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Blackburn
Jul 6, 2024 15:59:28 GMT
via mobile
Post by islington on Jul 6, 2024 15:59:28 GMT
Well, looks like I will have to eat my proverbial hat... Maybe there should be a Forum hat eating meet up? I'm in.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,205
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 8, 2024 20:41:47 GMT
Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019.
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Blackburn
Jul 8, 2024 20:56:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by mattbewilson on Jul 8, 2024 20:56:37 GMT
Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019. this has been my experience since before the local elections
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,646
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 11, 2024 19:52:23 GMT
Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019. Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.
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Blackburn
Jul 11, 2024 19:59:06 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Jul 11, 2024 19:59:06 GMT
Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019. Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course. Mind you, the candidates - Hussain and Murray - did well.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,745
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 11, 2024 20:03:59 GMT
Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course. I do wonder - and I may be extrapolating quite unfairly from somewhere that I know much better than Blackburn but which also starts with a 'B' - if a certain atrophication of the Party's machine (which was once so impressive in Blackburn) occurred over the past fifteen years due to it being easy enough to simply put in a few phone calls and watch the votes pile up.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,646
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 11, 2024 20:07:42 GMT
Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course. I do wonder - and I may be extrapolating quite unfairly from somewhere that I know much better than Blackburn but which also starts with a 'B' - if a certain atrophication of the Party's machine (which was once so impressive in Blackburn) occurred over the past fifteen years due to it being easy enough to simply put in a few phone calls and watch the votes pile up. Possibly, but the Labour team were campaigning all day on Highercroft and reporting that people were saying "maybe later", "she'll win anyway", etc.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,646
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 11, 2024 20:17:02 GMT
Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course. Mind you, the candidates - Hussain and Murray - did well. They did indeed, Mike. I actually had quite a few good-naturedexchanges with the Murray campaign, and they at least canvassed Mill Hill. Mr Hussein, despite his claim to be involved in all communities, was unknown to all the non-Muslim groups I am involved with, and only recently known to the Muslim members of the multi-faith groups I know, , and targeted only the Muslim community. The turnout was probably 63% among Muslims and 44%, among non-Muslims.
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Post by iainbhx on Jul 11, 2024 20:38:56 GMT
I'm informed the new MP has yet to be sworn in.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,736
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Post by andrea on Jul 11, 2024 21:17:17 GMT
I'm informed the new MP has yet to be sworn in. Yes, he is one of the 17 still missing.
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