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Post by carlton43 on Jun 24, 2024 8:14:19 GMT
Did not expect you of all people to make that joke. Lol Many of us have a kink in our amour propre! |
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Post by batman on Jun 24, 2024 9:12:22 GMT
What?! Quite aside from how outdated that view is, she doesn't have a female sounding name at all. 10/1 are good odds for the independent here. I just put a bet on. Since when has Heather not been a female name? well there is Gary Heather in Islington North CLP  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 9:17:05 GMT
Even though Labour have selected an Asian the fact that she is female is a distinction disadvantage in this seat. You may be right. In Pakistan, my father-in-law makes all the decisions - they all voted for ex-PTI independents in February and my mother-in-law (smart woman) says that where her husband goes, she follows. Obviously the Pakistanis in Pakistan are going to have more misogyny and internalised misogyny, but still. I suspect a lot of male heads of households here decide how the entire family votes (I can't prove that though) and fill in PVs accordingly, although I'm not alleging anything here. 10/1 are good odds for Iqbal here, and I think he'll bowl out Labour. Here's my prediction for this seat: IND 37 LAB 26 CON 25 REF 8 LD 2 OTH 2 Tories are *not* getting 25% here. This could actually be one of the few seats where a significant number tactically vote Labour - preferring even that to being lumbered with a single issue, single community Independent for the next 4-5 years. This isn't Islington North where even quite a few Tories might grudgingly respect Corbyn and think he has been somewhat hard done by, or Rochdale where a non-negligible number of white voters will support Galloway (as in most of his elections since he left Labour) |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 24, 2024 11:01:20 GMT
You may be right. In Pakistan, my father-in-law makes all the decisions - they all voted for ex-PTI independents in February and my mother-in-law (smart woman) says that where her husband goes, she follows. Obviously the Pakistanis in Pakistan are going to have more misogyny and internalised misogyny, but still. I suspect a lot of male heads of households here decide how the entire family votes (I can't prove that though) and fill in PVs accordingly, although I'm not alleging anything here. 10/1 are good odds for Iqbal here, and I think he'll bowl out Labour. Here's my prediction for this seat: IND 37 LAB 26 CON 25 REF 8 LD 2 OTH 2 Tories are *not* getting 25% here. This could actually be one of the few seats where a significant number tactically vote Labour - preferring even that to being lumbered with a single issue, single community Independent for the next 4-5 years. This isn't Islington North where even quite a few Tories might grudgingly respect Corbyn and think he has been somewhat hard done by, or Rochdale where a non-negligible number of white voters will support Galloway (as in most of his elections since he left Labour) 25% vote share for the Tories would indicate a very good night. Mark Eastwood is a Dewsbury lad and opted to have a go at the new Ossett & Denby Dale seat instead... which speaks volumes. This one is a bit of a booby prize. Not quite Liverpool/surrounding areas but not far off. Even in a good Tory year they're not winning this. |
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Post by bjornhattan on Jun 24, 2024 12:35:32 GMT
If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. Yes, although it depends on your meaning of 'older'. The older ones may remember the six-day war, and also have the 1967 borders as their reference point, as well as many younger Muslims. However, the scary thing is some sentiments you pick up - it took me a while to persuade my wife that Israel has a right to exist due to the brainwashing of the Pakistani education system. Even my mother-in-law in Karachi, an accomplished doctor, believes "the Jews are the cursed people". I agree the older generation is less likely to be keyboard warriors, but if educated in their countries of birth rather than the UK, the anti-semitism still runs deep. If they came to the UK as infants in the 60s or 70s, they're likely less 'always on' about the issue due to a more secular education (I know there are faith schools). I would love a map of Muslim-heavy seats by largest cohort, e.g. Gen X, Millennials, etc. I would guess most London seats would have the millennial or Gen Z Muslims as the biggest bloc - I suspect Ilford North, which has only recently become a plurality (for now) Muslim area, would be mostly Gen Z or Millennial. I'd guess here is more Gen X because they're the grandchildren of the Silent Generation who came here for work in the 50s and 60s. British Pathe did some really rather wonderful videos about the first wave of migrants to these places in the 60s, IIRC. I think a lot of younger Muslims would vote Lib Dem over this like the Millennial generation did over the Iraq War, but tuition fees still makes the Lib Dems toxic for a fair few Millennials and Gen Z voters. My wife is undecided between the Greens and Lib Dems and may vote for the latter because she believes they can boot Labour out in Hampstead & Highgate this time (it's certainly a view), but her family paid her tuition fees otherwise she would not touch the Lib Dems with a bargepole. The map by largest cohort isn't neccessarily all that informative - the age profile of the Muslim community is surpsingly uniform across the country. For example, in this seat 11.4% of adults are young Muslims (aged 18-30), 9.7% are Muslims in their thirties, 8.5% are Muslims in their forties, and 9.6% are older Muslims (aged over 50). If the age profile of these Muslims were changed to perfectly match the national age profile, those figures would change to (respectively) 11.1%, 10.1%, 8.7%, and 9.3%. That said I have produced some maps of median age (of Muslim adults) by constituency. I focused on seats that could reasonably considered Muslim-heavy, setting a 10% threshold (in practice quite a few of these, especially in London, are far more influenced by other communities, but I wanted to capture every seat with a significant Muslim contingent). These should blow up to show the whole areas if you click on them - I've had some issues with getting them to display properly as they are quite large:     (Note: eight constituencies exceed the 10% threshold but are not visible on these maps because they don't fit easily into any of the given regions. I didn't think a national map was very important as nearly all of the land area would just be grey, so I'll just give you the figures for these: 35 - Cardiff South and Penarth 36 - Newcastle Central and West 37 - Oxford East, Middlesbrough and Thornaby East 38 - Bedford, both Lutons, Bristol East)
What these maps show is that your intuition (which isn't unreasonable) is actually wrong. The average age of Muslim adults is generally higher in London than elsewhere, albeit only by a couple of years. In Ilford North, for example, 27% of Muslim adults are aged over 50 - here that figure is 24% and in Bradford it ranges from 19% to 23% across the three seats. Probably the biggest trend that is visible is a divide between city centres with a significant student presence, versus areas which are more suburban and where Muslims will tend to either be owner occupiers or live in socially rented housing.
I suspect the real conclusion here is that I wouldn't expect these generational divides to be a huge factor - generally most seats with a large Muslim community have a mix of all generations present.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 12:41:16 GMT
Yes, although it depends on your meaning of 'older'. The older ones may remember the six-day war, and also have the 1967 borders as their reference point, as well as many younger Muslims. However, the scary thing is some sentiments you pick up - it took me a while to persuade my wife that Israel has a right to exist due to the brainwashing of the Pakistani education system. Even my mother-in-law in Karachi, an accomplished doctor, believes "the Jews are the cursed people". I agree the older generation is less likely to be keyboard warriors, but if educated in their countries of birth rather than the UK, the anti-semitism still runs deep. If they came to the UK as infants in the 60s or 70s, they're likely less 'always on' about the issue due to a more secular education (I know there are faith schools). I would love a map of Muslim-heavy seats by largest cohort, e.g. Gen X, Millennials, etc. I would guess most London seats would have the millennial or Gen Z Muslims as the biggest bloc - I suspect Ilford North, which has only recently become a plurality (for now) Muslim area, would be mostly Gen Z or Millennial. I'd guess here is more Gen X because they're the grandchildren of the Silent Generation who came here for work in the 50s and 60s. British Pathe did some really rather wonderful videos about the first wave of migrants to these places in the 60s, IIRC. I think a lot of younger Muslims would vote Lib Dem over this like the Millennial generation did over the Iraq War, but tuition fees still makes the Lib Dems toxic for a fair few Millennials and Gen Z voters. My wife is undecided between the Greens and Lib Dems and may vote for the latter because she believes they can boot Labour out in Hampstead & Highgate this time (it's certainly a view), but her family paid her tuition fees otherwise she would not touch the Lib Dems with a bargepole. The map by largest cohort isn't neccessarily all that informative - the age profile of the Muslim community is surpsingly uniform across the country. For example, in this seat 11.4% of adults are young Muslims (aged 18-30), 9.7% are Muslims in their thirties, 8.5% are Muslims in their forties, and 9.6% are older Muslims (aged over 50). If the age profile of these Muslims were changed to perfectly match the national age profile, those figures would change to (respectively) 11.1%, 10.1%, 8.7%, and 9.3%. That said I have produced some maps of median age (of Muslim adults) by constituency. I focused on seats that could reasonably considered Muslim-heavy, setting a 10% threshold (in practice quite a few of these, especially in London, are far more influenced by other communities, but I wanted to capture every seat with a significant Muslim contingent). These should blow up to show the whole areas if you click on them - I've had some issues with getting them to display properly as they are quite large: (Note: eight constituencies exceed the 10% threshold but are not visible on these maps because they don't fit easily into any of the given regions. I didn't think a national map was very important as nearly all of the land area would just be grey, so I'll just give you the figures for these: 35 - Cardiff South and Penarth 36 - Newcastle Central and West 37 - Oxford East, Middlesbrough and Thornaby East 38 - Bedford, both Lutons, Bristol East)
What these maps show is that your intuition (which isn't unreasonable) is actually wrong. The average age of Muslim adults is generally higher in London than elsewhere, albeit only by a couple of years. In Ilford North, for example, 27% of Muslim adults are aged over 50 - here that figure is 24% and in Bradford it ranges from 19% to 23% across the three seats. Probably the biggest trend that is visible is a divide between city centres with a significant student presence, versus areas which are more suburban and where Muslims will tend to either be owner occupiers or live in socially rented housing.
I suspect the real conclusion here is that I wouldn't expect these generational divides to be a huge factor - generally most seats with a large Muslim community have a mix of all generations present.
Excellent. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jun 28, 2024 21:14:26 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 1:29:50 GMT
I think the 44% Muslim population along with how well the Workers' Party did in Batley in the 2021 by-election will help Iqbal across the line here. Shahid Malik also did somewhat well as an independent in Dewsbury in 2010. I have a flutter on this seat and it's probably the strongest for an independent gain after Islington North. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 29, 2024 10:31:44 GMT
I think the 44% Muslim population along with how well the Workers' Party did in Batley in the 2021 by-election will help Iqbal across the line here. Shahid Malik also did somewhat well as an independent in Dewsbury in 2010. I have a flutter on this seat and it's probably the strongest for an independent gain after Islington North. What?? He was the defeated Labour candidate then, and I can find no record of him standing as an Independent subsequently. And (this is a more general point in these sorts of seats) what does a "44% Muslim population" actually mean in voting terms? Given how that demographic skews younger than average, a significant part of that will be under age (or otherwise ineligible to vote) |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 29, 2024 15:01:30 GMT
William Hill have now cut the odds for an Independent win to 11/4.
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Post by borisminor on Jun 29, 2024 20:22:12 GMT
I think the 44% Muslim population along with how well the Workers' Party did in Batley in the 2021 by-election will help Iqbal across the line here. Shahid Malik also did somewhat well as an independent in Dewsbury in 2010. I have a flutter on this seat and it's probably the strongest for an independent gain after Islington North. It would have been rather odd for a Government minister to run against his own party. There was an Independent here (Khizar Iqbal) who was an ex Conservative and went to rejoin the party again after. I don't think it was in anyway similar to the Gaza Independents seen in 2024. If you want to analyse the 2010 result the BNP performance is worth noting as to why an Independent candidate might not perform as well as other areas. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 29, 2024 21:31:19 GMT
I think the 44% Muslim population along with how well the Workers' Party did in Batley in the 2021 by-election will help Iqbal across the line here. Shahid Malik also did somewhat well as an independent in Dewsbury in 2010. I have a flutter on this seat and it's probably the strongest for an independent gain after Islington North. What?? He was the defeated Labour candidate then, and I can find no record of him standing as an Independent subsequently. Yes. Wet brain on my part. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jun 30, 2024 7:25:20 GMT
And (this is a more general point in these sorts of seats) what does a "44% Muslim population" actually mean in voting terms? Given how that demographic skews younger than average, a significant part of that will be under age (or otherwise ineligible to vote) It depends on turnout levels of course, which are also hard to predict, but yes the actual Muslim share of the electorate is probably a bit less than 44%. But how much does he actually need to win? I don't particularly trust MRP etc. forecasts for this seat, but you can imagine that Reform, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens might get about 30% between them, which would put the winning line at about 35%. Mohamed might get some disaffected non-Muslim vote as well; if you look at his campaign videos not everyone is Asian and he doesn't actually seem to focus that much on Gaza. (Please note: I am not saying he is going to win. I think you need to be on the ground to tell how this sort of campaign is really going, and I'm not. I won't be that surprised if he does, but I also won't be that surprised if he gets about 10%.) |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 30, 2024 8:36:26 GMT
And (this is a more general point in these sorts of seats) what does a "44% Muslim population" actually mean in voting terms? Given how that demographic skews younger than average, a significant part of that will be under age (or otherwise ineligible to vote) It depends on turnout levels of course, which are also hard to predict, but yes the actual Muslim share of the electorate is probably a bit less than 44%. But how much does he actually need to win? I don't particularly trust MRP etc. forecasts for this seat, but you can imagine that Reform, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens might get about 30% between them, which would put the winning line at about 35%. Mohamed might get some disaffected non-Muslim vote as well; if you look at his campaign videos not everyone is Asian and he doesn't actually seem to focus that much on Gaza. (Please note: I am not saying he is going to win. I think you need to be on the ground to tell how this sort of campaign is really going, and I'm not. I won't be that surprised if he does, but I also won't be that surprised if he gets about 10%.) Looking at his twitter feed he was campaigning in Chickenley the other day which is a large predominantly white council estate . |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,009
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 30, 2024 8:59:22 GMT
And (this is a more general point in these sorts of seats) what does a "44% Muslim population" actually mean in voting terms? Given how that demographic skews younger than average, a significant part of that will be under age (or otherwise ineligible to vote) It depends on turnout levels of course, which are also hard to predict, but yes the actual Muslim share of the electorate is probably a bit less than 44%. But how much does he actually need to win? I don't particularly trust MRP etc. forecasts for this seat, but you can imagine that Reform, Tories, Lib Dems and Greens might get about 30% between them, which would put the winning line at about 35%. Mohamed might get some disaffected non-Muslim vote as well; if you look at his campaign videos not everyone is Asian and he doesn't actually seem to focus that much on Gaza. (Please note: I am not saying he is going to win. I think you need to be on the ground to tell how this sort of campaign is really going, and I'm not. I won't be that surprised if he does, but I also won't be that surprised if he gets about 10%.) Though if it is generally seen as a Labour v Indy contest, you can see that figure being a bit less. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 9:01:11 GMT
Labour are Dew a good hiding in this seat after Galloway's outfit took over 20% of the vote in Batley & Spen in 2021. This has been a long time coming to be honest.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 3, 2024 13:40:36 GMT
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 3, 2024 14:37:01 GMT
care to,explain? I just get an offer to get a gmail account |
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 3, 2024 15:41:00 GMT
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,915
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Post by YL on Jul 5, 2024 3:28:11 GMT
The Independent is going to win here, apparently. No great surprise given results elsewhere.
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