Local Council by-elections 24th October 2024
Oct 22, 2024 20:45:17 GMT
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jamie, minionofmidas, and 2 more like this
Post by bjornhattan on Oct 22, 2024 20:45:17 GMT
Old Dean could be interesting - as the previous results imply, this is quite an outlier in Surrey Heath. In essence it is the main working class area in Camberley and one end of the main bus route through the Blackwater Valley (the proportion of households without access to a car and indeed bus commuting are both relatively high by the standards of the area). Since 2003, it has gradually drifted towards the Tories, but in most elections it has been very tightly fought. One notable exception was a by election in 2014 - UKIP did well here and took 26% of the vote, largely splitting the right and giving Labour a fairly comfortable majority.
My model is notoriously bad at estimating General Election results for these sorts of wards - firstly it doesn't take into account tactical voting and secondly, as constituencies with this rather downmarket urban profile are rarely very Lib Dem now, the model assumes these sorts of wards are weak for the party. Therefore I'm not convinced the Tories won here (I have it as their only ward in Surrey Heath, albeit only just). However where I do believe my model is how it forecast the other parties here - it likely was the seat's best ward for both Labour and Reform.
All of this adds up to a really intriguing contest. The Tories will probably hold the ward but you could make a case for any of the four parties to gain here - Labour have always had a fair amount of strength here, it will have either voted Lib Dem or been close in the General Election, and the populist right has done well in strong years (both in the 2014 by election and in the larger county division in 2013). Whatever happens I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant swings...
My model is notoriously bad at estimating General Election results for these sorts of wards - firstly it doesn't take into account tactical voting and secondly, as constituencies with this rather downmarket urban profile are rarely very Lib Dem now, the model assumes these sorts of wards are weak for the party. Therefore I'm not convinced the Tories won here (I have it as their only ward in Surrey Heath, albeit only just). However where I do believe my model is how it forecast the other parties here - it likely was the seat's best ward for both Labour and Reform.
All of this adds up to a really intriguing contest. The Tories will probably hold the ward but you could make a case for any of the four parties to gain here - Labour have always had a fair amount of strength here, it will have either voted Lib Dem or been close in the General Election, and the populist right has done well in strong years (both in the 2014 by election and in the larger county division in 2013). Whatever happens I wouldn't be surprised to see some significant swings...
