Prediction Competition - September 2024

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 37 by-elections for 39 seats to be held during September - Super Thursdays are back!

- 1 by-election on 3 September (a Tuesday)
- 7 on 5 September
- 10 on 12 September
- 1 on 16 September (a Monday)
- 8 on 19 September including one double election
- 2 on 24 September (a Tuesday)
- 8 on 26 September including one double election

9 by-elections are for district councils, 2 of which were last contested in May, 6 in 2023 and 1 in 2022
9 including one of the doubles are for unitary authorities, 2 of which were last contested in May, 6 including one of the doubles in 2023 and 1 in 2021
8 are for London borough councils, all last contested in 2022
5 including one of the doubles are for Scottish councils, all last contested in 2022
3 are for metropolitan borough councils, all last contested in 2024
2 are for Welsh councils, both last contested in 2022
1 is for a county council, which was last contested in a 2023 by-election with the last full election in 2021

Labour defend 21 seats, 19 following a resignation (2 of which were sitting as an Independent) and 2 following the death of the previous councillor
Liberal Democrats defend 7 seats including one of the seats in one of the doubles, 5 following a resignation (1 of which was sitting as an Independent) and 2 following the death of the previous councillor
Conservatives defend 5 seats including both the seats in one of the doubles, 4 following a resignation and 1 following the death of the previous councillor
Independents defend 3 seats, 2 following a resignation and 1 following the death of the previous councillor
Highland Independents defend 1 seat in one of the doubles following a resignation

With 28/37 SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 28 Labour candidates, 26 Conservatives, 25 Liberal Democrats, 20 Greens, 10 Reform UK, 2 Workers Party along with 1 apiece for Plaid Cymru, Scottish Greens, Crewe First, Social Democratic Party, Heritage Party and Party for Women together with 16 Independents contesting 12 elections and 1 No Description contesting 1 election – a total of 134 candidates for 28 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[Tony Otim]

robbienicoll - I think we'll need guidance for Cromarty Firth at the end of the month as there are 2 Reform candidates for the double vacancy and I don't think we've ever 2 candidates from the same party for an STV by-election before. I would suggest predicting the total vote share for both candidates added together makes most sense, but would be good to get the official ruling...

[iainbhx]

Oh boy, this is going to be a lot of work.

[kevinf]

Let’s get the ball rolling…
Swale 3 Sept
LD 53, Lab 18, Con 16, Ref 13

[batman]

SWALE, Priory : LD 58 C 24 Lab 10 RefUK 8

[Tony Otim]

SWALE Priory: LD 49.0; Con 18.2; RefUK 16.6; Lab 16.2

[Robert Waller]

SWALE, Priory : LD 48 C 23 Lab 15 RefUK 14

[andrewp]

Swale Priory. LD 53 Con 19 Lab 15 RefUK 13

[iainbhx]

Swale BC, Priory: LDm 44 RefUK 24 Lab 17 Con 15

[rightleaning]

SWALE, Priory : LD 48, C 29, RefUK 14, Lab 9

[robbienicoll]

7 entries to begin the bumper month, all on time and correct.

Priory, Swale: 100% Liberal Democrat hold, with majorities ranging from 19% (Right Leaning) to 35% (kevinf).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nf2XPLjdLz6jyYoIDhoR9pllBOIKmdB4ngZZgkaI7DM/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[batman]

CAMDEN, Camden Square : Lab 57 Green 14 LD 11 C 7 Ind Warwick 6 Ind Farah 5

CAMDEN, Kentish Town S. : Lab 43 Green 24 LD 15 C 11 Ind 7

CAMDEN, Kilburn : Lab 54 C 18 Green 16 LD 12

CHESHIRE E., Crewe W. : Lab 52 Crewe 1st 17 Ref UK 12 C 11 Green 8

MANCHESTER, Baguley : Lab 63 Green 15 C 13 LD 6 SDP 3

MERTHYR TYDFIL, Bedlinog & Trelewis : Lab 28 Ind Drozd 26 Ind Searl 24 PC 15 C 7

REDCAR & CLEVELAND, Longbeck : Lab 26 Ind Jeffries 21 RefUK 18 C 16 Ind Turner 8 Ind Cooper 6 LD 5

[kevinf]

Camden - Camden Square
Lab 48, Ind Farah 20, LD 12, Green 10, Con 8, Ind Warwick 2
Camden - Kentish Town
Lab 35, Green 29, Ind 14, LD 12, Con 10
Camden - Kilburn
Lab 57, LD 20, Co. 14, Green 9
Cheshire East
Lab 40, Crewe 1st 31, Ref UK 12, Con 9, Green 8
Manchester
Lab 57, Gre3n 21, Con 11, LD 10, SDP 1
Merthyr
Ind Searl 31, Ind Drozd 27, Lab 23, Con 10, PC 9
Redcar
Lab 38, Ind Turner 17, Con 14, Ref UK 14, Ind Jeffries 8, LD 7, Ind Cooper 2

[Tony Otim]

Camden Square: Lab 59.4; Farah 12.9; Grn 10.0; LD 9.1; Con 5.6; Warwick 3.0
Kentish Town South: Lab 48.5; Grn 25.8; Naser 13.1; LD 6.9; Con 5.7
Kilburn: Lab 53.6; LD 20.8; Con 14.0; Grn 11.6
Cheshire East: Lab 46.3; RefUK 23.7; Con 11.8; Crewe1st 10.1; Grn 8.1
Manchester: Lab 59.7; Grn 16.7; Con 14.4; LD 7.6; SDP 1.6
Merthyr: Drozd 42.6; Lab 28.0; PC 14.5; Searl 11.2; Con 3.7
Redcar: Lab 20.7; RefUK 18.3; Turner 16.6; Con 15.3; Jeffries 14.2; Cooper 10.7; LD 4.2

[iainbhx]

Camden LBC, Camden Square: Lab 45 Ind Ali 18 Grn 16 LDm 12 Con 7 Ind Warwick 2
Camden LBC, Kentish Town South: Lab 44 Grn 30 Ind Naser 15 LDm 6 Con 5
Camden LBC, Kilburn: Lab 51 LDm 20 Grn 15 Con 14
Cheshire East UA, Crewe West: Lab 45 Con 25 RefUK 18 Crewe1st 8 Grn 4
Manchester MBC, Baguley: Lab 52 Grn 26 Con 15 LDm 6 SDP 1
Methyr Tudful WUA, Bedlinog & Trelewis: Ind Drozd 41 Lab 34 PC 14 Ind Searl 7 Con 4
Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck: Lab 28 Ind Jefferies 24 RefUK 16 Con 14 Ind Cooper 10 Ind Turner 6 LDm 2

[andrewp]

Camden, Camden Square. Lab 41, Ind Farah 22, Green 15 LD 12 Con 8 Ind Warwick 2
Camden. Kentish Town South. Lab 44, Green 24, Ind Naser 17, LD 9 Con 6
Camden, Kilburn. Lab 56, LD 18, Con 16, Green 10
Cheshire East, Crewe West. Lab 49, Con 17, RefUK 15, Crewe First 12, Green 7
Manchester, Baguely. Lab 59 Green 17 Con 13, LD 7, SDP 4
Merthyr, Bedlinog and Trelewis. Drozd 35 Lab 33 Searl 16 PC 13 Con 3
Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck. Lab 27 Con 16 Jefferies 16 RefUK 15, Turner 12, Cooper 11, LD 3

[Robert Waller]

Camden LBC, Camden Square: Lab 53 Ind Farah 15 Grn 11 LDm 13 Con 6 Ind Warwick 2

Camden LBC, Kentish Town South: Lab 48 Grn 27 Ind Naser 12 LDm 8 Con 5

Camden LBC, Kilburn: Lab 54 LDm 16 Grn 16 Con 14

Cheshire East UA, Crewe West: Lab 48 Con 17 RefUK 24 Crewe1st 7 Grn 4

Manchester MBC, Baguley: Lab 60 Grn 15 Con 18 LDm 5 SDP 2

Merthyr Tydfil WUA, Bedlinog & Trelewis: Ind Drozd 36 Lab 35 PC 15 Ind Searl 10 Con 4

Redcar & Cleveland UA, Longbeck: Lab 33 Ind Jefferies 12 RefUK 21 Con 15 Ind Cooper 8 Ind Turner 8 LDm 3

[manchesterman]

CAMDEN, Camden Square : Lab 45, Ind Farah 18, Green 18, LD 8, Con 8, Ind Warwick 3

CAMDEN, Kentish Town S. : Lab 42, Green 28, Ind Naser 16, LD 8, Con 7

CAMDEN, Kilburn : Lab 50, Con 18, Green 16, LD 16

CHESHIRE E., Crewe W. : Lab 44, Con 22, Ref UK 22, Crewe 1st 8, Green 4

MANCHESTER, Baguley : Lab 56, Green 25, Con 12, LD 5, SDP 2

MERTHYR TYDFIL, Bedlinog & Trelewis : Ind Drozd 36, Lab 30, PC 16, Ind Searl 12, Con 6

REDCAR & CLEVELAND, Longbeck : Ref UK 26, Lab 25, Ind Jeffries 20, Con 14, Ind Turner 6, Ind Cooper 6, LD 3


Didn't realise there was an election yesterday 

[corradino]

Camden, Camden Square: Lab 49, Green 15, Farah (Ind) 14, LD 12, Con 8, Warwick (Ind) 2.

Camden, Kentish Town S.: Lab 44, Green 26, Naser (Ind) 13, LD 9, Con 8.

Camden, Kilburn: Lab 52, LD 18, Green 16, Con 14.

Cheshire E., Crewe W.: Lab 38, Crewe 1st 23, Reform 19, Con 13, Green 7.

Manchester, Baguley: Lab 54, Green 24, Con 13.5, LD 7, SDP 1.5.

Merthyr Tydfil, Bedlinog etc: Lab 28, Drozd (Ind) 26, Searle (Ind) 24, PC 13, Con 9.

Redcar & Cleveland, Longbeck: Lab 26, Reform 20, Jeffries (Ind) 17, Turner (Ind) 14, Con 14, Cooper (Ind) 5, LD 4.

[rightleaning]

Camden, Camden Square. Lab 50, Ind Farah 17, Green 15, LD 9, Con 7, Ind Warwick 2
Camden. Kentish Town South. Lab 42, Green 24, Ind Naser 18, LD 11, Con 5
Camden, Kilburn. Lab 53, LD 21, Con 14, Green 12,
Cheshire East, Crewe West. Lab 42, Con 21, RefUK 14, Crewe First 13, Green 10,
Manchester, Baguely. Lab 58, Green 25, Con 9, LD 7, SDP 1
Merthyr, Bedlinog and Trelewis. Drozd 37, Lab 33, Searl, 15 PC 11, Con 4
Redcar and Cleveland, Longbeck. Lab 31, Con 18, RefUK 18, Jefferies 14, Turner 9, Cooper 6, LD 4