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Post by batman on Jun 2, 2024 7:01:51 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. no he isn’t |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2024 7:30:01 GMT
This seat is now 43% South Asian, so the independent (who is Palestinian) will likely make a bit of a splash here although they probably won't get close to winning. I also worry that there could be an element of homophobia in the campaign here, but I hope not.
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Post by batman on Jun 2, 2024 8:26:00 GMT
It is quite strongly South Asian but a lot of the South Asians aren't Muslim. My wife has family members living in the constituency, they're Indian Christians, and there are quite a lot of such voters here now (mostly moved from the borough of Newham). There will also certainly be Hindus & Sikhs, especially the former.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 2, 2024 8:43:38 GMT
It is quite strongly South Asian but a lot of the South Asians aren't Muslim. My wife has family members living in the constituency, they're Indian Christians, and there are quite a lot of such voters here now (mostly moved from the borough of Newham). There will also certainly be Hindus & Sikhs, especially the former. A lot of the Muslims here are also not the type of Muslims who’d vote for a protest candidate en-masse. |
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2024 8:51:20 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. No, his majority will be over 50%. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 2, 2024 10:18:46 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. No, his majority will be over 50%. His majority? |
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Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 7, 2024 18:35:15 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. No. I’ll take more Tory votes than Leanne will take Labour votes. Wes will be fine. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2024 5:17:26 GMT
Is Wesley in danger here? Independent candidate Leanne Mohammed is building up a good following, it's being reported. Wes will be fine. I'm not sure that's true (no offence). UKIP got around 9% here in 2015 and the demographics have gotten better for the left here since then. I put it to you that the pro-Gaza independent is fishing in a bigger pond than Reform UK in this constituency. Congratulations on your London Assembly election btw. |
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Post by hempie on Jun 8, 2024 11:09:53 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 6:57:10 GMT
Only one Gaza independent here so a straightforward gain:
IND 36%
LAB 34%
CON 25%
OTH 5%
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Post by batman on Jun 21, 2024 7:14:01 GMT
Your idiotic trolling is ruining this site almost single-handedly. Have you literally not noticed that Labour is poised for a record-breaking majority? I don’t know what goes on in your head but you really don’t understand electoral politics, yet post endlessly and inanely. Please take a break for all our sakes.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 8:13:11 GMT
AdminSTB, please add a poll here. Up until recently, this constituency's demographic trends have benefitted Labour handsomely. However, this area is becoming more of a bona fide East London, with the seat transforming from a marginal Labour seat in 2015 to a safe Labour seat by 2019 standards four years later. However, that change speaks to the division's volatility. The seat's Muslim population has skyrocketed since 2010, and these were a reliable bulwark for Labour in their 2019 shellacking. Now, we have an independent, Leanne Mohammed, standing. It's unlikely it gets close, but it could be with stark differences between Labour and the Independent and a vast and volatile ethnic minority electorate. Many will protest at it, but it would be illuminating and is justified, IMO. I believe it's unlikely the Tories could break through because of the demographic changes, but a suitable poll would include Labour, Conservative, Independent. Thanks.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 21, 2024 8:29:11 GMT
AdminSTB , please add a poll here. Up until recently, this constituency's demographic trends have benefitted Labour handsomely. However, this area is becoming more of a bona fide East London, with the seat transforming from a marginal Labour seat in 2015 to a safe Labour seat by 2019 standards four years later. However, that change speaks to the division's volatility. The seat's Muslim population has skyrocketed since 2010, and these were a reliable bulwark for Labour in their 2019 shellacking. Now, we have an independent, Leanne Mohammed, standing. It's unlikely it gets close, but it could be with stark differences between Labour and the Independent and a vast and volatile ethnic minority electorate. Many will protest at it, but it would be illuminating and is justified, IMO. I believe it's unlikely the Tories could break through because of the demographic changes, but a suitable poll would include Labour, Conservative, Independent. Thanks. No! Please let's not do this to facilitate the whims of the Forum dilettante. |
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ricmk
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Post by ricmk on Jun 21, 2024 8:33:17 GMT
The only sensible poll here would be on whether Streeting's majority is over 20k, 15k or 10k. I would be worried if I'd bankrolled the Independent's deposit here.
We are all excited about the GE on this site, that's why we are regulars here, but there's good advice in the posts above. Maybe this thread really is a good moment to call for us all to take a deep breath and calm down for a moment?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 9:09:49 GMT
The only sensible poll here would be on whether Streeting's majority is over 20k, 15k or 10k. Why? Given recent demographic changes, I submit to you that parts of this seat are capable of the volatility we saw in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 (I'm talking about the parts along the A10 that are the most similar to Sam Tarry's constituency. Didn't Lee Scott's defeat have something to do with his Jewish background in 2015? I seem to recall a really nasty antisemitic campaign against him which is why he hung up his boots despite being a decent MP for a decade. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 21, 2024 9:22:13 GMT
If I had a Politics A level, I would be handing it back in shame that @weld somehow managed to get one.
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 21, 2024 9:23:57 GMT
The only sensible poll here would be on whether Streeting's majority is over 20k, 15k or 10k. Why? Given recent demographic changes, I submit to you that parts of this seat are capable of the volatility we saw in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 (I'm talking about the parts along the A10 that are the most similar to Sam Tarry's constituency. Didn't Lee Scott's defeat have something to do with his Jewish background in 2015? I seem to recall a really nasty antisemitic campaign against him which is why he hung up his boots despite being a decent MP for a decade. The constituency is not deprived enough for a Gaza Indi to do very well. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 9:25:20 GMT
Why? Given recent demographic changes, I submit to you that parts of this seat are capable of the volatility we saw in Bethnal Green and Bow in 2005 (I'm talking about the parts along the A10 that are the most similar to Sam Tarry's constituency. Didn't Lee Scott's defeat have something to do with his Jewish background in 2015? I seem to recall a really nasty antisemitic campaign against him which is why he hung up his boots despite being a decent MP for a decade. The constituency is not deprived enough for a Gaza Indi to do very well. I don't know about that. The seem of disquiet over the issue runs deep, regardless of socioeconomic cleavages, here and elsewhere. My wife is Pakistani and has an LSE Masters and makes £40k a year and yet, Gaza is her most important issue in the election. |
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rcronald
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Post by rcronald on Jun 21, 2024 9:36:56 GMT
The constituency is not deprived enough for a Gaza Indi to do very well. I don't know about that. The seem of disquiet over the issue runs deep, regardless of socioeconomic cleavages, here and elsewhere. My wife is Pakistani and has an LSE Masters and makes £40k a year and yet, Gaza is her most important issue in the election. Decent chance it has as much to do with your wife being Bobo as it has to do with her being a Muslim. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2024 9:40:47 GMT
I don't know about that. The seem of disquiet over the issue runs deep, regardless of socioeconomic cleavages, here and elsewhere. My wife is Pakistani and has an LSE Masters and makes £40k a year and yet, Gaza is her most important issue in the election. Decent chance it has as much to do with your wife being Bobo as it has to do with her being a Muslim. ? |
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