Blackburn

[islington]

Jul 6, 2024 14:34:45 GMT finsobruce said:

Jul 6, 2024 13:42:30 GMT bsjmcr said:

Well, looks like I will have to eat my proverbial hat...

Maybe there should be a Forum hat eating meet up?

I'm in.

[The Bishop]

Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019.

[mattbewilson]

Jul 8, 2024 20:41:47 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019.

this has been my experience since before the local elections

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 8, 2024 20:41:47 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019.

Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.

[Merseymike]

Jul 11, 2024 19:52:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Jul 8, 2024 20:41:47 GMT The Bishop said:

Labour thought they might lose the Batley/Dewsbury seat (though they also expected it to be close, which it wasn't) but were not expecting defeat in the other Gaza Indy wins including this one. It seems clear that some Muslim voters who told Labour canvassers they would still vote for them were not telling the truth and either abstained or actually voted against. There were strikingly similar anecdotal accounts from several "Red Wall" losses in 2019.

Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.

Mind you, the candidates - Hussain and Murray - did well.

[Sibboleth]

Jul 11, 2024 19:52:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.

I do wonder - and I may be extrapolating quite unfairly from somewhere that I know much better than Blackburn but which also starts with a 'B' - if a certain atrophication of the Party's machine (which was once so impressive in Blackburn) occurred over the past fifteen years due to it being easy enough to simply put in a few phone calls and watch the votes pile up.

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 11, 2024 20:03:59 GMT Sibboleth said:

Jul 11, 2024 19:52:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.

I do wonder - and I may be extrapolating quite unfairly from somewhere that I know much better than Blackburn but which also starts with a 'B' - if a certain atrophication of the Party's machine (which was once so impressive in Blackburn) occurred over the past fifteen years due to it being easy enough to simply put in a few phone calls and watch the votes pile up.

Possibly, but the Labour team were campaigning all day on Highercroft and reporting that people were saying "maybe later", "she'll win anyway", etc.

[CatholicLeft]

Jul 11, 2024 19:59:06 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 11, 2024 19:52:23 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Lots of non-Muslim voters just believed the polls and the narrative that Labour were walking it, so didn't bother voting. The turnout in the Muslim-heavy polling station in my church hall in Audley Range was matched by lack of enthusiasm in Highercroft, Intack and Shadsworth. If only 45 Labour voters had turned out in each of these estates, Kate Hollern would have held on - the same for Mill Hill, of course.

Mind you, the candidates - Hussain and Murray - did well.

They did indeed, Mike. I actually had quite a few good-naturedexchanges with the Murray campaign, and they at least canvassed Mill Hill. Mr Hussein, despite his claim to be involved in all communities, was unknown to all the non-Muslim groups I am involved with, and only recently known to the Muslim members of the multi-faith groups I know, , and targeted only the Muslim community. The turnout was probably 63% among Muslims and 44%, among non-Muslims.

[iainbhx]

I'm informed the new MP has yet to be sworn in.

[andrea]

Jul 11, 2024 20:38:56 GMT iainbhx said:

I'm informed the new MP has yet to be sworn in.

Yes, he is one of the 17 still missing.

[Pete Whitehead]

I'm about to start work on notional ward results for Lancashire and Blackburn promises to be challenging as well as fascinating, due to the split vote between the Workers Party and the victorious Independent.
I wonder if those with local knowledge (looking particularly at CatholicLeft of course) have some idea about how this split was manifested. I take the Workers Party vote to be overwhelmingly made up of muslims, though this will vary - I would think Galloway won more than a derisory number of white votes in Rochdale whereas others elsewhere would have won hardly any. Where does Murray fit into this? I should imagine there are a limited number of far-left conspiracy theorists in somewhere like Blackburn.

What about the differences arising from ethinicity? Almost all the South Asian population of Blackburn are of the Islamic faith, but a substantial minority are of Indian rather than Pakistani origin. Was there any evidence that Murray did better with one of these ethnic groups than the other? What is Adnan Hussain's background? Wiki gives few clues (except that he comes from Burnley which increases the odds of him being of Pakistani rather than Indian heritage).
Then we have Tiger Patel and the other Independent to consider (although their vote numbers are too trivial to worry much about.)

[sanders]

Oct 20, 2024 16:48:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm about to start work on notional ward results for Lancashire and Blackburn promises to be challenging as well as fascinating, due to the split vote between the Workers Party and the victorious Independent.
I wonder if those with local knowledge (looking particularly at CatholicLeft of course) have some idea about how this split was manifested. I take the Workers Party vote to be overwhelmingly made up of muslims, though this will vary - I would think Galloway won more than a derisory number of white votes in Rochdale whereas others elsewhere would have won hardly any. Where does Murray fit into this? I should imagine there are a limited number of far-left conspiracy theorists in somewhere like Blackburn.

What about the differences arising from ethinicity? Almost all the South Asian population of Blackburn are of the Islamic faith, but a substantial minority are of Indian rather than Pakistani origin. Was there any evidence that Murray did better with one of these ethnic groups than the other? What is Adnan Hussain's background? Wiki gives few clues (except that he comes from Burnley which increases the odds of him being of Pakistani rather than Indian heritage).
Then we have Tiger Patel and the other Independent to consider (although their vote numbers are too trivial to worry much about.)

Great work - looking forward to this. 

[CatholicLeft]

Oct 20, 2024 16:48:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm about to start work on notional ward results for Lancashire and Blackburn promises to be challenging as well as fascinating, due to the split vote between the Workers Party and the victorious Independent.
I wonder if those with local knowledge (looking particularly at CatholicLeft of course) have some idea about how this split was manifested. I take the Workers Party vote to be overwhelmingly made up of muslims, though this will vary - I would think Galloway won more than a derisory number of white votes in Rochdale whereas others elsewhere would have won hardly any. Where does Murray fit into this? I should imagine there are a limited number of far-left conspiracy theorists in somewhere like Blackburn.

What about the differences arising from ethinicity? Almost all the South Asian population of Blackburn are of the Islamic faith, but a substantial minority are of Indian rather than Pakistani origin. Was there any evidence that Murray did better with one of these ethnic groups than the other? What is Adnan Hussain's background? Wiki gives few clues (except that he comes from Burnley which increases the odds of him being of Pakistani rather than Indian heritage).
Then we have Tiger Patel and the other Independent to consider (although their vote numbers are too trivial to worry much about.)

I will have a look at responding to this over the next day or two.

[iain]

I’d also imagine the LD vote in Burnley / Green vote in Hyndburn or Huddersfield is going to be virtually impossible to model, with candidates acting as a hybrid between their own party and as a Gaza Indie.

[Johncrane]

Oct 20, 2024 16:48:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm about to start work on notional ward results for Lancashire and Blackburn promises to be challenging as well as fascinating, due to the split vote between the Workers Party and the victorious Independent.
I wonder if those with local knowledge (looking particularly at CatholicLeft of course) have some idea about how this split was manifested. I take the Workers Party vote to be overwhelmingly made up of muslims, though this will vary - I would think Galloway won more than a derisory number of white votes in Rochdale whereas others elsewhere would have won hardly any. Where does Murray fit into this? I should imagine there are a limited number of far-left conspiracy theorists in somewhere like Blackburn.

What about the differences arising from ethinicity? Almost all the South Asian population of Blackburn are of the Islamic faith, but a substantial minority are of Indian rather than Pakistani origin. Was there any evidence that Murray did better with one of these ethnic groups than the other? What is Adnan Hussain's background? Wiki gives few clues (except that he comes from Burnley which increases the odds of him being of Pakistani rather than Indian heritage).
Then we have Tiger Patel and the other Independent to consider (although their vote numbers are too trivial to worry much about.)

According to Craig Murray Adnan received almost no non Muslim votes www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/07/the-muslim-vote/?amp=1 he also seems to implying that a decent size of his vote share was white. As for the ethnicity of adnan’s supporters a campaigner for him informed me that more Indians supported him than Pakistani however I believe adnan is of Pakistani heritage.

[jamie]

Oct 20, 2024 21:11:42 GMT iain said:

I’d also imagine the LD vote in Burnley / Green vote in Hyndburn or Huddersfield is going to be virtually impossible to model, with candidates acting as a hybrid between their own party and as a Gaza Indie.

Tbf in Huddersfield you had 2024 local elections which showed the Greens already surging in Muslim areas, so you have a good base to model from. It’s the Burnley result which really stands out, and given their vote tripled in a Labour target seat (very unusual) I’d imagine it’s quite a bit more of a Gaza indie vote than a Lib Dem local vote. 

[eastmidlandsright]

Oct 20, 2024 22:17:50 GMT Johncrane said:

Oct 20, 2024 16:48:27 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I'm about to start work on notional ward results for Lancashire and Blackburn promises to be challenging as well as fascinating, due to the split vote between the Workers Party and the victorious Independent.
I wonder if those with local knowledge (looking particularly at CatholicLeft of course) have some idea about how this split was manifested. I take the Workers Party vote to be overwhelmingly made up of muslims, though this will vary - I would think Galloway won more than a derisory number of white votes in Rochdale whereas others elsewhere would have won hardly any. Where does Murray fit into this? I should imagine there are a limited number of far-left conspiracy theorists in somewhere like Blackburn.

What about the differences arising from ethinicity? Almost all the South Asian population of Blackburn are of the Islamic faith, but a substantial minority are of Indian rather than Pakistani origin. Was there any evidence that Murray did better with one of these ethnic groups than the other? What is Adnan Hussain's background? Wiki gives few clues (except that he comes from Burnley which increases the odds of him being of Pakistani rather than Indian heritage).
Then we have Tiger Patel and the other Independent to consider (although their vote numbers are too trivial to worry much about.)

According to Craig Murray Adnan received almost no non Muslim votes www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2024/07/the-muslim-vote/?amp=1 he also seems to implying that a decent size of his vote share was white. As for the ethnicity of adnan’s supporters a campaigner for him informed me that more Indians supported him than Pakistani however I believe adnan is of Pakistani heritage.

Murray's claim sounds pretty reasonable on face value. I suspect that all four of the Muslim Independents elected got very few non-Muslim votes but Adnan Hussain was probably the most extreme example as Murray will likely have taken almost all of the non-Muslim lefties who might otherwise have voted for Hussain.

On a wider point it is interesting to see Murray come close to realising that the Muslim alliance with the left is simply one of convenience. 

[sanders]

Hussain is the Squad member I know least about. I'd say Adam and Mohamed (Leicester South, and Dewsbury & Batley) seem the most active online, followed by Ayoub Khan. Of course, Corbyn's social media is in a tier of its own. Yes, I'm calling them the Squad. Independent Alliance is way too clunky. If they were in Labour, they'd be called the awkward squad anyway.