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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2024 9:42:10 GMT
Lee Scott’s defeat was nothing to do with his being Jewish. It was purely because he was the Conservative candidate, defeated by demographic change which this seat has seen in abundance.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 21, 2024 9:44:57 GMT
Decent chance it has as much to do with your wife being Bobo as it has to do with her being a Muslim. ? Basically the Bristol Central crowd. People with bourgeoise eduction and world views of a bohemian. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 9:46:09 GMT
Basically the Bristol Central crowd. People with bourgeoise eduction and world views of a bohemian. Oh |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Jun 21, 2024 10:04:06 GMT
When is the poll request coming for Liverpool Walton?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 21, 2024 11:38:47 GMT
When is the poll request coming for Liverpool Walton? Next Wednesday, is the planned installation day, but if the zinc galvanising isn't completed in time it will have to be rearranged. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 11:41:11 GMT
Lee Scott’s defeat was nothing to do with his being Jewish. It was purely because he was the Conservative candidate, defeated by demographic change which this seat has seen in abundance. I seem to recall Wes Streeting hugging Lee Scott at the declaration and had got it into my head that it was in part because of some sort of vicious campaign there. |
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Ports
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Post by Ports on Jun 21, 2024 11:56:18 GMT
Lee Scott’s defeat was nothing to do with his being Jewish. It was purely because he was the Conservative candidate, defeated by demographic change which this seat has seen in abundance. I seem to recall Wes Streeting hugging Lee Scott at the declaration and had got it into my head that it was in part because of some sort of vicious campaign there. Well in the speech Streeting made immediately afterwards he acknowledged his regard for Lee Scott on a personal level - they clearly had some acquaintance with and like of each other. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 12:06:21 GMT
I seem to recall Wes Streeting hugging Lee Scott at the declaration and had got it into my head that it was in part because of some sort of vicious campaign there. Well in the speech Streeting made immediately afterwards he acknowledged his regard for Lee Scott on a personal level - they clearly had some acquaintance with and like of each other. Yes. It was a shame Lee Scott didn't get another seat. He and Nick de Bois were really frustrating 2015 losses but sometimes the demographics just go against you. |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 22, 2024 5:41:05 GMT
Well in the speech Streeting made immediately afterwards he acknowledged his regard for Lee Scott on a personal level - they clearly had some acquaintance with and like of each other. Yes. It was a shame Lee Scott didn't get another seat. He and Nick de Bois were really frustrating 2015 losses but sometimes the demographics just go against you. He’s now a Cabinet member on Essex County Council so he’s not done too badly since then. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 12:45:35 GMT
Leanne Mohamad ad. Britain's answer to Ilhan Omar or Rashida Tlaib. It's giving Squad vibes.
Already viewed 182,000 times (albeit most viewers won't live in this constituency)
14/1 for Leanne Mohamad winning are pretty decent odds.
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bungle
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Post by bungle on Jun 23, 2024 19:06:07 GMT
If you don’t think she’s ultimately going to prevail, she could be 5/1 or 50/1. It makes no difference. The money is going into the satchel.
Or I could put £100 on her at 14/1 and then she’d be 10/1 and guess what the narrative would be….plenty have done it to create a story. It is all a load of rubbish. I have once bet on this seat - in May 2014 I bet on Wes Streeting winning here in 2015 and that was a proper bet. £20 at 3/1. Not silly pie in the sky stuff.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 3:22:50 GMT
I keep thinking that this seat is 44% South Asian. That was true at the time of the 2021 census (based on what people wrote down on the form) but I reckon it's more like 48% now and this seat isn't far off being majority Asian. I think the Asian population went from 31% in 2011 to 44% in 2021, so if we assume that growth rate continued then it's probably closer to 50% than 40% now. Whether that change is enough for Streeting to go down is anyone's guess. It depends how many of the arrivals are Muslims from Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets etc. It'd be ironic given that the demographic change by 2015 was just enough for Labour to win, if it's now just enough for Labour to lose to a British Palestinian independent. I have the Cava on ice (maybe it should be something else given who and what his rival is), and more because of his tenure as Shadow Health Secretary than anything related to people thousands of miles away about which I still know very little.
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 24, 2024 6:42:44 GMT
I keep thinking that this seat is 44% South Asian. That was true at the time of the 2021 census (based on what people wrote down on the form) but I reckon it's more like 48% now and this seat isn't far off being majority Asian. I think the Asian population went from 31% in 2011 to 44% in 2021, so if we assume that growth rate continued then it's probably closer to 50% than 40% now. Whether that change is enough for Streeting to go down is anyone's guess. It depends how many of the arrivals are Muslims from Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets etc. It'd be ironic given that the demographic change by 2015 was just enough for Labour to win, if it's now just enough for Labour to lose to a British Palestinian independent. I have the Cava on ice (maybe it should be something else given who and what his rival is), and more because of his tenure as Shadow Health Secretary than anything related to people thousands of miles away about which I still know very little. Thanks to the hard work of a couple of people on this forum, it is easy enough to find out what the Muslim percentage in this seat is. It’s 31%… … and they won’t be monolithic. I don’t think Streeting is in danger. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 6:43:57 GMT
I keep thinking that this seat is 44% South Asian. That was true at the time of the 2021 census (based on what people wrote down on the form) but I reckon it's more like 48% now and this seat isn't far off being majority Asian. I think the Asian population went from 31% in 2011 to 44% in 2021, so if we assume that growth rate continued then it's probably closer to 50% than 40% now. Whether that change is enough for Streeting to go down is anyone's guess. It depends how many of the arrivals are Muslims from Barking & Dagenham, Newham, Tower Hamlets etc. It'd be ironic given that the demographic change by 2015 was just enough for Labour to win, if it's now just enough for Labour to lose to a British Palestinian independent. I have the Cava on ice (maybe it should be something else given who and what his rival is), and more because of his tenure as Shadow Health Secretary than anything related to people thousands of miles away about which I still know very little. Thanks to the hard work of a couple of people on this forum, it is easy enough to find out what the Muslim percentage in this seat is. It’s 31%… … and they won’t be monolithic. I don’t think Streeting is in danger. The current Muslim share? How could anyone know? We're all working off 2021 figures but I'm estimating the change since 2021 too. I've put £25 on Leanne (14/1). |
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YL
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Post by YL on Jun 24, 2024 6:46:03 GMT
Thanks to the hard work of a couple of people on this forum, it is easy enough to find out what the Muslim percentage in this seat is. It’s 31%… … and they won’t be monolithic. I don’t think Streeting is in danger. The current Muslim percentage? How could anyone know? We're all working off 2021 figures but I'm estimating the change since 2021. I've put £25 on Mohamad at 14/1. The 2021 one, but I would be very surprised if it had changed enough in three years to change my opinion. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 6:46:49 GMT
The current Muslim percentage? How could anyone know? We're all working off 2021 figures but I'm estimating the change since 2021. I've put £25 on Mohamad at 14/1. The 2021 one, but I would be very surprised if it had changed enough in three years to change my opinion. Considering the change from 2011 to 2021, I'd be surprised if the Muslim share isn't closer to 35% here now. I guess Covid may have slowed down moving to here. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2024 8:17:47 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 24, 2024 13:31:44 GMT
TL;DR: Muslims have friends, some of whom are white, some of whom will vote for the independent because of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. I oversimplify things here thinking it'll just a bloc vote from Muslims for Leanne, but I think a lot of white liberals will back her too. This is going to be closer than people think. When I was right wing, I cheered when Ed Balls lost his seat in 2015. I think many on the left might jump for joy if Wes goes down. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jun 24, 2024 13:38:53 GMT
TL;DR: Muslims have friends, some of whom are white, some of whom will vote for the independent because of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. I oversimplify things here thinking it'll just a bloc vote from Muslims for Leanne, but I think a lot of white liberals will back her too. This is going to be closer than people think. When I was right wing, I cheered when Ed Balls lost his seat in 2015. I think many on the left might jump for joy if Wes goes down. There is something about Wes Streeting - I think he is too ambitious |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 24, 2024 13:58:39 GMT
TL;DR: Muslims have friends, some of whom are white, some of whom will vote for the independent because of solidarity with the Palestinian cause. I oversimplify things here thinking it'll just a bloc vote from Muslims for Leanne, but I think a lot of white liberals will back her too. This is going to be closer than people think. When I was right wing, I cheered when Ed Balls lost his seat in 2015. I think many on the left might jump for joy if Wes goes down. There is something about Wes Streeting - I think he is too ambitious "And Brutus is an honourable man". |
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