Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,679 
Member is Online
|
Post by Jack on Oct 28, 2024 18:25:00 GMT
Did his face get stuck like that when the wind changed? |
|
john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
|
Post by john07 on Oct 28, 2024 22:02:46 GMT
I'm nervous about getting ahead of ourselves. We still haven't seen a full video, and I think it's the Mail that's released the footage we've seen. I don't trust the Mail an inch, so we can safely assume we've only seen the worst of the footage, and there must be a reason that they haven't released the start of the incident, so it's likely to help Amesbury. In terms of MPs having a minder for their social lives, including at 3am, I think a few of us have slightly lost track of quite how unglamorous being an MP is most of the time - but I believe they can carry panic buttons to alert authorities if they are involved in an incident. I'm not nervous. Keir Starmer is obsessed with optics. I predict a by-election here. That confirms, to me, that there will not be one. |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Oct 29, 2024 5:02:15 GMT
Something like this if it happens:
LAB 31% (-22)
RFM 29% (+11)
CON 21% (+5)
LD 12% (+7)
GRN 5% (-2)
OTH 2%
Jonathan Ashworth gets back into Parliament.
|
|
|
|
Post by tonyhil on Oct 29, 2024 6:29:40 GMT
The LibDems would not put any effort into a Runcorn by-election and would more likely poll 2%.
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Oct 29, 2024 8:44:10 GMT
Something like this if it happens: LAB 31% (-22) RFM 29% (+11) CON 21% (+5) LD 12% (+7) GRN 5% (-2) OTH 2% Jonathan Ashworth gets back into Parliament. The Tory vote wouldn't be up, neither probably would the LDs imo. I would predict something like Lab 41%, Ref 38%, Con 12%, Grn 4%, LD 3%, Oth 2%. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2024 11:32:28 GMT
Something like this if it happens: LAB 31% (-22) RFM 29% (+11) CON 21% (+5) LD 12% (+7) GRN 5% (-2) OTH 2% Jonathan Ashworth gets back into Parliament. The Tory vote wouldn't be up, neither probably would the LDs imo. I would predict something like Lab 41%, Ref 38%, Con 12%, Grn 4%, LD 3%, Oth 2%. Agree the structural analysis and effects but think the first two positions would be reversed. |
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Oct 29, 2024 12:01:31 GMT
I suspect a Corbyn type non-muslim indy might stand - it's a very wwc seat and an attack on Labour from both the populist left and right and the anger over winter fuel, two child cap and bus fare hikes could see Labour seriously squeezed between both - particularly if Labour were foolish enough to try and manipulate a return to Westminster for the appalling Ashworth.
|
|
stb12
Top Poster
Posts: 8,366
|
Post by stb12 on Oct 29, 2024 13:23:56 GMT
Ashworth actually remained in Corbyn’s shadow cabinet all the way through even during the mass 2016 resignations. So I’m bit surprised how hostile some of the harder left seem to have been towards him
|
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
Member is Online
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 29, 2024 13:31:43 GMT
Well it's because he lost, and therefore must always have been the most hated of all.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 29, 2024 13:35:13 GMT
Well tbf the way Ashworth has conducted himself since losing hasn't endeared him to all.
|
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 29, 2024 13:56:30 GMT
I suspect a Corbyn type non-muslim indy might stand - it's a very wwc seat and an attack on Labour from both the populist left and right and the anger over winter fuel, two child cap and bus fare hikes could see Labour seriously squeezed between both - particularly if Labour were foolish enough to try and manipulate a return to Westminster for the appalling Ashworth. If this were the old Halton seat, maybe. Here, not so sure. Neither the old Halton nor Weaver Vale seats were fertile for the far-left or indies (they often didn't bother in Halton). It is of course not impossible, but it would need Labour to collapse uniformly and for dissatisfied voters to coalesce around one person. I just can't see it. The villages would surely not be interested in a left-of-Labour offering, even if they have gone Labour in recent years. And presumably the Reform vote is more likely to be marked in Runcorn itself, with less appeal in the likes of Frodsham and Daresbury- but thanks to neither Reform nor the far-left putting up many if any candidates in May, it is quite hard to say where that vote would be. |
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 29, 2024 14:00:53 GMT
I suspect a Corbyn type non-muslim indy might stand - it's a very wwc seat and an attack on Labour from both the populist left and right and the anger over winter fuel, two child cap and bus fare hikes could see Labour seriously squeezed between both - particularly if Labour were foolish enough to try and manipulate a return to Westminster for the appalling Ashworth. If this were the old Halton seat, maybe. Here, not so sure. Neither the old Halton nor Weaver Vale seats were fertile for the far-left or indies (they often didn't bother in Halton). It is of course not impossible, but it would need Labour to collapse uniformly and for dissatisfied voters to coalesce around one person. I just can't see it. The villages would surely not be interested in a left-of-Labour offering, even if they have gone Labour in recent years. And presumably the Reform vote is more likely to be marked in Runcorn itself, with less appeal in the likes of Frodsham and Daresbury- but thanks to neither Reform nor the far-left putting up many if any candidates in May, it is quite hard to say where that vote would be. Two pints of lager and a packet of crisps please. |
|
|
|
Post by uthacalthing on Oct 29, 2024 15:26:45 GMT
I'm not obsessed with Keir Starmer. I campaigned against him - he won. End of story. not even a story |
|
|
|
Post by sanders on Oct 29, 2024 15:28:39 GMT
Well tbf the way Ashworth has conducted himself since losing hasn't endeared him to all. He deserved to lose. He then confirmed he deserved it. Objectively, he's had too much airtime. He's not even in the government. LBC etc haven't got the memo. |
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 29, 2024 16:57:36 GMT
Well tbf the way Ashworth has conducted himself since losing hasn't endeared him to all. He then confirmed he deserved it. Objectively, he's had too much airtime. He's not even in the government. LBC etc haven't got the memo. I'm not really sure what he did wrong, other than not pander to non-integrated elements of his seat. He was just a pretty standard Labour MP. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
Member is Online
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 29, 2024 17:01:59 GMT
Incidentally it was one of those constituencies where boundary changes affected the outcome: Aylestone was transferred to Leicester West and that will have been decisive.
|
|
dundas
Non-Aligned
Hope Not Hate is Lumpen MI5
Posts: 997
|
Post by dundas on Oct 29, 2024 17:10:12 GMT
Something like this if it happens: LAB 31% (-22) RFM 29% (+11) CON 21% (+5) LD 12% (+7) GRN 5% (-2) OTH 2% Jonathan Ashworth gets back into Parliament. Workers Party retain deposit - confirmed. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Oct 29, 2024 17:57:18 GMT
I am now really looking forward to this by-election caused by indisputable, on-film, uber-thuggish behaviour by a vicious quite out of control Labour MP. The 'optics' as you chaps term them could not be better. He has to go and we have to get our by-election. No back-room whitewash can kill this. He is an ex-MP and we can have our enjoyable day at the polls.
I sense that we can win this. Bring it on and let's hope for a few more like it.
|
|
|
|
Post by aargauer on Oct 29, 2024 19:00:57 GMT
I am now really looking forward to this by-election caused by indisputable, on-film, uber-thuggish behaviour by a vicious quite out of control Labour MP. The 'optics' as you chaps term them could not be better. He has to go and we have to get our by-election. No back-room whitewash can kill this. He is an ex-MP and we can have our enjoyable day at the polls. I sense that we can win this. Bring it on and let's hope for a few more like it. I loved the idea floated by ricmk that we hadn't enough video to draw a conclusion. I'd love to understand what can render a full force punch to the face to a guy with his hands in his pockets acceptable behaviour. I don't want him to go to prison - a suspended sentence for a one off offender would be plenty - but I can't see how he could ever be restored to the Labour whip. |
|
Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
Member is Online
|
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 29, 2024 19:03:32 GMT
Well, acceptable behaviour isn't exactly the issue.
|
|
