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Post by Johncrane on Jun 5, 2024 17:43:43 GMT
Ammar Anwar has stated that he is going to step aside since there was another independent called Iqbal Mohamed that was running and they agreed to not spilt the independent vote.
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Post by johnloony on Jun 5, 2024 18:04:53 GMT
Ammar Anwar has stated that he is going to step aside since there was another independent called Iqbal Mohamed that was running and they agreed to not spilt the independent vote. That's a surprise, because he has been hyped up as a possible winner. Does this mean that Iqbal Mohamed is equally prominent and popular as a local Independent (elected as Labour) councillor? |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 5, 2024 18:22:19 GMT
Ammar Anwar has stated that he is going to step aside since there was another independent called Iqbal Mohamed that was running and they agreed to not spilt the independent vote. That's a surprise, because he has been hyped up as a possible winner. Does this mean that Iqbal Mohamed is equally prominent and popular as a local Independent (elected as Labour) councillor? Looking on Twitter Iqbal Mohamed is being backed by the Muslim Vote. |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 5, 2024 18:24:19 GMT
Ammar Anwar has stated that he is going to step aside since there was another independent called Iqbal Mohamed that was running and they agreed to not spilt the independent vote. That's a surprise, because he has been hyped up as a possible winner. Does this mean that Iqbal Mohamed is equally prominent and popular as a local Independent (elected as Labour) councillor? I think so - I believe it is about two community meetings and Iqbal Mohamed is very popular in Dewsbury and Batley. He has done a video... images.app.goo.gl/QwVDc5biXue6Ex2MA |
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 5, 2024 18:26:15 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2024 18:28:54 GMT
Galloway should probably have stood here instead of Rochdale for the GE. Still, it'll be good to see Paul Waugh wipe the smile of his face come election night.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 6, 2024 7:17:21 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 6, 2024 15:07:07 GMT
He has had his nomination papers accepted as an Independent . |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 7, 2024 15:47:16 GMT
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Jun 14, 2024 19:18:56 GMT
[I notice from the psephology section that Dewsbury & Batley is 44% Muslim, but that is only the 8th position on the list of most-Muslim constituencies. Which would imply that WPB or Muslim Independent candidates could theoretically pose a similar threat in a large handful of other similar Labour constituencies, not just this one. Some of them have multiple independents, of course, whereas this seat has only the one. I think this could easily be quite a close race. |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 14, 2024 19:30:20 GMT
[I notice from the psephology section that Dewsbury & Batley is 44% Muslim, but that is only the 8th position on the list of most-Muslim constituencies. Which would imply that WPB or Muslim Independent candidates could theoretically pose a similar threat in a large handful of other similar Labour constituencies, not just this one. Some of them have multiple independents, of course, whereas this seat has only the one. I think this could easily be quite a close race. My theory is that if any constituency has the psephological or demographic propensity to vote in very large numbers for an Independent candidate or WPB or similar, motivated by the Gaza issue and Labour’s policy thereon, then the vote would coalesce and concentrate on one particular candidate rather than being split between sev. It might take a few weeks of Darwinian selection before it is obvious which one that should be. |
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Post by Delighted Of Tunbridge Wells on Jun 14, 2024 22:02:35 GMT
Some of them have multiple independents, of course, whereas this seat has only the one. I think this could easily be quite a close race. My theory is that if any constituency has the psephological or demographic propensity to vote in very large numbers for an Independent candidate or WPB or similar, motivated by the Gaza issue and Labour’s policy thereon, then the vote would coalesce and concentrate on one particular candidate rather than being split between sev. It might take a few weeks of Darwinian selection before it is obvious which one that should be. It depends on the Muslim communities which live in the seat, too. The affiliation of the local mosque often provides a clue. |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 20, 2024 11:09:36 GMT
At last William Hill have provided odds for Mohammed Iqbal 14/1 . Have put a punt of £10 on him.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 20, 2024 13:14:23 GMT
Had genuinely expected their odds to be a bit lower than that.
Then again, maybe this shows that Labour are widely expected to win the seat despite last month's local elections and the councillor defections?
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 20, 2024 16:29:16 GMT
Had genuinely expected their odds to be a bit lower than that. Then again, maybe this shows that Labour are widely expected to win the seat despite last month's local elections and the councillor defections? I wouldn't expect the bookies' odds to give much indication of what is going on in this constituency. (I am sceptical of reading too much into them generally -- see Chesham & Amersham and Rochdale -- but especially here.) For what it's worth YouGov has Lab 36.3%, Reform 21.4%, Ind 15.2%, Green 11.0%, Con 8.5%, Lib Dem 7.6%, but I do wonder (cf that 7% for Galloway in Rochdale) whether their sampling isn't very representative in heavily Muslim areas. If you ask me to pick a winner I will go with Labour, but not with that much confidence, and to be honest I don't think we will get a good indication of what is really happening here until results night. |
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birkinabe
Non-Aligned
winning here
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Post by birkinabe on Jun 20, 2024 21:28:36 GMT
Reform on 21.4% alone is all I need to ignore YouGov's projection for this seat tbqh. I also agree with the general sentiment here that this is probably the most likely victory in the GE for one of the Gaza independents.
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Post by thejedi on Jun 21, 2024 20:46:35 GMT
At last William Hill have provided odds for Mohammed Iqbal 14/1 . Have put a punt of £10 on him. That mean you’re going to lose £10 then? |
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 21, 2024 22:59:05 GMT
At last William Hill have provided odds for Mohammed Iqbal 14/1 . Have put a punt of £10 on him. That mean you’re going to lose £10 then? I think you will find he has better odds of being elected than any Conservative in West Yorkshire especially in Normanton & Hemsworth. |
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Post by rcronald on Jun 22, 2024 7:06:56 GMT
This is probably the one seat where I'd like to have a poll with the Gaza Indi as an option.
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Post by markgoodair on Jun 23, 2024 10:37:09 GMT
Had a drive through Dewsbury and Batley this morning before heading up to Harrogate to help Tom Gordon . For every one Labour poster up roughly the same number as the Greens there must have been ten Mohammed (IIndependent).
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