Prediction Competition - September 2024

[corradino]

I'm skiving off this week - best of luck to those who have made the effort.

[robbienicoll]

9 entries this week, with corradino having a break. All on time, but with andrewp picking up 1 fault for going over in Arran, Tony Otim 0.1 for going over in London Fields and sanders 13 for a variety of offences.

Romsey, Cambridge: 8 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 18% (iainbhx) to 28.2% (Tony Otim). Sanders Green gain with 6% majority.

Bridges, Gateshead: 7 Labour hold, with kevinf and sanders Green gain.

London Fields, Hackney: 8 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 13% (andrewp) to 37.8% (Tony Otim). Sanders Independent (Byrne) gain with 4% majority.

Stoke Newington, Hackney: 8 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 1% (batman) to 16% (kevinf). Sanders Green gain with 23% majority.

Bletchley East, Milton Keynes: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (sanders) to 37.9% (Tony Otim).

North Jesmond, Newcastle-upon-Tyne: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 5% (iainbhx) to 20% (batman).

Freebridge Lynn, Norfolk: 100% Independent (Ring) gain from Liberal Democrat, with majorities ranging from 6% (batman) to 41.4% (Tony Otim).

Arran, North Ayrshire: 5 with Independent (McMaster) ahead on first preferences and gain from Conservative after transfers, batman and sanders with Conservative ahead on firsts and Labour gain after transfers, iainbhx with Independent ahead on firsts and Labour gain after transfers and kevinf with Conservative ahead on firsts and hold after transfers.

North Walsham Market Cross, North Norfolk: 8 Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (manchesterman and sanders) to 22% (batman). Kevinf Green gain with 1% majority.

Bow East, Tower Hamlets: 8 Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 10% (Robert Waller) to 40% (andrewp). Sanders Green gain with 7% majority.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-r_3LH63Vgrej0ks_oqs2q4GBotvfsN7EMg-eoteack/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[kevinf]

Next Thursday in Stockton we have a double vacancy. Are we predicting individuals, or ‘slates’ if you count the Ind and ND as a slate?

[The Bishop]

Did sanders really predict a Green gain in London Fields?? Just a tip, it does help to be actually standing a candidate first

[johnloony]

Sept 13, 2024 10:55:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Did sanders really predict a Green gain in London Fields?? Just a tip, it does help to be actually standing a candidate first

Ind gain, according to his list. It might have been edited though

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 10:55:41 GMT The Bishop said:

Did sanders really predict a Green gain in London Fields?? Just a tip, it does help to be actually standing a candidate first

No - I predicted Sarah Byrne winning. batman erroneously had the Greens in his prediction, before changing it after I pointed out the mistake. 

Slightly surprised no one else thought the Greens would take Stoke Newington, especially after the Mayoral election result in Hackney (8% swing LAB to GRN).

[The Bishop]

So its robbienicoll who made the mistake, not you. Fair enuff

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 11:25:26 GMT The Bishop said:

So its robbienicoll who made the mistake, not you. Fair enuff

I mean. Greens should have stood. Lots of people on the doorstep were sticking with Labour because "we know what we're getting". If the Greens had stood and replicated the Stoke Newington swing, they would have won it. As it is, Labour's result was probably a repeat of the Mayoral election (a healthy 20% lead, but pretty mediocre for Labour in Hackney and Hackney Labour in London Fields). A win is a win, of course. Labour got the job done and the Greens may want to revisit their alliance with the independents. 

[Tony Otim]

Sept 13, 2024 11:32:36 GMT sanders said:

Sept 13, 2024 11:25:26 GMT The Bishop said:

So its robbienicoll who made the mistake, not you. Fair enuff

I mean. Greens should have stood. Lots of people on the doorstep were sticking with Labour because "we know what we're getting". If the Greens had stood and replicated the Stoke Newington swing, they would have won it. As it is, Labour's result was probably a repeat of the Mayoral election (a healthy 20% lead, but pretty mediocre for Labour in Hackney and Hackney Labour in London Fields). A win is a win, of course. Labour got the job done and the Greens may want to revisit their alliance with the independents. 

I think the real question is whether we would have won either seat had there been both a Green and local pro-Gaza independent in both. I suspect we wouldn't have taken London Fields in those circumstances and Stoke Newington may have been a lot closer.

[sanders]

Sept 13, 2024 11:55:09 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 13, 2024 11:32:36 GMT sanders said:

I mean. Greens should have stood. Lots of people on the doorstep were sticking with Labour because "we know what we're getting". If the Greens had stood and replicated the Stoke Newington swing, they would have won it. As it is, Labour's result was probably a repeat of the Mayoral election (a healthy 20% lead, but pretty mediocre for Labour in Hackney and Hackney Labour in London Fields). A win is a win, of course. Labour got the job done and the Greens may want to revisit their alliance with the independents. 

I think the real question is whether we would have won either seat had there been both a Green and local pro-Gaza independent in both. I suspect we wouldn't have taken London Fields in those circumstances and Stoke Newington may have been a lot closer.

I agree - 2026 will be interesting. I would have the Greens may give the Hackney Independent Socialist group incumbents a free run and may under-nominate in Victoria and Clissold - even though that is actually a better Green ward than Stoke Newington (in 2022 and historically). The Hackney Independents could join the Greens of course. London Fields is very polarised with £5,000,000 houses on Richmond Road - it doesn't have the same wells of Green strength as say, Dalston or the Downs, despite being not too demographically dissimilar to those wards that have given the Greens Councillors.

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to manchesterman for winning this extensive and challenging week, and to iainbhx for the monthly lead.

[Tony Otim]

I note that I'm the only competitor this month to have not had the best prediction in any contest, but still manage to be in second overall...

[robbienicoll]

Sept 13, 2024 11:25:26 GMT The Bishop said:

So its robbienicoll who made the mistake, not you. Fair enuff

Yeah the spreadsheet was right but the spiel not, more haste less speed etc etc.

[Tony Otim]

Reminder to everyone that there's a Monday election this week.

[andrewp]

Sept 13, 2024 10:24:48 GMT kevinf said:

Next Thursday in Stockton we have a double vacancy. Are we predicting individuals, or ‘slates’ if you count the Ind and ND as a slate?

robbienicoll. I think previous arrangements would indicate that we predict slates and treat the Ind and ND not as a slate?

[Robert Waller]

I'll do this now as I'm quite likely to forget ...

GEDLING DC; Bestwood St Albans: Lab 53 C 31 LD 16

[Tony Otim]

Gedling: Lab 53.8; Con 32.6; LD 13.6

[kevinf]

Lab 56, Con 32, LD 12

[andrewp]

Gedling. Lab 52 Con 36 LD 12

[iainbhx]

Gedling DC, Bestwood St Albans: Lab 53 Con 35 LDm 12