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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 23, 2024 12:54:34 GMT
MID-SUFFOLK, Thurston : Green 55 C 39 Lab 6
WAVERLEY DC, Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse : LD 37 C 34 Green 14 Lab 15
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Post by kevinf on Sept 23, 2024 16:32:50 GMT
Mid Suffolk
Green 58, Con 35, Lab 7
Waverley
Con 33, LD 30, Green 20, Lab 17
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 23, 2024 18:25:15 GMT
Mid Suffolk DC, Thurston: Grn 53 Con 38 Lab 9
Waverley DC: Con 38 LDm 32 Grn 18 Lab 12
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 23, 2024 18:44:35 GMT
Mid Suffolk Green 53 Con 39 Lab 8
Waverley LD 39 Con 37 Green 13 Lab 11
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Post by corradino on Sept 23, 2024 20:45:21 GMT
Mid Suffolk, Thurston: Green 60, Con 34, Lab 6.
Waverley, Godalming etc: Con 39, LD 32, Green 17, Lab 12.
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 23, 2024 21:47:16 GMT
Mid Suffolk
Green 52, Con 41, Lab 7
Waverley
Con 39, LD 36, Green 15, Lab 10
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 24, 2024 5:04:35 GMT
Mid Suffolk, Thurston: Gn 55, Con 38, Lab 7
Waverley, Godalming etc: Con 36, LD 32, Gn 19, Lab 13
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 24, 2024 7:30:39 GMT
Mid Suffolk, Thurston: Gn 55, Con 38, Lab 7 Waverley, Godalming etc: Con 36, LD 32, Gn 19, Lab 13 I am wondering if the July landslide will have altered the entire dynamic in such settled middle class areas? There are no Reform candidates to split the right vote and I think it possible that such seats might shew a more overt desire to rebalance the 'damage' now that we are already adjusting to a new era and regarding Labour as in unpopular government rather than a fresh-faced opposition to incompetence and disgrace? |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 24, 2024 23:06:58 GMT
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 24, 2024 23:18:59 GMT
10 entries for the Tuesday, with corradino and manchesterman returning, all on time and correct. Thurston, Mid Suffolk: 9 Green hold, majorities ranging from 6% (batman) to 26% (corradino). Sanders Conservative gain from Green with 4% majority. Godalming Binscombe and Charterhouse, Waverley: 6 Conservative gain from Labour, with andrewp, batman, Robert Waller and Tony Otim Liberal Democrat gain. Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vER5X9zxJWVIJ9XxG3vdG7F1rIdYYWlgpg3RoCNidjw/edit?usp=sharing - well done to sanders on a comprehensive win over the two contests. |
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 24, 2024 23:20:23 GMT
Mid Suffolk, Thurston: Gn 55, Con 38, Lab 7 Waverley, Godalming etc: Con 36, LD 32, Gn 19, Lab 13 I am wondering if the July landslide will have altered the entire dynamic in such settled middle class areas? There are no Reform candidates to split the right vote and I think it possible that such seats might shew a more overt desire to rebalance the 'damage' now that we are already adjusting to a new era and regarding Labour as in unpopular government rather than a fresh-faced opposition to incompetence and disgrace? Thought that would happen. Reality check with all dials back to factory settings again. 2-months is a very long time in politics. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 24, 2024 23:23:22 GMT
robbienicoll - I think we'll need guidance for Cromarty Firth at the end of the month as there are 2 Reform candidates for the double vacancy and I don't think we've ever 2 candidates from the same party for an STV by-election before. I would suggest predicting the total vote share for both candidates added together makes most sense, but would be good to get the official ruling... Bump... This is coming up next week now, so would be good to get a ruling... I'd popped it down earlier but hadn't highlighted, apologies. Top vote for dual candidacies in Scottish elections, even in this highly unusual situation! Also please note the additional by-election in Thursday's contests - I'll be updating the spiel tomorrow to reflect this. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 25, 2024 6:55:52 GMT
Bump... This is coming up next week now, so would be good to get a ruling... I'd popped it down earlier but hadn't highlighted, apologies. Top vote for dual candidacies in Scottish elections, even in this highly unusual situation! Also please note the additional by-election in Thursday's contests - I'll be updating the spiel tomorrow to reflect this. Hi robbie - thanks for this, but can I respectfully disagree. Top Vote makes no sense as a way of measuring an STV election were each voter only gets one vote. It will do 2 things - artificially inflate the vote share of all the other candidates (instead of being a percentage of all valid votes, it will be a percentage of all valid votes minus whatever the second Reform gets) and it will mean that at one stage of transfers there's a percentage of votes introduced not included in the original 100%. This really doesn't make any sense. I would suggest it should either be combined vote or for each individual candidate. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 25, 2024 10:10:23 GMT
I agree with Tony Otim, and would suggest having a single Reform share guess covering both candidates, and this be a principle covering future STV byelections, including if we should ever get a dual vacancy. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 25, 2024 10:19:07 GMT
I'd thought there was precedent for this (Huntly at the back end of 2015) but it turns out this is a first time occurrence as that had two seats contested but no dual candidacies. The logic makes sense so I'm happy amending it to total vote for the Reform candidates. Going forward that will be the precedent for STV by-elections (if we ever see it again!)
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Sept 25, 2024 16:50:38 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE, Rhyl Trellewelyn : Lab 50 C 28 PC 15 LD 7
E.STAFFORDSHIRE, Stretton : C 54 Lab 34 Green 12
HEREFORDSHIRE, Credenhill : Ind Jones 27 C 22 LD 18 Ind Taylor 16 RefUK 12 Lab 5
HIGHLAND, Cromarty Firth (top vote for party candidates, independents shown separately) : SNP 21 LD 20 Ind Rattray 15 C 10 Ind McCaffery 7 Green 6 Lab 6 RefUK 5 Ind Cross 4 Ind Godley-Mackenzie 3 Ind Coghill 3. After transfers LD & Ind Rattray elected
HIGHLAND, Inverness C. : Lab 26 SNP 24 LD 20 C 15 Green 9 RefUK 6. Lab win on transfers
LUTON, Barnfield : LD 44 Lab 24 C 15 Green 13 Ind 4
LUTON, Wigmore : LD 61 Lab 17 C 11 Green 8 Ind 3
PERTH & KINROSS, Perth City N : SNP 38 C 22 Lab 20 LD 7 Green 6 RefUK 5 Alba 2. SNP win on transfers
PERTH & KINROSS, Strathallan : C 33 SNP 29 LD 17 Green 10 Lab 7 RefUK 4. SNP win on transfers
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 25, 2024 19:48:01 GMT
Denbighshire: Lab 38.9; Con 28.7; PC 21.6; LD 10.8
East Staffs: Con 52.2; Lab 34.4; Grn 13.4
Herefordshire: Con 35.9; Taylor 20.1; RefUK 17.4; LD 12.3; Lab 9.4; Jones 4.9
Cromarty Firth: LD 26.6; SNP 22.8; Godley-Mackenzie 11.9; Rattray 7.9; Con 6.0; McCaffery 5.2; Lab 5.1; Grn 4.2; RefUK 4.0; Cross 3.3; Coghill 3.0 (LD and SNP win)
Inverness Central: SNP 35.5; Lab 29.5; Con 12.8; LD 9.6; Grn 8.8; RefUK 3.8 (Lab win on transfers)
Barnfield: LD 49.9; Lab 28.8; Con 12.1; Scheimann 6.3; Grn 2.9
Wigmore: LD 60.6; Con 13.0; Lab 12.0; Cottier 11.1; Grn 3.3
Perth City North: SNP 42.6; Lab 21.4; Con 20.2; LD 5.3; Grn 4.9; RefUK 3.5; Alba 2.1 (SNP win)
Strathallan: Con 42.5; SNP 27.7; LD 12.3; Grn 8.5; RefUK 4.9; Lab 4.1 (Con win)
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Post by kevinf on Sept 25, 2024 20:31:14 GMT
Denbighshire
Lab 38, Con 25, LD 22, PC 15
East Staffs
Con 43, Lab 37, Green 20
Herefordshire, Con 26, Ind Jones 20, LD 18, Ind Taylor 15, Reform 13, Labour 6
Highlands Cromarty
LD 20, SNP 17, Ind Rattray 16, Ind McCafferty 9.5, Ind Coghill 8.5, Ind Cross 7.5, Reform (total) 7, Ind Godley 6.5, Lab 5, Green 3 (LD and Rattray win)
Highland Inverness
Lab 25, SNP 23, Green 15, LD 14, Con 12, Reform 11 (Lab win)
Luton Barnfield
LD 56, Lab 20, Con 12, Green 9, Ind 3
Luton Wigmore
LD 62, Con 12, Lab 11, Green 10, Ind 5
Perth & Kinross - Perth City
SNP 38, Con 20, Lab 18, LD 9, Ref 6.5, Green 6, Alba 2.5 (SNP win)
Perth & Kinross - Strathallen
Con 44, SNP 28, LD 9, Green 7.5, Ref 6.5, Lab 5 (Con win )
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Sept 25, 2024 21:45:36 GMT
Denbighshire. Lab 43 Con 33 PC 16 LD 8
East Staffordshire, Con 54 Lab 34 Green 12
Herefordshire. Con 33 Taylor 24 LD 18 RefUK 8 Lab 8 Jones 9
Highland. Cromarty Firth LD 22 SNP 19 Rattray 14 Coghill 12 Godley-McKenzie 9 Cross 6 Con 6 Green 4 Lab 3 McCaffery 3 REfUK 2. LD and SNP win
Highland, Inverness Central. Lab 36 SNP 34 Con 11 LD 8 Green 7 RefUK 4. Lab win
Luton, Barnfield, LD 51 Lab 26 Con 13 Green 8 Ind 2
Luton, Wigmore, LD 55 Lab 15 Con 15 Ind 8 Green 7
Perth and Kinross.Perth City North. SNP 44 Lab 22 Con 20 Ld 5 RefUK 4 Green 4 Alba 1. SNP win
Perth and Kinross. Strathallan. Con 41 SNp 26 Lab 13 LD 8 RefUK 7 Green 5. Con win
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 25, 2024 21:47:26 GMT
DENBIGHSHIRE WUA, Rhyl Trellewelyn : Lab 41 Con 35 PC 19 LDm 5
EAST STAFFORDSHIRE DC, Stretton : Con 54 Lab 38 Grn 8
HEREFORDSHIRE UA, Credenhill : Con 28 Ind Jones 22 Lab 21 LDm 14 RefUK 11 Ind Taylor 4
HIGHLAND SUA, Cromarty Firth: SNP 23 LDm 19 Ind Godley-Mackenzie 12 Ind Rattray 10 Grn 8 Con 7 Ind Coghill 6 Ind McCaffery 5 Lab 4 RefUK 3 Ind Cross 3
SNP win and LDm win both on transfers.
HIGHLAND SUA, Inverness Central : SNP 33 Lab 20 LDm 18 Con 13 Grn 10 RefUK 6. SNP win on transfers
LUTON UA, Barnfield : LDm 48 Lab 24 Con 13 Grn 11 Ind 4
LUTON UA, Wigmore : LDm 58 Lab 14 Con 13 Ind 10 Grn 5
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Perth City North : SNP 43 Lab 21 Con 15.5 LDm 6.5 Grn 6 RefUK 5 Alba 3. SNP win on transfers
PERTH & KINROSS SUA, Strathallan : Con 37 SNP 26 LDm 16 Lab 9 RefUK 7 Grn 5 Con win on transfers
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