Blackburn

[Sibboleth]

One thing I would note in a speculative sense is that there are other issues that might also be causing heightened emotions and so also encouraging a 'need' to express communal unity at the moment - about half of the South Asian Muslim population in Blackburn are of Gujarati Indian rather than Pakistani descent - and that sometimes multiple issues cascade into and under the one that is the most high profile.

[greyfriar]

May 6, 2024 18:41:43 GMT Sibboleth said:

One thing I would note in a speculative sense is that there are other issues that might also be causing heightened emotions and so also encouraging a 'need' to express communal unity at the moment - about half of the South Asian Muslim population in Blackburn are of Gujarati Indian rather than Pakistani descent - and that sometimes multiple issues cascade into and under the one that is the most high profile.

Interesting observation, indeed the majority of the defeated Labour candidates are of Asian heritage and it’d require greater insight to understand whether this divides across ethnic/regional lines.

[YL]

If you group the Independents who did best in each ward together then for the local elections in this constituency you get

Top Ind 9807 (42.6%)
Lab 7998 (34.7%)
Con 3851 (16.7%)
Second Ind/ND 826 (3.6%)
Green 556 (2.4%)

The Greens only stood in three wards. Two wards had two Independent candidates (well, in one case one of them was No Description) and one ward had none. I don't know whether all the Independent candidates can be put under the "pro-Palestinian" label but if there are any who can't I don't think they got many votes.

Anyway, I don't think these results point to Craig Murray MP. However you calculate it pro-Palestinian Independents' lead over Labour can't have been more than about 10 percentage points, and that's with a very striking turnout differential between the wards they won and the wards won by Labour (where the turnout was frankly dire) which will presumably be weaker in the General Election. I don't think Labour should be complacent but I think General Election voting and especially turnout patterns are likely to be different enough to put them ahead.

[Sg1]

All this shows is that Craig Murray might hold his deposit and break 10% if he's lucky

[CatholicLeft]

Cllr. Tiger Patel is muddying the waters for Craig Murray - he is standing as an Independent candidate, despite the public backing he received from George Galloway at the local elections.

[bsjmcr]

Quite something that the thread for this seat has the most posts/pages of all of those in the north west, yet on election night it will get all of 5 seconds coverage on the ticker as “LAB Hold Blackburn”… (and it’s not Jack Straw any more either)

I’m surprised people aren’t talking so much about Alty and Sale W, Bolton West, and of course Fylde

[Merseymike]

Pendle and Clitheroe, and Rochdale, could be interesting.

[thirdchill]

May 23, 2024 10:19:00 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Cllr. Tiger Patel is muddying the waters for Craig Murray - he is standing as an Independent candidate, despite the public backing he received from George Galloway at the local elections.

Can see Tiger Patel getting most of the vote that is voting on that issue and Craig Murray getting a derisory vote.

I can't see labour losing though even if the inner blackburn areas turn out for Tiger Patel, simply because of the outer areas of Blackburn will likely turn out for Labour (they did well in those wards).

[CatholicLeft]

May 23, 2024 16:10:46 GMT thirdchill said:

May 23, 2024 10:19:00 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Cllr. Tiger Patel is muddying the waters for Craig Murray - he is standing as an Independent candidate, despite the public backing he received from George Galloway at the local elections.

Can see Tiger Patel getting most of the vote that is voting on that issue and Craig Murray getting a derisory vote.

I can't see labour losing though even if the inner blackburn areas turn out for Tiger Patel, simply because of the outer areas of Blackburn will likely turn out for Labour (they did well in those wards).

Not so sure about that, Tiger stood quite separately from the other "Gaza Independents" and they have already declared for Colin Murray, so could get a bit messy. George Galloway is sure to be stomping about for him

[East Anglian Lefty]

May 23, 2024 12:33:45 GMT Merseymike said:

Pendle and Clitheroe, and Rochdale, could be interesting.

The Workers Party did considerably worse in Rochdale than Gaza Indepedents did elsewhere in Lancashire.

[Merseymike]

May 23, 2024 19:51:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

May 23, 2024 12:33:45 GMT Merseymike said:

Pendle and Clitheroe, and Rochdale, could be interesting.

The Workers Party did considerably worse in Rochdale than Gaza Indepedents did elsewhere in Lancashire.

That's true. I suppose it's about Galloway?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Local elections are decided by those who are motivated enough to vote. In local elections, supporters of the Gaza Independents were very motivated, whereas other bits of the normal Labour vote were not especially. Whereas Galloway motivates both supporters and opponents, so I suspect that the results there are probably a bit more like what you'd expect in general election conditions than results elsewhere.

[iain]

blackburn-darwen.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Statement-of-Persons-Nominated-Notice-of-Poll-and-Situation-of-Polling-Stations-UKGPE.pdf

9 candidates: 5 main parties, Workers Party, 3 Independents

[ideal4radio]

With 3 Independents of South Asian heritage, and the Worker's Party standing, it will be interesting to see what effect these candidates have on the Labour vote ...

Kate Hollern had a 18,304 majority on a dreadful night for Labour in 2019, so she'll win, but with a markedly reduced vote share. I suspect the South Asian/Muslim vote, which makes up around 30% of the electorate will be split.

[CatholicLeft]

This is funny:

x.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1799095860896088331

[Tony Otim]

Jun 8, 2024 13:20:08 GMT ideal4radio said:

With 3 Independents of South Asian heritage, and the Worker's Party standing, it will be interesting to see what effect these candidates have on the Labour vote ...

Kate Hollern had a 18,304 majority on a dreadful night for Labour in 2019, so she'll win, but with a markedly reduced vote share. I suspect the South Asian/Muslim vote, which makes up around 30% of the electorate will be split.

I suspect the number of votes that Labour will leak would be roughly the same with 4 candidates than it would have been with 2 (with just Murray it might have been rather less), but those votes will now be split 4 ways, which probably actually helps Labour...

[Defenestrated Fipplebox]

Jun 8, 2024 13:53:26 GMT CatholicLeft said:

This is funny:

[CatholicLeft]

Just received,  from a parishioner on Audley Range, the Labour and WP election leaflets she had put through her door.
Kate Hollern's is all about local and national issues.
Craig Murray's is all about Gaza, the lady who gave them to me asked "How does he expect the votes of people who are worried about local issues with this sort of pamphlet?"
Well, he doesn't expect to.
We have received nothing from him on Highercroft, nor do I expect that we will.

[stb12]

Jun 10, 2024 14:42:21 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Just received,  from a parishioner on Audley Range, the Labour and WP election leaflets she had put through her door.
Kate Hollern's is all about local and national issues.
Craig Murray's is all about Gaza, the lady who gave them to me asked "How does he expect the votes of people who are worried about local issues with this sort of pamphlet?"
Well, he doesn't expect to.
We have received nothing from him on Highercroft, nor do I expect that we will.

Did you ever respond to his invite to meet?

[CatholicLeft]

Jun 10, 2024 14:45:59 GMT stb12 said:

Jun 10, 2024 14:42:21 GMT CatholicLeft said:

Just received,  from a parishioner on Audley Range, the Labour and WP election leaflets she had put through her door.
Kate Hollern's is all about local and national issues.
Craig Murray's is all about Gaza, the lady who gave them to me asked "How does he expect the votes of people who are worried about local issues with this sort of pamphlet?"
Well, he doesn't expect to.
We have received nothing from him on Highercroft, nor do I expect that we will.

Did you ever respond to his invite to meet?

I am slightly concerned that I might get dragged into a set-up situation. I am contemplating how to go about it.