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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 18:07:44 GMT
I'm trying to work out some notional ward results in London (I had most of the base data already prepared) but seats like this are going to present a challenge. The best approach seems to be to base the vote for the Independent candidate on the proportion of the population who identify as muslim. Doing this here has the Independent winning easily in Valentines and Cranbrook (the areas added from Ilford South, ie lacking any imcumbency vote for Streeting) with around 50% of the vote - neck and enck with Labour in Barkinside and Clayhall, a little way behind in Aldborough and well behind (and also begind the Tories) in Fulwell, Hainault, Fairlop. Obviously I expect Reform's vote to be quite concentrated in the latter two wards. Would this match with the impressions of those who campaigned here? I think you're 100% on the money here, which is why I believe Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town ward because of the massive Bangladeshi population. |
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 5, 2024 18:12:00 GMT
I didn't say it was, but if it has that result it will still be beneficial (to both Labour and himself) Btw there is an alternate reality where Hamas decide not to go on a murderous rampage on October 7th after their initial military success - this would not just have resulted in Bibi being toppled almost immediately (a good thing for the whole world) If Hamas had stuck only to military targets, even I would have been cheering them on Oct 8th. But that's clearly an alternate reality where they still had a sliver of moral grounding and weren't just a bunch of rabid wild animals. It's a shame... |
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Jul 5, 2024 18:36:34 GMT
I didn't say it was, but if it has that result it will still be beneficial (to both Labour and himself) Btw there is an alternate reality where Hamas decide not to go on a murderous rampage on October 7th after their initial military success - this would not just have resulted in Bibi being toppled almost immediately (a good thing for the whole world) If Hamas had stuck only to military targets, even I would have been cheering them on Oct 8th. But that's clearly an alternate reality where they still had a sliver of moral grounding and weren't just a bunch of rabid wild animals. It's a shame... Yes, I think I said it at the time. The attack on the Israeli military positions was morally justifiable and both a tactical and strategic success. Had it not been for what came with it the humiliation of such a failure would have likely forced Bibi from office. |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 5, 2024 18:40:03 GMT
I can't see an alternative reality where October 7th didn't happen because it interrupted peace accords between Israel and Arabs nations. I can't see Hamas letting them happen without attempting to derail it.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 5, 2024 20:45:08 GMT
I didn't say it was, but if it has that result it will still be beneficial (to both Labour and himself) Btw there is an alternate reality where Hamas decide not to go on a murderous rampage on October 7th after their initial military success - this would not just have resulted in Bibi being toppled almost immediately (a good thing for the whole world) If Hamas had stuck only to military targets, even I would have been cheering them on Oct 8th. But that's clearly an alternate reality where they still had a sliver of moral grounding and weren't just a bunch of rabid wild animals. It's a shame... Hamas do have a sliver of moral grounding. Unfortunately their morality is grounded in passages from the Quran and Hadith which portray the atrocities they committed on October 7th as morally upstanding.[/pedant]
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 1:23:37 GMT
Can we move this discussion to the Israel thread, please? This thread is for people to apologise for ignoring my calls that this was going to be a three-figure majority.
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 6, 2024 1:34:56 GMT
Can we move this discussion to the Israel thread, please? This thread is for people to apologise for ignoring my calls that this was going to be a three-figure majority. This election has shown that in a not insignificant number of seats, Israel/Gaza *is* the crucial vote-determining issue. The Health Secretary could well be unseated by an Islamist at the next election. Given this pressure, will Streeting now approach issues such as HIV, gender dysphoria, and abortion in a way that is convenient for him electorally, but inappropriate for the LGBT (and country) as a whole?? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 1:48:12 GMT
Can we move this discussion to the Israel thread, please? This thread is for people to apologise for ignoring my calls that this was going to be a three-figure majority. This election has shown that in a not insignificant number of seats, Israel/Gaza *is* the crucial vote-determining issue. The Health Secretary could well be unseated by an Islamist at the next election. Given this pressure, will Streeting now approach issues such as HIV, gender dysphoria, and abortion in a way that is convenient for him electorally, but inappropriate for the LGBT (and country) as a whole?? Streeting might want to work on Labour's Muslim outreach here. The demographics of this seat are such that Streeting may well have lost this in an October election, notwithstanding reduction in the potency of the Gaza issue (actually, withstanding it, since a lot of Leanne's support was based on the view that this area *should* have a. muslim MP). By the next GE, this constituency could be over 40% Muslim. If I was Wes, I'd seriously consider a chicken run next time. Leanne wins in 2029, IMHO. |
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riccimarsh
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Post by riccimarsh on Jul 6, 2024 2:15:57 GMT
This election has shown that in a not insignificant number of seats, Israel/Gaza *is* the crucial vote-determining issue. The Health Secretary could well be unseated by an Islamist at the next election. Given this pressure, will Streeting now approach issues such as HIV, gender dysphoria, and abortion in a way that is convenient for him electorally, but inappropriate for the LGBT (and country) as a whole?? Streeting might want to work on Labour's Muslim outreach here. The demographics of this seat are such that Streeting may well have lost this in an October election, notwithstanding reduction in the potency of the Gaza issue (actually, withstanding it, since a lot of Leanne's support was based on the view that this area *should* have a. muslim MP). By the next GE, this constituency could be over 40% Muslim. If I was Wes, I'd seriously consider a chicken run next time. Leanne wins in 2029, IMHO. He should just convert. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 2:21:21 GMT
Streeting might want to work on Labour's Muslim outreach here. The demographics of this seat are such that Streeting may well have lost this in an October election, notwithstanding reduction in the potency of the Gaza issue (actually, withstanding it, since a lot of Leanne's support was based on the view that this area *should* have a. muslim MP). By the next GE, this constituency could be over 40% Muslim. If I was Wes, I'd seriously consider a chicken run next time. Leanne wins in 2029, IMHO. He should just convert. There are not that many openly gay Muslims (note that I'm not saying there aren't (many or) any gay muslims). As a revert myself, I could probably beat Streeting here. If Wes took shahada and converted, many would not accept him into the faith because he is out LGBT, I'm sorry to say. Many Muslims won't vote for a gay man. Does this result mean Streeting has the largest Muslim electorate of any out-of-the-closet LGBT MP in the country? How long has that been the case? |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jul 6, 2024 5:14:33 GMT
If this seat is that highly Muslim it’s interesting that it was a marginal with the Tories as recently as 2015. All the other heavily Muslim seats have tended to be safe Labour, with the obvious Gaza backlash coming into play at this election
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Post by Deleted on Jul 6, 2024 5:21:49 GMT
If this seat is what highly Muslim it’s interesting that it was a marginal with the Tories as recently as 2015. All the other heavily Muslim seats have tended to be safe Labour, with the obvious Gaza backlash coming into play at this election That's why it was still easily winnable for the Conservatives in 2010, but isn't anymore. It was 31% Muslim in 2021. Plus boundary changes. This seat is about 10 years ahead (slightly more) of where Chingford & Woodford Green's demography (16% Muslim in 2021) might be going in the future. |
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Post by jakegb on Jul 6, 2024 8:07:23 GMT
Can we move this discussion to the Israel thread, please? This thread is for people to apologise for ignoring my calls that this was going to be a three-figure majority. I will credit you for getting so close to the actual result. Clearly, you tapped into the demographics of this particular seat well. I for one didn't think it would be this close, though I never thought WS would win big here. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 6, 2024 8:47:18 GMT
I'm trying to work out some notional ward results in London (I had most of the base data already prepared) but seats like this are going to present a challenge. The best approach seems to be to base the vote for the Independent candidate on the proportion of the population who identify as muslim. Doing this here has the Independent winning easily in Valentines and Cranbrook (the areas added from Ilford South, ie lacking any imcumbency vote for Streeting) with around 50% of the vote - neck and enck with Labour in Barkinside and Clayhall, a little way behind in Aldborough and well behind (and also begind the Tories) in Fulwell, Hainault, Fairlop. Obviously I expect Reform's vote to be quite concentrated in the latter two wards. Would this match with the impressions of those who campaigned here? I think you're 100% on the money here, which is why I believe Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town ward because of the massive Bangladeshi population. Why on earth did you campaign for someone mad enough to be in the ANC? |
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Post by mattbewilson on Jul 6, 2024 9:30:34 GMT
I think you're 100% on the money here, which is why I believe Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town ward because of the massive Bangladeshi population. Why on earth did you campaign for someone mad enough to be in the ANC? I mean there was a good few people campaigning for the ANC to be re elected this year |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jul 6, 2024 9:41:25 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. No, his majority will be over 50%. Crap takes I have done. Example one of many... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2024 9:42:28 GMT
Why on earth did you campaign for someone mad enough to be in the ANC? I mean there was a good few people campaigning for the ANC to be re elected this year A good few people, but few good people |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2024 10:09:08 GMT
I think you're 100% on the money here, which is why I believe Feinstein carried St Pancras & Somers Town ward because of the massive Bangladeshi population. Why on earth did you campaign for someone mad enough to be in the ANC? I can only imagine the amount of self loathing a white person has to have for him to support the ANC even post Mandela… |
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Post by rcronald on Jul 6, 2024 10:14:29 GMT
There are not that many openly gay Muslims (note that I'm not saying there aren't (many or) any gay muslims). As a revert myself, I could probably beat Streeting here. If Wes took shahada and converted, many would not accept him into the faith because he is out LGBT, I'm sorry to say. Many Muslims won't vote for a gay man. Does this result mean Streeting has the largest Muslim electorate of any out-of-the-closet LGBT MP in the country? How long has that been the case? He should have run away from this bigoted constituency to Leyton, Kim Leadbeater smartly did the same thing in Batley even if the constituency she moved to was much less labour inclined on paper (Reform and the Tories both received 24% in her new constituency this election, so she’s probably going to be in trouble in 2029, but at least she can be a lesbian woman with opinions of her own without the threat of violence) |
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rr
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Post by rr on Jul 6, 2024 11:45:19 GMT
There are not that many openly gay Muslims (note that I'm not saying there aren't (many or) any gay muslims). As a revert myself, I could probably beat Streeting here. If Wes took shahada and converted, many would not accept him into the faith because he is out LGBT, I'm sorry to say. Many Muslims won't vote for a gay man. Does this result mean Streeting has the largest Muslim electorate of any out-of-the-closet LGBT MP in the country? How long has that been the case? He should have run away from this bigoted constituency to Leyton, Kim Leadbeater smartly did the same thing in Batley even if the constituency she moved to was much less labour inclined on paper (Reform and the Tories both received 24% in her new constituency this election, so she’s probably going to be in trouble in 2029, but at least she can be a lesbian woman with opinions of her own without the threat of violence) No-one should have to run anywhere because of their race, religion or sexuality. I do hope the new government gets a grip on this apparent emerging sectarianism and double quick. |
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