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Post by aargauer on Aug 18, 2024 16:29:01 GMT
Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. 2029 will also be a different election as well, though. Labour are unlikely to focus so exclusively on a single fairly small segment of the electorate again. What segment is (was) that? |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 18, 2024 16:48:50 GMT
2029 will also be a different election as well, though. Labour are unlikely to focus so exclusively on a single fairly small segment of the electorate again. What segment is (was) that? "Hero voters" Tory/Labour voters who count as double. We'll obviously defending on multiple fronts next time so they'll be a multifaceted approach next time. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 16:58:18 GMT
Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. 2029 will also be a different election as well, though. Labour are unlikely to focus so exclusively on a single fairly small segment of the electorate again. Labour have a ways to fall. Their lowest vote in Hackney North? 48.7% when Diane Abbott first won. |
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 18, 2024 17:06:11 GMT
What segment is (was) that? "Hero voters" Tory/Labour voters who count as double. We'll obviously defending on multiple fonts next time so they'll be a multifaceted approach next time. The result in Baskerville Central should be interesting. |
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 18, 2024 17:07:20 GMT
Stoke Newington Green result worth watching. Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. If Abbott retires and gets replaced with some generic centrist Labour candidate then I'd agree, but I think Abbott has enough personal vote to keep the seat as long as she wants. The Labour vote here (60%) was the second-strongest Labour achieved anywhere in London. Some seats I think are worth watching out for are the ones where the Greens performed respectably, Labour performed poorly, and there was a sizeable Gaza independent vote- the Greens surely have a chance of capturing those voters. But the issue for the Greens in London now is that they don't have a single obvious target seat- they have around 15 reasonable but difficult prospects. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 17:09:43 GMT
Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. If Abbott retires and gets replaced with some generic centrist Labour candidate then I'd agree, but I think Abbott has enough personal vote to keep the seat as long as she wants. The Labour vote here (60%) was the second-strongest Labour achieved anywhere in London. Some seats I think are worth watching out for are the ones where the Greens performed respectably, Labour performed poorly, and there was a sizeable Gaza independent vote- the Greens surely have a chance of capturing those voters. But the issue for the Greens in London now is that they don't have a single obvious target seat- they have around 15 reasonable but difficult prospects. Islington North when Jeremy Corbyn retires. 2022 locals: Labour 52%, Green 29%. Highbury Green strength > Dalston, Hackney Downs. If there were no Hillrise independents? Labour 1000, Green 950, LD 350. Something like that, narrow Labour hold. Islington Greens did well in 2022. Well, in the north seat anyway. For Stokey, Greens gain with 40%+. 10% lead over Labour or higher. North East GLA falls in 2028. Holborn has some Green Party potential. Wait for Kentish Town South by-election. Andrew Feinstein - a flash in the pan. Without him, Greens would've got 30%+. |
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Post by jakegb on Aug 18, 2024 18:28:58 GMT
Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. If Abbott retires and gets replaced with some generic centrist Labour candidate then I'd agree, but I think Abbott has enough personal vote to keep the seat as long as she wants. The Labour vote here (60%) was the second-strongest Labour achieved anywhere in London. Some seats I think are worth watching out for are the ones where the Greens performed respectably, Labour performed poorly, and there was a sizeable Gaza independent vote- the Greens surely have a chance of capturing those voters. But the issue for the Greens in London now is that they don't have a single obvious target seat- they have around 15 reasonable but difficult prospects. All fair points there - I do agree that Abbott standing/stepping down will have a knock on effect on whether or not they can seize the seat. This year, the Greens' four main targets were on the money, with some extraordinary swings in their two rural seats. Aided - of course - by the seismic fall in the Tories' popularity. Difficult - at this stage - to know how far Labour will fall in popularity over the course of the parliament, particularly in their heartland seats from the Corbyn era. But judging by some of the extraordinary swings (across the spectrum) seen in 24, even the safest seats (some of which are in London) could see some upsets. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 18:42:19 GMT
What if Diane Abbott got deselected? Akehurst gets Hackney not North Durham?
I guess something like this result. Black voters shift Green en masse?
Green 35% (+27)
Labour 34% (-35)
Conservative 11% (-2)
Lib Dem 10% (+2)
Renew 5%
Reform 3%
Independent 1%
Loony 1%
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nyx
Non-Aligned
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Post by nyx on Aug 18, 2024 18:47:03 GMT
What if Diane Abbott got deselected? Akehurst got this seat not North Durham. I guess something like this result. Black voters shift Green en masse? Green 35% (+27)Labour 34% (-35) Conservative 11% (-2) Lib Dem 10% (+2) Renew 5% Reform 3% Independent 1% Loony 1% If she had been deselected, she'd have probably run for reelection as an independent and won. Green vote would probably have been squeezed similarly to in Islington North. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 18:47:40 GMT
What if Diane Abbott got deselected? Akehurst got this seat not North Durham. I guess something like this result. Black voters shift Green en masse? Green 35% (+27)Labour 34% (-35) Conservative 11% (-2) Lib Dem 10% (+2) Renew 5% Reform 3% Independent 1% Loony 1% If she had been deselected, she'd have probably run for reelection as an independent and won. Green vote would probably have been squeezed similarly to in Islington North. Similar result to Jeremy Corbyn's then. Hilarious if Akehurst stood and lost. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 19, 2024 18:59:01 GMT
Mete Coban not Akehust would've been the candidate not Akhurst. Coban taking the Deputy Mayor position is very much the consolation prize for not being able to be the candidate.
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right
Conservative
Posts: 18,761
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Post by right on Sept 9, 2024 7:52:42 GMT
What if Diane Abbott got deselected? Akehurst got this seat not North Durham. I guess something like this result. Black voters shift Green en masse? Green 35% (+27)Labour 34% (-35) Conservative 11% (-2) Lib Dem 10% (+2) Renew 5% Reform 3% Independent 1% Loony 1% If she had been deselected, she'd have probably run for reelection as an independent and won. Green vote would probably have been squeezed similarly to in Islington North. Yes, I don't see how the Greens would have displaced her as the protest vote destination. I don't think her personal vote was as high as Corbyn's and she's certainly not got the same appetite for the stump so Labour may have squeaked this. I also suspect Akehurst prefers a seat he has more chance of winning in to just one where he used to be active in and would have stayed with Durham. |
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 10:07:43 GMT
Mete Coban not Akehust would've been the candidate not Akhurst. Coban taking the Deputy Mayor position is very much the consolation prize for not being able to be the candidate.Greens will win his old seat. You heard it here first lol. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 9, 2024 10:16:04 GMT
Yes, there is no way that Akehurst would have been the Labour candidate here in any circumstances.
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 20:21:13 GMT
Yes, there is no way that Akehurst would have been the Labour candidate here in any circumstances. The debate would have been good. |
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