Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,842 
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Post by Crimson King on Oct 25, 2024 14:48:15 GMT
not with only two sigs needed (candate and one other if all else fails) Two signatures didn't make a huge difference to any parties in 2021 compared to previous county elections? It's not just the signatures, it's the logistics of getting volunteers to travel to the various localities. (The likelihood of them having a willing candidate in each division, very small!) Perhaps I misunderstood you? Assuming there is a candidate, which I had thought you had, (“candidates are one thing”) getting two signatures on the nomination forms is a massively easier task in an area with minimal active organisation than ten, I can tell you from bitter experience! Put another way - if you can find a candidate based in a ward with at least one friend then job done, If there is someone to persuade someone outside the ward to stand, or keen enough to stand themself then again getting the two additional sigs is a relatively small job |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 25, 2024 15:14:54 GMT
Two signatures didn't make a huge difference to any parties in 2021 compared to previous county elections? It's not just the signatures, it's the logistics of getting volunteers to travel to the various localities. (The likelihood of them having a willing candidate in each division, very small!) Perhaps I misunderstood you? Assuming there is a candidate, which I had thought you had, (“candidates are one thing”) getting two signatures on the nomination forms is a massively easier task in an area with minimal active organisation than ten, I can tell you from bitter experience! Put another way - if you can find a candidate based in a ward with at least one friend then job done, If there is someone to persuade someone outside the ward to stand, or keen enough to stand themself then again getting the two additional sigs is a relatively small job From experience in a party with, historically, far less comprehensively-established geographic coverage of organisation....it's a totally different matter. Reform fall into that camp, regardless of any more substantial financial resources. (We maybe can return to this, once the SoPNs are out next year and we know how many uncontested elections have taken place!) |
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swanarcadian
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 25, 2024 15:37:52 GMT
A more mixed week than last, perhaps. By and large, Conservatives are performing best against Labour candidates, though perhaps not so much in London.
With Lib Dems it seems more hit and miss - they won Old Dean (congratulations on that) from us, but we have seen results going the other way too.
Where Reform intervene, we do struggle more. But their interventions seem to be handing more seats to parties on the left rather than benefiting Reform themselves. Farage’s attempt to poach our councillors is in one way flattering, but it does seem calculated and timed to prevent any boost the Conservatives might get when our new leader is elected.
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Post by stodge on Oct 25, 2024 15:56:36 GMT
A more mixed week than last, perhaps. By and large, Conservatives are performing best against Labour candidates, though perhaps not so much in London. With Lib Dems it seems more hit and miss - they won Old Dean (congratulations on that) from us, but we have seen results going the other way too. Where Reform intervene, we do struggle more. But their interventions seem to be handing more seats to parties on the left rather than benefiting Reform themselves. Farage’s attempt to poach our councillors is in one way flattering, but it does seem calculated and timed to prevent any boost the Conservatives might get when our new leader is elected. I've not looked at turnout numbers but that is I suspect the real story. We saw after 1997 a marked fall in Council by-election turnouts - the 1998 round had about a 30% turnout. The core Conservative vote, more motivated yes but older but more reliable in terms of turning out or putting in their postal vote, was constant and that was often more than enough against the anti-Conservative vote, motivated during periods of Conservative Government, but less so once the Party was out of power, So in a Ward which might have polled 500-300 against the Conservatives when the latter were in Government becomes 200-300 when the party is in Opposition thus a gain for the Conservatives. I suspect the vote share moves often reflect that - a constant Conservative vote (numerically) leading to a big rise in vote share when the turnout falls. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 16:33:45 GMT
Generally speaking, and oversimplifying it a bit, the Conservatives did best where Labour is (or are perceived to be) the establishment - Wales and the North East. I'm defining 'did best' as put on vote share and / or gained a seat. I know they obviously didn't win the Middlesbrough seat, but they got a good increase, didn't they?
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ilerda
Conservative
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Post by ilerda on Oct 25, 2024 17:10:40 GMT
I think a lot will depend on the approach taken - if it's left to local parties coverage may be patchy as we see in the by-elections, if there's more of a national push for candidates as there was for the general then I would expect a much better coverage. It has been reported that Reform is prioritising next May over local byelections, so that would point to the latter. This seems like a false choice to me. If you’re actively working to get full coverage for May counties and unitaries then I would imagine a lot of by-elections will be in areas also covered by those. And if it’s an area without May elections then what else has the local branch/organiser got to fill their time with if not recruiting a by-election candidate? |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 25, 2024 17:31:04 GMT
It has been reported that Reform is prioritising next May over local byelections, so that would point to the latter. This seems like a false choice to me. If you’re actively working to get full coverage for May counties and unitaries then I would imagine a lot of by-elections will be in areas also covered by those. And if it’s an area without May elections then what else has the local branch/organiser got to fill their time with if not recruiting a by-election candidate? Again, this seems to be assuming that all the structures are in place for everything to just 'happen'. "Areas already covered"? Huh? "Local organiser"? Huh? |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 25, 2024 18:17:32 GMT
There were 13 seats contested last night with Labour defending 6 but only 2 had Reform candidates. The only other Reform candidate was in Surrey Heath: Old Dean where the Liberal Democrats gained the seat from a Conservative. There were 4 Labour seats where there was no Reform standing. All swings are based on average votes where applicable. * Calderdale: Calder where Labour held the seat but with a 22.6% swing Labour to Green since earlier this year, * Middlesbrough: Hemlington another Labour hold but with a 10.8% swing Labour tro Conservative since 2003, * Monmouthshire: Town a Conservative gain on a 22.6% swing Labour to Conservative since 2022 and * South Ribble: Middleforth another Conservative gain on a 24.1% swing Labour to Conservative since 2023. These swings are mainly higher than last week. The analysis below again shows the three seats where there was a Reform candidate along with an assessment IF all the Reform votes were transferred to the Conservative - again I know. | Seat | Result | Actual swing | Reform share | Revised result | Revised swing | | Crawley: Northgate & West Green (2024) | Labour hold | 6.5% Lab to Con | 16.0% | Conservative gain | 14.5% | | Denbighshire: Prestatyn North (2022) | Conservative gain | 10.5% Lab to Con | 19.2% | Conservative gain | 20.1% | | Surrey Heath: Old Dean | Liberal Democrat gain | not applicable | 12.4% | Recount | not applicable |
There are 7 by-elections next week, Labour defend just 2 seats and there are 3 Reform candidates - one each in Green, Labour and Liberal Democrat defences. |
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r34t
Non-Aligned
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Post by r34t on Oct 25, 2024 21:31:56 GMT
not with only two sigs needed (candate and one other if all else fails) Two signatures didn't make a huge difference to any parties in 2021 compared to previous county elections? It's not just the signatures, it's the logistics of getting volunteers to travel to the various localities. (The likelihood of them having a willing candidate in each division, very small!) Getting a willing mug volunteer & then only 2 sigs not 10 is much MUCH simpler I can assure you. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 25, 2024 22:05:20 GMT
Another respectable week for the Tories, but the Old Dean result is a cause for concern. Working close by (in Aldershot), Old Dean has a reputation for being white van man territory, heavily in favour of Brexit etc. Not somewhere you would associate the Lib Dems, that's for sure ... though their July win in Surrey Heath will have helped them to a certain degree. Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! |
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Oct 25, 2024 22:24:38 GMT
The BCP result did rather surprise me, especially the size of the Tory majority. This is by no means a ward where Conservative is the default option, possibly the new independent failed to inspire (the indy on 400 votes that is, who was endorsed by the two sitting councillors). Incidentally, according to my parents who were again working as poll clerks, there was a change in polling station for many people with several turning up at the wrong station, which may have pushed turnout down above and beyond it being a windy autumn day.
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
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Post by cathyc on Oct 25, 2024 22:36:00 GMT
Another respectable week for the Tories, but the Old Dean result is a cause for concern. Working close by (in Aldershot), Old Dean has a reputation for being white van man territory, heavily in favour of Brexit etc. Not somewhere you would associate the Lib Dems, that's for sure ... though their July win in Surrey Heath will have helped them to a certain degree. Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! Hello, wake up. I think you're on the wrong bus again. This is an elections forum. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 25, 2024 22:44:19 GMT
Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! Hello, wake up. I think you're on the wrong bus again. This is an elections forum. Bus! I have heard of them! Perhaps the sullen drab women I see on them as my Uber speeds by contain a version of you berating some poor old codger who you thought was me? My comments hold good even for the superheated young zealots in the damp and slimy part of this Forum. What you and they are doing is not politics but a mixture of navel-gazing, wish-fulfilment and gormless divination. Get over it. |
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cathyc
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Post by cathyc on Oct 25, 2024 22:57:20 GMT
Hello, wake up. I think you're on the wrong bus again. This is an elections forum. Bus! I have heard of them! Perhaps the sullen drab women I see on them as my Uber speeds by contain a version of you berating some poor old codger who you thought was me? My comments hold good even for the superheated young zealots in the damp and slimy part of this Forum. What you and they are doing is not politics but a mixture of navel-gazing, wish-fulfilment and gormless divination. Get over it. Then maybe you should find a forum about the cinema to post your boreathon dross about whatever film you've rewatched and moved from #2896 to #9865. It might be a bit radical, but I think the discussion of local election results is a perfectly reasonable topic for an elections forum. You don't even believe in democracy anyway. It's not that you don't think it is working but it's quite clear that you don't think it does work at all. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 25, 2024 23:12:48 GMT
Bus! I have heard of them! Perhaps the sullen drab women I see on them as my Uber speeds by contain a version of you berating some poor old codger who you thought was me? My comments hold good even for the superheated young zealots in the damp and slimy part of this Forum. What you and they are doing is not politics but a mixture of navel-gazing, wish-fulfilment and gormless divination. Get over it. Then maybe you should find a forum about the cinema to post your boreathon dross about whatever film you've rewatched and moved from #2896 to #9865. It might be a bit radical, but I think the discussion of local election results is a perfectly reasonable topic for an elections forum. You don't even believe in democracy anyway. It's not that you don't think it is working but it's quite clear that you don't think it does work at all. Correct Correct Correct Considering moving to Philosophy, Film and Art forums. Have taken all the film research in-house but do no harm and have a few interested followers. You take a lot of interest in what I do despite railing against it. I take no interest in any of your posts unless I am quoted. My problem is time, as I take my posts seriously and have built up a substantial body of real achievement which is a damn site more than half the Forum have done. I don't like democracy because it doesn't work and produces terrible results. It encourages all the worst elements in human nature so of course you love it to bits. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 26, 2024 5:16:30 GMT
Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! Hello, wake up. I think you're on the wrong bus again. This is an elections forum. Can we take this elsewhere please? I'm sorry you two don't get on. I don't like him either, but still, this thread is getting derailed. |
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
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Post by Raddy on Oct 26, 2024 8:43:49 GMT
Without ploughing through all the archives, had anybody done any research on who actually votes in local elections.
On average 33% don't vote in any election, another 33% or more sometimes don't vote in local elections.
Are those who do vote mainly the politically engaged, are they a particular socio-economic groups. Discounting specific political campaigns on a local issue , do they vote on national or local issues, or do they just vote because they believe they should.
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Oct 26, 2024 8:53:18 GMT
Another respectable week for the Tories, but the Old Dean result is a cause for concern. Working close by (in Aldershot), Old Dean has a reputation for being white van man territory, heavily in favour of Brexit etc. Not somewhere you would associate the Lib Dems, that's for sure ... though their July win in Surrey Heath will have helped them to a certain degree. Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! I'm going to a Brazilian rodozio in Putney before the Bricklayer's Arms Cricket Club AGM tonight & it's quite likely I will be having chicken hearts amongst the other meats served to the table  But, I'll eat them, not pore over them. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 26, 2024 10:00:08 GMT
Don't read too much into all this. These are just inconsequential local government by-elections that two-thirds of the electorate do not even notice or take part in at best. And there are local factors and local characters affecting results. Some of you are poring over these as if they are birds entrails! I'm going to a Brazilian rodozio in Putney before the Bricklayer's Arms Cricket Club AGM tonight & it's quite likely I will be having chicken hearts amongst the other meats served to the table But, I'll eat them, not pore over them. I am indebted to you for the introduction earlier to the term and the concept 'rodizio'. I like the idea of the constant supply, the variety of meats and the hearts. I used to like preparing stuffed hearts. They are robust by nature and thus easy to get wrong and make tough. Birds hearts are very small and one needs a lot of them as with livers for pate and larks tongues! It is more of an offer for a younger person. |
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 26, 2024 10:03:05 GMT
Without ploughing through all the archives, had anybody done any research on who actually votes in local elections. On average 33% don't vote in any election, another 33% or more sometimes don't vote in local elections. Are those who do vote mainly the politically engaged, are they a particular socio-economic groups. Discounting specific political campaigns on a local issue , do they vote on national or local issues, or do they just vote because they believe they should. Quite a few years ago, when Worthing council was considering moving to all out elections, I did do some research on this, because we had really extensive historical voting records. The received wisdom is that, as you say, the electorate cabe divided into thirds: 1/3 never vote, 1/3 vote in national elections only, 1/3 vote at every opportunity. But looking at the Worthing data, I found that 1/3 vote at every opportunity, and nearly all the rest voted at least once in any four year cycle. |
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But, I'll eat them, not pore over them.