right
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Post by right on Aug 5, 2024 5:13:38 GMT
She seemed fine at the pre-election rally at the Town Hall. I'm biased because I like her and when I lived in Hackney, everyone I spoke to about her stewardship of the seat rated her highly. I hope she's OK. Talk to Luke Akehurst, he has his own opinions and plenty of friends in that CLP Durham doesn't look like his first choice |
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Post by sanders on Aug 5, 2024 5:18:10 GMT
She seemed fine at the pre-election rally at the Town Hall. I'm biased because I like her and when I lived in Hackney, everyone I spoke to about her stewardship of the seat rated her highly. I hope she's OK. Talk to Luke Akehurst, he has his own opinions and plenty of friends in that CLP Durham doesn't look like his first choice Fair enough, but he was a Hackney Councillor a long time ago now. I don’t think he would dare to chicken run to Hackney now he has an ostensibly plum berth in the north east. Who knows? I could see Streeting going for Hackney North & Stoke Newington because his win in Ilford was dicey as fuck - I have no evidence of that speculation though I do not imagine Wes will go for a fifth term as Ilford North MP. |
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right
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Post by right on Aug 5, 2024 5:27:13 GMT
Talk to Luke Akehurst, he has his own opinions and plenty of friends in that CLP Durham doesn't look like his first choice Fair enough, but he was a Hackney Councillor a long time ago now. I don’t think he would dare to chicken run to Hackney now he has an ostensibly plum berth in the north east. Who knows? I could see Streeting going for Hackney North & Stoke Newington because his win in Ilford was dicey as fuck - I have no evidence of that speculation though I do not imagine Wes will go for a fifth term as Ilford North MP. Chicken runs would cause havoc, and Labour's been better at preventing them since at least the 1990s. For that matter between the elections between and including 2001 and 2019 even the Tories were usually good at stopping them - Labour's leader's office will almost certainly be rather weaker by the next general election but not that catastrophically. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 5, 2024 5:35:23 GMT
Fair enough, but he was a Hackney Councillor a long time ago now. I don’t think he would dare to chicken run to Hackney now he has an ostensibly plum berth in the north east. Who knows? I could see Streeting going for Hackney North & Stoke Newington because his win in Ilford was dicey as fuck - I have no evidence of that speculation though I do not imagine Wes will go for a fifth term as Ilford North MP. Chicken runs would cause havoc, and Labour's been better at preventing them since at least the 1990s. For that matter between the elections between and including 2001 and 2019 even the Tories were usually good at stopping them - Labour's leader's office will almost certainly be rather weaker by the next general election but not that catastrophically. Squeaky bum time for Streeting then? |
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right
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Post by right on Aug 5, 2024 6:19:55 GMT
Chicken runs would cause havoc, and Labour's been better at preventing them since at least the 1990s. For that matter between the elections between and including 2001 and 2019 even the Tories were usually good at stopping them - Labour's leader's office will almost certainly be rather weaker by the next general election but not that catastrophically. Squeaky bum time for Streeting then? The jihadist tide will ebb However he may be wise to quietly work against further Muslim immigration |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 5, 2024 9:04:09 GMT
Streeting will believe last month's result was an aberration and he can increase his majority next time, I have very little doubt of that.
Whatever else you say about the guy (and I certainly have on occasion) self-belief is not exactly a quality that he is deficient in.
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right
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Post by right on Aug 5, 2024 9:12:04 GMT
Streeting will believe last month's result was an aberration and he can increase his majority next time, I have very little doubt of that. Whatever else you say about the guy (and I certainly have on occasion) self-belief is not exactly a quality that he is deficient in. He's also got one of the best operations in London. He would have been out if he hadn't. The Jihadis will need to keep united and the Middle East will need to keep salient. |
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aargauer
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Post by aargauer on Aug 5, 2024 9:48:47 GMT
Or more likely the heat pump. No member of the Green Party could possibly throw a kitchen sink let alone a heat pump as a tofu based diet wouldn't give them the physical strength required At 6'2" and 14 stone people tend to avoid these jokes when I'm around! |
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nodealbrexiteer
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Aug 5, 2024 9:50:12 GMT
No member of the Green Party could possibly throw a kitchen sink let alone a heat pump as a tofu based diet wouldn't give them the physical strength required At 6'2" and 14 stone people tend to avoid these jokes when I'm around! Fortunately you're not a Green! |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 5, 2024 11:52:03 GMT
Just because she’s old and ill doesn’t mean she’s very old or exceptionally ill. Experience over the last four decades shows that by-elections are caused by the deaths of MPs in their 40s 50s and 60s just as much as those in their 70s or 80s. Well that makes sense because you’d have thought most would’ve retired by their seventies or eighties, look at this parliament in particular I have checked the by-elections of the modern era, i.e. since I started following parliamentary by-elections (i.e. since the beginning of 1983). 86 parliamentary by-elections were caused by the death of the MP. For these purposes, I have included the death of Marsha Singh (Bradford West, 2012) because his death (four months after he resigned due to ill-health) would have resulted in a by-election “anyway”, even if he hadn’t resigned. I have not included the deaths of MPs whose seats were vacant at the time of dissolution and whose deaths did not cause by-elections, because I am not certain that I have got a full definitive list of all of those in the time period covered. Of those 86 deaths, The average age of death was 60. 2 were aged 80 something 15 were 70 something 28 were 60 something 28 were 50 something 12 were 40 something 1 was in his 30s. 10 of the 86 deaths were caused by non-natural causes (murder, accident, suicide). The average age of death of those ten was 52; if you exclude those as outliers from the statistics, then the average age of death of the remaining 76 was 61. |
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right
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Post by right on Aug 5, 2024 11:57:51 GMT
Well that makes sense because you’d have thought most would’ve retired by their seventies or eighties, look at this parliament in particular I have checked the by-elections of the modern era, i.e. since I started following parliamentary by-elections (i.e. since the beginning of 1983). 86 parliamentary by-elections were caused by the death of the MP. For these purposes, I have included the death of Marsha Singh (Bradford West, 2012) because his death (four momths after he resigned due to ill-health) would have resulted in a by-election “anyway”, even if he hadn’t resigned. I have not included the deaths of MPs whose seats were vacant at the time of dissolution and whose deaths did not cause by-elections, because I am not certain that I have got a full definitive list of all of those in the time period covered. Of those 86 deaths, The average age of death was 60. 2 were aged 80 something 15 were 70 something 28 were 60 something 28 were 50 something 12 were 40 something 1 was in his 30s. 10 of the 86 deaths were caused by non-natural causes (murder, accident, suicide). The average age of death of those ten was 52; if you exclude those as outliers from the statistics, then the average age of death of the remaining 76 was 61. It doesn't mean a thing unless you have the median age of Parliament at the time. If there are just fewer MPs in their 70s then it's still significant if they're dying in a higher proportion. However with aging you're going to have warnings that you are declining and have the ability to quietly step down, and very few MPs had the public humiliation to get them out of the way for a Starm trooper that Abbott did. |
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Post by elinorhelyn on Aug 5, 2024 13:54:24 GMT
Well that makes sense because you’d have thought most would’ve retired by their seventies or eighties, look at this parliament in particular I have checked the by-elections of the modern era, i.e. since I started following parliamentary by-elections (i.e. since the beginning of 1983). 86 parliamentary by-elections were caused by the death of the MP. For these purposes, I have included the death of Marsha Singh (Bradford West, 2012) because his death (four months after he resigned due to ill-health) would have resulted in a by-election “anyway”, even if he hadn’t resigned. I have not included the deaths of MPs whose seats were vacant at the time of dissolution and whose deaths did not cause by-elections, because I am not certain that I have got a full definitive list of all of those in the time period covered. Of those 86 deaths, The average age of death was 60. 2 were aged 80 something 15 were 70 something 28 were 60 something 28 were 50 something 12 were 40 something 1 was in his 30s. 10 of the 86 deaths were caused by non-natural causes (murder, accident, suicide). The average age of death of those ten was 52; if you exclude those as outliers from the statistics, then the average age of death of the remaining 76 was 61. What would John Stonehouse count as? |
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Post by johnloony on Aug 5, 2024 14:03:41 GMT
I have checked the by-elections of the modern era, i.e. since I started following parliamentary by-elections (i.e. since the beginning of 1983). 86 parliamentary by-elections were caused by the death of the MP. For these purposes, I have included the death of Marsha Singh (Bradford West, 2012) because his death (four months after he resigned due to ill-health) would have resulted in a by-election “anyway”, even if he hadn’t resigned. I have not included the deaths of MPs whose seats were vacant at the time of dissolution and whose deaths did not cause by-elections, because I am not certain that I have got a full definitive list of all of those in the time period covered. Of those 86 deaths, The average age of death was 60. 2 were aged 80 something 15 were 70 something 28 were 60 something 28 were 50 something 12 were 40 something 1 was in his 30s. 10 of the 86 deaths were caused by non-natural causes (murder, accident, suicide). The average age of death of those ten was 52; if you exclude those as outliers from the statistics, then the average age of death of the remaining 76 was 61. What would John Stonehouse count as? John Stonehouse would count as an MP who caused a by-election by resigning. His age at death many years later is irrelevant. |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 8:17:16 GMT
Stoke Newington Green result worth watching.
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Post by jakegb on Aug 18, 2024 9:01:56 GMT
Stoke Newington Green result worth watching. Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. |
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2024 9:09:43 GMT
I think that it was the Greens' second-largest share of the vote nationally in the 1997 general election. Their candidate at the time was a Stoke Newington councillor. He now lives in the West Country. Used to know him as his wife & my wife were old friends
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 18, 2024 9:27:49 GMT
Stoke Newington Green result worth watching. Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. There hasn't been a non Labour MP for Stoke Newington since 1945 when Sir George Jones lost to Labour's David Weizman, having held the seat since 1918 with a year's break 1923-4.
Hackney North had also been a Tory/Unionist banker until 1945, with a similar interruption in 1923-4. The swing in 1945 was 23%, although the writing had already been on the wall in 1935 when Labour had managed a 17% swing.
Incidentally there are some very interesting candidates from all parties standing in these seats, particularly the Liberals Ernest Spero (Stoke Newington MP 1923-4) and Doreen Gorsky. Gorsky went on to stand in Swindon, Bristol South East (by election) and Carlisle .
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 18, 2024 9:47:06 GMT
I think that it was the Greens' second-largest share of the vote nationally in the 1997 general election. Their candidate at the time was a Stoke Newington councillor. He now lives in the West Country. Used to know him as his wife & my wife were old friends Hackney has one of the longest Green party histories in the country, as the first public meeting using the Green party name was held at Hackney Town Hall in 1983, before the Ecology party had even officially changed its name. It was organised by David Fitzpatrick who was the parliamentary candidate in 1983(Ecology) and 1987 (Green). |
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Post by sanders on Aug 18, 2024 10:23:04 GMT
Greens got 36.5% to Labour's 45.3% in Stoke Newington in the 2023 Mayoral election based on my estimates applying UNS to 2022 data from andrewteale . |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2024 11:28:22 GMT
Stoke Newington Green result worth watching. Indeed - Abbott's % majority is very close to Debbonaire's in Bristol West (2019). Different seats, different areas, but definitely some similarities between both places- this looks to be the Greens' best target in London. One to watch in the future. 2029 will also be a different election as well, though. Labour are unlikely to focus so exclusively on a single fairly small segment of the electorate again. |
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