallen in 3 (No candidate in Caithness). SNP are down in 8 and up in 2. The LDs are down in 5 and up in 2 (they failed to put up a candidate in 3 contests).
Having provided this analysis, what is now certain, is that the Tory share will fall in the next by-election. (We don't have long to wait to see if I have blighted the Tory chances!!)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 24, 2014 16:25:39 GMT
I'd be rather surprised if the Conservative vote share isn't up in Buckie next week. They dropped over a third of their vote from 2007 to 2012, so there's definite grounds for recovery. The SNP vote could fall a bit and in 2012 both independants had incumbency on their side, so in a small field there's definitely scope for an increase.
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johnr
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by johnr on Jan 24, 2014 21:43:20 GMT
Might be the first by election in which the SNP manage to win!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 25, 2014 2:05:46 GMT
N.b Some of the nats maybe beginning to crack. Perhaps Pete Wisharts twatter remarks were meant to be cutting and funny,well they missed both targets in that case. By the width of the Atlantic. Rather strange twatters, and now the defeated SNP candidate has opened up her twitter account she seems to be just another young person following in the family business and probably has never questioned the truth and logic behind the socialisation process that she has endured. Reading the tweets and links I have not encountered so much paranoia combined with a total absence of reality since I gave up the weed in 74, and 76, and 79 and 84. |
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