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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2024 14:09:08 GMT
There is something about Wes Streeting - I think he is too ambitious "And Brutus is an honourable man". Murderous and manipulative? |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 24, 2024 14:13:50 GMT
"And Brutus is an honourable man". Murderous and manipulative? "Now let it work. Mischief, thou art afoot, / Take thou what course thou wilt!"
The speech was by Marc Anthony of course, himself not exactly without ambition and effectively incited murder as well.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 24, 2024 15:27:27 GMT
TL;DR: Muslims have friends, some of whom are white, some of whom will vote for the independent because of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. I oversimplify things here thinking it'll just a bloc vote from Muslims for Leanne, but I think a lot of white liberals will back her too. This is going to be closer than people think. When I was right wing, I cheered when Ed Balls lost his seat in 2015. I think many on the left might jump for joy if Wes goes down. There is something about Wes Streeting - I think he is too ambitious Vaughan Gething definitely has similar vibes, and that one doesn't look like it is going to end well. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 15:30:05 GMT
I know a fair few who will shout 'Allahu Akbar' at the TV if Streeting loses. Leanne Mohamad is the hard left here what Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib is in the US.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 26, 2024 7:34:04 GMT
A good thread to read in its entirety if only for Weld's comments:
2nd June
8th June
21st June
23rd June
24th June
FWIW, Lab hold c. 52-55%
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 26, 2024 7:36:27 GMT
I'm not sure rereading all of that was necessary
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2024 8:14:23 GMT
A good thread to read in its entirety if only for Weld's comments: 2nd June 8th June 21st June 23rd June 24th June FWIW, Lab hold c. 52-55% I need to learn how to slice and dice quotes like that. No way Labour increases its vote share here with a nice Palestinian lady vs Streeting IMO, but if you say so! |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 26, 2024 8:16:49 GMT
I need to learn how to slice and dice quotes like that. Type: [Xquote]insert quote here[X/quote] (Just without the Xs) |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 30, 2024 4:51:09 GMT
Owen Jones (I know, but you don't have to agree with him on everything to see value in some of Jones's work) on the campaign trail with Leanne Mohamad, who is a genuine left-wing firebrand - look at the speech she made at 15 about Palestine - it's the far left's equivalent of William Hague speaking at the Tory conference in 1977. Lots of Black and Asian voters supporting her and plenty of first time voters backing her. They speak to one voter who hasn't voted since Margaret Thatcher was Tory leader. A lot of Conservative - Labour switchers turning out for Leanna because of Starmer's infamous (IMO) LBC interview about Gaza. If you think that Leanne is on track to lose her deposit, I'd strongly suggest you actually engage with her USP and campaign. As I often imply here, you underestimate progressives at your peril. Lots of multi-generational Labour voting families moving away from the party due to Gaza. They talk as if Ilford North has been Labour for decades and not just the last nine years. Leanne voted for Labour as a first-time voter in 2019 so she's not a diehard anti-Labour person. NHS privatisation seems like a big issue for Leanne's campaign. You can't help coming away from this thinking that this seat should really have an ethnic minority MP given its demographics these days. "It's not just Gaza". I think identity politics will put Leanne over the time, just as I believe antisemitism gave Labour this seat in 2015. There are even (shock horror for some posters here) Jewish supporters for Leanne Mohamad. This campaign reminds me a helluva lot of AOC's campaign in 2018 when she toppled Democratic strongman Joe Crowley. Leanne has more volunteers than Wes. Labour aren't taking her seriously at all. That's fine by me. I bet on Leanne winning the seat off Wesley. I think a pro-Gaza donkey wearing a hijab would beat Labour in this seat. "She's got cut through, she's got a base of support here" (including lifelong Labour voters). Wes Streeting should walk this seat, but it sure as hell doesn't feel like it if you look at what's happening on the ground in Ilford. TL:DR; Leanne is extremely charismatic. Wes not so much. It's giving AOC v Crowley; Ayanna Pressley v Capuano; Rashida Tlaib v Brenda Jones; Cori Bush (same campaign colours) v Clay; Bowman vs Engel; Summer Lee v Irwin. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 30, 2024 15:47:18 GMT
The letter in question is from someone who is "very much hoping Wes Streeting wins Ilford North for another term" but goes on to warn of another candidate who wants to "drag this country back to the Middle Ages" - warning that if similar candidates are elected "then this country could be under Shariah Law in 10 years". This is how Wes Streeting deals with it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 1, 2024 0:32:26 GMT
The letter in question is from someone who is "very much hoping Wes Streeting wins Ilford North for another term" but goes on to warn of another candidate who wants to "drag this country back to the Middle Ages" - warning that if similar candidates are elected "then this country could be under Shariah Law in 10 years". This is how Wes Streeting deals with it. Although I think that Wes Streeting will narrowly miss out here, on a personal level the man has a lot of class, and is a gentleman compared to say, Luke Akehurst. Separate from what you mention, here is what Leanne had to say about the torrent of vitriolic bile she receives routinely in her campaign to replace Streeting here. |
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Post by norflondon on Jul 5, 2024 3:30:57 GMT
Wes squeaks in. An amazing performance from the independent.
Streeting (LAB): 33.4% (-20.7)
Mohamad (IND): 32.2% (+32.2)
Rizvi (CON): 20.5% (-16.2)
Wilson (REF): 7.7% (+5.8)
Collinson (GRN): 3.8% (+2.4)
Coppin (LD): 2.3% (-1.7)
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 3:36:54 GMT
2021 Muslim percentage: 31%
2024 Mohamad vote share: 32%
The Green vote saves Streeting's bacon.
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jul 5, 2024 7:18:17 GMT
2021 Muslim percentage: 31% 2024 Mohamad vote sahre: 32% The Green vote saves Streeting's bacon. I'm not sure whether it was fortunate, educated or both, but even though you didn't get the result you wanted, you had the last laugh on the forum here and other seats where I and others disagreed with you. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 5, 2024 9:46:39 GMT
I've never encountered a result where I am so glad that labour won.
Streeting is almost unreasonably likeable and willing to say things nobody else on the left is.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 5, 2024 9:48:20 GMT
Leanne Mohamad is about 3/4 years younger than me (I'm 27) so she could stand again in 2029.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 10:46:08 GMT
Leanne Mohamad is about 3/4 years younger than me (I'm 27) so she could stand again in 2029. And assuming that Gaza is no longer a thing, what would be her prospectus? In many ways this may be the best possible result as far as Streeting is concerned, a scare that might make him just that bit less overweeningly ambitious. |
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Post by aargauer on Jul 5, 2024 12:08:15 GMT
Leanne Mohamad is about 3/4 years younger than me (I'm 27) so she could stand again in 2029. And assuming that Gaza is no longer a thing, what would be her prospectus? In many ways this may be the best possible result as far as Streeting is concerned, a scare that might make him just that bit less overweeningly ambitious. But the scare is not a result of his ambition but of geopolitics. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2024 12:15:08 GMT
I didn't say it was, but if it has that result it will still be beneficial (to both Labour and himself)
Btw there is an alternate reality where Hamas decide not to go on a murderous rampage on October 7th after their initial military success - this would not just have resulted in Bibi being toppled almost immediately (a good thing for the whole world) but very likely means seats like this are still safe Labour, and the party maybe gets close to the 40% it had hoped for in this election even without winning many more MPs (same with Iraq, a lot of "trendy" white types were put off the party as well as Muslims)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 5, 2024 18:03:10 GMT
I'm trying to work out some notional ward results in London (I had most of the base data already prepared) but seats like this are going to present a challenge. The best approach seems to be to base the vote for the Independent candidate on the proportion of the population who identify as muslim. Doing this here has the Independent winning easily in Valentines and Cranbrook (the areas added from Ilford South, ie lacking any imcumbency vote for Streeting) with around 50% of the vote - neck and enck with Labour in Barkinside and Clayhall, a little way behind in Aldborough and well behind (and also begind the Tories) in Fulwell, Hainault, Fairlop. Obviously I expect Reform's vote to be quite concentrated in the latter two wards.
Would this match with the impressions of those who campaigned here?
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