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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 23, 2024 11:11:42 GMT
I can't find that constituency on William Hill's website (nor many others at all) - is it just available in their betting shops? Bet365 has the Independent on 5/1. I'd consider 14/1 to be a very good value bet
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:15:15 GMT
This is probably the one seat where I'd like to have a poll with the Gaza Indi as an option. This one, Ladywood, Bradford West, Ilford North, and I'm sure there are other heavily Muslim seats I've forgotten. The Tower Hamlets seats might be interesting. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 23, 2024 11:39:58 GMT
The percentage of the electorate that is Muslim is wildly divergent across those constituencies as is the composition of the part of that electorate that is (in ethnic terms, but also in quite a few other respects) - and the latter is really important in determining voting behaviour.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 23, 2024 11:41:44 GMT
The percentage of the electorate that is Muslim is wildly divergent across those constituencies as is the composition of the part of that electorate that is (in ethnic terms, but also in quite a few other respects) - and the latter is really important in determining voting behaviour. Muslims are also not a monolith, a lower-middle class Muslim from Ilford has different priorities from an unemployed Muslim in Dewsbury. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:42:14 GMT
True. I was talking to a Bangladeshi taxi driver who had a very strong dislike of Israel and he's staying home rather than voting for the Workers Party in Bedford.
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Post by rcronald on Jun 23, 2024 11:44:15 GMT
True. I was talking to a Bangladeshi taxi driver who had a very strong dislike of Israel and he's staying home rather than voting for the Workers Party in Bedford. Galloway wasn’t wrong when he said that Bradford is a ‘Zionist free zone’ |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:45:46 GMT
The percentage of the electorate that is Muslim is wildly divergent across those constituencies as is the composition of the part of that electorate that is (in ethnic terms, but also in quite a few other respects) - and the latter is really important in determining voting behaviour. Muslims are also not a monolith, a lower-middle class Muslim from Ilford has different priorities from an unemployed Muslim in Dewsbury. Yes, although the independent candidate in Ilford North is herself a lower middle-class Muslim from Ilford. You can't discount entirely identity politics. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 23, 2024 11:48:17 GMT
Muslims are also not a monolith, a lower-middle class Muslim from Ilford has different priorities from an unemployed Muslim in Dewsbury. Yes, although the independent candidate in Ilford North is herself a lower middle-class Muslim from Ilford. You can't discount entirely identity politics. I can’t, but they are less likely to follow the candidate like sheep as unemployed and completely unassimilated Muslims in Yorkshire. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 11:51:44 GMT
Yes, although the independent candidate in Ilford North is herself a lower middle-class Muslim from Ilford. You can't discount entirely identity politics. I can’t, but they are less likely to follow the candidate like sheep as unemployed and completely unassimilated Muslims in Yorkshire. Perhaps, although my understanding is that Muslims tend to have higher unemployment rates across the country not just in depressing ex mill towns. There seems to be an assumption someone's made somewhere that Gaza is a socioeconomic issue - it's not, and even degree educated Muslims working full-time I know in London seats with negligible Muslim populations are seeing the entire election through the lens of Middle East issues. I think some people are going to get a bit of a surprise on July 4th. Gaza is a Muslim issue, rather than a working-class Muslim or unemployed Muslim issue. However, it's not why I'd welcome Wes Streeting's defeat in Ilford. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 23, 2024 12:11:29 GMT
I can’t, but they are less likely to follow the candidate like sheep as unemployed and completely unassimilated Muslims in Yorkshire. Perhaps, although my understanding is that Muslims tend to have higher unemployment rates across the country not just in depressing ex mill towns. There seems to be an assumption someone's made somewhere that Gaza is a socioeconomic issue - it's not, and even degree educated Muslims working full-time I know in London seats with negligible Muslim populations are seeing the entire election through the lens of Middle East issues. I think some people are going to get a bit of a surprise on July 4th. Gaza is a Muslim issue, rather than a working-class Muslim or unemployed Muslim issue. However, it's not why I'd welcome Wes Streeting's defeat in Ilford. I didn’t say that it wasn’t a Muslim issue, I just said poor Muslims are more likely to defect en-masse than middle class or working class Muslims because of class. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:12:57 GMT
Perhaps, although my understanding is that Muslims tend to have higher unemployment rates across the country not just in depressing ex mill towns. There seems to be an assumption someone's made somewhere that Gaza is a socioeconomic issue - it's not, and even degree educated Muslims working full-time I know in London seats with negligible Muslim populations are seeing the entire election through the lens of Middle East issues. I think some people are going to get a bit of a surprise on July 4th. Gaza is a Muslim issue, rather than a working-class Muslim or unemployed Muslim issue. However, it's not why I'd welcome Wes Streeting's defeat in Ilford. I didn’t say that it wasn’t a Muslim issue, I just said poor Muslims are more likely to defect en-masse than middle class or working class Muslims because of class. For sure, but for a lot of people at the other end of the social scale it's your classic post-material concern. My wife voted for Khan but can't vote Labour in the GE. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 23, 2024 12:15:31 GMT
I didn’t say that it wasn’t a Muslim issue, I just said poor Muslims are more likely to defect en-masse than middle class or working class Muslims because of class. For sure, but for a lot of people at the other end of the social scale it's your classic post-material concern. My wife voted for Khan but can't vote Labour in the GE. Yes, but Ilford isn’t a BoBo area. It’s not poor enough for a herd style defection, and it’s not affluent enough for the residents to view things in post-materialist lens. Btw, you and your wife are voting Green, right? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:16:37 GMT
For sure, but for a lot of people at the other end of the social scale it's your classic post-material concern. My wife voted for Khan but can't vote Labour in the GE. Yes, but Ilford isn’t a BoBo area. It’s not poor enough for a herd style defection, and it’s not affluent enough for the residents to view things in post-materialist lens. Interesting, although there might be enough group think for something unexpected to happen. Many people will still vote with that issue first and foremost there. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 23, 2024 13:29:08 GMT
William Hill have cut Mohammed’s odds to 5/1
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Post by redwombat on Jun 23, 2024 13:38:34 GMT
Still 10/1 with Corals.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 23, 2024 16:54:27 GMT
I can't find that constituency on William Hill's website (nor many others at all) - is it just available in their betting shops? Bet365 has the Independent on 5/1. I'd consider 14/1 to be a very good value bet I have put my bets on in their shop. |
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Post by batman on Jun 23, 2024 21:45:41 GMT
I still think that, if Labour are going to lose to a pro-Gaza independent other than Jeremy Corbyn (as opposed to the Workers' Party) anywhere, this looks the likeliest. I still incline slightly towards a Labour win but the seat does have its dangers for the party, for sure.
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Post by towerhamlets on Jun 23, 2024 22:04:38 GMT
There seems to be an assumption someone's made somewhere that Gaza is a socioeconomic issue - it's not, and even degree educated Muslims working full-time I know in London seats with negligible Muslim populations are seeing the entire election through the lens of Middle East issues. I think some people are going to get a bit of a surprise on July 4th. Gaza is a Muslim issue, rather than a working-class Muslim or unemployed Muslim issue. Yes. I can imagine why it would be comforting to believe that this is something that only the backwards care about, but my family is—to put it lightly—not exactly working class, and that certainly has not made anyone care any less about the ongoing mass murder campaign in Gaza. I have not spoken to all of my relatives (frankly, I tend to dislike talking about politics at home), but I would be surprised if any of my close relatives were voting Labour this time. This is a group of people most of whom have postgraduate degrees. |
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edgbaston
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Post by edgbaston on Jun 24, 2024 1:06:47 GMT
There seems to be an assumption someone's made somewhere that Gaza is a socioeconomic issue - it's not, and even degree educated Muslims working full-time I know in London seats with negligible Muslim populations are seeing the entire election through the lens of Middle East issues. I think some people are going to get a bit of a surprise on July 4th. Gaza is a Muslim issue, rather than a working-class Muslim or unemployed Muslim issue. Yes. I can imagine why it would be comforting to believe that this is something that only the backwards care about, but my family is—to put it lightly—not exactly working class, and that certainly has not made anyone care any less about the ongoing mass murder campaign in Gaza. I have not spoken to all of my relatives (frankly, I tend to dislike talking about politics at home), but I would be surprised if any of my close relatives were voting Labour this time. This is a group of people most of whom have postgraduate degrees. If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. |
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Post by towerhamlets on Jun 24, 2024 1:50:21 GMT
Yes. I can imagine why it would be comforting to believe that this is something that only the backwards care about, but my family is—to put it lightly—not exactly working class, and that certainly has not made anyone care any less about the ongoing mass murder campaign in Gaza. I have not spoken to all of my relatives (frankly, I tend to dislike talking about politics at home), but I would be surprised if any of my close relatives were voting Labour this time. This is a group of people most of whom have postgraduate degrees. If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. Yes, I see this on Instagram as well. Among my friends, it's not just Muslims that make these posts every day, but certainly many of them are Muslim and obviously this has special salience to Muslims. I agree also with your point about older voters being likelier to stick with Labour. This is not a matter of people voting the way that some mufti tells them to: if it were, that would probably be helpful for Labour, many of whose candidates will have community connections. People have made up their minds based on the freely available information that they see every day. (Incidentally, this is why American legislators are so keen to ban TikTok, because it shows people images that might lead them to criticize the Israeli military. This is not some conspiracy theory; politicians are happy to tell you themselves.) People who feel this way, I think we can reasonably say, have not been a primary priority of the Labour campaign. It's hard to argue with the strategy inasmuch as Labour will win one of the largest landslides in the history of the country, but it's not hard to understand why Labour's numbers are not as strong with the youngest demographic. |
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