bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Oct 27, 2024 22:46:19 GMT
I'm a bit surprised he didn't appear to have a staffer, friends or family with him while on his night out in Frodsham (of all places) who probably could have stopped it from getting to this - the 'on the ground' videos appear to be from passers-by or others with some picking on him "the MP at Runcorn..." and he just walks off into the distance, nobody seems to follow. The man who pulls him away appears to be a passer by.
Of course MPs are entitled to their own personal time but equally I thought these are the days of round-the-clock security/accompaniment, especially in one's own constituency where you would be known.
As for the constituency, as I understand it Helsby is quite a different place to Runcorn, though is clearly massively outweighed by the latter, even notionally this would have still been fairly comfortably Labour in 2019 and so it's not surprising he chose here rather than Mid Cheshire despite it containing the largest town in his former constituency (Northwich) but much more marginal as a town though of course comfortably gained this year all the same. Either that or he happens to be based in Frodsham.
If there was a by-election some vox-pops in the Helsby/Frodsham parts could be interesting, you could imagine some chattering class types being appalled while in Runcorn as has been said it is Labour in their DNA.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 27, 2024 23:00:23 GMT
As Jack says it is pretty Scouse even though it's not officially part of Merseyside. Maybe not quite as intensely Labour as Skem but not far short. Scouseland is very difficult territory for the non-Labour parties, especially the most working-class parts of it. The fact RefUK polled 16% in say L'pool Walton at the general election makes you think that maybe the party isn't quite as weak in Scouse areas as they used to be. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 27, 2024 23:02:49 GMT
I don't think anyone, except disingenuous lefty journos and the overconfident, would expect, or pretend to expect in the former's case, Reform to win a by-election, but a good result in a by-election would bode very well for them elsewhere.
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Post by bjornhattan on Oct 27, 2024 23:08:36 GMT
I'm a bit surprised he didn't appear to have a staffer, friends or family with him while on his night out in Frodsham (of all places) who probably could have stopped it from getting to this - the 'on the ground' videos appear to be from passers-by or others with some picking on him "the MP at Runcorn..." and he just walks off into the distance, nobody seems to follow. The man who pulls him away appears to be a passer by. Of course MPs are entitled to their own personal time but equally I thought these are the days of round-the-clock security/accompaniment, especially in one's own constituency where you would be known. As for the constituency, as I understand it Helsby is quite a different place to Runcorn, though is clearly massively outweighed by the latter, even notionally this would have still been fairly comfortably Labour in 2019 and so it's not surprising he chose here rather than Mid Cheshire despite it containing the largest town in his former constituency (Northwich) but much more marginal as a town though of course comfortably gained this year all the same. Either that or he happens to be based in Frodsham. If there was a by-election some vox-pops in the Helsby/Frodsham parts could be interesting, you could imagine some chattering class types being appalled while in Runcorn as has been said it is Labour in their DNA. My modelling has Frodsham and Helsby as still being comfortably Labour - but with vote shares of 45-50% (the Tories are then in the low twenties, Reform mid teens, and Lib Dems and Greens high single figures apiece). The Runcorn wards are unsurprisingly much more Labour (generally over 60%) while the Tories rarely get above single figures, and in some wards like Halton Lea aren't far off "lost deposit" territory. Reform appear to have been stronger here but even in their strongest ward of Grange I have them trailing 61%-24%. Even in the deeply rural and very affluent Sandstone ward (Kingsley appears to be the main village and there is a station at Mouldsworth) I have Labour ahead - admittedly not by much! Local elections do bear this out; not so much in Sandstone ward but in the similar Gowy Rural Labour very nearly gained a council seat in 2023 and Runcorn's most affluent ward of Daresbury was a Labour gain in the same year. |
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Oct 27, 2024 23:14:57 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 27, 2024 23:19:32 GMT
As Jack says it is pretty Scouse even though it's not officially part of Merseyside. Maybe not quite as intensely Labour as Skem but not far short. Scouseland is very difficult territory for the non-Labour parties, especially the most working-class parts of it. The fact RefUK polled 16% in say L'pool Walton at the general election makes you think that maybe the party isn't quite as weak in Scouse areas as they used to be. 20% decrease in 2024. It's a left wing area - here in 2019 Labour loved Corbyn. The rallies in the city were incredible. Reform got 16% but it was 5787, and the Tory got lost their deposit, 3.5%. |
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Oct 27, 2024 23:28:21 GMT
Runcorn is fairly crap but the incident appears to be in Frodsham, which is rather nice. Home town of Gary Barlow (and I think Rebecca Long-Bailey grew up there). This definitely wasn't Mike Amesbury's Greatest Day. |
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Post by swanarcadian on Oct 27, 2024 23:30:55 GMT
It’s regrettable that this has happened. After Jo Cox and David Amess, there was a degree of open mindedness and even goodwill for Amesbury yesterday, before this latest footage came out, and a feeling that MPs shouldn’t be attacked, abused or threatened with impunity. We should still not lose sight of that principle.
Ben Obese-Jecty (Con, Huntingdon) has pointed out that panic alarms were issued to all MPs to mitigate any potential violent confrontations.
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Post by willpower3 on Oct 27, 2024 23:56:46 GMT
As Jack says it is pretty Scouse even though it's not officially part of Merseyside. Maybe not quite as intensely Labour as Skem but not far short. Scouseland is very difficult territory for the non-Labour parties, especially the most working-class parts of it. The fact RefUK polled 16% in say L'pool Walton at the general election makes you think that maybe the party isn't quite as weak in Scouse areas as they used to be. Labour ran a campaign which ignored much of its inner city core vote. Something which could come back to bite. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 28, 2024 1:07:13 GMT
I'm a bit surprised he didn't appear to have a staffer, friends or family with him while on his night out in Frodsham (of all places) who probably could have stopped it from getting to this - the 'on the ground' videos appear to be from passers-by or others with some picking on him "the MP at Runcorn..." and he just walks off into the distance, nobody seems to follow. The man who pulls him away appears to be a passer by. Of course MPs are entitled to their own personal time but equally I thought these are the days of round-the-clock security/accompaniment, especially in one's own constituency where you would be known. Over the last 20 years or so, I have encountered my MP (variously Geraint Davies, Andrew Pelling, Gavin Barwell and Sarah Jones) in or around Croydon town centre (or perhaps on trains into and out of London), by chance, on a number of occasions, when they have been going about their ordinary lives. I think on all (or at least most) such occasions they have been on their own, or sometimes in small canvassing groups during election campaigns. I don’t think I’ve ever come across any of them them being accompanied by any security or bodyguard as such. Maybe the default security situation now (within the last 2 or 3 years) may have become slightly tighter, but I think in most cases most MPs would go about their daily business in their own constituencies relatively alone or anonymously. |
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Oct 28, 2024 3:57:22 GMT
I've groundhopped both Runcorn teams and yes the town itself is a touch rough around the edges though that doesn't justify calling the entire constituency chavvy. There are some leafy bits.
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Post by sanders on Oct 28, 2024 4:54:56 GMT
I wonder. Would Miliband, Balls or Ashworth stand? I think Blair should stand here.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Oct 28, 2024 5:32:17 GMT
I wonder. Would Miliband, Balls or Ashworth stand? I think Blair should stand here. The seat favours Labour but it's nowhere near safe enough to mess around with things like that. |
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Post by aargauer on Oct 28, 2024 5:51:27 GMT
I wonder. Would Miliband, Balls or Ashworth stand? I think Blair should stand here. The seat favours Labour but it's nowhere near safe enough to mess around with things like that. Ashworth is from only around 20 miles away. |
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Post by sanders on Oct 28, 2024 5:57:03 GMT
The seat favours Labour but it's nowhere near safe enough to mess around with things like that. Ashworth is from only around 20 miles away. I think Ashworth would apply, yes. Media treat him like an MP. I call it out almost weekly. LBC had him on pretty recently. On what basis, I'll never know. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 28, 2024 8:20:32 GMT
I've groundhopped both Runcorn teams and yes the town itself is a touch rough around the edges though that doesn't justify calling the entire constituency chavvy. There are some leafy bits. Very leafy across large swathes of it. Daresbury and the like are very nice. Runcorn itself is on my mental list of places I don't want to be sent to work in again. |
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 28, 2024 9:16:48 GMT
Foreshadowing
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Post by aargauer on Oct 28, 2024 9:25:01 GMT
I'm expecting a big swing from labour. Reform have a puncher's chance here. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 28, 2024 9:27:33 GMT
I'm expecting a big swing from labour. This is where spelling matters. "I have been canvassed by Mike Amesbury". "I have been canvased by Mike Amesbury". |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 28, 2024 9:40:46 GMT
At the end of the day I am struggling with the idea he would do this *for no reason*, intoxicated or not. So we will just have to wait and see what emerges.
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