Local Council by-elections 24th October 2024

[Tony Otim]

Just the 13 this week:

BOURNEMOUTH, CHRISTCHURCH & POOLE UA; Musclff & Strouden Park (Ind died)
Candidates:
BLACKWELL-WHITEHEAD, Richard John (Liberal Democrat)
HOULDEY, Julie-Anne (Independent)
KILINC, Eyyup (Labour)
MANN, Roger Julian Lawton (Green)
O’LUBY, Conor Niall (Independent)
ROGERS, Peter Anthony (Independent)
SLADE, Toby Edward George (Conservative)

2023: Ind 1595, 1227, 1058, 879; Con 894, 870, 817; Lab 724, 703, 640; LD 195, 188, 157
2019: Ind 2129, 1581, 846, 652; Con 1022, 973, 841; Grn 694; UKIP 621; Lab 531, 427, 410

Current Council: LD 28; Con 12; Lab 10; Christchurch Ind Grp 8; Grn 6; Poole People 5; Ind Grp 2; None 2; Poole Engage 2; 1 vacancy



CALDERDALE MBC; Calder (Lab resigned following election as MP for Calder Valley)
Candidates:
BORROWS, Scott (Independent)
CARTER, Brian Matthew (Conservative)
McNEILL, Jim (SDP)
TIMBERS, Jonathan Charles (Labour)
TURNER, Kieran Luke (Green)
WADSWORTH, Chris (Liberal Democrat)

2024: Lab 3008; Grn 638; Con 574; LD 222
2023: Lab 2615; Grn 617; Con 555; LD 509; Ind 110
2022: Lab 3046; Con 745; Grn 465; LD 339; Frdm All 57
2021: Lab 3399; Con 936; Grn 480; LD 220; Frdm All 90
2019: Lab 2517; Grn 757; LD 681; Con 624
2018: Lab 3075; Con 1015; LD 460; Grn 399
2016: Lab 2310; LD 1424; Grn 444; Con 438
2015: Lab 2762; Con 1412; Grn 1396; LD 688; UKIP 581; Ind 177
2014: Lab 1547; Grn 817; LD 628; Con 595; Ind 466
2012: LD 1599; Lab 1454; Grn 541; Con 477
2011: Lab 1660; LD 1042; Con 915; Grn 754; Ind 262
2010: LD 2775; Con 1575; Lab 1538; Grn 762
2008: LD 1188; Lab 1135; Con 890; Grn 486
2007: LD 1331; Lab 1254; Grn 821
2006: LD 1222; Lab 884; Grn 780; Con 702
2004: LD 1515, 1485, 1436; Grn 1210; Lab 1183, 1007, 1000; Con 1062, 934, 885; Red & Grn All 347, 259

Vacancy is for the 2024 term – all outs on new boundaries due in 2026. Chris Wadsworth was the Lib Dem candidate here in May. Kieran Turner was the Green candidate for Calder Valley at the General Election whilst Jim McNeill (SDP) also stood there. Turner had stood in Todmorden in May, as had Brian Carter (Con).

Current Council: Lab 28; Con 11; LD 6; Grn 3; Ind 1; WP 1; 1 vacancy



CRAWLEY DC; Northgate & West Green (Lab resigned following election as MP for Crawley)
Candidates:
ABU MOSA, Khayla (Labour)
BAMIEH, Linda (Workers Party)
BURNHAM, Robin (TUSC)
CHARTERS, Tim (Reform UK)
PARK, Nick (Green)
PURDY, Jonathan (Conservative)

2024: Lab 1188; Con 641; Grn 278; TUSC 113
2023: Lab 1136; Con 696; Grn 249
2022: Lab 1021; Con 747; Grn 219; LD 134
2021: Lab 1097; Con 965; Ind 287; LD 213
2019: Lab 1126, 1016, 996; Con 827, 734, 662; Grn 419; LD 366

Vacancy is for the 2023-27 term. Linda Bamieh (WP), Robin Burnham (TUSC) and Tim Charters (Reform) all contested Crawley at the General Election for their respective parties, with Burnham also having stood in Bewbush & North Broadfield in May. Nick Park (Grn) stood here in May, whilst Jonathan Purdy (Con) stood in Ifield.

Current Council: Lab 24; Con 11; 1 vacancy



DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Prestatyn North ( Lab resigned following election as MP for Clwyd North)
Candidates:
FLYNN, Tony (Independent)
FROBISHER, Gerry (Reform UK)
GIBSON, Neil (Labour)
KIRWAN, Keith Richard (Liberal Democrat)
PENLINGTON, Paul (Plaid Cymru)
SAMPSON, Anton (Conservative)

2022: Lab 733, 696, 682; Con 507, 470, 405; PC 380, 278, 250; Ind 344, 310, 255

The Independent lists current Conservative party membership and was the top Consrvative candidate here in 2022 and former cllr for the ward on previous boundaries. Paul Penlington was the top Plaid candidate here in 2022 and their candidate for Clwyd East (which contains this ward) at the General Election. Gerry Frobisher (Reform) stood in Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan in 2022 for the Conservatives (the 3rd Conservative here was Sharon Frobisher whom I’m guessing may be related). Anton Sampson (Con) stood in Prestatyn East and Conservative cllr for that ward from 2015-22.

Current Council: Lab 15; Ind 13; PC 8; Con 8; Grn 2; Non-aligned 1; 1 vacancy



EAST LINDSEY DC; Croft (Con died)
Candidates:
ANDERSON, Mark Crawford (Labour)
COLLINS, Paul (Independent)
DRURY, Carl (Conservative)
FINDLEY, Adrian (Skegness Urban District Society (SUDS))
GASKELL, Phil (Green)
TUCKER, David Brian (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Con Unopp
2019: Con 406; Ind 130; Lab 48; SUDS 48
2015: Con 738; Independence from Europe 355

In 2023, Mark Anderson (Lab) stood in St Clements, a Paul Collins stood for Labour in Scarborough & Seacroft and Adrian Findley stood there for SUDS, Carl Drury (Con) stood in Friskney and Phil Gaskell (Grn) in Winthorpe. Adrian Findley also contested the Wainfleet county division, which contains half this ward, in 2021.

Current Council: Con 25; EL Ind Grp 14; Lab 6; SUDS 5; District Ind/LD 2; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



GATESHEAD MBC; Whickham North (LD resigned)
Candidates:
ABELSON, Robert (Conservative)
BOWE, Jeff (Labour)
CHANSE, Pat (Green)
CRAIG, Susan (Liberal Democrat)

2024: LD 1331; Lab 614; Con 204; Grn 149
2023: LD 1497; Lab 647; Con 197
2022: LD 1510; Lab 707; Con 255
2021: LD 1464; Lab 574; Con 448; Grn 92
2019: LD 1637; Lab 524; Con 164
2018: LD 1543; Lab 768; Con 255
2016: LD 1510; Lab 747; UKIP 264; Con 101
2015: LD 1791; Lab 1451; UKIP 545; Con 371; Grn 117
2014: LD 1264; Lab 963; UKIP 445; Con 144
2012: LD 1282; Lab 1188; Con 164
2011: LD 1426; Lab 1402; Con 276
2010: LD 2159; Lab 1385; Con 486; BNP 289
2008: LD 1363; Lab 701; Con 336; BNP 288
2007: LD 1484; Lab 854; Con 288
2006: LD 1647; Lab 788; Con 218
2004: LD 1829, 1803, 1743; Lab 1196, 1157, 1135; Con 339, 323, 300

Vacancy is for the 2024 term – all-outs due in 2026. Jeff Bowe has been the Labour candidate here in every election since 2019. In May, Pat Chanse stood for the Greens in Crawcrook & Greenside.

Current Council: Lab 47; LD 17; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



ISLE OF ANGLESEY UA; Talybolion ( PC resigned following election as MP for Ynys Mon)
Candidates:
BARLOW, Tomos Iwan (Plaid Werdd Cymru [Green])
EVANS, David Michael (Conservative)
HUGHES, Kenneth Pritchard (Independent)
WILLIAMS, Dafydd Arthur (Plaid Cymru)

2022: PC 1025, 711, 626; Ind 597, 480, 247; Con 365, 321, 259; Grn 142; Heritage 48

Kenneth Hughes was the top Independent here in 2022 and is former independent cllr for the ward on previous boundaries from 2013-17.

Current Council: PC 20; Anglesey Ind 7 (incl 1 LD); Ind Grp 4; Lab 3; 1 vacancy



MIDDLESBROUGH UA; Hemlington (Lab died)
Candidates:
AMEEN, Mehmoona Mirsab (Workers Party)
COOPER, Barrie (Independent)
HENDERSON, Chris (Liberal Democrats)
MELVIN, Lewis James (Conservative)
MOHAN, Tom (Labour)

2023: Lab 620, 577; Ind 207, 181, 99; Con 153, 145
2019: Ind 454, 365; Lab 427, 422; Con 140, 104
2015: Lab 1474, 1377; UKIP 489; Ind 378; Con 347

Mehmoona Ameen (WP) stood in Middlesbrough & Thornaby East at the General Election (this ward is in Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland). Last year, Barrie Cooper (Ind) stood in Newport, where he was defending his seat won in 2019 as an independent, whilst Tom Mohan stood in Ladgate and failed to defend the seat for Labour.

Current Council: Lab 23; Middlesbrough Ind Cllr All (MICA) 12; Con 4; Ind 2; LD 2; Marton East Ind Grp 2; 1 vacancy



MONMOUTHSHIRE UA; Town (Lab resigned following election as MP for Monmouthshire)
Candidates:
ATKIN, Jackie (Labour)
BECKER, Jez (Liberal Democrat)
NEWELL, Martin Jason (Conservative)
ROLLINGS, Paul (Green)

2022: Lab 339; Con 212; Ind 142; Grn 39

In 2022, Jez Becker (LD) stood in Chepstow Castle & Larkfield and Paul Rollings (Grn) in St Arvans.

Current Council: Lab 21; Con 18; Ind Grp 4; Grn 1; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



NEW FOREST DC; Barton & Becton (Con died)
Candidates:
ADAMS, John Huw (Conservative)
DAVIES, Wynford Bevan (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Con 1147, 1087; LD 489, 421; Grn 310, 216; Lab 200

In 2023, John Adams (Con) stood in Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East and Wyn Davies (LD) in Milton.

Current Council: Con 25; LD 14; Ind 4; Grn 3; Lab 1; 1 vacancy



SOUTH CAMBRIDGESHIRE DC; Histon & Impington (LD resigned following election as MP for South Cambridgeshire)
FISHER, Kathryn Rose Mercedes (Green)
MASON, William (Labour)
PELBROUGH-POWER, Clive (Conservative)
RIXON, James (Liberal Democrat)
STONHAM, Edd (Indepedent)

2022: LD 2133, 1615, 1279; Ind 1106; Lab 753, 626, 498; Con 611, 478, 409; Grn 594
2018: LD 1508, 1217, 1159; Ind 1155, 895; Lab 842, 775, 669; Con 695, 581, 506; Grn 242, 202, 116

Kathryn Fisher was the Green candidate for St Neots & Mid Cambridgeshire (which contains this ward) at the General Election. Edd Stonham was the indy here in 2022 and second Indy in 2018. He is former cllr for the ward on previous boundaries, elected as Independent in 2014 and LD in 2010.

Current Council: LD 34; Con 9; Ind 1; 1 vacancy



SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Middleforth (Lab vacancy)
Candidates:
BURROWS, Joan Mary (Conservative)
BURTON-JOHNSON, Clare (Liberal Democrat)
CRAWFORD-LANE, Laura Elizabeth (Labour)
MOORBY, Ann (Green)

2023: Lab 957, 940, 913; Con 418, 401, 360; LD 271, 259, 235
2019: Lab 869, 824, 807; Con 673, 666, 645; LD 286
2015: Lab 1754, 1635, 1573; Con 1280, 1239, 1110; UKIP 787; LD 364

Clare Burton Johnson was the top LD candidate last year, when Joan Burrows (Con) stood in Charnock. She is also county councillor for Penwortham East & Walton-le-Dale division (which contains half this ward and was also contested by Burton-Johnson (LD) in 2021)).

Current Council: Lab 27; Con 15; LD 5; Ind 1; 2 vacancies



SURREY HEATH DC; Old Dean (Con resigned)
Candidates:
BELNIK, Tal (Independent)
GIBBARD, Catherine Sarah (Conservative)
GOGGIN, Sam (Reform UK)
HOUGH, Dave (Liberal Democrat)
WILSON, Charlie George Kenneth (Labour)

2023: Con 563, 504; Lab 393, 382
2019: Lab 474, 386; Con 455, 446

Sam(antha) Goggin was the Reform candidate in Surrey Heath at the General election and stood in Bagshot last May.

Current Council: LD 23; Con 6; Ind 3; Lab 2; 1 vacancy

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Sept 30, 2024 20:17:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Prestatyn North ( Lab resigned following election as MP for Clwyd North)

PENLINGTON, Paul (Plaid Cymru)

The Independent lists current Conservative party membership and was the top Consrvative candidate here in 2022. Paul Penlington was the top Plaid candidate here in 2022 and their candidate for Clwyd East (which contains this ward) at the General Election. Gerry Frobisher (Reform) stood in Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan in 2022 for the Conservatives (the 3rd Conservative here was Sharon Frobisher whom I’m guessing may be related). Anton Sampson (Con) stood in Prestatyn East and Conservative cllr for that ward from 2015-22.

Paul Penlington has a longer and very interesting history. Stood as Liberal Democrat in Prestatyn Central in 2008 but lost. Then defected to Labour, and stood in Prestatyn North in 2012 - but was the unfortunate victim of a tallying mistake when his winning vote was ascribed instead to Allan Pennington (a Conservative candidate). This mistake was eventually put right through an election petition but this took months to resolve. He held his seat by two votes in 2017, but then in June 2020 joined Plaid Cymru. He was defeated standing for re-election as a Plaid Cymru candidate in 2022.

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

SOUTH RIBBLE DC; Middleforth (Lab vacancy)

[YL]

I'm a bit surprised that there's no Reform UK candidate in Croft (East Lindsey), which is in a constituency they hold.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 1, 2024 6:55:30 GMT YL said:

I'm a bit surprised that there's no Reform UK candidate in Croft (East Lindsey), which is in a constituency they hold.

They seem to be contesting just under a third of contests this month, but with little correlation between where they're standing and the wards they would probably do best in, suggesting that local organisation is still very much hit and miss.

[Adam Gray]

Oct 1, 2024 7:02:34 GMT Tony Otim said:

Oct 1, 2024 6:55:30 GMT YL said:

I'm a bit surprised that there's no Reform UK candidate in Croft (East Lindsey), which is in a constituency they hold.

They seem to be contesting just under a third of contests this month, but with little correlation between where they're standing and the wards they would probably do best in, suggesting that local organisation is still very much hit and miss.

To be slightly fair to Reform, it takes a lot of time for a party to organise at grassroots sufficient to be able to contest local elections. And Reform is basically a new party if we regard Farage's return as leader as the moment the party became the more serious force it was at the GE.

Labour, for example, was not contesting the vast majority of council seats in London boroughs until the 1919 council elections [though there hadn't been local elections before that since 1912] so, basically, two decades after it was founded. Labour won the odd seat here and there in London in 1903 and 1906 but was nothing special as an electoral force beyond a handful of ultra-deprived east end boroughs, and would have presumably attracted the same sort of "aren't they rubbish?" criticism if social media had been around back then. 

Reform lacks the organisational backing Labour got from the Trade Unions and from its class roots when such things meant far more than they do today.  I agree that Reform should be trying to contest by-elections (and not just contesting them but investing in trying to win them) if for no other reason than it would give them momentum and publicity. But UKIP even at its height couldn't and Brexit Party wasn't around long enough to try, so this still incredibly narrow, concentrated party probably isn't going to be able to for some time, if at all.

[No Offence Alan]

Oct 1, 2024 14:29:48 GMT Adam Gray said:

Oct 1, 2024 7:02:34 GMT Tony Otim said:

They seem to be contesting just under a third of contests this month, but with little correlation between where they're standing and the wards they would probably do best in, suggesting that local organisation is still very much hit and miss.

To be slightly fair to Reform, it takes a lot of time for a party to organise at grassroots sufficient to be able to contest local elections. And Reform is basically a new party if we regard Farage's return as leader as the moment the party became the more serious force it was at the GE.

Labour, for example, was not contesting the vast majority of council seats in London boroughs until the 1919 council elections [though there hadn't been local elections before that since 1912] so, basically, two decades after it was founded. Labour won the odd seat here and there in London in 1903 and 1906 but was nothing special as an electoral force beyond a handful of ultra-deprived east end boroughs, and would have presumably attracted the same sort of "aren't they rubbish?" criticism if social media had been around back then. 

Reform lacks the organisational backing Labour got from the Trade Unions and from its class roots when such things meant far more than they do today.  I agree that Reform should be trying to contest by-elections (and not just contesting them but investing in trying to win them) if for no other reason than it would give them momentum and publicity. But UKIP even at its height couldn't and Brexit Party wasn't around long enough to try, so this still incredibly narrow, concentrated party probably isn't going to be able to for some time, if at all.

Reform's problem is that the next elections in May 2025 were mostly fought in 2021, at Boris's Covid peak of popularity, so next May is the best time to be seen to make an impact.

[Adam Gray]

I don't think that's their problem: I'm sure they'll field a load of candidates in southern counties and probably struggle in northern and north Midlands counties. County councils are easier to contest than districts because there are many fewer county divisions than district wards, and we're still eight months out.

UKIP contested 77% of seats in 2013 and 49% in post-EU referendum 2017 so the question is: how much does Reform resemble UKIP organisationally? I suspect they're pretty similar and will be able to field a lot of candidates.

No, Reform's problem is that of UKIP. Their vote is (beyond large urban areas) very evenly spread, so they're likely to do what they did in the General Election: pull Conservative candidates down to defeat without winning in more than a few divisions. There's just a question of how much Labour, now it's in government, will lose to offset the damage Reform does to Conservative, either by its vote staying at home (as the by-elections seem to be demonstrating) or switching to parties seen as more progressive, or to anyone that isn't them or the Conservatives.

I don't think we're going to see many Labour to Conservative switchers, yet. Indeed, given how low Labour's GE vote share was, that may not be as much of a feature as we head towards mid term as is typical. It just might be that this fragmented electoral battleground may see seats falling to the Tories on very low %s just as they fell to Labour on very low %s in July.

[certain]

Also I'm a bit surprised there's no Reform candidate in Whickham North (Gateshead).

Two leaflets from Lib Dems, nothing else so far.

[peterski]

It will be interesting to see how the Workers Party do in Hemlington. Although severely deprived Hemmo is short on Muslims and students making it less fertile territory than more central Middlesbrough wards. The absence of Reform is compensated for by the appearance of Barrie Cooper who will attract a similar demographic.

[sanders]

Oct 1, 2024 6:55:30 GMT YL said:

I'm a bit surprised that there's no Reform UK candidate in Croft (East Lindsey), which is in a constituency they hold.

I'm not, they don't have people. They really ought to prioritise, however. They may have carried that ward! 

[ClevelandYorks]

Oct 3, 2024 4:27:37 GMT peterski said:

It will be interesting to see how the Workers Party do in Hemlington.

Very poorly I’d think. From my soundings this will be closely fought between the two main parties. Labour should come out on top as this is traditionally their best ward in Boro South and their candidate is the only one with a Hemlington address. Houchen did win the ward in the mayoral election however.

[The Bishop]

There have been actual ward breakdowns of May's result?

[jamesdoyle]

Tony Otim: Calderdale, 2016, Green should be 444 not 44.

[Tony Otim]

Oct 18, 2024 12:07:31 GMT jamesdoyle said:

Tony Otim: Calderdale, 2016, Green should be 444 not 44.

Fat fingers...

Corrected, thanks

[doktorb🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️]

Sept 30, 2024 21:06:11 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Sept 30, 2024 20:17:55 GMT Tony Otim said:

DENBIGHSHIRE UA; Prestatyn North ( Lab resigned following election as MP for Clwyd North)

PENLINGTON, Paul (Plaid Cymru)

The Independent lists current Conservative party membership and was the top Consrvative candidate here in 2022. Paul Penlington was the top Plaid candidate here in 2022 and their candidate for Clwyd East (which contains this ward) at the General Election. Gerry Frobisher (Reform) stood in Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan in 2022 for the Conservatives (the 3rd Conservative here was Sharon Frobisher whom I’m guessing may be related). Anton Sampson (Con) stood in Prestatyn East and Conservative cllr for that ward from 2015-22.

Paul Penlington has a longer and very interesting history. Stood as Liberal Democrat in Prestatyn Central in 2008 but lost. Then defected to Labour, and stood in Prestatyn North in 2012 - but was the unfortunate victim of a tallying mistake when his winning vote was ascribed instead to Allan Pennington (a Conservative candidate). This mistake was eventually put right through an election petition but this took months to resolve. He held his seat by two votes in 2017, but then in June 2020 joined Plaid Cymru. He was defeated standing for re-election as a Plaid Cymru candidate in 2022.

An accidental councillor called Pennington, is it?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

That comparison was made by several people at the time, indeed.

[andrewteale]

Just to let everyone know that Andrew's Previews is moving address to andrewspreviews.substack.com from this week.

[Robert Waller]

Oct 22, 2024 18:47:15 GMT andrewteale said:

Just to let everyone know that Andrew's Previews is moving address to andrewspreviews.substack.com from this week.

I just clicked on that link and it came back here. Twice.

[andrewp]

Oct 22, 2024 19:09:45 GMT Robert Waller said:

Oct 22, 2024 18:47:15 GMT andrewteale said:

Just to let everyone know that Andrew's Previews is moving address to andrewspreviews.substack.com from this week.

I just clicked on that link and it came back here. Twice.

Same for me too.