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Post by corradino on Sept 25, 2024 22:29:52 GMT
Denbighshire, Rhyl Trellewelyn: Lab 43, PC 23, Con 24, LD 10.
E Staffordshire, Stretton: Con 45, Lab 33, Green 22.
Herefordshire, Credenhill: Con 24, Taylor (Ind) 23, Jones (Ind) 19, Reform 15, Lab 11, LD 8.
Highland, Cromarty Firth: SNP 26, LD 25, Reform (total) 9, Godley-Mackenzie (Ind) 8, Rattray (Ind) 7, Con 7, Lab 5, Coghill (Ind) 4, Cross (Ind) 4, Green 3 McCaffery (Ind) 2. SNP and LD win.
Highland, Inverness Central: SNP 36, Lab 28, Con 12, Reform 10, LD 8, Green 6. SNP win.
Luton, Barnfield: LD 45, Lab 34, Con 10. Green 7, Ind 4.
Luton, Wigmore: LD 58, Lab 12, Green 11, Ind 10, Con 9.
Perth & Kinross, Perth City North: SNP 47, Lab 18, Con 17, Reform 9, LD 4, Green 3, Alba 2. SNP win
Perth & Kinross, Strathallan: Con 39, SNP 31, LD 10, Reform 9, Lab 6, Green 5. Con win.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 25, 2024 22:41:40 GMT
Denbighshire: Lab 48; Con 30; PC 12; LD 10
East Staffs: Con 53; Lab 32; Grn 15
Herefordshire: Con 35; Taylor 14; RefUK 14; LD 18; Lab 6; Jones 13
Cromarty Firth: LD 26; SNP 24; Godley-Mackenzie 10; Rattray 7; Con 7; McCaffery 5; Lab 5; Grn 6; RefUK 3; Cross 3; Coghill 4 (LD and SNP win)
Inverness Central: SNP 31; Lab 32; Con 12; LD 14; Grn 8; RefUK 3 (Lab win on transfers)
Barnfield: LD 49; Lab 27; Con 13; Scheimann 4; Grn 7
Wigmore: LD 56; Con 13; Lab 17; Cottier 9; Grn 5
Perth City North: SNP 42; Lab 26; Con 18; LD 4; Grn 4; RefUK 4; Alba 2 (SNP win)
Strathallan: Con 41; SNP 28; LD 14; Grn 9; RefUK 3; Lab 5 (Con win)
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 25, 2024 23:59:27 GMT
Denbighshire
Lab 39, Con 35, PC 16, LD10
East Staffs
Con 52, Lab 36, Green 12
Herefordshire, Con 30, Ind Jones 20, LD 17, Ind Taylor 12, Reform 12, Labour 9
Highlands Cromarty
LD 20, SNP 20, Ind Rattray 10, Ind McCaffery 8, Ind Coghill 8, Reform (total) 8, Ind Godley 8, Green 7, Ind Cross 6, Lab 5 (LD and SNP win)
Highland Inverness
Lab 26, SNP 22, LD 18, Green 14, Con 13, Reform 7 (Lab win)
Luton Barnfield
LD 46, Lab 22, Con 16, Green 12, Ind 4
Luton Wigmore
LD 52, Con 18, Lab 16, Green 7, Ind 7
Perth & Kinross - Perth City
SNP 38, Con 21, Lab 17, LD 8, Ref 7, Green 7, Alba 2 (SNP win)
Perth & Kinross - Strathallen
Con 43, SNP 25, LD 14, Green 6, Ref 6, Lab 6 (Con win )
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 26, 2024 4:10:08 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE WUA, Rhyl Trellewelyn : Lab 45, Con 37, PC 14, LDm 4
EAST STAFFORDSHIRE DC, Stretton : Con 56, Lab 34, Grn 10
HEREFORDSHIRE UA, Credenhill : Con 31, Ind Jones 23, Lab 18, LDm 15, RefUK 10, Ind Taylor 3
HIGHLAND SUA, Cromarty Firth: LDm 26, SNP 24, Ind Godley-Mackenzie 11, Ind Rattray 9, Con 8, Grn 5, Ind Coghill 4, Ind McCaffery 4, Lab 4, RefUK 3, Ind Cross 2, SNP win and LDm win both on transfers.
HIGHLAND SUA, Inverness Central : SNP 32, Lab 23, Con 18, LDm 15, Grn 8, RefUK 4. SNP win on transfers
LUTON UA, Barnfield : LDm 45, Lab 26, Con 17, Grn 9, Ind 3
LUTON UA, Wigmore : LDm 54, Con 18, Lab 16, Ind 8, Grn 4,
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Perth City North : SNP 42, Lab 20, Con 19, LDm 7, Grn 6 RefUK 4 Alba 2. SNP win on transfers
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Strathallan : Con 42, SNP 25, LDm 14, Lab 8, RefUK 7, Grn 4 Con win on transfers
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Post by sanders on Sept 26, 2024 20:55:58 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE WUA, Rhyl Trellewelyn : CON 45 LAB 42 PC 9 LD 4
EAST STAFFORDSHIRE DC, Stretton : CON 59 LAB 33 GRN 9
HEREFORDSHIRE UA, Credenhill : CON 33 IND JONES 30 REFUK 18 LAB 12 IND TAYLOR 7
HIGHLAND SUA, Cromarty Firth: LD 30 SNP 30 IND GODLEY-MACKENZIE 10 IND RATTRAY 6 CON 5 GRN 4 IND COGHILL 4 IND MCCAFFERY 3 LAB 3 RFM 3 IND CROSS 2 (SNP and LD win on transfers)
HIGHLAND SUA, Inverness Central : SNP 37 LAB 37 CON 16 GRN 6 RFM 4 (LAB win on transfers)
LUTON UA, Barnfield : LD 39 CON 26 LAB 24 GRN 8 IND 3
LUTON UA, Wigmore : LD 48 CON 33 LAB 12 IND 4 GRN 3
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Perth City North: SNP 40 LAB 22 CON 21 LD 12 GRN 3 RFM 1 ALBA 1
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Strathallan : LD 38 CON 30 SNP 16 LAB 14 RFM 1 GRN 1 (LD win on transfers)
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 7:17:43 GMT
I trust that the last entry will be disregarded, as it alone was able to benefit from Andrew’s Previews but even more pertinently the revelation that the LDs were seriously working Strathallan that nobody else had any idea about before late on polling day
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 27, 2024 9:27:30 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE WUA, Rhyl Trellewelyn : CON 45 LAB 42 PC 9 LD 4 EAST STAFFORDSHIRE DC, Stretton : CON 59 LAB 33 GRN 9 HEREFORDSHIRE UA, Credenhill : CON 33 IND JONES 30 REFUK 18 LAB 12 IND TAYLOR 7 HIGHLAND SUA, Cromarty Firth: LD 30 SNP 30 IND GODLEY-MACKENZIE 10 IND RATTRAY 6 CON 5 GRN 4 IND COGHILL 4 IND MCCAFFERY 3 LAB 3 RFM 3 IND CROSS 2 (SNP and LD win on transfers) HIGHLAND SUA, Inverness Central : SNP 37 LAB 37 CON 16 GRN 6 RFM 4 (LAB win on transfers) LUTON UA, Barnfield : LD 39 CON 26 LAB 24 GRN 8 IND 3 LUTON UA, Wigmore : LD 48 CON 33 LAB 12 IND 4 GRN 3 PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Perth City North: SNP 40 LAB 22 CON 21 LD 12 GRN 3 RFM 1 ALBA 1 PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Strathallan : LD 38 CON 30 SNP 16 LAB 14 RFM 1 GRN 1 (LD win on transfers) You do know that you are meant to post these by Thursday morning, right? |
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Post by sanders on Sept 27, 2024 10:20:24 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE WUA, Rhyl Trellewelyn : CON 45 LAB 42 PC 9 LD 4 EAST STAFFORDSHIRE DC, Stretton : CON 59 LAB 33 GRN 9 HEREFORDSHIRE UA, Credenhill : CON 33 IND JONES 30 REFUK 18 LAB 12 IND TAYLOR 7 HIGHLAND SUA, Cromarty Firth: LD 30 SNP 30 IND GODLEY-MACKENZIE 10 IND RATTRAY 6 CON 5 GRN 4 IND COGHILL 4 IND MCCAFFERY 3 LAB 3 RFM 3 IND CROSS 2 (SNP and LD win on transfers) HIGHLAND SUA, Inverness Central : SNP 37 LAB 37 CON 16 GRN 6 RFM 4 (LAB win on transfers) LUTON UA, Barnfield : LD 39 CON 26 LAB 24 GRN 8 IND 3 LUTON UA, Wigmore : LD 48 CON 33 LAB 12 IND 4 GRN 3 PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Perth City North: SNP 40 LAB 22 CON 21 LD 12 GRN 3 RFM 1 ALBA 1 PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Strathallan : LD 38 CON 30 SNP 16 LAB 14 RFM 1 GRN 1 (LD win on transfers) You do know that you are meant to post these by Thursday morning, right? Stop the steal. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 27, 2024 10:27:11 GMT
9 entries to close the month. Sanders is timed out for posting nearly 13 hours over the deadline (but as is custom I've included his predictions in the weekly total) and kevinf receives 2 faults for going under in Herefordshire. Rhyl Trellewelyn, Denbighshire: 9 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (manchesterman) to 22% (batman). Sanders Conservative gain with majority of 3%. Stretton, East Staffordshire: 100% Conservative hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (kevinf) to 26% (sanders). Credenhill, Herefordshire: 9 Conservative gain from Independent, with majorities ranging from 1% (corradino) to 17% (Robert Waller). Batman Independent (Jones) win with 5% majority. Cromarty Firth, Highland: 7 with Liberal Democrats ahead on first preferences, with batman, corradino and iainbhx SNP ahead. 8 with Liberal Democrat hold and SNP gain from Highland Independent after transfers, with batman and kevinf Liberal Democrat hold and Independent (Rattray) win. Inverness Central, Highland: 5 with Labour ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, corradino, iainbhx and Right Leaning SNP ahead on firsts and gain after transfers, and sanders and Tony Otim with SNP ahead on firsts and Labour hold after transfers. Barnfield, Luton: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 11% (corradino) to 36% (kevinf). Wigmore, Luton: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (sanders) to 50% (kevinf). Perth City North, Perth and Kinross: 100% SNP ahead on first preferences and gain from Labour after transfers, with first preference majorities ranging from 16% (batman and Robert Waller) to 29% (corradino). Strathallan, Perth and Kinross: 9 Conservative ahead on first preferences and hold after transfers, with first preference majorities ranging from 4% (batman) to 18% (manchesterman). Sanders Liberal Democrats ahead on firsts and gain after transfers with first pref majority of 8%. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WiFjZJRHoN7CTdBhTGFR60dfc5Do5vtvAoZEH9f00Rg/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all with a few still to go! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 27, 2024 13:13:50 GMT
A very convincing monthly win for iainbhx with such a large sample size. Also congrats to andrewp for this difficult week and a clear second for the month. I shall try to update the form table later today. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 27, 2024 14:01:51 GMT
And now for October where the worst week is when I‘m supposed to be on holiday.
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Post by batman on Sept 27, 2024 14:30:53 GMT
Put in your predictions early Iain, that's what I did when I went on holiday earlier this month, unless you want to interrupt your holiday (surely not?)
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Post by No Offence Alan on Sept 27, 2024 17:11:15 GMT
I trust that the last entry will be disregarded, as it alone was able to benefit from Andrew’s Previews but even more pertinently the revelation that the LDs were seriously working Strathallan that nobody else had any idea about before late on polling day I checked that the cut-off time for valid entries had passed before I posted. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 27, 2024 18:13:58 GMT
Put in your predictions early Iain, that's what I did when I went on holiday earlier this month, unless you want to interrupt your holiday (surely not?) There's not a great deal to do in the evening in Aberaeron. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 28, 2024 3:42:05 GMT
I think we should change it. Predictions up to close of poll. That might encourage more competition entries.
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Post by batman on Sept 28, 2024 10:03:26 GMT
No I disagree. The present system is better. As things stand we have to work things out largely for ourselves & are not much influenced by rumours that such-and-such a party is working particularly hard, or so on. Forecasting is just that, it's an attempt to say what the result be BEFORE polling day although of course there are postal votes going in before that. If we have particular knowledge of an area, and others don't, well that can happen and is just one of those things.
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