Prediction Competition - September 2024

[sanders]

Camden - Camden Square: LAB 48 FARAH 32 GRN 10 LD 5 CON 4 WARWICK 1

Camden - Kentish Town South: GRN 38 LAB 36 NASSER 16 LD 5 CON 5

Camden - Kilburn: LAB 48 LD 21 CON 17 GRN 13

Cheshire East - Crewe West: LAB 44 CON 25 RFM 20 LD 5 CREWE FIRST 3 GRN 3

Manchester - Baguely - LAB 53 GRN 26 LD 13 CON 5 SDP 3

Merthyr Tydfil - Bedlinog and Trelewis: DROZD 51 LAB 29 SEARL 9 PC 8 CON 3

Redcar and Cleveland - Longbeck: CON 42 LAB 38 RFM 14 LD 3 JEFFERIES 1, TURNER 1 COOPER 1

[robbienicoll]

10 entries for the Thursday this week, with corradino, manchesterman and sanders making returns. All on time, but with manchesterman picking up 1 fault for going over in Kentish Town and sanders receiving 6 - 1 for going under in Kilburn and 5 for including a phantom Lib Dem in Crewe.

Camden Square, Camden: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 16% (sanders) to 46.5% (Tony Otim).

Kentish Town South, Camden: 9 Labour hold, with sanders Green gain.

Kilburn, Camden: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 27% (sanders) to 38% (andrewp and Robert Waller).

Crewe West, Cheshire East: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (kevinf) to 35% (batman).

Baguley, Manchester: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 27% (sanders) to 48% (batman).

Bedlinog and Trelewis, Merthyr Tydfil: 7 Independent (Drozd) win, with batman and corradino Labour gain and kevinf Independent (Searl) win.

Longbeck, Redcar and Cleveland: 8 Labour hold, with sanders Conservative gain and manchesterman Reform UK gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cF0aUKqErtNV2ga-9g9xbl2gg9P56acvxgflnsSM2-w/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all for the remaining contests!

[batman]

I'm getting my predictions for next week in early, as I'm off on my hols.

CAMBRIDGE, Romsey : Lab 55 Green 28 LD 10 C 7

GATESHEAD, Bridges : Lab 36 Green 34 RefUK 11 C 10 LD 9

HACKNEY, London Fields : Lab 51 LD 27 C 10 WPB 7 Ind 5

HACKNEY, Stoke Newington : Lab 39 Green 38 LD 11 C 8 Ind 4

MILTON KEYNES, Bletchley E. : Lab 49 C 24 Green 11 Ind 8 LD 6 Heritage 2

NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE, N.Jesmond : LD 46 Lab 26 Green 15 C 6 RefUK 5 PoW 2

NORFOLK, Freebridge Lynn : Ind 45 C 39 Lab 16

N.AYRSHIRE, Arran : C 38 Lab 30 Green 15 Ind 8 LD 5 RefUK 4. Lab win on transfers

N.NORFOLK, N.Walsham Market Cross : LD 53 C 31 Green 9 Lab 7

TOWER HAMLETS, Bow E. : Lab 54 Green 31 LD 9 C 6

[sanders]

Sept 6, 2024 12:36:53 GMT batman said:

I'm getting my predictions for next week in early, as I'm off on my hols.

CAMBRIDGE, Romsey : Lab 55 Green 28 LD 10 C 7

GATESHEAD, Bridges : Lab 36 Green 34 RefUK 11 C 10 LD 9

HACKNEY, London Fields : Lab 44 Green 29 LD 16 WPB 6 Ind 5

HACKNEY, Stoke Newington : Lab 39 Green 38 LD 11 C 8 Ind 4

MILTON KEYNES, Bletchley E. : Lab 49 C 24 Green 11 Ind 8 LD 6 Heritage 2

NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE, N.Jesmond : LD 46 Lab 26 Green 15 C 6 RefUK 5 PoW 2

NORFOLK, Freebridge Lynn : Ind 45 C 39 Lab 16

N.AYRSHIRE, Arran : C 38 Lab 30 Green 15 Ind 8 LD 5 RefUK 4. Lab win on transfers

N.NORFOLK, N.Walsham Market Cross : LD 53 C 31 Green 9 Lab 7

TOWER HAMLETS, Bow E. : Lab 54 Green 31 LD 9 C 6

The Greens aren't contesting London Fields...

[Tony Otim]

Sept 6, 2024 12:36:53 GMT batman said:

I'm getting my predictions for next week in early, as I'm off on my hols.

CAMBRIDGE, Romsey : Lab 55 Green 28 LD 10 C 7

GATESHEAD, Bridges : Lab 36 Green 34 RefUK 11 C 10 LD 9

HACKNEY, London Fields : Lab 44 Green 29 LD 16 WPB 6 Ind 5

HACKNEY, Stoke Newington : Lab 39 Green 38 LD 11 C 8 Ind 4

MILTON KEYNES, Bletchley E. : Lab 49 C 24 Green 11 Ind 8 LD 6 Heritage 2

NEWCASTLE-UPON-TYNE, N.Jesmond : LD 46 Lab 26 Green 15 C 6 RefUK 5 PoW 2

NORFOLK, Freebridge Lynn : Ind 45 C 39 Lab 16

N.AYRSHIRE, Arran : C 38 Lab 30 Green 15 Ind 8 LD 5 RefUK 4. Lab win on transfers

N.NORFOLK, N.Walsham Market Cross : LD 53 C 31 Green 9 Lab 7

TOWER HAMLETS, Bow E. : Lab 54 Green 31 LD 9 C 6

Enjoy the holidays!

[batman]

thanks sanders I have edited it accordingly. Not quite sure how that harpooned.

[Robert Waller]

robbienicoll
Something has gone wrong with the total monthly faults and ranking here
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cF0aUKqErtNV2ga-9g9xbl2gg9P56acvxgflnsSM2-w/edit?gid=0#gid=0

[andrewp]

I see we have 20 by elections on 10 October ( +1 on the 9th). That is Defitnely the most whilst I’ve been playing the game. Do we feel we can do justice to predicting all of those??

[swanarcadian]

Sept 6, 2024 16:26:17 GMT andrewp said:

I see we have 20 by elections on 10 October ( +1 on the 9th). That is Defitnely the most whilst I’ve been playing the game. Do we feel we can do justice to predicting all of those??

Super Thursday!

[Tony Otim]

Sept 6, 2024 16:26:17 GMT andrewp said:

I see we have 20 by elections on 10 October ( +1 on the 9th). That is Defitnely the most whilst I’ve been playing the game. Do we feel we can do justice to predicting all of those??

The challenge is to keep faults under 1000 😉

[sanders]

Cambridge, Romsey - GRN 40 LAB 34, LD 18, CON 7

Gateshead, Bridges - GRN 40, LAB 38, RFM 13, LD 7, CON 2

Hackney, London Fields - IND 46 LAB 42 CON 6 LD 5 WPB 1

Hackney, Stoke Newington - GRN 54 LAB 31 GREGG 5 MAURSHETH-CAHILL 5 BUI 5

Milton Keynes, Bletchley East - LAB 45, CON 35, RFM 10, LD 4, IND 4, HERITAGE 2

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Jesmond - LD 46, LAB 32, GRN 13, REF 4, CON 3, POW 3

Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn - IND 60 CON 37 LAB 3

North Ayrshire, Arran - CON 36, LAB 32, IND 17, RFM 9, LD 6 (LAB win on transfers)

North Norfolk, North Walsham Market Cross - LD 41, CON 35, GRN 16, LAB 8

Tower Hamlets, Bow East - GRN 41, LAB 34, LD 14, CON 10

[Tony Otim]

Sept 8, 2024 7:00:12 GMT sanders said:

Cambridge, Romsey - GRN 40 LAB 34, LD 18, CON 7

Gateshead, Bridges - GRN 40, LAB 38, RFM 13, LD 7, CON 2

Hackney, London Fields - IND 46 LAB 42 CON 6 LD 5 WPB 1

Hackney, Stoke Newington - GRN 54 LAB 31 GREGG 5 MAURSHETH-CAHILL 5 BUI 5

Milton Keynes, Bletchley East - LAB 45, CON 35, RFM 10, LD 4, IND 4, HERITAGE 2

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Jesmond - LD 46, LAB 32, GRN 13, REF 4, CON 3, POW 3

Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn - IND 60 CON 37 LAB 3

North Ayrshire, Arran - CON 36, LAB 32, SNP 23, IND 4, RFM 4, LD 2 (LAB win on transfers)

North Norfolk, North Walsham Market Cross - LD 41, CON 35, GRN 16, LAB 8

Tower Hamlets, Bow East - GRN 41, LAB 34, LD 14, CON 10

You might want to check the candidates standing in Arran - no SNP.

[sanders]

Sept 8, 2024 12:49:12 GMT Tony Otim said:

Sept 8, 2024 7:00:12 GMT sanders said:

Cambridge, Romsey - GRN 40 LAB 34, LD 18, CON 7

Gateshead, Bridges - GRN 40, LAB 38, RFM 13, LD 7, CON 2

Hackney, London Fields - IND 46 LAB 42 CON 6 LD 5 WPB 1

Hackney, Stoke Newington - GRN 54 LAB 31 GREGG 5 MAURSHETH-CAHILL 5 BUI 5

Milton Keynes, Bletchley East - LAB 45, CON 35, RFM 10, LD 4, IND 4, HERITAGE 2

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, North Jesmond - LD 46, LAB 32, GRN 13, REF 4, CON 3, POW 3

Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn - IND 60 CON 37 LAB 3

North Ayrshire, Arran - CON 36, LAB 32, SNP 23, IND 4, RFM 4, LD 2 (LAB win on transfers)

North Norfolk, North Walsham Market Cross - LD 41, CON 35, GRN 16, LAB 8

Tower Hamlets, Bow East - GRN 41, LAB 34, LD 14, CON 10

You might want to check the candidates standing in Arran - no SNP.

Updated. 

[kevinf]

Cambridge
Lab 50, Green 30, LD 10, Con 10
Gateshead
Green 39, Lab 36, Reform 10, LD 8, Con 7
Hackney, London Fields
Lab 50, LD 25, Ind 14, WP 6, Con 5
Hackney, Stokey
Lab 44, Green 28, Ind 12, LD 10, Con 6
Milton Keynes
Lab 42, Con 22, Green 17, Ind 10, LD 8, Heritage 1
Newcastle
LD 49.5, Lab 30, Green 10, Reform 6, Con 4, PoW 0.5
Norfolk
Ind 59, Con 31, Lab 10
North Ayrshire
Con 27, Green 23, Lab 23, Ind 15, LD 9, Reform 3
North Norfolk
Green 38, LD 37, Con 15, Lab 10
Tower Hamlets
Lab 45, Green 28, LD 19, Con 8

[Tony Otim]

Cambridge: Lab 51.7; Grn 23.5; LD 17.0; Con 7.8;
Gateshead: Lab 39.1; Grn 35.5; RefUK 10.9; LD 7.6; Con 6.9
Hackney LF: Lab 56.3; Byrne 18.5; LD 17.5; Con 5.3; WPB 2.5
Hackney SN: Lab 43.6; Grn 39.4; LD 8.7; Con 5.0; Bui 3.3
Milton Keynes: Lab 58.2; Con 20.3; LD 7.9; Grn 6.9; Brady 5.1; Heritage 1.6
Newcastle: LD 40.9; Lab 32.1; RefUK 11.6; Grn 10.0; Con 4.4; PoW 1.0
Norfolk: Ring 66.2; Con 24.8; Lab 9.0
North Ayrshire: McMaster 26.7; Lab 24.8; Con 22.6; Grn 20.7; RefUK 3.2; LD 2.0 (McMaster win)
North Norfolk: LD 43.2; Con 36.4; Lab 11.3; Grn 9.1
Tower Hamlets: Lab 50.3; Grn 35.8; LD 8.6; Con 5.3

[andrewp]

Cambridge, Romsey. Lab 52 Green 25 LD 12 Con 11
Gateshead, Bridges. Lab 45’ Green 30, REfUK 11 Con 8 LD 6
Hackney, London Fields. Lab 43, Byrne 30, LD 13, WP 8 Con 6
Hackney, Stoke Newington. Lab 45 Green 37 LD 10 Con 6 Ind 2
MK, Bletchley East. Lab 52 Con 26 Green 8 LD 8 Ind 5 Her 1
Newcastle. North Jesmond. LD 42 Lab 32 Green 15 Con 7 REFUK 2 PW 2
Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Ind 60 Con 30 Lab 10
North Ayrshire, Arran, Ind 33, Con 24, Lab 22, Green 13, LD 6, RefUK 3. Ind win
North Norfolk. North Walsham Market Cross. LD 49, Con 36, Green 8 Lab 7
Tower Hamlets. Bow East. Lab 64 Green 24 LD 7 Con 5

[manchesterman]

Cambridge: Lab 48; Grn 28; LD 14; Con 10
Gateshead: Lab 38; Grn 33; RefUK 17; LD 6; Con 6
Hackney LF: Lab 44; Byrne 26; LD 16; Con 7; WPB 7
Hackney SN: Lab 45; Grn 38; LD 7; Con 5; Bui 5
Milton Keynes: Lab 53; Con 20; LD 9; Grn 9; Brady 8; Heritage 1
Newcastle: LD 42; Lab 30; Grn 14; RefUK 8; Con 5; PoW 1
Norfolk: Ring 58; Con 34; Lab 8
North Ayrshire: McMaster 26; Lab 24; Con 24; Grn 18; RefUK 4; LD 4 (McMaster win)
North Norfolk: LD 45; Con 39; Lab 8; Grn 8
Tower Hamlets: Lab 52; Grn 32; LD 10; Con 6

[Robert Waller]

Cambridge: Lab 52; Grn 29; LD 14; Con 5

Gateshead: Lab 43; Grn 34; RefUK 10; LD 5; Con 8

Hackney LF: Lab 58; Byrne 21; LD 12; Con 5; WPB 4

Hackney SN: Lab 48; Grn 37; LD 5; Con 5; Bui 5

Milton Keynes: Lab 56; Con 28; LD 5; Grn 5; Brady 4; Heritage 2

Newcastle: LD 38; Lab 30; RefUK 10; Grn 13; Con 5; PoW 4

Norfolk: Ring 62; Con 30; Lab 8

North Ayrshire: McMaster 30; Lab 21; Con 28; Grn 14; RefUK 4; LD 3 (McMaster win)

North Norfolk: LD 50; Con 30; Lab 10; Grn 10

Tower Hamlets: Lab 50; Grn 40; LD 5; Con 5

[rightleaning]

Cambridge, Romsey. Lab 50 Green 28, LD 14, Con 8
Gateshead, Bridges. Lab 42, Green 34, REfUK 11, Con 9, LD 4
Hackney, London Fields. Lab 52, Byrne 28, LD 10, WP 6, Con 4
Hackney, Stoke Newington. Lab 51, Green 36, LD 7, Con 5, Ind 1
Milton Keynes, Bletchley East. Lab 50, Con 30, Green 9, LD 6, Ind 4, Heritage 1
Newcastle. North Jesmond. LD 41, Lab 30, Green 17, Con 9, REFUK 2, PW 1
Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Ind 60 Con 28 Lab 12
North Ayrshire, Arran, Ind 34, Con 26, Lab 16, Green 13, LD 8, RefUK 3. Ind (McMaste) win
North Norfolk. North Walsham Market Cross. LD 52, Con 35, Green 8, Lab 5
Tower Hamlets. Bow East. Lab 58, Green 30, LD 8, Con 4

[iainbhx]

Cambridge DC, Romsey : Lab 47 Grn 29 LDm 15 Con 9

Gateshead MBC, Bridges : Lab 40 Grn 35 RefUK 12 Con 7 LDm 6

Hackney LBC, London Fields : Lab 48 Ind Byrne 32 LDm 11 Con 6 WPB 3

Hackney LBC, Stoke Newington: Lab 45 Grn 40 LDm 8 Con 5 Ind Bui 2

Milton Keynes UA, Bletchley East: Lab 50, Con 30, Ldm 10 Grn 5 Ind Brady 3, Heritage 2

Newcastle upon Tyne MBC, North Jesmond : LDm 36 Lab 31 Grn 16 RefUK 9 Con 7 Women 1

Norfolk CC, Freebridge Lynn: Ind Ring 56 Con 28 Lab 16

North Ayrshire SUA, Arran: Ind McMaster 28 Lab 25 Con 21 Grn 18 RefUK 5 LDm 3 (Lab win on transfers)

North Norfolk DC, North Walsham Market Cross: LDm 48 Con 31 Grn 12 Lab 9

Tower Hamlets LBC, Bow East : Lab 47 Grn 34 LDm 13 Con 6