Dewsbury and Batley

[stb12]

Dewsbury and Batley

[YL]

Almanac profile

Candidates

Simon Cope (Green)
Heather Iqbal (Lab)
Iqbal Mohamed (Ind)
Simon Rossington (Lib Dem)
Lalit Suryawanshi (Con)
Jonathan Thackray (Reform UK)

[YL]

Michael Crick reports that former Dewsbury MP Paula Sherriff is applying for the Labour selection here, as is Joseph Hayat.

I'm not sure what effect the fiasco in the Kirklees council group is likely to have, but I imagine this could be quite an unpleasant campaign. The Independent candidate Ammar Anwar is a councillor for Dewsbury West, elected as Labour in 2022.

[greenhert]

Mar 14, 2024 8:36:11 GMT YL said:

Almanac profile

Candidates

Javed Bashir (Lib Dem)
Jonathan Thackray (Reform UK)
Arshad Ali (Workers Party of Britain)
Ammar Anwar (Independent)

Would that be the same Arshad Ali who stood for Respect in Bradford West in 2010?

[YL]

The troubles in the Labour group on Kirklees council mean that Labour are now down to 4 councillors out of the 15 for wards entirely within this seat, the others all being various types of Independent. (The small part of Kirkburton ward here is represented by Tories.) Four of the Independents were elected as such in May (winning both Batley wards, Dewsbury South and Dewsbury West) and the others were elected as Labour. One of those Lab > Ind councillors is Ammar Anwar, who has announced an Independent candidacy for the General Election.

I suspect that this may be just about the most likely seat for Labour to lose to a "Gaza independent", though without more evidence that they're a serious threat in higher turnout elections I'm not sure that's saying very much.

[Merseymike]

A SpAD, works for Reeves.
I do hope that Ammar Anwar will win.

[markgoodair]

Speaking to a mate of my last night who is a Labour election agent Labour are seriously worried about losing to the Independent

[edgbaston]

Jun 1, 2024 10:00:20 GMT markgoodair said:

Speaking to a mate of my last night who is a Labour election agent Labour are seriously worried about losing to the Independent

Could the presence of the workers party make that more difficult or will they stand aside

[jakegb]

This is prime territory for Galloway and Co.
Had this seat existed in 2021 (when the by election) was called, I could have seen Galloway winning easily.
The lack of incumbent MP will also prove challenging - and selecting a Starmer loyalist is unlikely to go down too well with the electorate.

[YL]

Jun 1, 2024 10:06:44 GMT edgbaston said:

Jun 1, 2024 10:00:20 GMT markgoodair said:

Speaking to a mate of my last night who is a Labour election agent Labour are seriously worried about losing to the Independent

Could the presence of the workers party make that more difficult or will they stand aside

In fact I have just looked at the Workers Party candidate list and the previously listed candidate here has disappeared.

[johnloony]

Jun 1, 2024 10:00:20 GMT markgoodair said:

Speaking to a mate of my last night who is a Labour election agent Labour are seriously worried about losing to the Independent

I notice from the psephology section that Dewsbury & Batley is 44% Muslim, but that is only the 8th position on the list of most-Muslim constituencies. Which would imply that WPB or Muslim Independent candidates could theoretically pose a similar threat in a large handful of other similar Labour constituencies, not just this one.

Except of course that they haven’t had recent by-elections with Galloway standing

[Merseymike]

Jun 1, 2024 10:13:28 GMT jakegb said:

This is prime territory for Galloway and Co.
Had this seat existed in 2021 (when the by election) was called, I could have seen Galloway winning easily.
The lack of incumbent MP will also prove challenging - and selecting a Starmer loyalist is unlikely to go down too well with the electorate.

It won't be Galloway and Co.
The candidate is a very good councillor - he is a longstanding Labour councillor in Dewsbury. He explained why he left Labour - he is Independent.
I hope he can win

[jakegb]

Jun 1, 2024 10:36:52 GMT Merseymike said:

Jun 1, 2024 10:13:28 GMT jakegb said:

This is prime territory for Galloway and Co.
Had this seat existed in 2021 (when the by election) was called, I could have seen Galloway winning easily.
The lack of incumbent MP will also prove challenging - and selecting a Starmer loyalist is unlikely to go down too well with the electorate.

It won't be Galloway and Co.
The candidate is a very good councillor - he is a longstanding Labour councillor in Dewsbury. He explained why he left Labour - he is Independent.
I hope he can win

[jakegb]

Possibly so
I worked in W York a few years ago: Dewsbury and Batley are both left behind places, ignored by successive governments. I'd expect a strong local challenge.

[borisminor]

My instinct is this would be an Independent gain. In the by-election in Batley and Spen three years ago the consensus here was the Galloway won Batley but lost in Spen. I think that if there was not a Rochdale by-election then Galloway himself would have stood.

[markgoodair]

Adding up the results of the local elections in the constituency we come to
Independent 13387 54.5%
Labour 4489 18.2%
Conservative 2999 12.2%
Green 1898 7.7%
Liberal Democrats 1818 7.4%

[rcronald]

I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain.

[matureleft]

Jun 2, 2024 8:58:27 GMT rcronald said:

I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain.

There’s an interesting dynamic in seats like this, particularly with the Tory vote struggling to hold up. What do normally Tory voters do when they see the likely choice as being between Labour and someone seemingly entirely focused on the sympathies of one part of a community and the issue that they care about (regardless of the inability of any MP to do anything much about it)? Of course most will vote for their party regardless (or in the hope of a Labour defeat) but I would guess that some might wish for a local MP with a more balanced agenda?

[rcronald]

Jun 2, 2024 9:44:15 GMT matureleft said:

Jun 2, 2024 8:58:27 GMT rcronald said:

I strongly suspect that this is going to be an indi/WP gain.

There’s an interesting dynamic in seats like this, particularly with the Tory vote struggling to hold up. What do normally Tory voters do when they see the likely choice as being between Labour and someone seemingly entirely focused on the sympathies of one part of a community and the issue that they care about (regardless of the inability of any MP to do anything much about it)? Of course most will vote for their party regardless (or in the hope of a Labour defeat) but I would guess that some might wish for a local MP with a more balanced agenda?

I don’t know about normal voters, but I (and if I had to guess, almost all of the blue room) would vote Labour or Tory in such scenario.

[Pete Whitehead]

There's a difference between low turnout local elections (but with one motivated element displaying disproprtionately high turnout) and a general election when far more normal people turn out to vote. I've no doubt there will be a substantial challenge from the Independent here and in one or two other seats, but I'd hardly see it as a certainty that it is lost. if Labour were in government and unpopular, sure. But I have a real problem with with the notion that they are headed according to most polls for their biggest ever landslide and yet they are set to lose seats they currently (or notionally) hold with big majorities like this one or Bristol Central.