Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2024 9:59:47 GMT
I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain. There’s an interesting dynamic in seats like this, particularly with the Tory vote struggling to hold up. What do normally Tory voters do when they see the likely choice as being between Labour and someone seemingly entirely focused on the sympathies of one part of a community and the issue that they care about (regardless of the inability of any MP to do anything much about it)? Of course most will vote for their party regardless (or in the hope of a Labour defeat) but I would guess that some might wish for a local MP with a more balanced agenda? It depends. For example, Ammar Anwar is not just about the Palestinians. The two Dewsbury West councillors work together - Cllr Bramwell is particularly involved with poverty and foodbanks. The ward is a mixture of Muslim and white people - it's very much a left-behind area. Cllr Bramwell got a huge vote in May. Kirkburton is the only Tory ward in the constituency. Greens do quite well, but came third. 43(Con), 28(Lab), 23(Green). |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 2, 2024 10:00:03 GMT
Speaking to a mate of my last night who is a Labour election agent Labour are seriously worried about losing to the Independent I notice from the psephology section that Dewsbury & Batley is 44% Muslim, but that is only the 8th position on the list of most-Muslim constituencies. Which would imply that WPB or Muslim Independent candidates could theoretically pose a similar threat in a large handful of other similar Labour constituencies, not just this one. Except of course that they haven’t had recent by-elections with Galloway standing There are a few reasons why I think this is a bit higher up the danger list: - the state of the local party - the lack of a Labour incumbent, and the fact that the Labour candidate was a last minute "parachute" - a feeling that, in spite of the last two posts, the non-Muslim vote here is likely to be a bit weaker for Labour than in say the Bradford or Birmingham constituencies |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2024 10:06:25 GMT
There's a difference between low turnout local elections (but with one motivated element displaying disproprtionately high turnout) and a general election when far more normal people turn out to vote. I've no doubt there will be a substantial challenge from the Independent here and in one or two other seats, but I'd hardly see it as a certainty that it is lost. if Labour were in government and unpopular, sure. But I have a real problem with with the notion that they are headed according to most polls for their biggest ever landslide and yet they are set to lose seats they currently (or notionally) hold with big majorities like this one or Bristol Central. It all reminds me a bit of 1964 where Labour lost some seats because of local issues, despite nationally surging to take power after 13 years of opposition. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 2, 2024 10:12:57 GMT
There's a difference between low turnout local elections (but with one motivated element displaying disproprtionately high turnout) and a general election when far more normal people turn out to vote. I've no doubt there will be a substantial challenge from the Independent here and in one or two other seats, but I'd hardly see it as a certainty that it is lost. if Labour were in government and unpopular, sure. But I have a real problem with with the notion that they are headed according to most polls for their biggest ever landslide and yet they are set to lose seats they currently (or notionally) hold with big majorities like this one or Bristol Central. I agree with the first two sentences, but I don't think the voting patterns in the sort of heavily Muslim communities that make up much of this seat, or indeed those of the Labour/Green swing voters of Bristol, have much in common with those of the voters who will decide the election as a whole. So both this seat and Bristol Central really could be quite decoupled from national patterns. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 2, 2024 10:13:04 GMT
The Muslim population here seems alienated and left behind. Opposition to Israel alone isn’t going to flip the the seat, but if you combine it with decades long neglect, and cultural alienation, you probably get a prime Islamic pickup opportunity.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 2, 2024 10:13:45 GMT
There's a difference between low turnout local elections (but with one motivated element displaying disproprtionately high turnout) and a general election when far more normal people turn out to vote. I've no doubt there will be a substantial challenge from the Independent here and in one or two other seats, but I'd hardly see it as a certainty that it is lost. if Labour were in government and unpopular, sure. But I have a real problem with with the notion that they are headed according to most polls for their biggest ever landslide and yet they are set to lose seats they currently (or notionally) hold with big majorities like this one or Bristol Central. It all reminds me a bit of 1964 where Labour lost some seats because of local issues, despite nationally surging to take power after 13 years of opposition. Not really. Labour won a small majority in 1964 on a swing in their favour of 3% while the seats they lost then were (with the exception of Smethwick) all seats where a tiny Labour majority in 1959 was replaced with a tiny Conservative majority - in other words a small swing against the tide of a fairly small swing the other way. Here we are talking about seats where Labour have (notionally) large five figure majorities (and it isn't even the second palced party who are being discussed as possible winners) and in a national context where Labour's vote share is set to increase by 12-15%. The only comparable situation as already mentioned elsewhere, is the Communists gaining Mile End in 1945. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 2, 2024 10:21:56 GMT
It all reminds me a bit of 1964 where Labour lost some seats because of local issues, despite nationally surging to take power after 13 years of opposition. Not really. Labour won a small majority in 1964 on a swing in their favour of 3% while the seats they lost then were (with the exception of Smethwick) all seats where a tiny Labour majority in 1959 was replaced with a tiny Conservative majority - in other words a small swing against the tide of a fairly small swing the other way. Here we are talking about seats where Labour have (notionally) large five figure majorities (and it isn't even the second palced party who are being discussed as possible winners) and in a national context where Labour's vote share is set to increase by 12-15%. The only comparable situation as already mentioned elsewhere, is the Communists gaining Mile End in 1945. Of course the seats weren't actually lost (though in both case they eventually were, to George Galloway) but there are also the swings against the trend in 1997 in Bradford West and Bethnal Green & Bow. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 2, 2024 10:23:58 GMT
The Muslim population here seems alienated and left behind. Opposition to Israel alone isn’t going to flip the the seat, but if you combine it with decades long neglect, and cultural alienation, you probably get a prime Islamic pickup opportunity. It's not "Islamic". Dewsbury was a marginal and the Labour party didn't win in 2019. Some of those Muslim voters voted Tory. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 2, 2024 10:29:52 GMT
The Muslim population here seems alienated and left behind. Opposition to Israel alone isn’t going to flip the the seat, but if you combine it with decades long neglect, and cultural alienation, you probably get a prime Islamic pickup opportunity. It's not "Islamic". Dewsbury was a marginal and the Labour party didn't win in 2019. Some of those Muslim voters voted Tory. Labour won the Batley&Dewsbury by a landslide. The Tories were competitive because of Spen Valley, and the non-Dewsbury parts of Dewsbury. I used the word Islamic (and not Muslim or Islamist) because if I used ‘Muslim’ then it would have lumped WP style candidates with regular Muslim candidates, and if I used ‘Islamist’ then it would have lumped them with actual terrorists. As such, Islamic (not terrorists, and not candidates that just happen to be Muslim) seemed like the appropriate choice. |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 2, 2024 10:30:34 GMT
Kirkburton is the only Tory ward in the constituency. Greens do quite well, but came third. 43(Con), 28(Lab), 23(Green). Only a small part of Kirkburton ward is in this constituency. In the figures used for the boundary review, the part of the ward included here had 2875 electors and the rest, with 9684 electors, is in Ossett & Denby Dale. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2024 10:41:04 GMT
Not really. Labour won a small majority in 1964 on a swing in their favour of 3% while the seats they lost then were (with the exception of Smethwick) all seats where a tiny Labour majority in 1959 was replaced with a tiny Conservative majority - in other words a small swing against the tide of a fairly small swing the other way. Here we are talking about seats where Labour have (notionally) large five figure majorities (and it isn't even the second palced party who are being discussed as possible winners) and in a national context where Labour's vote share is set to increase by 12-15%. The only comparable situation as already mentioned elsewhere, is the Communists gaining Mile End in 1945. Of course the seats weren't actually lost (though in both case they eventually were, to George Galloway) but there are also the swings against the trend in 1997 in Bradford West and Bethnal Green & Bow. Glasgow Govan also swung against Labour in 1997 and had gone to the SNP in 1973 and 1988. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2024 11:42:27 GMT
I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain. There’s an interesting dynamic in seats like this, particularly with the Tory vote struggling to hold up. What do normally Tory voters do when they see the likely choice as being between Labour and someone seemingly entirely focused on the sympathies of one part of a community and the issue that they care about (regardless of the inability of any MP to do anything much about it)? Of course most will vote for their party regardless (or in the hope of a Labour defeat) but I would guess that some might wish for a local MP with a more balanced agenda? They vote Conservative of course. What else? |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 2, 2024 11:51:05 GMT
I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain. There’s an interesting dynamic in seats like this, particularly with the Tory vote struggling to hold up. What do normally Tory voters do when they see the likely choice as being between Labour and someone seemingly entirely focused on the sympathies of one part of a community and the issue that they care about (regardless of the inability of any MP to do anything much about it)? Of course most will vote for their party regardless (or in the hope of a Labour defeat) but I would guess that some might wish for a local MP with a more balanced agenda? Look at Edinburgh South in this context. A fair number of natural Conservative voters opt to vote Labour to keep the SNP out. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 2, 2024 12:15:14 GMT
There's a difference between low turnout local elections (but with one motivated element displaying disproprtionately high turnout) and a general election when far more normal people turn out to vote. I've no doubt there will be a substantial challenge from the Independent here and in one or two other seats, but I'd hardly see it as a certainty that it is lost. if Labour were in government and unpopular, sure. But I have a real problem with with the notion that they are headed according to most polls for their biggest ever landslide and yet they are set to lose seats they currently (or notionally) hold with big majorities like this one or Bristol Central. If you look at the one ward that didn’t have an independent candidate turnout was 28% whereas in the other 4 wards where there was turnout was 38% - 41% |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jun 2, 2024 17:52:31 GMT
Of course the seats weren't actually lost (though in both case they eventually were, to George Galloway) but there are also the swings against the trend in 1997 in Bradford West and Bethnal Green & Bow. Glasgow Govan also swung against Labour in 1997 and had gone to the SNP in 1973 and 1988. Whatever happened to the SNP candidate in Govan from 1997, I wonder?  |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 3, 2024 17:02:44 GMT
The YouGov MRP doesn't suggest Labour are in any trouble here, or in similarly Muslim seats, though I don't know whether its methodology was able to pick it up. (Did they ask about the independents, for example?)
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 4, 2024 11:43:52 GMT
The only comparable situation as already mentioned elsewhere, is the Communists gaining Mile End in 1945 Labour also lost Carmarthen to the Liberals in 1945, on a decent sized swing since the 1935 election too. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2024 11:44:49 GMT
The YouGov MRP doesn't suggest Labour are in any trouble here, or in similarly Muslim seats, though I don't know whether its methodology was able to pick it up. (Did they ask about the independents, for example?) Might they be underweighting the fringe candidates? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 4, 2024 11:47:02 GMT
Yes, wouldn't trust even generally good MRP models too much in cases like this.
There's a good chance that if the Muslim-related Indies don't win here, then they won't win anywhere.
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 4, 2024 11:56:36 GMT
The only comparable situation as already mentioned elsewhere, is the Communists gaining Mile End in 1945 Labour also lost Carmarthen to the Liberals in 1945, on a decent sized swing since the 1935 election too. In that case the Tories didn't stand in 1945 and almost their entire vote went over to the Liberal candidate. |
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