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Post by batman on Sept 18, 2024 20:54:47 GMT
Interesting thought. Is there a good reason why this wouldn’t work or is it just that this is how we’ve always done it? I used not to enter, afraid of making a fool of myself, but I do that so regularly in other ways I thought why not.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 18, 2024 21:43:28 GMT
Bromsgrove LD 35 Lab 34 Con 25 Green 6
Cornwall Lab 62 LD 22 Green 16
Hartlepool Lab 44 RefUK 40 LD 10 Green 6
Huntingdonshire LD 29 Con 24 Chapman 23 Simons 10 Green 8 Lab 6
Stockton Con 38 RefUK 25 Lab 22 Green 6 Ind 5 LD 3 ND 1 2x Con win
Westminster Harrow Road Lab 59 Con 18 WP 8 LD 8 Green 4 Ind 3
Westminster West End Lab 45 Con 42 LD 8 Green 5
Worthing Lab 52 Con 24 Green 9 RefUK 8 LD 7
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 18, 2024 22:32:59 GMT
Bromsgrove LD 34 Lab 37 Con 24 Green 5
Cornwall Lab 60 LD 20 Green 20
Hartlepool Lab 47 RefUK 37 LD 8 Green 8
Huntingdonshire LD 23 Con 23 Chapman 14 Simonis 24 Green 8 Lab 8
Stockton Con 46 RefUK 12 Lab 26 Green 4 Ind 7 LD 4 ND 1 2 x Con win
Westminster Harrow Road Lab 59 Con 15 WP 8 LD 10 Green 6 Ind 2
Westminster West End Lab 42 Con 40 LD 8 Green 10
Worthing Lab 51 Con 24 Green 10 RefUK 9 LD 6
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 18, 2024 22:37:54 GMT
Bromsgrove DC, Sidemoor: LDm 36 Lab 33 Con 26 Grn 5
Cornwall UA, Falmouth Penwerris: Lab 51 Grn 31 LDm 18
Hartlepool UA, Burn Valley: Lab 50 RefUK 41 Grn 6 LDm 3
Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eatons: Con 30 LDm 25 Ind Chapman 20 Grn 10 Ind Simonis 8 Lab 7
Stockton UA, Fairfield : Con 32 Lab 27 RefUK 20 Ind Gibben 11 Grn 6 LDm 3 ND Bell-Berry 1 (Con Win*2)
Westminster LBC, Harrow Road : Lab 48 Con 20 WPB 14 Grn 10 LDm 6 Ind 2
Westminster LBC, West End: Con 42 Lab 39 Grn 12 LDm 7
Worthing DC, Marine: Lab 50 Con 23 RefUK 13 Grn 10 LDm 4
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Post by rightleaning on Sept 19, 2024 5:41:46 GMT
Bromsgrove DC, Sidemoor: Lab 35, LD 34, Con 27, Gn 4
Cornwall UA, Falmouth Penwerris: Lab 54, Gn 27, LD 19
Hartlepool UA, Burn Valley: Lab 47, RefUK 43, Gn 7, LD 3
Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eatons: Ind Chapman 32, Con 30, LD 18, Gn 8, Ind Simonis 7, Lab 5
Stockton UA, Fairfield : Con 36, Lab 33, Ind Gibben 18, Gn 7, LD 4, ND Bell-Berry 2 (Con Win 1, Lab win 1)
Westminster LBC, Harrow Road : Lab 51, Con 21, Grn 12, WPB 9, LD 6, Ind 2
Westminster LBC, West End: Lab 41,Con 38, Grn 15, Lm 6,
Worthing DC, Marine: Lab 45, Con 25, RefUK 15, Gn 11, LD 4
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 19, 2024 6:40:26 GMT
Bromsgrove DC, Sidemoor: LDm 36 Lab 33 Con 26 Grn 5 Cornwall UA, Falmouth Penwerris: Lab 51 Grn 31 LDm 18 Hartlepool UA, Burn Valley: Lab 50 RefUK 41 Grn 6 LDm 3 Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eatons: Con 30 LDm 25 Ind Chapman 20 Grn 10 Ind Simonis 8 Lab 7 Stockton UA, Fairfield : Con 37 Lab 32 Ind Gibben 18 Grn 7 LDm 4 ND Bell-Berry 2 ( Con Win*2) Westminster LBC, Harrow Road : Lab 48 Con 20 WPB 14 Grn 10 LDm 6 Ind 2 Westminster LBC, West End: Con 42 Lab 39 Grn 12 LDm 7 Worthing DC, Marine: Lab 50 Con 23 RefUK 13 Grn 10 LDm 4 I don't know if you'll see this in time, but I think you've missed Reform in Stockton... as has rightleaning, who I'm guessing copied your format. |
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Post by iainbhx on Sept 19, 2024 7:19:26 GMT
Bromsgrove DC, Sidemoor: LDm 36 Lab 33 Con 26 Grn 5 Cornwall UA, Falmouth Penwerris: Lab 51 Grn 31 LDm 18 Hartlepool UA, Burn Valley: Lab 50 RefUK 41 Grn 6 LDm 3 Huntingdonshire DC, St Neots Eatons: Con 30 LDm 25 Ind Chapman 20 Grn 10 Ind Simonis 8 Lab 7 Stockton UA, Fairfield : Con 37 Lab 32 Ind Gibben 18 Grn 7 LDm 4 ND Bell-Berry 2 ( Con Win*2) Westminster LBC, Harrow Road : Lab 48 Con 20 WPB 14 Grn 10 LDm 6 Ind 2 Westminster LBC, West End: Con 42 Lab 39 Grn 12 LDm 7 Worthing DC, Marine: Lab 50 Con 23 RefUK 13 Grn 10 LDm 4 I don't know if you'll see this in time, but I think you've missed Reform in Stockton... as has rightleaning, who I'm guessing copied your format. I have with about 40 mins to go, thanks a lot. |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 19, 2024 10:49:36 GMT
Certainly an interesting set of elections to predict this week with almost every contest in a different type of area, although not as varied as the 2 big weeks in October will be!
On paper there are only probably 2 of the 8 today, where I’d say the winner is fairly certain. In at least 2, possibly 3, there would seem to more than 2 possible winners.
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Post by kevinf on Sept 19, 2024 14:53:07 GMT
Bromsgrove Lab 49, LD 26, Con 17, Green 8 Cornwall Lab 50, LD 35, Green 15 Hartlepool Lab 50, Reform 39, LD 6, Green 5 Huntingdonshire LD 29, Con 21, Ind Chapman 20, Ind Simonis 12, Green 10, Lab 8 Stockton Lab 31, Reform 29, Con 28, LD 8, Ind Gibben 7, No Description Bell-Berry 1 Westminster Harrow Rd Lab 46, Green 17, Ind 12, LD 11.5, Con 10.5, WP 3 Westminster West End Lab 45, Con 30, LD 15, Green 10 Worthing Lab 51, Con 14, Green 12, Reform 12, LD 11 Just for clarity with regard to Stockton - are you predicting Labour taking both seats (which is what will be assumed from the prediction)? Your prediction is close enough that it could easily be a split result, but you'd need to specify this to avoid wrong winner faults... Ah yes, both seats. I presumed it was like Scottish elections and you only had to say if it was a different result to your first prediction. |
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Post by kevinf on Sept 19, 2024 14:54:17 GMT
I've never entered the competition and so not read the rules and may have misunderstood how it is calculated. If it is based on the difference between a predicted percentage share for each candidate and the share they actually achieve then wouldn't it be simpler for the the volunteers running it to accept all entries, mistakes and all? It's more likely to make the prediction less accurate anyway. Do enter. The best predictor at the end of the year wins £100. Don’t they? |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 19, 2024 22:49:39 GMT
8 entries for the Thursday, with ClevelandYorks making a first appearance whilst sanders drops out. All on time, but with kevinf picking up 4 faults for going over in Stockton and Right Leaning receiving 1 for going over in Harrow Road. Sidemoor, Bromsgrove: 4 Labour hold, with andrewp, ClevelandYorks and iainbhx Liberal Democrat gain, and Tony Otim Conservative gain. Falmouth Penwerris, Cornwall: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 15% (kevinf) to 44% (ClevelandYorks). Burn Valley, Hartlepool: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 4% (andrewp and Right Leaning) to 19% (batman). St Neots Eatons, Huntingdonshire: 4 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, with batman, iainbhx and Tony Otim Conservative hold, and Right Leaning Independent (Chapman) gain. Fairfield, Stockton-on-Tees: 5 Conservative 2x holds, with ClevelandYorks and Right Leaning 1 Conservative hold and 1 Labour gain, and kevinf with Labour 2x gains. Harrow Road, Westminster: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 22% (batman) to 50% (ClevelandYorks). West End, Westminster: 5 Labour hold, with batman, ClevelandYorks and iainbhx Conservative gain. Marine, Worthing: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 9% (batman) to 37% (kevinf). Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yjK0ah2KMiuLDECGNmGCFCh3eemsP23ehKuLXAlT_-4/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all! |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 20, 2024 12:13:05 GMT
robbienicoll - I think we'll need guidance for Cromarty Firth at the end of the month as there are 2 Reform candidates for the double vacancy and I don't think we've ever 2 candidates from the same party for an STV by-election before. I would suggest predicting the total vote share for both candidates added together makes most sense, but would be good to get the official ruling... Bump... This is coming up next week now, so would be good to get a ruling... |
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Post by andrewp on Sept 20, 2024 12:19:35 GMT
robbienicoll - I think we'll need guidance for Cromarty Firth at the end of the month as there are 2 Reform candidates for the double vacancy and I don't think we've ever 2 candidates from the same party for an STV by-election before. I would suggest predicting the total vote share for both candidates added together makes most sense, but would be good to get the official ruling... Bump... This is coming up next week now, so would be good to get a ruling... Also, I assume we are treating the 5 Indies separately there?. Oh joy! |
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 20, 2024 13:09:48 GMT
Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yjK0ah2KMiuLDECGNmGCFCh3eemsP23ehKuLXAlT_-4/edit?gid=0#gid=0robbienicollAt present the final weekly and monthly totals do not agree with my own calculations - they look rather like the totals without the Stockton Fairfield ward, and I don't think the 'contest winner' there has been added in either ... I do apologise as this may appear self-serving! And even more apologies if I am incorrect.  In any case clear congrats to iainbhx who wins the week and extends his monthly lead, to batman for a very good showing this week, and commiserations to those who missed the Monday contest. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 20, 2024 13:17:17 GMT
And please note 2 Tuesday contests next week.
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Post by batman on Sept 20, 2024 16:06:52 GMT
Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yjK0ah2KMiuLDECGNmGCFCh3eemsP23ehKuLXAlT_-4/edit?gid=0#gid=0robbienicoll At present the final weekly and monthly totals do not agree with my own calculations - they look rather like the totals without the Stockton Fairfield ward, and I don't think the 'contest winner' there has been added in either ... I do apologise as this may appear self-serving! And even more apologies if I am incorrect. In any case clear congrats to iainbhx who wins the week and extends his monthly lead, to batman for a very good showing this week, and commiserations to those who missed the Monday contest. as always when this happens, I'd prefer to have held all our seats to doing well in the prediction competition. I knew that some people had overestimated Labour's strength in Marine ward. If you were to go there, you'd be amazed that Labour won it so many times in a row. |
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Post by batman on Sept 23, 2024 9:23:02 GMT
MID-SUFFOLK, Thurston : Green 50 C 44 Lab 6
WAVERLEY DC, Godalming Binscombe & Charterhouse : LD 35 C 34 Green 17 Lab 14
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Post by sanders on Sept 23, 2024 9:55:24 GMT
MID SUFFOLK, THURSTON: CON 46 GRN 42 LAB 12
WAVERLEY, GODALMING, BRINSCOMBE & CHARTERHOUSE: CON 43 LD 41 GRN 11 LAB 5
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Post by batman on Sept 23, 2024 10:12:37 GMT
I'm having second thoughts about Waverley & will edit. I don't think I thought it entirely through.
Duly edited. I'm sticking with a LD win though.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 23, 2024 12:39:48 GMT
Mid Suffolk: Grn 56.6; Con 37.9; Lab 5.5
Waverley: LD 42.6; Con 36.3; Grn 13.3; Lab 7.8
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