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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 25, 2024 8:28:14 GMT
Surrey Heath, Old Dean is a LD gain from Con Lib Dems doing a lot better in this by-election than in the recent by-election in Esher & Walton. An interesting divergence, for sure. Of course we had a Waverley by-election too, which was a very respectable Tory win. It's interesting, seeing this divergence between Surrey Heath and the northwestern parts of the county. It'll be very interesting to see what happens in any subsequent local by-elections and the county council elections next year. I wonder how many wards the Lib Dems will contest. Part of the 2021 Tory majority appears to come from the Lib Dems under-nominating across Surrey. Of course, the Lib Dem defeat in Elmbridge two weeks ago was not in Esher & Walton, but Runnymede and Weybridge, which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Surrey. Reform did not stand in Elmbridge, but they did in Surrey Heath. Technically, the aggregate of the Tory-Reform vote would not have defeated the Lib Dems in Surrey Heath, but it would have been close. Reform saved Labour in Crawley (not in Surrey of course). If Reform stand in lots of seats in Surrey, the Lib Dems will be the big winners, but Reform will probably not win any seats at all. |
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Post by olympian95 on Oct 25, 2024 9:15:37 GMT
Hersham is definitely in Esher & Walton
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Post by kitesurfer on Oct 25, 2024 9:24:55 GMT
Hersham is definitely in Esher & Walton Sorry, I confused Hersham with Weybridge. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2024 9:28:19 GMT
The combined Tory/Reform score in Crawley wasn't massively higher than Labour's in fact. You might also note that Workers Party/TUSC took almost 10% between them.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 25, 2024 10:37:45 GMT
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole. Muscliff and Strouden Park
Richard Blackwell-Whitehead – LD 174
Julie-Anne Houldey – IND 406
Eyyup Kilinc – LAB 434
Roger Mann – GRN 84
Conor O’Luby – IND 100
Anthony Rogers – IND 118
Toby Slade – CON 1008 (elected)
Con gain from Ind
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 25, 2024 10:41:19 GMT
Final tally for the week
Con 6 (+3)
Lab 3 (-3)
LD 3 (+1)
Ind 1 (=)
PC 0 (-1)
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jamesdoyle
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Post by jamesdoyle on Oct 25, 2024 10:43:00 GMT
GWBWI
LDm +147
Con +103
Grn +13
PCy -5
Lab -58
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Post by evergreenadam on Oct 25, 2024 10:43:38 GMT
So the Lab slide continues and the Tories are benefiting but not always because of an increase in their own vote share.
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Post by sanders on Oct 25, 2024 10:48:49 GMT
Lib Dems doing a lot better in this by-election than in the recent by-election in Esher & Walton. An interesting divergence, for sure. Of course we had a Waverley by-election too, which was a very respectable Tory win. It's interesting, seeing this divergence between Surrey Heath and the northwestern parts of the county. It'll be very interesting to see what happens in any subsequent local by-elections and the county council elections next year. I wonder how many wards the Lib Dems will contest. Part of the 2021 Tory majority appears to come from the Lib Dems under-nominating across Surrey. Of course, the Lib Dem defeat in Elmbridge two weeks ago was not in Esher & Walton, but Runnymede and Weybridge, which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Surrey. Reform did not stand in Elmbridge, but they did in Surrey Heath. Technically, the aggregate of the Tory-Reform vote would not have defeated the Lib Dems in Surrey Heath, but it would have been close. Reform saved Labour in Crawley (not in Surrey of course). If Reform stand in lots of seats in Surrey, the Lib Dems will be the big winners, but Reform will probably not win any seats at all. It will need a lot of organisations and / or defections. The Tories have the advantage of being able to field more candidates, including many incumbents. Even the Lib Dems can struggle to find people (or elect not to stand in certain words), and if I were Reform I'd target the Spelthorne wards, some of which are white van man territory. Saying that, from my source in the county, I think they could do well in parts of Chertsey, which Labour used to hold before the 2005 election, IIRC. |
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 25, 2024 10:50:42 GMT
An update on the statistics for the by elections held in this local electoral year, following the May 2024 local elections.
Following the 13 contests held on the 24th October, there have now been 183 ordinary by elections for 185 seats since 2nd May 2024.
The Conservatives have defended 40- held 28 and lost 12- 6 to Labour, 3 to the Lib Dems, 1 to RefUK and 2 to Independents (retention rate 70%) and have gained 25
Labour have defended 99- held 72 and lost 27- 15 to the Conservatives, 6 to the Greens, 3 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the SNP and 1 to RefUK ( retention rate 73%) and have gained 10
The Lib Dems have defended 26 - held 18 and lost 8 - 4 to the Conservatives, 2 to Labour and 1 each to the SNP and an Independent ( retention rate 69%) and have gained 6
The Greens have defended 4- held 3 and lost 1 to the Conservatives, ( retention rate 75% ) and have gained 6
RefUK have gained 2 seats
SNP have defended 1, held 1 ( retention rate 100%) and have gained 3 seats
PC have defended 2, held 1 and lost 1 ( retention rate 50%) and have gained 1 seat
There have been 13 by elections for a seat previously won by an Independent, 5 were won by another Independent, 5 were gained by the Conservatives 2 by Labour, and 1 by Plaid and an Independent has gained 4 seats
Overall totals and net changes since May
Con 53 (+13)
Lab 82 (-17)
LD 24 (-2)
Green 9 (+5)
Ind 9 (-4)
RefUK 2 (+2)
SNP 4 (+3)
PC 2 (=)
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swanarcadian
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 25, 2024 11:09:18 GMT
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole. Muscliff and Strouden Park Richard Blackwell-Whitehead – LD 174 Julie-Anne Houldey – IND 406 Eyyup Kilinc – LAB 434 Roger Mann – GRN 84 Conor O’Luby – IND 100 Anthony Rogers – IND 118 Toby Slade – CON 1008 (elected) Con gain from Ind Muscliff & Strouden Park (Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 43.4% (+17.1) 🌹 LAB: 18.7% (-2.6) 🙋 IND: 17.5% (New) 🔶 LDM: 7.5% (+1.8) 🙋 IND: 5.1% (New) 🙋 IND: 4.3% (New) 🌍 GRN: 3.6% (New) No IND (-46.8) as previous. Conservative GAIN from Independent. Changes w/ 2023. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2024 11:11:21 GMT
Of course, the Lib Dem defeat in Elmbridge two weeks ago was not in Esher & Walton, but Runnymede and Weybridge, which interestingly is now the safest Tory seat in Surrey. Reform did not stand in Elmbridge, but they did in Surrey Heath. Technically, the aggregate of the Tory-Reform vote would not have defeated the Lib Dems in Surrey Heath, but it would have been close. Reform saved Labour in Crawley (not in Surrey of course). If Reform stand in lots of seats in Surrey, the Lib Dems will be the big winners, but Reform will probably not win any seats at all. It will need a lot of organisations and / or defections. The Tories have the advantage of being able to field more candidates, including many incumbents. Even the Lib Dems can struggle to find people (or elect not to stand in certain words), and if I were Reform I'd target the Spelthorne wards, some of which are white van man territory. Saying that, from my source in the county, I think they could do well in parts of Chertsey, which Labour used to hold before the 2005 election, IIRC. County councils/unitaries have fewer seats to fill, so I wouldn't be surprised to see quite widespread - even if not universal - Reform coverage. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 25, 2024 11:33:24 GMT
It will need a lot of organisations and / or defections. The Tories have the advantage of being able to field more candidates, including many incumbents. Even the Lib Dems can struggle to find people (or elect not to stand in certain words), and if I were Reform I'd target the Spelthorne wards, some of which are white van man territory. Saying that, from my source in the county, I think they could do well in parts of Chertsey, which Labour used to hold before the 2005 election, IIRC. County councils/unitaries have fewer seats to fill, so I wouldn't be surprised to see quite widespread - even if not universal - Reform coverage. I think a lot will depend on the approach taken - if it's left to local parties coverage may be patchy as we see in the by-elections, if there's more of a national push for candidates as there was for the general then I would expect a much better coverage. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2024 11:38:33 GMT
County councils/unitaries have fewer seats to fill, so I wouldn't be surprised to see quite widespread - even if not universal - Reform coverage. I think a lot will depend on the approach taken - if it's left to local parties coverage may be patchy as we see in the by-elections, if there's more of a national push for candidates as there was for the general then I would expect a much better coverage. It has been reported that Reform is prioritising next May over local byelections, so that would point to the latter. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 25, 2024 12:00:31 GMT
County councils/unitaries have fewer seats to fill, so I wouldn't be surprised to see quite widespread - even if not universal - Reform coverage. I think a lot will depend on the approach taken - if it's left to local parties coverage may be patchy as we see in the by-elections, if there's more of a national push for candidates as there was for the general then I would expect a much better coverage. Candidates is one thing. Nomination forms, in lots of rural county divisions, is perhaps an even bigger challenge. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 25, 2024 12:27:48 GMT
Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole. Muscliff and Strouden Park Richard Blackwell-Whitehead – LD 174 Julie-Anne Houldey – IND 406 Eyyup Kilinc – LAB 434 Roger Mann – GRN 84 Conor O’Luby – IND 100 Anthony Rogers – IND 118 Toby Slade – CON 1008 (elected) Con gain from Ind Muscliff & Strouden Park (Bournemouth, Christchurch & Poole) Council By-Election Result: 🌳 CON: 43.4% (+17.1) 🌹 LAB: 18.7% (-2.6) 🙋 IND: 17.5% (New) 🔶 LDM: 7.5% (+1.8) 🙋 IND: 5.1% (New) 🙋 IND: 4.3% (New) 🌍 GRN: 3.6% (New) No IND (-46.8) as previous. Conservative GAIN from Independent. Changes w/ 2023. These changes are obviously using the "top vote" method (the first placed Indy last year polled notably better than the others) Using "average" vote instead would show a rather more modest Tory swing, though this is still clearly a good result for them. |
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Post by jakegb on Oct 25, 2024 12:44:47 GMT
Another respectable week for the Tories, but the Old Dean result is a cause for concern.
Working close by (in Aldershot), Old Dean has a reputation for being white van man territory, heavily in favour of Brexit etc. Not somewhere you would associate the Lib Dems, that's for sure ... though their July win in Surrey Heath will have helped them to a certain degree.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Oct 25, 2024 12:46:34 GMT
I think a lot will depend on the approach taken - if it's left to local parties coverage may be patchy as we see in the by-elections, if there's more of a national push for candidates as there was for the general then I would expect a much better coverage. Candidates is one thing. Nomination forms, in lots of rural county divisions, is perhaps an even bigger challenge. not with only two sigs needed (candate and one other if all else fails) |
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Post by stodge on Oct 25, 2024 13:32:00 GMT
Surrey Heath, Old Dean is a LD gain from Con Lib Dems doing a lot better in this by-election than in the recent by-election in Esher & Walton. An interesting divergence, for sure. Of course we had a Waverley by-election too, which was a very respectable Tory win. It's interesting, seeing this divergence between Surrey Heath and the northwestern parts of the county. It'll be very interesting to see what happens in any subsequent local by-elections and the county council elections next year. I wonder how many wards the Lib Dems will contest. Part of the 2021 Tory majority appears to come from the Lib Dems under-nominating across Surrey. Surrey politics is, as elsewhere, complex and complicated. In 2021, the County elections saw the Conservatives win 42%, the Liberal Democrats 25% and the various Independents 19%. The Independent vote fragments at General Elections and isn't consistent across the County. The rise of the Residents (they have always run Epsom Council) was partly a reaction to the Conservative dominance of the 2010s, partly Brexit-related but a lot to do with local planning issues. The Independents and Residents are in Tandridge, Epsom, Waverley and Guildford. In local elections there have been tacit arrangements between the non-Conservative parties. As we know, such "deals" come in many flavours from actively refusing to stand against each other to only putting up "paper" candidates. As to whether such "deals" will be entertained at next year's County elections, I don't know. The Conservatives currently enjoy a majority of just seven - 44 to 37 held by all other parties. 16 Independents & Residents sit as a single group with one ex-Conservative Independent sitting on his own. The other opposition groups are 16 Liberal Democrats, 2 Green and 2 Labour. There'll be a lot more to talk about when the Mods create the 2025 County Council threads. |
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Post by owainsutton on Oct 25, 2024 13:51:37 GMT
Candidates is one thing. Nomination forms, in lots of rural county divisions, is perhaps an even bigger challenge. not with only two sigs needed (candate and one other if all else fails) Two signatures didn't make a huge difference to any parties in 2021 compared to previous county elections? It's not just the signatures, it's the logistics of getting volunteers to travel to the various localities. (The likelihood of them having a willing candidate in each division, very small!) |
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