john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Jun 24, 2024 2:06:53 GMT
You
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 2:51:47 GMT
Yes. I can imagine why it would be comforting to believe that this is something that only the backwards care about, but my family is—to put it lightly—not exactly working class, and that certainly has not made anyone care any less about the ongoing mass murder campaign in Gaza. I have not spoken to all of my relatives (frankly, I tend to dislike talking about politics at home), but I would be surprised if any of my close relatives were voting Labour this time. This is a group of people most of whom have postgraduate degrees. If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. Yes, although it depends on your meaning of 'older'. The older ones may remember the six-day war, and also have the 1967 borders as their reference point, as well as many younger Muslims. However, the scary thing is some sentiments you pick up - it took me a while to persuade my wife that Israel has a right to exist due to the brainwashing of the Pakistani education system. Even my mother-in-law in Karachi, an accomplished doctor, believes "the Jews are the cursed people". I agree the older generation is less likely to be keyboard warriors, but if educated in their countries of birth rather than the UK, the anti-semitism still runs deep. If they came to the UK as infants in the 60s or 70s, they're likely less 'always on' about the issue due to a more secular education (I know there are faith schools). I would love a map of Muslim-heavy seats by largest cohort, e.g. Gen X, Millennials, etc. I would guess most London seats would have the millennial or Gen Z Muslims as the biggest bloc - I suspect Ilford North, which has only recently become a plurality (for now) Muslim area, would be mostly Gen Z or Millennial. I'd guess here is more Gen X because they're the grandchildren of the Silent Generation who came here for work in the 50s and 60s. British Pathe did some really rather wonderful videos about the first wave of migrants to these places in the 60s, IIRC. I think a lot of younger Muslims would vote Lib Dem over this like the Millennial generation did over the Iraq War, but tuition fees still makes the Lib Dems toxic for a fair few Millennials and Gen Z voters. My wife is undecided between the Greens and Lib Dems and may vote for the latter because she believes they can boot Labour out in Hampstead & Highgate this time (it's certainly a view), but her family paid her tuition fees otherwise she would not touch the Lib Dems with a bargepole. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 4:01:53 GMT
If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. Yes, I see this on Instagram as well. Among my friends, it's not just Muslims that make these posts every day, but certainly many of them are Muslim and obviously this has special salience to Muslims. I agree also with your point about older voters being likelier to stick with Labour. This is not a matter of people voting the way that some mufti tells them to: if it were, that would probably be helpful for Labour, many of whose candidates will have community connections. People have made up their minds based on the freely available information that they see every day. (Incidentally, this is why American legislators are so keen to ban TikTok, because it shows people images that might lead them to criticize the Israeli military. This is not some conspiracy theory; politicians are happy to tell you themselves.) People who feel this way, I think we can reasonably say, have not been a primary priority of the Labour campaign. It's hard to argue with the strategy inasmuch as Labour will win one of the largest landslides in the history of the country, but it's not hard to understand why Labour's numbers are not as strong with the youngest demographic. Look, people have the right to criticise and be angry with/about Israel, but if you think that what is being shown on TikTok isn’t manipulated, spinned, cherry picked, and perhaps even false in some instances then I don’t know what to tell you… |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 4:03:45 GMT
Yes, I see this on Instagram as well. Among my friends, it's not just Muslims that make these posts every day, but certainly many of them are Muslim and obviously this has special salience to Muslims. I agree also with your point about older voters being likelier to stick with Labour. This is not a matter of people voting the way that some mufti tells them to: if it were, that would probably be helpful for Labour, many of whose candidates will have community connections. People have made up their minds based on the freely available information that they see every day. (Incidentally, this is why American legislators are so keen to ban TikTok, because it shows people images that might lead them to criticize the Israeli military. This is not some conspiracy theory; politicians are happy to tell you themselves.) People who feel this way, I think we can reasonably say, have not been a primary priority of the Labour campaign. It's hard to argue with the strategy inasmuch as Labour will win one of the largest landslides in the history of the country, but it's not hard to understand why Labour's numbers are not as strong with the youngest demographic. Look, people have the right to criticise and be angry with/about Israel, but if you think that what is being shown on TikTok isn’t manipulated, spinned, cherry picked, and perhaps even false in some instances then I've got a bridge to sell you, or a Rafah crossing if you will... |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 4:18:20 GMT
If anything it’s older first gen Muslims, not on social media, that may stick with Labour in greater numbers through pure force of habit. So so many young people sincerely believe Labour is pro bombing Gaza as they’ve seen it every few days for months on TikTok. A lot of my Muslim friends from university post an Instagram reel on their ‘stories’ about the conflict almost daily. Yes, although it depends on your meaning of 'older'. The older ones may remember the six-day war, and also have the 1967 borders as their reference point, as well as many younger Muslims. However, the scary thing is some sentiments you pick up - it took me a while to persuade my wife that Israel has a right to exist due to the brainwashing of the Pakistani education system. Even my mother-in-law in Karachi, anaccomplished doctor, believes "the Jews are the cursed people". I agree the older generation is less likely to be keyboard warriors, but if educated in their countries of birth rather than the UK, the anti-semitism still runs deep. If they came to the UK as infants in the 60s or 70s, they're likely less 'always on' about the issue due to a more secular education (I know there are faith schools). I would love a map of Muslim-heavy seats by largest cohort, e.g. Gen X, Millennials, etc. I would guess most London seats would have the millennial or Gen Z Muslims as the biggest bloc - I suspect Ilford North, which has only recently become a plurality (for now) Muslim area, would be mostly Gen Z or Millennial. I'd guess here is more Gen X because they're the grandchildren of the Silent Generation who came here for work in the 50s and 60s. British Pathe did some really rather wonderful videos about the first wave of migrants to these places in the 60s, IIRC. I think a lot of younger Muslims would vote Lib Dem over this like the Millennial generation did over the Iraq War, but tuition fees still makes the Lib Dems toxic for a fair few Millennials and Gen Z voters. My wife is undecided between the Greens and Lib Dems and may vote for the latter because she believes they can boot Labour out in Hampstead & Highgate this time (it's certainly a view), but her family paid her tuition fees otherwise she would not touch the Lib Dems with a bargepole. I think that you are at least partially right, (and both you and towerhamlets know a lot more British and South Asian Muslims than I do) but I my instincts tell me that most of the Muslims who’s are going to vote against Labour are going to be either highly educated (BoBo, or Pakistani/Bangladeshi educated), or poor. Which should specifically make Ilford north safer than most of the other heavily Muslim constituencies, even if Wes Streeting is pretty bad fit for a heavily Muslim constituency. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 4:19:58 GMT
Yes, although it depends on your meaning of 'older'. The older ones may remember the six-day war, and also have the 1967 borders as their reference point, as well as many younger Muslims. However, the scary thing is some sentiments you pick up - it took me a while to persuade my wife that Israel has a right to exist due to the brainwashing of the Pakistani education system. Even my mother-in-law in Karachi, anaccomplished doctor, believes "the Jews are the cursed people". I agree the older generation is less likely to be keyboard warriors, but if educated in their countries of birth rather than the UK, the anti-semitism still runs deep. If they came to the UK as infants in the 60s or 70s, they're likely less 'always on' about the issue due to a more secular education (I know there are faith schools). I would love a map of Muslim-heavy seats by largest cohort, e.g. Gen X, Millennials, etc. I would guess most London seats would have the millennial or Gen Z Muslims as the biggest bloc - I suspect Ilford North, which has only recently become a plurality (for now) Muslim area, would be mostly Gen Z or Millennial. I'd guess here is more Gen X because they're the grandchildren of the Silent Generation who came here for work in the 50s and 60s. British Pathe did some really rather wonderful videos about the first wave of migrants to these places in the 60s, IIRC. I think a lot of younger Muslims would vote Lib Dem over this like the Millennial generation did over the Iraq War, but tuition fees still makes the Lib Dems toxic for a fair few Millennials and Gen Z voters. My wife is undecided between the Greens and Lib Dems and may vote for the latter because she believes they can boot Labour out in Hampstead & Highgate this time (it's certainly a view), but her family paid her tuition fees otherwise she would not touch the Lib Dems with a bargepole. I think that you are at least partially right, (and both you and towerhamlets know a lot more British and South Asian Muslims than I do) but I my instincts tell me that most of the Muslims who’s are going to vote against Labour are going to be either highly educated (BoBo, or Pakistani/Bangladeshi educated), or poor. Which should specifically make Ilford north safer than most of the other heavily Muslim constituencies, even if Wes Streeting is pretty bad fit for a heavily Muslim constituency. I asked my wife whether Muslims would vote for an openly gay candidate like Streeting and she said most would not consider doing so (which is a bit mad in 2024). |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 4:28:54 GMT
I think that you are at least partially right, (and both you and towerhamlets know a lot more British and South Asian Muslims than I do) but I my instincts tell me that most of the Muslims who’s are going to vote against Labour are going to be either highly educated (BoBo, or Pakistani/Bangladeshi educated), or poor. Which should specifically make Ilford north safer than most of the other heavily Muslim constituencies, even if Wes Streeting is pretty bad fit for a heavily Muslim constituency. I asked my wife whether Muslims would vote for an openly gay candidate like Streeting and she said most would not consider doing so (which is a bit mad in 2024). Considering how tight his margin of victory was in 2015, he almost certainly won because Scott was/is ‘the son of pigs and monkeys’. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 4:32:31 GMT
I asked my wife whether Muslims would vote for an openly gay candidate like Streeting and she said most would not consider doing so (which is a bit mad in 2024). Considering how tight his margin of victory was in 2015, he almost certainly won because Scott was/is ‘the son of pigs and monkeys’. I have heard that, and it'd be depressingly ironic if, having (in my view) won in 2015 due to that, he lost to Leanne because of his LGBT credentials. I'm guessing the Gen Z Muslims moving into Redbridge are less homophobic than the previous generations, but if the antisemitism is alive and kicking, then you have to wonder. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 4:48:29 GMT
Considering how tight his margin of victory was in 2015, he almost certainly won because Scott was/is ‘the son of pigs and monkeys’. I have heard that, and it'd be depressingly ironic if, having (in my view) won in 2015 due to that, he lost to Leanne because of his LGBT credentials. I'm guessing the Gen Z Muslims moving into Redbridge are less homophobic than the previous generations, but if the antisemitism is alive and kicking, then you have to wonder. Aren’t Zoomers too young for us (I guess I’m the oldest Zoomer as I was born in 1996) to move to a constituency like Ilford North? It should be mostly Gen-Xers and Millennials. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 4:52:43 GMT
I have heard that, and it'd be depressingly ironic if, having (in my view) won in 2015 due to that, he lost to Leanne because of his LGBT credentials. I'm guessing the Gen Z Muslims moving into Redbridge are less homophobic than the previous generations, but if the antisemitism is alive and kicking, then you have to wonder. Aren’t Zoomers too young for us (I guess I’m the oldest Zoomer as I was born in 1996) to move to a constituency like Ilford North? It should be mostly Gen-Xers and Millennials. Probably a fair few renting rooms in semis out there. I know a lot of Uber drivers are British Pakistanis who live in Ilford. It used to have a lot of Jewish cabbies, IIRC. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 4:55:33 GMT
Aren’t Zoomers too young for us (I guess I’m the oldest Zoomer as I was born in 1996) to move to a constituency like Ilford North? It should be mostly Gen-Xers and Millennials. Probably a fair few renting rooms in semis out there. I know a lot of Uber drivers are British Pakistanis who live in Ilford. It used to have a lot of Jewish cabbies, IIRC. It’s always been a cabbie constituency, just changed from white brits and Jews to Pakistanis. |
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Post by towerhamlets on Jun 24, 2024 5:45:00 GMT
I think that you are at least partially right, (and both you and towerhamlets know a lot more British and South Asian Muslims than I do) but I my instincts tell me that most of the Muslims who’s are going to vote against Labour are going to be either highly educated (BoBo, or Pakistani/Bangladeshi educated), or poor. Which should specifically make Ilford north safer than most of the other heavily Muslim constituencies, even if Wes Streeting is pretty bad fit for a heavily Muslim constituency. I asked my wife whether Muslims would vote for an openly gay candidate like Streeting and she said most would not consider doing so (which is a bit mad in 2024). I won't question your wife's firsthand knowledge, but Wes Streeting was returned in Ilford North in both 2017 and 2019. Boundary changes have increased the Muslim population of the consistency, but it was meaningful before this, too. Did most Muslim voters in the constituency refuse to support the party of Jeremy Corbyn because of the local candidate's biography? I find it difficult to believe and have not seen any indication that this was the case. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 5:46:31 GMT
I asked my wife whether Muslims would vote for an openly gay candidate like Streeting and she said most would not consider doing so (which is a bit mad in 2024). I won't question your wife's firsthand knowledge, but Wes Streeting was returned in Ilford North in both 2017 and 2019. Boundary changes have increased the Muslim population of the consistency, but it was meaningful before this, too. Did most Muslim voters in the constituency refuse to support the party of Jeremy Corbyn because of the local candidate's biography? I find it difficult to believe and have not seen any indication that this was the case. Gay vs Jew 3 straight elections. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 5:49:55 GMT
I won't question your wife's firsthand knowledge, but Wes Streeting was returned in Ilford North in both 2017 and 2019. Boundary changes have increased the Muslim population of the consistency, but it was meaningful before this, too. Did most Muslim voters in the constituency refuse to support the party of Jeremy Corbyn because of the local candidate's biography? I find it difficult to believe and have not seen any indication that this was the case. Gay vs Jew 3 straight elections. Indeed, and white British LGBT Labour candidate vs British Palestinian independent is a much harder ask for Labour there (I've nothing against Streeting as a person), |
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Post by towerhamlets on Jun 24, 2024 5:55:45 GMT
I won't question your wife's firsthand knowledge, but Wes Streeting was returned in Ilford North in both 2017 and 2019. Boundary changes have increased the Muslim population of the consistency, but it was meaningful before this, too. Did most Muslim voters in the constituency refuse to support the party of Jeremy Corbyn because of the local candidate's biography? I find it difficult to believe and have not seen any indication that this was the case. Gay vs Jew 3 straight elections. This is the problem you see all the time in discussion of elections of assuming that voters are simultaneously more sophisticated and less sophisticated than they really are: more sophisticated because the expectation here is that voters had meaningful knowledge about the personal backgrounds of multiple candidates (enough people on this forum have interacted with voters to know what they are like), less sophisticated because the expectation here is that voters would let this knowledge determine their votes, as if they have no interest in policy and no understanding of how voting for a constituency MP fits into the broader picture of a nationwide election. In reality I would wager a great deal (this is a figure of speech, since I am a Muslim and would not wager anything) that Muslim voters in Ilford North mostly voted for the Labour candidate Wes Streeting for the same reason that most voters everywhere in the country cast their vote: they felt that this would be the best way to form a government that they would prefer. Muslims in fact are not so different from regular people. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 24, 2024 6:16:54 GMT
Even though Labour have selected an Asian the fact that she is female is a distinction disadvantage in this seat.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 24, 2024 6:21:00 GMT
Even though Labour have selected an Asian the fact that she is female is a distinction disadvantage in this seat. What?! Quite aside from how outdated that view is, she doesn't have a female sounding name at all. 10/1 are good odds for the independent here. I just put a bet on. Since when has Heather not been a female name? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 6:33:52 GMT
Even though Labour have selected an Asian the fact that she is female is a distinction disadvantage in this seat. You may be right. In Pakistan, my father-in-law makes all the decisions - they all voted for ex-PTI independents in February and my mother-in-law (smart woman) says that where her husband goes, she follows. Obviously the Pakistanis in Pakistan are going to have more misogyny and internalised misogyny, but still. I suspect a lot of male heads of households here decide how the entire family votes (I can't prove that though) and fill in PVs accordingly, although I'm not alleging anything here. 10/1 are good odds for Iqbal here, and I think he'll bowl out Labour. Here's my prediction for this seat: IND 37 LAB 26 CON 25 REF 8 LD 2 OTH 2 |
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 24, 2024 7:58:06 GMT
I won't question your wife's firsthand knowledge, but Wes Streeting was returned in Ilford North in both 2017 and 2019. Boundary changes have increased the Muslim population of the consistency, but it was meaningful before this, too. Did most Muslim voters in the constituency refuse to support the party of Jeremy Corbyn because of the local candidate's biography? I find it difficult to believe and have not seen any indication that this was the case. Gay vs Jew 3 straight elections. 'Straight' elections? |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 24, 2024 8:07:58 GMT
Gay vs Jew 3 straight elections. 'Straight' elections? Did not expect you of all people to make that joke. Lol |
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